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RIA Novosti
April 14, 2005
PUTIN'S THIRD TERM: MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING

MOSCOW, (RIA Novosti political commentator Yuri Filipov)

During an April 11 meeting in Hannover with the heads of various Russian and German media, Vladimir Putin said the Russian Constitution did not allow anyone to be elected president for a third consecutive term, and because he did not intend to amend the constitution, he would not run for the presidency in 2008. However, there is nothing to stop him from putting his candidature forward after the next term or two, even though Putin said he was not certain that he would want to do it.

What is sensational about his statement? There is the constitution, and the president who has stated categorically his determination to maintain the former's provisions, especially when it comes to functioning of the major institutions of power: the president, parliament, and government.

However, when the subject in focus is Russia, its president and constitution, many analysts attempt to dig deep and uncover something. Putin had to reaffirm that there was nothing to find even after his aides Vladislav Surkov and Igor Shuvalov had given clear answers to questions about potential constitutional amendments and the establishment of a parliamentary republic, empowering the prime minister with additional authority (there had been rumors that the incumbent president might occupy this post from 2008 until 2012). They insisted that the constitution would remain intact and the state structure that has been developed for the last few years could not be demolished. The institution of the president is the foundation of the modern Russian state. If the foundation of this institution is destroyed through constitutional amendments designed to satisfy the interests of a certain individual, the entire architecture will come crashing down.

Naturally, the president did not go to the Hannover Trade Fair to share his views on the hypothetical and clearly unconstitutional "third term" with his hosts. Had it been the main goal of the trip and had it been designed to capture the global community's attention, Putin would have made the statement to a broad audience rather than to a dozen German and Russian journalists.

In reality, the main goal of the trip was to promote the Russian economy's integration into the European economy. In that respect, any mention of a "third term," extending the presidential term or transforming his authority, or constitutional amendments was tantamount to tarnishing the image of the Russia's economy's resources, which the West is eying with undisguised lust. Putin was basically forced to retort in frustration: How long are you going to pester me about this third term?

The theories about the third term and extending the president's powers are known to be spread by officials who have climbed to high state positions primarily thanks to Putin. Their basic train of thought is "a third term for Putin means a third term for me." It is a common conviction not only among careerists and time-servers alike with microscopic political ratings, but also talented professionals who are not insured against personnel changes should there be changes at the top.

As a result, the real questions that must be addressed to the president and his aides are "What is going to happen in 2008 to the system of state power that has been built and modernized during the rule of the incumbent president? To what extent will the political course and personnel policy be maintained and using which mechanisms?"

These are really interesting questions.