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#27 - JRL 9283 - JRL Home
From: Murray Feshbach <mmjfeshbach@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: Steyn article from The Australian, JRL#9282.
Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005

A quick note re Steyn article in today's JRL #9282:

Yesterday I spotted this article via Google, and wrote a very brief note to Mr. Steyn regarding the overall article and a correction that I thought useful for him.

That is, the mortality figures he uses for HIV/AIDS deaths in "2010" are those for 2020 according to what I believe is his use of the World Bank projections. For 2010, they should be (if correctly projected) 72,000 in the best case scenario and 120,000 in the worst case; for 2020, the projections are 250,000 and 650,000 (rounded), respectively.

The projected total population for 2015 is a bit more pessimistic than a "quick and dirty" projection if one uses an average of decline of 750,000, or 7.5 million over the 10-year period from the end of this year. . Thus in 2015, the figure would be 142.8 million in September 2005 minus 7.5 million over the period until 2015, or 135.3, not 130.0 million. Some other quibbles but not worth taking up space for the moment.