Date: Fri, 10 Jun 2005
From: James Beadle <jamesdbeadle@yahoo.co.uk>
Subject: Kasyanov: A Viable Contender
Boris Kagarlitsky of the Globalisation Institute raised a taboo subject in an opinion column in the Moscow Times yesterday (Putin's Phantom Successor). I have long been mulling the issue, and clearly am not alone in wondering whether former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, rather than being brutally wiped out as a competitor, might be embraced as a successor.
However, as much as I agree with Kagarlitsky's considering this point, I disagree in my analysis of the situation. First, I view Kasyanov as significantly politically different from Putin, if not in his goals then at least in his delivery. It seems ironic today that the primary reason quoted for Kasanyov's dismissal was the slowing of the reform train. Second, if there is a weakness to the theory, I see it as being former PM's non-security background. Putting Kasyanov forward as the next president would be an audacious leap toward a real capitalist democracy; few seem to believe that is current administration's goal.
It may be a dream too far, not least given my current pessimism about the Russia tale. Never expecting my, or any other commentator's advise to be applied to reality, I do at least hope for an occasional air of intelligence. Russia this year, by contrast, continues to resemble a Latin American novella, with an audience of well wishers yelling the blinding obvious to the unhearing cast: "behind you!" "it's a trap!" "he's lying!"
Novellas would instantly lose their appeal if they starred intelligent, logical-thinking characters. Russia, though, would go through the roof: audiences would flock, drawn by their already fading Cold War fascination; businesses would instantly begin spreading know-how and economic benefit; and even the Olympic bid would gain some credibility.
But what are the chances of Putin selecting a non-FSB official to run the country? His demeanour and behaviour tell us that his circle of trust is very small and the relentless campaign billing him as a dictator stands against the idea, but an equally convincing ¬ if not apparent ¬ scope of evidence weighs in favour.
As I have several times noted, Putin backed away from the Ukraine crisis far sooner than credited. His declaration that he would accept any democratically elected president came relatively early, admittedly after a series of failed efforts to keep Yushchenko out, but notably before the tent city had shown its tenacity.
More importantly, Putin has repeatedly cited the democratic transfer of power to his successor as a primary goal. True, we might question his grasp of democracy, along with his grasp of market values (in his second term, the president has developed a profound ability to say the right thing, then do the opposite), but we shouldn't deny the possibility.
To the broader investment market at least, Kasyanov has atoned for any 90s era corruption with his proactive, reform orientated prime ministerial term. Certainly his selection would restore confidence and credibility, to both the country and its political arena.
Yet Kasyanov's greatest hurdle might be his opposition to the Yukos affair. Assuming that Putin remains belligerently committed to this horrendous situation, and would not be prepared to see his successor right a few senseless wrongs, Kasyanov would need to change sides. Alternatively, it may suit Putin to know there is a way out of the fix that doesn't cost him in pride, or the sivoliki may really believe they could control him.
Following Khodorkovsky's sentencing, I wrote a piece dreaming about Putin's retirement, citing his current inability to manage the democracy he heads. Ultimately, I canned the article as being too negative, not least in the light of my previous bullish story. But the ideas are not contradictory; in many ways Putin has done an excellent job of bringing stability and preparing the country, it may simply require fresh blood to move things forward. Kasyanov is not only the sole contender, he is perhaps the only figure currently up to the job.