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#23 - JRL 9129 - JRL Home
Subject: Democratizing or Demonizing
Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2005 1
From: "Hayk Sargsyan" <hsargsyan@cdi.org>

Democratizing or Demonizing?
By Hayk Sargsyan of the Center for Defense Information
For Russia Profile
www.russiaprofile.org

Are Russians concerned about democracy?

Through the eyes of ruling elites

It may seem surprising to find out that democracy issue ranks the 19th among the most important issues concerning ordinary Russians as Romir monitoring reports. Indeed, there is an explanation for that.

While people accept that Russia is on its way to economic development their main concerns still deal with the problem of poverty, unemployment, corruption, terrorism and the war in Chechnya.

According to Levada center’s recent poll only 25 percent of Russians expressed their approval of the government. As Gosduma deputy Mikhail Zadornov commented at the recent panel discussion titled “Unraveling Putin’s Russia: An Insider’s View” organized by the Center for Defense Information, in Washington, D.C., the reasons include uncertainty, serious mistakes, huge social differentiations and the fact that the hopes of the people were not realized.

The recent unsuccessful attempt of the government to carry out the monetization of benefits is also a reason for people’s mistrust of the government. The gap between ten percent of the poorest and ten percent of the richest has increased from 13.5 times up to 14.5 times. The previous reforms did not provide equal redistribution that’s why people think that future reforms may be possible damage and do not trust the government.

“Currently, there are no plans and long term developed strategies for the economic development in Russia -with the exception of defense industry,” added Zadornov.

However, describing macro-economic indicators Zadornov mentioned that the economic growth amounted up to seven percent of GDP last year. “It is very good for any country. We have five years of budget surplus, which last year made up 4.4% of GDP. With the current oil and gas prices we can expect strong balance of payment. We can also see ten percent growth of private consumption not only in Moscow but also in other big cities. There is a boom of housing market, retail trade etc. Foreign direct investments have increased by forty percent last year, which amounted 4.4 billion dollars. This is a very good indicator for Russia.”

The real issue for Russian government is to change the way people perceive the government. By allowing citizens to actively participate in the political process of the making of their own country the government may as well win the trust of their citizens. This is only possible by establishing true democratic values and principles. As another participant of the panel discussion Gosduma deputy, Konstantin Kosachyov pointed out, “I am sure that every country needs and deserves democracy… but democracy that is not implanted from the outside. The countries should be able to grow to it.”

Despite of very harsh announcement of President Putin during his state of the union speech addressed against the Western NGOs operating in Russia the pressure against them did not follow. “ The number of the think tanks are growing gradually in Russia. And the government is starting to listen to their advice. The role of these institutions is to create strategies in security and foreign policy areas. I think, Russia now does not need Western money to finance these think tanks,” said Zadornov.

“Yes we have several think tanks in Russia and their number is growing. But unfortunately it is not in Russian tradition to listen to civil society. The idea of creating a Public Chamber in Russia was a good one and we will see how it works in practice very soon,” adds Kosachyov.

Russia and CIS

There is also a problem of Russia’s relationship with CIS countries. This became particularly evident after the recent developments in Georgia, Ukraine, and recently Kirgizstan. Kosachyov thinks that the reason of revolutions in these countries is the result of Russia’s passive policies towards the CIS countries. Particularly, he stresses the need for Russia to work with the ordinary people and through them pressure the elites. He thinks that Russia can no longer blindly rely on the common history, a common language and a common border with other former Soviet republics and cannot build a relationship from that vantage point. Instead, it can offer three things to other former Soviet republics: market to sell their products, a place to find a job, and a source of cheep natural resources. “Now Russia needs more pragmatic approach. It should use trade, immigration and cultural relations with other former Soviet republics. We will probably see change in Russian policy toward CIS countries very soon,” added Zadornov.

The War of Chechnya

Reflecting on the question of the war on Chechnya Kosachyov mentioned-Russia has tried three times to negotiate with Chechnya. First time in 1991-1992 when about 200 thousands of Russians left Chechnya Moscow tried to negotiate with Dudaev. The second time in 1997 there were Khosavyurt negotiations when Maskhadov actually was given the opportunity to govern Chechnya, actually an independent state by that time. Maskhadov even received financial support and weapons from Moscow, and ultimately it ended with the attempt to invade Dagestan by Islamic fundamentalists. The third attempt was made when Moscow made an agreement with Kadirov.

What is important today is to differentiate between radical forces and regular people in Chechnya. According to a very credible recent research only about 10 percent of Chechens want independence from Russia; 90 percent prefer to live in Russia. But even these people due to all terrible things that happened in Chechnya seek for revenge. Russia should be more generous with Chechnya, especially in economic terms. So people know that it is worth to live in Russia.

Freedom of the Press

As Andrei Zolotov, editor of Russia Profile Magazine and adviser to the General Director of “Novosti” Russian News and Information Agency commented in the last panel discussion held in Georgetown University, “In Russia there are many TV channels that are actually not public but government run. That does not mean that they are awful and boring. People watch it for the entertainment. However, media is always into someone’s hands. It does not mean that people who want to find alternative information cannot find it. There are islands of decency among the government run newspapers. Few people know that in the provinces there are some regions that have up to 12 available TV stations and some of them are even better than the central public channels. On the other hand, the demand of quality newspapers and media is very low.”

On the question of possible revolution in Russia Zadornov joked that even three years is too long for making predictions on Russian policy. “The issue of what will happen in 2008 should be discussed in 2007,” he said.

As Zolotov added, “I believe that people in Russia got the immunity to revolution. I don’t think that some kind of orange revolution is possible in Russia because unlike in Ukraine and Georgia Russia’s youth is politically very passive. But I think people in Kremlin are very concerned about this. In any case, I don’t see any immediate challenge to the Kremlin.

Conclusion

Despite the recent fears of the West regarding the democratization process in Russia, the West found Russia very cooperative in the foreign policy issues. As Zadornov commented, “We are very cooperative on security issues. Of course, Russia has its own concerns regarding issues such as US withdrawal from Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, theory of preemptive strike and others.

“At the same time there are many obstacles on the side of the West including restrictions for Russian products in the foreign markets, the Jackson-Venick amendment. So there are some issues that should be solved not by Russia, but by the West,” said Kosachyov. He later also added, “Sometimes people in the West adopt the following approach that if we cannot democratize Russia, lets demonize it. However, Russia is developing and its direction is right.