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#8
Asia Times
December 20, 2001
Russia may rethink its pro-Western policy
By Sergei Blagov

MOSCOW - In the immediate aftermath of September 11, Russia somewhat drifted toward the West, and the Kremlin praised what it described as international solidarity against the terrorist threat. However, following the US decision to abandon the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty the Kremlin is seemingly mulling strengthening its ties with Beijing.

Notably, Russia and China voiced a shared concern over the US decision to abandon the ABM treaty during the December 17-18 consultations on strategic stability between Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Mamedov and his Chinese counterpart Wan Guanya in Moscow. Russia and China also discussed "practical cooperation, including military-technical areas", in the wake of the US withdrawal from the treaty, Russian official RIA news agency quoted anonymous Kremlin sources as saying. Russia and China will be keen to "coordinate" their respective policies relative to possible measures of response, the sources said.

Moscow's and Beijing's "stern and non-hysterical" position relative to the US withdrawal from the treaty "has not changed and won't change", the sources said. Moscow believes that cooperation between Russia and China constitutes an important factor, which cannot be ignored by the United States, they said.

Russia and China will continue consultations on strategic stability, well in line with the bilateral Treaty of Good Neighborly Relations, Friendship and Cooperation signed last July, according to RIA. The treaty specifically states that the two nations are not forming a military alliance, while saying that bilateral "military-technical cooperation is not directed against third countries". In the treaty, Russia acknowledged that "Taiwan is an inalienable part of China", and opposed "any kind of independence for Taiwan". The accord includes 25 articles and will be valid till 2021, then subject to automatic prolongation.

The treaty is the first such concord since a 1949 pact between China and the Soviet Union, when Josef Stalin and Mao Zedong announced a Soviet-Chinese alliance. However, within a decade, official pronouncements of friendship were replaced by enmity, which bordered an outright war in the late 1960s. In the wake of the Soviet collapse in 1991, relations between Moscow and Beijing have improved and the two nations endeavored to forge a "strategic partnership".

Some Russian analysts believe that the Kremlin's drift towards the West did not happen at all. "In the aftermath of September 11, we heard only speculations about Russia's alleged re-orientation towards the West," Dr Alexey Voskresensky, professor of Moscow-based Institute of International Relations, told Asia Times Online. There were no official statements from the Kremlin on this issue, he said.

Russia and China reportedly agreed that the real US motives behind ditching the ABM differ from Washington's official pronouncements. Both sides believe, according to the Kremlin sources quoted by RIA, that the US administration wants to support private US companies at the expense of American taxpayers in order to achieve the US technological superiority. Russia and China also fear that the US move may entail militarization of outer space and subsequent arms race in space, the sources warned.

The United States wants to achieve "absolute security" at the expense of other nations, notably by neutralizing Russia's and China's nuclear deterrence potential, RIA commented. However, both sides support "continuation of the dialogue between Russia and the US" and highlighted a "vital importance of sustaining of the international arms control system". Neither Moscow nor Beijing will undertake any "unilateral moves" following the US decision to skip the ABM treaty. The two also believe that it is very important not to cut a dialogue with the United States on strategic stability, RIA said.

Last week Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed Russia's position in telephone consultations with the leader of China. The Kremlin said that Putin discussed the situation surrounding the ABM treaty with Chinese President Jiang Zemin, and the two leaders emphasized the need for further cooperation between their countries to uphold global stability.

Arguably, Russia and China have managed to sustain their high level of confidence, Voskresensky argues. However, any joint Sino-Russian military moves following the US withdrawal from ABM are unlikely, he said.

Russian opponents of the US decision to ditch the ABM treaty, including the State Duma deputy Alexey Arbatov, argued that the move could spark a new arms race war between Asian nuclear players China, India and Pakistan.

Following September 11, the Kremlin's pro-Western stance seemingly indicated a significant shift in Russia's position. Notably, Russia supported and helped the US military action in Afghanistan. In contrast, in the past Moscow was fast to denounce US air strikes against Iraq and in Yugoslavia as unjustified violence aimed at strengthening US domination in the world affairs.

In yet another significant policy reversal, last October the Kremlin announced that it would shut down of its Cold War era military facilities - a radar station in Lourdes, Cuba, and a navy support base in Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam. This move was widely seen as an attempt to please Washington.

Even Russia's once ultra-nationalist Liberal-Democratic Party (LDPR) announced that it was dropping its anti-Western, anti-American and anti-NATO slogans. The party's leader, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, told the LDPR 13th Congress in Moscow that following the September 11 terrorist attacks, Russia should ally with what he described as "Northern civilization", notably the United States and Western Europe. The LDPR previously became notorious due to its trademark anti-Western and nationalist rhetoric.

In the wake of the US withdrawal from ABM, Russian officials recalled some elements of anti-Western rhetoric. Notably, on December 19, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov announced in Brussels that Moscow was wary of NATO's eastward expansion. The NATO clearly wants to move its military outposts towards Russian borders, Ivanov stated. "Emerging mechanisms of cooperation between Russia and the Western civilization clearly fail to materialize," Ivanov was quoted as saying by RIA. The Kremlin has opposed the eastward expansion of the 19-member military alliance, which was formed to counter the former Soviet Union during the Cold War era, as Russia viewed the process as detrimental to Russia's security.

On the other hand, Moscow still tries not to alienate the West. For instance, on December 19, Sergei Lebedev, the head of the Russia Foreign Intelligence Service, or SVR, confirmed that his service was ready to cooperate with colleagues from the United States and Europe, as well as Asia, in order to combat international terrorism.

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