#4
Kommersant
December 21, 2001
THINGS WILL GET WORSE
Political scientists predict Russia's future
Author: Yelena Tregubova
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
AT A ROUNDTABLE CONFERENCE ON "THE POLITICAL ARENA MIDWAY THROUGH PUTIN'S PRESIDENCY: HALFWAY FROM CHAOS TO ORDER", POLITICAL SCIENTISTS WERE PREDICTING DOOM AND GLOOM FOR RUSSIA IN THE NEAR FUTURE. SURPRISINGLY, PRESIDENTIAL ECONOMIC ADVISER ANDREI ILLARIONOV WAS AMONG THEM.
<> The latest forecasts for Russia's political and economic future
At a roundtable conference on "The Political Arena Midway Through Putin's Presidency: Halfway from Chaos to Order", political scientists were predicting doom and gloom for Russia in the near future. Surprisingly, presidential economic adviser Andrei Illarionov was among them.
"The problem isn't that we have a Stalin in control," said Mikhail Delyagin of the Globalization Institute. "The problem is that it's a small Stalin who can't even make up his mind on the strategy and where he wants to lead the country." The economist is convinced that a tough crisis and brutal military-police regime await the nation in 2003-05. The only optimistic phase in Delyagin's speech was his call for "continuation of the work on economic strategy, because it will be needed in any case, if not during the junta period then right after its inevitable fall."
Virtually all participants in the roundtable conference accepted the classification of the groups fighting for power and control over the nation's major resources: the former Yeltsin Family, Anatoly Chubais' group, and the people from St. Petersburg, also known as chekists.
Surprisingly, this thesis was even accepted by presidential economic adviser Andrei Illarionov who turned up at the meeting "just to listen. Illarionov openly announced that the power struggle and media wars under President Putin "are no less vicious than they were under President Yeltsin".
Illarionov: We are back on the tracks we have traveled over the last ten years. At the same time, the dynamism and scale of corruption are even higher than ever before. It was amateurish in the past, but now corruption is becoming institutionalized."
According to Illarionov, the first two years of Putin's presidency were a waste of time from the economic point of view. "Had we pursued at least the policy we had back in 1999, we'd have had growth of 15% rather than 5%," he said. "Instead, we live on oil revenues only. The relative stability of 2000 and 2001 should be ascribed to the incredibly favorable situation on global oil markets, not to a new team in the driver's seat." Completing his speech, Illarionov predicted an inevitable collapse for Russia unless substantial structural changes are initiated and power struggle ended: "Because any entity which is not integral splits and disintegrates sooner or later, as the example of the Soviet Union shows."
Gleb Pavlovsky of the Effective Policy Foundation was more concerned about foreign policy. He warned against overly-close relations with the United States, because "it is always the same pattern with us: Russians are friends first, and then we're being called bastards."
Alexander Oslon of the Public Opinion Foundation took all gloomy predictions in his stride, stressing that Putin's approval rating remains unbelievably high. "When we approach respondents with a list of ten names, 50% choose Putin. When the list contains his name alone, he is supported by 54%," Oslon said.
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