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#14 - JRL 8001
From: "Inna Rogatchi" <inna.rogatchi@rpc.inet.fi>
Subject: Fw: The NEW RUSSIAN DUMA : A PATHWAY TO NEO-STALINISM?
Date: Thu, 1 Jan 2004

The NEW RUSSIAN DUMA : A PATHWAY TO NEO-STALINISM?
By Inna Rogatchi
© Inna Rogatchi, Rogatchi Productions & Communications Ltd., 2003 First published in the leading Finnish KANAVA magazine, January 2004 Inna Rogatchi is a writer and political analyst specializing on the international politics and security. Currently she is writing the book on the new phenomena in the post-Soviet Russia.

Results of election to the new Russian Duma which is a prologue for an already written play called the presidential election 2004 has marked with clearness and determination the new direction of development of the Russian society and life for a sufficiently long time. Since now on, there is quite serious reason to believe that both Russians and outsiders would face not Russia they were hoping for, but the Slavonic version of the Chinese-like model, and quite possibly, neo-Stalinistic state.

The new Duma : a parody of a common-sense by design

A day after election in Russia, in December 2004, one of the political commentators has said : “I would feel much better if the results of the elections would be “simply” falsified. We used to it. Nobody expected any miracle of manifestation of the true democracy here. But if the Russian people really voted like that, it is a beginning of the way towards the real disaster”.

Quite non-typically for Russia, this time there was no big or prolonged public battles over allegedly fixed results of the election although everybody knew this precisely was the case. The failed parties, as Communists and two democratic parties, Yabloko lead by Grigory Yavlinsky, and SPS , Union of the Right Forces, all declared that the election were falsified; they carried on the alternative calculations of the electoral bulletins in many places, showing indeed the fixing of the voices there. Still, in spite of it there were no persistent further moves to challenge the results. Why? ­ many supporters of the lost parties are still asking. “Because we will not find the truth at home. Our only hope is in the Strasbourg court now, and we are still weighting the possibility to appeal there”, - is the answer by the leaders of the parties who were simply thrown away from the political scene. Once more in the Russian history, clearly wrong things are accepted by society as a routine. It seems to be their eternal receipt for self-inflicted disasters.

Talking about fixing the Duma election, a meeting in Moscow is returning to my mind over and over again. It was early September 2003, and everyone was busy as the crucial political season in the last decade of the Russian history has just started. My visavi was promising and highly placed functioner of the pro-Putin Jedinaja Rossija ( United Russia) party. He seemed to be genuinely worried: “Imagine : the Boss gave us the figure we will have to match at the election, and this is 37%. IT is so high that I cannot imagine how could we do it. Communists will surely get 22-25%, Zhirinovsky his usual 7-8%, democrats ( Yavlinsky and Chubais parties) from 15 to 20% together. It is a half of the Duma already. Then we have many other smaller parties that are overcoming the 5% electoral barrier surely; and there is a lot of independent candidates ( a half of the Russian Duma is elected by a single-mandated system). How on the earth can we meet such high demand of the Boss?..” In three months’ sharp from the time of that conversation, an official figure for the United Russia party’s result at the election was stated as 37,01%. What a thoughtful 0,01% -proof of ‘a fairness’ of the Russian election-2003. So now I am able to tell in a perfectly good faith that I knew the results of the elections three months before it was happening.

There are some other similar samples of this striking Kremlin ability to see through a glass bowl : Anatoly Chubais, leader of the SPS party and head of the Russian energy monopolist giant was summoned to the presidential administration two days before the election, and in a charming openness had been informed about the results of the elections. The miraculous Kremlin vision has been reported widely in the Russian media, but the public was either paralyzed, or was really unable to do much ­ as the system of conducting electoral votes, - or fixing it, if needed - is obviously efficient there.

The system known as Vybory ( Election) automatic managing system has been introduced in the middle of 1990s, and was run by the special FAPSI service which is an analogue of the American NSA agency, and is almost unchanged part of the former KGB. The system was used successfully for the Eltsyn’s re-election in 1996 when the talks within the Russian intelligence community were given credit to FAPSI and Vybory system for adding as much as up to 10% to Boris Nikolayevich. The last year FAPSI has been merged with another special service following the United Russia’s Boss president Putin’s order , and since than it is functioning under more strict control of the Putin’s St Petersburg team which has been very focused on the process of securing the coming elections, both parliamentary and the presidential ones. A dream-like 37,01% figure for the United Russia’s victory shows what ‘a right’ decision is a strict control is. Especially in Russia.

No wonder that according to the official post-election pools, only 20% of the Russian population is “amazed” by a shocking results of the Duma election. Protesting or not, the Russian people used to know their leaders well enough for not expecting miracles of truth from them. Even truly amazing fact aired after the election by the head of the Russia’s Central Electoral Commission on the 11% of extra votes produced in Ingushetija and Chechnja in comparison with the number of voters registered there, did not produce any wave. “Officials responsible for this will be punished”, - was a promise. But how about legitimacy of election in this case, in the first place ? Nobody even asked.

Whom and what the new Russian parliament is represent

After the radical surgeon operation performed by the Kremlin for re-doing the Russian parliament entirely, just four parties are represented there now : wounded Communists, elevated for a short while Zhirinovsky’s cohort , massive United Russia, and ‘a new cop in the town’ whose name is Rodina ( Motherland).

Political experts do know that Vladimir Putin always felt really bad about the existed Russian multi-party system he inherited from Boris Eltsyn. He was uncomfortable and unsure being surrounded by different entities, because he has not enough intellectual and educational capacities to handle it. There is no need to waste time discussing his pro-, or anti democracy sympathies or tendencies. The absence of any ‘pros’ is a day-clear, and always was for an adequate observers who simply knew the origin, biography, connections, and activities of the current Russian president, and who were not blinded by non-existing expressions in his eyes. Mr Putin’s understanding of the governing is based on the essential for his personal skills simplistic basic, and by thus it demands diminishing the number of political parties up to its possible limits which is two, under the circumstances. He would prefer one, of course, as it is in China, whose current model and realities are corresponds to his vision the most, but Russia is much less Asian place, both mentally and financially, for so sharp turns. All political parties in the Putin’s kingdom shall be center-focused, in order to cover the maximum number of heads of the population.

Political experts who are more surprised with the election’s results than the Russian people are, all are unanimous in the opinion that the new Duma is a giant step towards the new a’la Putin model of two-party political system in Russia : United Russia which is the ruling party now will be functioning as a center-right ,- there is almost nothing of right-wing present there but it shall be identified as such in comparison with new Kremlin favorite , Motherland block. Hybrid of humiliated and by this far more obedient Communists with dominating over them Motherland will play a center-left role ­ in this case, there is nothing center in that openly extreme nationalistic movement, but it shall fit the Putin’s model, that ‘s why their extremism would be regarded as “a small aberration”. Zhirinovsky’s party will be divided in between two right- and left- “center” parties eventually, according to the Kremlin plan.

Overcoming a magic 300 figure by United Russia means a major political change in entire Russian state system: it means that the party now has constitutional majority in the parliament which enables it not just vote any decision in its’ favor, but also to overcome any veto by either the Upper House of the parliament (Council of Federation), or president. It enables this one party to impeach president - which in case of Mr Putin and United Russia would not be the case; and also to change and amend the constitution ­ which most likely would be the case. First of all, most probably the amendments will concern the length of presidential term, and possibly, quantity of terms. If they will be successful in their agenda, apathy-like Russia and successfully self-delusioned the rest of the world are facing quite real probability to get Vladimir Putin as leader of Russia for much longer term than everyone expected.

* * * The biggest trick of this now ruling party United Russia is its substance which is none. The party, then called Unity, has been formed out from nothing just four years ago, couple of months before the previous elections in 1999. The father of the idea was a dubious businessman who has a megalomaniac idea to be a political guru Boris Berezovsky; the concrete executors ­ administration of the president. Vladimir Putin was then president-designee,- again, following the Berezovsky’s design for tailoring the power in Russia according to his personal needs and understanding. Now the huge country is paying dearly for his dangerous ideas. People who are still subsidized by Berezovsky would argue that it is him who is paying the highest price being forced to emigrate from his country. But, seriously, to live nicely in London having status of a political emigrant and being able to spend all his billions as he wishes, is not the same thing as to sit in the Russian prison being deprived of everything, and being seriously threatened with his life on a daily basic as Mikhail Khodorkovsky is who never played any political guru, and who openly supported democratic parties in Russia.

Berezovsky, thanks to whom Russia is ruled by a cruel mediocre KGB officer, had just one comment on the Khodorkovsky’s arrest : “It does not demand a big imagination, to sit behind the bars”. Easy to say, especially if even now, being projecting itself as punished pariah, to conduct a regular meetings in London with his business partners, Eltsyn’s daughter ever-active Tatjana Djachenko and close to the Kremlin oligarch Roman Abramovich. Both Berezovsky’s partners do have a very well working path back to the Kremlin nowadays, and this fact alone casts a lot of doubts on the Berezovsky’s sincerity when he is playing non-compromised “dissident” to the Kremlin. People like him never are in dissent with any real power. They just try to create another useful path to an ever-dreamed of another Ali-Baba’s caves.

By its origin and design, United Russia never had and still has not neither its original platform, nor program. Being created as pro-Putin’s party - because every self-respected leader must have his own party -, it always was a party of power does not matter who is in power. It resembles more and more the CPSU of the Soviet regime by both its function and shape : power-preserving vast amorphous ameba whose code of survival is its gray color. The grayish, the better. The young ambitious activists of United Russia were sharing their dissatisfaction with the party’s leadership : “ We do have a real problem with our leader, Boris Gryzlov. He is such of nobody; so pale figure; no leader at all. We must to replace him with somebody real worthy and articulated, and we are discussing it among ourselves, but what can you do when he is so close to the president, and is entrusted to lead the Duma ?..” This conversation about leading the new Duma had a place three months before the election took place.

With United Russia’s more than 300 seats in the parliament, the rest of it easily can go home and have a good nap for the coming four years. There will be no sensible debates, nor reasonable balance of power. The entire parliament activity has already become a joke in Russia for four coming years ahead. * * * By quite an irony, after more than decade since the collapse of communist totalitarian system, Communists has been made the only opposition party in the Putin’s parliament. They are wounded badly now, with the official results of the election that differs for at least 10% from all prognoses. For the first time in the memories of four generations of the Russians, the party has lost its dominant position in the society, and this fact alone is quite new reality there. Communists role in the new Russian parliament would be painful one as they always would be ridiculed by the massive majority of the two major pro-Putin’s parties with consolidated Zhirinovsky’s party. The most probable scenario for Russian Communists would be their re-subordination to the new leader, appointed by the president administration communist economist Sergey Glazjev who is co-chairman of Motherland block. Some political experts are predicting that Communists would be re-subordinated not just to the one of the Motherland’s leaders, but to the new nationalistic movement itself. It looks as the most logical developing in the Putin’s team’ strategic plan.

Another real surprise of the recent parliament elections is an imminent political death of Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Not many political analysts predicted it as Zhirinovsky is known for being useful and ever loyal Kremlin tool whosoever is occupying the place. Neither Zhirinovsky himself was expecting that the Kremlin will let him out of circulation after all sustained loyalty and many useful services. Zhirinovsky was the KGB product manufactured upon the request of the dying Soviet leadership for serving the collapsing governing elite. He served equally well late Gorbachev and Eltsyn. Being quite able politician, he did the same, even more efficiently for Putin during his first term, too. But there is a fundamental difference between Putin in his first term and Putin in the eve of his second term. In year 2000 a small character from a secondary KGB branch who was brought to the center of the political stage literally from nowhere and being literally nobody, had quite limited range of choices, and he had to use tools created by the others for the others.

By year 2004, being for four years on the top of the incredibly mighty powerful machine, this man has cleaned the table in front of him, with a definite purpose to play his own game using his own figures. A word “own” is a key word here. Unlikely almost all his predecessors, Putin does not play chess. It would be rather draughts. Primitivisation is one of the most serious dangerous tendencies in a long run for Russia lead by Putin and his team, as he recruits the members of the team from those personalities who are yet more mediocre than he is. Zhirinovsky, in his turn, is quite good chess player. Differently from the Western perception of him, Russian public is well aware that Zhirinovsky is quite experienced politician, fast, shrewd and very well informed. Putin does not need too well informed political leaders who are not from his stable. Besides, during the election campaign Zhirinovsky repeatedly went in an open harsh public clashes, up to the public boxing, with Motherland block’s representatives who are extreme Russian nationalists, and in comparison with whom even Zhirinovsky’s infamous public declarations sounds as a Russian version of mother Teresa’s speeches.

To clash with the president’s own creation turned to be the gravest mistake of veteran political agent-provocauter. Besides, the Kremlin simply does not need neither Zhirinovsky, nor his party any longer. It will be subdued to Motherland, and will merge with it eventually in a feasible process of the hostile take-over by the latter. * * * With Motherland block that has got a bit more than 9% of the votes, and has the tenth part of the seats in Duma, Russia is getting a very good chance to become the second Serbia under Miloshevich. As the results of the fresh Serbian election did show right now, extreme nationalism is returning back victoriously in the countries who have a strong historical inclinations to it, and who were not courageous enough to clean itself from this menace before it would be too late. Motherland block was created ­ again ­ from within presidential administration as recently as in the last Summer 2003, just several moths prior to the election. The idea of it was to create a counter-force to Communists whose position objectively was as strong as up to 22-25% . That’s why the Kremlin has come with an idea to place at the top of the political force an alternative communist, young economist with very old views, Sergey Glazjev. The initial idea was to weaken traditional Communist by disrupting its electorate, that’s all.

In a short while, however, president Putin has got a visitor, the man he knew and liked, Dmitry Rogozin who once was Putin’s special envoy on the Kaliningrad issue; the man who in capacity of the chairman of the Duma International Affairs Committee is producing a scandal after another while dealing with international organizations like the European Parliament, OSCE and others. Rogozin and Glazjev did know each other quite well since 1993 when they both were quite active through mid-1990 in far nationalistic Congress of the Russian Communities. Dmitry Rogozin has got the president’s personal blessing to enforce Motherland block, and since that moment the whole Kremlin adventure to disrupt communists by another handy party has been transformed into something drastically different.

Now on the mandate of this young organization the worst exemplars of old and quite compromised figures of extreme Russian nationalists has become “respectful” MPs ­ such as general Valentin Varennikov, one of the leaders of the last Soviet junta during the attempt of a coup d’etaut in August 1991; his brother-in-arms colonel Victor Alksnis; scandalously known nationalist Sergey Baburin; hard-core KGB general Nikolay Leonov; author of the most pro-fascist a’la Russe TV program Alexander Krutov, and many, many others. They are accompanied by the new generation of the extreme Russian nationalists ­ those who are known in the country as the Russian neo-nazis. For the very same racist activities people in many countries would face the court action, in nowadays Putin’s Russia not only they has become legitimatised, but intentionally were made legislators themselves. The only difference of Motherland block with a grass-root neo-nazis in Russia is that its leadership has been covered with a scientific titles, they are present themselves as doctors of science in different areas. Dr Irving is also a doctor of history; as doctor Mengele was doctor of medicine. Did it make any difference?..

To cover this particular side of Motherland block, its creators and their advisers and patrons did take care in order to prevent the party from accusations in its pro-fascist stand and orientation by inviting in it several decorated military figures; additionally to the Soviet general Varennikov, it is a former commander of the Russia paratroops general Gennady Shpak whose son died in the action in Chechnja. Still, the only argument the Motherland’s supporters produce against those who are justly qualify the party based on what it is stands for, is “how on the earth can one name generals Varennikov and Shpak pro-fascists like? They did fight for our country!..” But are not Mladich and Karadzich generals as well?

This slight cover and weak argument is not for a serious audience. And frankly, there is hardly anyone in Russia who is mislead on the real stand of Motherland block ­ their speeches are quite clear and presents their views in full. The real problem is that too many of the Russian people, especially those aged between 45 and 55, seems to share this stand. “We were waiting for somebody like you all those damned Eltsyn’s years!.. “, - I have heard the words addressed to the Motherland party’s top representatives in Moscow. As in many real dramas, nobody can cause a bigger trouble to people than their own members. The worst tragedies are always originated from within.

Mockery wrapped into a mockery

With his nicely tailored handy parliament, president Putin now is in a full swing’ preparations for his re-election in mid-March 2004. His administration is busier than ever ­ they are dividing roles in that farce. The Kremlin seems to be seriously pre-occupied with imposing a strict control in this ridiculous process.

Regarded as the “wasted material”, Vladimir Zhirinovsky was directly not recommended , to put it mildly, to run against the acting president. Poor Zhirinovsky was so shocked that he decided first that his party would not stand with its candidate at all. The same was the initial decision made by Communists who are deeply offended by the scale of cheating during the election. Neither of them were not permitted such a luxury : Mr Putin was risking to run in a company of himself, and his administration was doing its very best to prevent such a comedy. To help his close friend, acting head of the Upper House Sergey Mironov did rush with a statement on his readiness to run. Well, as the last resort, Putin and him will play Becket. Russian people still remember vividly that reality of absurd had been the essence of their life.

Faced with an unparallel pressure, Zhirinovsky’s party delegated the head of Zhirinovsky’s security to run for presidency ­ Zhirinovsky still have a sense of humor even in a desperate for him situations. Communists facing the same if not worse pressure, delegated someone they thought Putin would love to have as his loyal counter-part, Nikolay Kharitonov who publicly and with a over-pride announced his faithful services to the KGB during many years, and who is the main advocate for restoration of memorial to Felix Dzerzhinsky at its old place near the KGB headquarters at Lubjanka. Commenting his nomination, the leader of the communist party Gennady Zjuganov just mentioned that Kharitonov is “a true fighter and a beautiful man”. What that suppose to mean? ­ eyebrows were raised in the president administration. “ It is a challenge!” ­ the answer came from within collapsed Russian communists leadership.

Seemingly to avoid the same kind of challenge by another “beautiful” man, tall and representative by the Russian standards Dmitry Rogozin, who was very much volunteering to run, Motherland was warned by the administration of over-contributing into the Putin’s campaign. Trying not overdo , quite easily manageable Rogozin did appoint elderly Victor Geraschenko, former chairman of the Russian Central Bank as a candidate from Motherland block. By the leading financial institutions Geraschenko was claimed to be the worst head of the Central Bank worldwide. In comparison with him, even absolutely innocent in economy Mr Putin would look quite progressively. Very ambitious co-chairman of Motherland Sergey Glazjev did insist to run for the presidency on his own. In fact it means that Motherland as a new favorite of the Putin’s court has been permitted to nominate two candidates which is an absolute exception, and a definite demonstration of the Kremlin passions.

Lead by Anatoly Chubais SPS, Union of the Right Forces, similarly to the other parties first decided to let Putin to compete the vacuum that he has so purposefully created. But later in a partial another self-defeat, they agreed to the Kremlin proposal to nominate Irina Khakamada , but not as the party’s official nominee, but as an “independent” candidate. As the administration is using a stick and carrot tactics in order to get at least somebody as legitimate candidates, Moscow political observers are pointing out that in case of the SPS and Khakamada personally “a carrot prevailed in quite impressive way”.

Only one party and one political leader did not lose its dignity in that shameful farce . Grigory Yavlinsky being summoned to the Kremlin several times did not agree to participate in the show. He is also said to propose to the Kremlin clerks to make their proposals to him sweetened in many zeros’ figure public on the national TV first. In the light of the Putin’s re-election scenario , the arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky is coming in yet another light. Not only Putin and his team has decided to block any even partially disloyal to them party from Duma ( Khodorkovsky openly financed Yabloko) ; they also planned in advance to secure Putin’s re-election as much as possible by eliminating all and any serious challenging figure from the presidential electoral horizon.

They are going to such obvious extreme because of one small detail : in the bottom of his heart, KGB second-rate officer, lieutenant-colonel Vladimir Putin knows what is really worthy of. Every of us, if not a complete nut who has lost the touch with reality, does. Putin is a practical man. He knows his own limits and weak-points better than anybody else. He was genuinely afraid of serious rivals. He is also a man without much imagination, neither the people who are working for him are. That’s why their political practices are too simplistic and running fast to the direction which is quite opposite of that one of democracy and freedom.

Freedom of self-sufficient individuals is the worst nightmare for such typical average products of the Soviet epoch as Mr Putin and his soul-mates. They genuinely cannot operate in such atmosphere. From their prospect, freedom is not just dislikeable, it is a menace. It is like oxygen that is vital for a life maintenance of a higher form of organisms, but is lethal for another, lower form of life.

For several decades, one of the favorite metaphors on Russia among the Western experts was the Churchill’s phrase that Russia is “ a secret wrapped in a mystery”. Observing the current development in that country today, the Churchill’s definition sounds too romantic. In my view, it is “ mockery wrapped in a mockery”. And what we will see when and if it will start to unwrap ?

Already today, there are many voices in Russia, both of professional commentators and ordinary people who are comparing the current development there with “Germany in 1920s “, even with “Germany in 1930s”, or with “pre-Mussolini Italy”. People in that much suffered country can feel on a subconscious level, by both living and genetic memory coming back to just two-three generations, re-appearance of signs and features of their chilling past much earlier than the outside world. The subject of disputes within Russian society now is “just” a model of obviously approaching autocracy a’la Putin : would it be neo-Stalinism, or Mussolini-like? Would it be Slavonic version of the current Chinese system, or it would be the new for the world the Russian model of national-socialism? The recent development in Russia is increasingly reminding the beginning of 1930s in the Soviet Union when also quite gray personality, quiet man Josef Stalin after being brought to power from nowhere in 1927, has been transformed as political leader dramatically by 1932. The rest is known.

One of the key-persons in the president administration who is responsible a great deal for orchestrating the current events, has said to one of the Moscow journalists from the Kremlin pool : “You all are criticizing us now saying that we are assisting Putin to implement his anti-democratic strategy. You don’t know the truth. The truth is that few, and more and more handful people here, we are trying by all our possibilities to slow down this, yes, existing, agenda. In several years, you all , our critics, would be praising and thank us for these our attempts, - because in a eight year time ( meaning two more presidential terms) , you would see such development that will terrify all. I can see it right now from right here”.

With such “encouraging” but very well grounded prognoses Russia was entering year 2004, quite possible a turning year in its ­ and ours ­ modern history.