#11
Financial Times (UK)
December 28, 2001
Editorial
Putin plays a weak hand well
Russian president Vladimir Putin has had a good year. At home, the economy is performing better than expected and the president is more popular than ever. Overseas, world events have played into his hands: the anti-terrorism coalition has won Mr Putin a new friend in the White House and a more attractive role on the international stage. Only Chechnya, like a malignant sore, refuses to heal.
However, the great work of modernising Russia still looms almost as large as when Mr Putin took over from Boris Yeltsin two years ago. With luck on his side, in the form of high oil prices, Mr Putin has made progress; but he still faces big challenges.
First, while he has raised the central government's authority by his personal popularity, he is still far from consolidating his power. The business oligarchs are less prominent in politics now but their economic clout has multiplied with last year's oil boom. Many have become advocates of stability. What they have, they intend to keep.
Mr Putin has not seriously challenged these over-mighty subjects. He is aware of the limits of his position. For example, while he succeeded in installing his own man at the top of Gazprom, the gas corporation as a whole remains unreformed. If the future brings a real clash of interests between the Kremlin and the oligarchs it is not certain the Kremlin would win. Mr Putin must prepare by continuing to raise tax takes, strengthening the administration, attacking corruption and backing the rule of law.
Beyond the Urals
He must maintain pressure on regional governors, who captured excessive power in the Yeltsin years. The president's super-governors have made progress in European Russia. But beyond the Urals, far from Moscow's reach, it is a different story.
Next, Mr Putin should press ahead with his often-announced plans for armed forces reform, including ending conscription. Progress here would do much to show Russians that their country is changing for the better.
Mr Putin must also implement further market-oriented reform. He has made useful progress, notably with tax. But he has done little to restructure monopolies. Change is coming at UES, the electricity group, but not at Gazprom or at Sberbank, the dominant state bank. These reforms are not ideological luxuries. They are vital to boost growth and cut poverty.
A weak hand
Then there is Chechnya. Russia has the right to defend itself against armed separatists. But it must acknowledge that peace cannot come without negotiation - whether the west is watching or not.
Globally, Mr Putin is playing a weak hand well. He has been forced to swallow President George W. Bush's plans for scrapping the anti-ballistic missile treaty. But he has won promises for further nuclear arms cuts.
Mr Putin has bravely sided with the US in the anti-terrorism coalition. He has rightly attempted to convert this partnership into permanent co-operation with Nato. But this strategy has pitched him against some powerful conservatives in the armed forces. He must not over-play his hand.
The west must help the Russian president bear his awesome load. It should support economic reform by extending aid - but only when conditions are right. Unconditional support is worse than no support at all.
Western governments should treat Russia's security concerns with respect. Russians still want their country to be regarded as a great power. The west should avoid unnecessarily antagonising Moscow, for example over the planned enlargement of Nato. The deed should be done - but done sensitively.
However, in dealing with Mr Putin the west should not compromise its principles. Russian democracy is still imperfect. It lacks fully fledged human rights protection, media freedoms and the rule of law. Mr Putin, the ex-KGB man, is not an altruist. Western support should be matched by healthy scepticism.
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