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Moscow Times
August 16, 2005
Signs of a 3rd Term Campaign
By Anatoly Medetsky
Staff Writer

Exactly a week after President Vladimir Putin hinted that he would like to serve a third term if the Constitution permitted it, a lawmaker in the Far East submitted a proposal to amend the Constitution.

Three days later, a lawmaker on the other side of the country, in St. Petersburg, offered a constitutional amendment of his own.

A senior Federation Council senator said the proposals reflected public sentiment and could prompt changes to the Constitution.

A behind-the-scenes campaign appears to be revving up to make sure that Putin remains in office beyond 2008. As the clock slowly ticks down on Putin's final term, the chorus of support for a constitutional amendment could swell and help Putin's retinue to persuade the president that he should stay on, political analysts said.

Asked by a reporter in Finland on Aug. 2 whether he would like to continue as president after 2008, Putin replied, "Maybe I would have liked to, but the Constitution does not allow it."

"I'm of the opinion," Putin added, "that the most important issue in Russia now is stability, and the only way to achieve this is by respecting the Constitution."

He spoke at a news conference after meeting with Finnish President Tarja Halonen.

In what analysts called a direct reaction to Putin's remarks, Primorye legislator Adam Imadayev on Aug. 9 proposed that regional lawmakers introduce a bill that would scrap Part 3 of Article 81 of the Constitution -- the provision that limits a president to two consecutive terms.

St. Petersburg legislator Igor Rimmer then proposed on Friday that city lawmakers consider an amendment that would allow a president to serve three consecutive terms. Rimmer argued that the amendment would not be a step back for democracy and would allow Putin to carry on with his reforms.

The proposed amendments would have to be approved on a regional level before they could move to the State Duma for consideration. At least one other regional lawmaker has lobbied for a constitutional amendment to extend Putin's term in recent months, but that proposal was quickly dismissed.

Putin has repeatedly spoken against amending the Constitution, but his most recent remarks could be interpreted as slightly more ambiguous, said Andrei Piontkovsky, an independent political analyst.

"It's another step in Putin's comments on the subject. This was the first time that the option was first mentioned in a positive context," he said.

"There has been strong pressure on Putin from his entourage to run for a third term, but he has strong hesitations," he said. "He understands the costs on an international level."

If Putin were to run under an amended Constitution, he would risk being likened to Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko and Uzbek President Islam Karimov, longtime leaders who have traded angry words with the West over democracy in their countries and the legitimacy of their regimes, Piontkovsky said.

Piontkovsky said the recent proposals appeared to have been orchestrated by the siloviki, a group of military and security officials who rode to power on Putin's coattails and want him to stay on.

But Dmitry Orlov, the director of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications, a think tank, said the regional legislators probably reacted to Putin's statements in Finland on their own. "They wished to reiterate their loyalty," he said.

Regardless of the motivation, the proposals mirror public opinion and, if they persist, they could cause the Constitution to be changed, Yury Sharandin, chairman of the Federation Council's Constitutional Law Committee, said last week. Sharandin cautioned, however, that allowing a president serve multiple terms would create "unnecessary political tension," Interfax reported.

Federation Council Deputy Speaker Svetlana Orlova agreed that popular support could allow Putin to stay on. "A third presidential term depends on the will of the people," Orlova said last week, Interfax reported.

Authorities could organize a referendum, "and if people speak in support of a third presidential term ... amendments could be introduced to the Constitution of the Russian Federation," she said.

Piontkovsky said a national referendum was more complicated than merely passing a law to amend the Constitution. More than half of all registered voters -- not just half of those who vote -- would have to approve of a constitutional amendment to make it legally binding, he said.

A law to amend the Constitution would have to muster two-thirds the vote in the Kremlin-controlled State Duma and three-fourths of the vote in the compliant Federation Council. A constitutional amendment must also be approved by at least two-thirds of the country's regional legislatures, and the legislatures have up to one year to consider such amendments.