#17 - JRL 9021 - JRL Home
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005
From: James Beadle <jamesdbeadle@yahoo.co.uk>
Subject: Putin and the future of Russia

The end of the president's teflon coating?

Whenever I visit the UK, as I recently have, I inevitably get to see that nation’s leader on television. Nearing the end of his second term, and passed the point at which he reputedly promised to stand down, Tony Blair paints a curious picture: He continues to present himself as a decent-hearted bloke, but no longer wields the authority of a man serving his people. The New Labour leader cuts the harder image of a leader absorbed in his own power and determined to see his plans through to their gritty conclusion. With no credible opposition, Blair will easily win a third term and the chance to push on for his vision of public good.

As much as the British leader might resent it, not least given the current dismal state of diplomatic relations, the political picture in Russia is disturbingly similar. Once the saviour of his people and hero of the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin enjoys no real opposition and the lingering reputation (domestically at least) of being a good-hearted politician. Like Mr. Blair, he faces some serious political hurdles over the coming three years, and shows every sign of a leader powerful enough to put his conviction ahead of his popularity.

With 2004 so widely seen as a turning point in Russia’s post-Communist development, it is vital that we understand what its all-powerful, but already fading leader has in mind. Russia remains a heavily armed country, such that the risk of anarchy, should he misjudge his supremacy, is of concern to us all.

Understanding Mr. Putin’s vision is made all the more difficult by the man’s own whimsical actions, democratic champion one day, authoritarian tsar the next, his words and behaviour often contradict one another.

However, few dispute that a powerful Russia remains the final objective, and although the path may have strayed notably, there remains hope that it might be achieved in a fair and possibly even democratic manner. Putin inherited an abominable mess in 1999, not just a failed empire, but one that had suffered ten years of systematic abuse at every level.

Given the utter failings of democracy to achieve even the most basic rule of fairness, rationality or practicality, it should be little surprise to anyone that Putin has had to cut so deeply to remove the rotting flesh. His moves to centralise control, over the media, business and politics have been a necessary evil.

The west is right to criticise his activities ­ to ignore them would be to surrender influence and risk exposing the world to any level of imaginable abuse. Such a concentration of power has rarely proved beneficial. Logical or not, the Putin administration can expect to be watched all the more closely as it strives to turn the rusting, sinking motherland into calmer, cleaner waters.

And as it does so, the risk of it sinking disastrously can only grow: Throughout his euphoric and highly productive first term, Putin successfully and often fairly deflected failures onto those around him. By increasing his own control, however, the president is choosing to strip off his own teflon shell. By now there are few people left to blame, and the impression is growing that he has cut deep enough into an already ailing patient.

The next crisis will hit Putin harder than ever. Russia can ill afford social disruption while the president holds all the cards. A simple series of clear statements and/or actions would steady the ship, but transparency is not a Kremlin strength. Putin has set Russia on a course, it would be nice if he would tell us where we are going, but like it or not, we are all along for the ride. Let us hope he gets us there in one piece.