#12 - JRL 8023
Date: Mon, 19 Jan 2004
From: "Harley D. Balzer" <BalzerH@georgetown.edu>
Subject: Amending the Russian Constitution

I can understand that journalists resort to the shorthand formulation that Unified Russia's control of more than 300 seats in the Duma gives President Putin's team the option of amending the Russian Constitution. This is being invoked quite often with reference to a change to allow President Putin to remain President beyond 2008. When the same error shows up in communications from scholars who should know better, it is probably time for a reminder of just what the process of amending the Russian Constitution entails. The Duma is not empowered to change the Constitution on its own.

Article 81, Point 3 states that no one may hold the office of President for more than two terms in succession.

Article 136 of the Constitution states that Amendments to Chapters 3-8 of the Constitution (the Presidency is covered by Chapter 4) require the same procedures that pertain to adoption of federal constitutional laws, and that such changes take effect only after they are approved by two-thirds of the subjects of the Federation.

Federal Constitutional Laws are covered in Article 108. Point 2 stipulates that these laws require a 3/4 majority of the Federation Council and a 2/3 majority in the Duma. Something like 30 regional chief executives signed up for Unified Russia's Duma list. That is 1/3 of the executives of the subjects of the Federation. Assuming the executive designees vote as they are instructed, this translates into 1/6 of the Federation Council. Getting the additional votes for approval by 3/4 of the Council would require a fairly extensive process of bargaining and/or bribing. It could probably be done, but it is likely that the price in some regions would be fairly steep.

Getting 2/3 of the 89 regional legislatures to approve a change is not necessarily an insurmountable barrier. But it is a real one. Again, there would be some combination of political and economic costs involved.

Of course, if President Putin really does have a secret plan to impose dictatorship in Russia, he will get whatever majorities the constitutional change requires. But if his goals are somewhat more modest, the constitutional amendment process will require expending a lot of political capital.

A few other thoughts for the die-hard believers that Putin will inevitably seek a third term. The wording of Article 81 leaves open an individual serving more than two terms NOT in succession. No one has brought up the option that legally Putin could sit out a term and then run again. Or, to really stretch the issue, that someone could run for President in 2008, appoint Putin as Prime Minister, and then resign, essentially a repeat of 1999-2000. Technically, Putin would not be succeeding himself.