RUSSIA AND ITS NEIGHBORS
12. RUSSO-JAPANESE TERRITORIAL DISPUTE: END IN SIGHT?
SOURCE. Gilbert Rozman, "September 11 Fosters Progress in Russo-Japanese Relations," Russian Regional Report, Vol. 7 No. 2, January 16, 2002 [www.iews.org/rrrabout.nsf]
Professor Rozman (Princeton University) argues that conditions may finally be emerging for the resolution of the longstanding dispute between Russia (USSR) and Japan over the four Kurile Islands which Japan calls its "Northern Territories."
The two countries have been publicly committed to an effort to improve their relations since 1997, when their leaders met in Krasnoyarsk and Japan's foreign minister announced a new "Eurasian diplomacy." But until recently neither side was prepared to make substantive concessions.
The gap between the two sides was first narrowed during talks between their foreign ministries in 2000. Putin renewed the offer made by Khrushchev in 1956 to return the two small islands closest to Japan (Shikotan and Habomai) in the context of a peace treaty, while Japan agreed to exclude the other two islands (Kunashiri and Etorofu) from the agenda in the first stage of negotiations. This concession, however, provoked a storm of opposition from Japanese who feared that Japan would never get the other two islands back, and when Koizumi replaced Mori as prime minister in April 2001 he withdrew the concession.
September 11 broke the impasse. Japan's position vis-à-vis Russia was weakened after Putin aligned Russia with the US in the "war against terror." As its relations with China and South Korea had also been deteriorating, Japan found itself increasingly isolated on the world scene. A new opening to Russia now had its attractions. By late October the Japanese-Russian talks were back on track.
The author points out that both Putin and Koizumi have now established their credentials as strong and popular national leaders, and can therefore afford to make the necessary concessions and defy the ensuing nationalist protest. [This was admittedly before the latest economic crisis hit Japan. -- SDS]
A compromise would entail the return of Habomai and Shikotan to Japan, joint development of Kunashiri and Etorofu, and a peace and friendship treaty. The question of sovereignty over Kunashiri and Etorofu would be "blurred" and deferred for later talks.
Professor Rozman identifies the following interests which Russia and Japan now share:
(1) Both countries have good relations with the US, but are concerned that US power is excessive and wish to reduce their dependency on the US.
(2) Both countries are concerned about the growing power of China, and hope to constrain China's behavior by means of regional integration.
(3) Both countries are concerned about the future of the Korean peninsula, and think that joint efforts in this area will be more effective.
(4) Both countries hope that economic cooperation, especially in regional energy development, will prove mutually advantageous.
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