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#23 - JRL 9016 - JRL Home
HAS RUSSIA LOST UKRAINE?

MOSCOW, January 14 (RIA Novosti) - The victory of Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko at the presidential elections is largely seen in Ukraine, Russia and the West as Russia's foreign policy biggest reverse of the past few years, Alexei Arbatov, head of the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences, says in an article published by Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

Preoccupied with the consolidation of the system (of manageable democracy) inside Russia and its attempts to determine its role in the CIS countries, the West was determined to prevent Moscow's favorite from winning in Ukraine.

For Russia, the outcome of the elections was seen from the following viewpoint: would Ukraine remain with Russia as an unaccommodating but close geopolitical relative or opt for NATO and then for the European Union with all the ensuing economic, political, humanitarian and military consequences?

When Moscow failed to win the game with administrative leverage, as is frequently the practice inside Russia, Moscow faced a choice: to push Ukraine toward a forceful decision through the secession of its eastern and southern areas or to become reconciled with the defeat. The first option would have meant, apart from chaos and unpredictable consequences in Ukraine, the complete end to relations with the US and Europe. To give the Kremlin its due, it rejected this option, despite pressure from the overwhelming majority in parliament and the public opinion.

Strategically, despite all the deep historical ties with Russians, Ukraine's modern orientation is determined by the attraction of an economic and political model it sees in the east or in the west.

The transit of energy products is a too narrow base for the economic integration of such developed countries as Russia and Ukraine; moreover, there are no large investment projects for the domestic market of both countries and for exports.

Possibly, Moscow itself incurred damage as it tried to solve complex problems by the simple method of pushing through its protege. Therefore, considering that the existing problems must be resolved at quite a different level in the long-term perspective, Viktor Yanukovich's defeat is not perhaps such a great tragedy for Russia.