Johnson's Russia List #5605 18 December 2001 davidjohnson@erols.com A CDI Project www.cdi.org [Note from David Johnson: 1. Versty: CZAR IS TOO FAR. (poll) 2. Interfax: Russia not to spend more on defence since US exit from ABM - defence minister. 3. Luba Schwartzman: ORT Review. 4. Polish News Bulletin: Poles Don't See Russia as Enemy. 5. Financial Times (UK): Andrew Jack, Fight for Russia's TV6 turns into soap opera. 6. Moscow Times: Oksana Yablokova, Tallying Up Weekend's Elections. 7. Moscow Times: Chloe Arnold, Rumsfeld Stumbles Into Cacophonous Caucasus. 8. Excerpts from RFE/RL Security Watch. 9. Rossiiskaya Gazeta: KOKOSHIN ON POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF US DECISION. 10. gazeta.ru: Pasko Defence Confident of Full Acquittal. 11. Reuters: Russian arms, military exports to top $4 bln in 2001. 12. Izvestia: GRIGORY YAVLINSKY: ALL OF THAT EXIST IN REAL LIFE TWO HOURS BY FLIGHT FROM HERE. (interview) 13. Defense News: Sean Kay and Joshua Spero, Keep NATO Relevant for the 21st Century. 14. Baltimore Sun: Douglas Birch, Training for life under the big top. School: Moscow's circus college has helped preserve Russia's revered circus traditions in an uncertain era.] ******* #1 Versty December 11, 2001 CZAR IS TOO FAR [from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html] The recent Civil Forum was a refection of a serious Russian problem - the great distance between the Russian citizenry and the society in which they live, its governing bodies. The National Public Opinion Research Center has done a poll. following the example of the Harris service that annually measures the "estrangement index" in the US. According to the results of the poll, 92% of respondents are convinced that the majority of those at the helm "try to use their position to get some personal benefits". Eighty six percent of Russians state, "People in power overall do not care what will happen to us," and 74% of respondents concluded, "no one seriously takes our opinion into consideration." Overall, according to the research, the Russian "estrangement index" is critical - this means we are still unbelievably far from a civil society. We should not be talking about it at forums; we ought to be creating it, day by day. ******* #2 Russia not to spend more on defence since US exit from ABM - defence minister Interfax Brussels, 18 December: Moscow is not going to invest considerable additional funds in the defence industry in response to the USA's withdrawal from the ABM Treaty of 1972, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Ivanov has said. "In the given situation, noone is planning to waste lots of money on an arms race," Ivanov told reporters in Brussels today. According to Ivanov, "often such expenditure is senseless, while the national missile defence system (which the USA plans to develop - Interfax note) is a myth." Replying to questions from Interfax, Ivanov said that last year Moscow had worked out a set of measures in response to the possible withdrawal of the USA from the ABM Treaty. "The response measures were ready earlier. We have a plan for the construction of the armed forces, which includes determining the development of the Strategic Missile Troops. This plan was adopted by the Security Council in 2000," Ivanov noted. He also stressed that "with any kind of planning, any self-respecting military organization always proceeds from various scenarios for the development of events, most often from the worst ones. And we foresaw the possibility of the USA withdrawing from the ABM Treaty. Noting that the USA's unilateral withdrawal from the ABM Treaty does not threaten Russia's security, Ivanov expressed concern about a possible negative response to it from a number of states. "Countries could emerge that will begin to develop their own nuclear and missile programmes in response to the USA's withdrawal from the ABM Treaty. And they could declare: if the USA does not fulfil such major agreements, then we have no obligation to anyone either," Ivanov said. According to Ivanov, "this does not concern China so much as Pakistan and India, Iran and Israel." "A domino effect could be triggered, and there is a certain risk of this," Ivanov said. He said that, even if events develop in this way, Russia will be able to fully ensure national security. "Not a single country is capable of creating from scratch the nuclear potential that Russia and the USA have in five to fifteen years," he stressed. ******* #3 ORT Review www.ortv.ru Compiled by Luba Schwartzman (luba7@bu.edu) Research fellow at the Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology and Policy at Boston University HEADLINES, Monday, December 17, 2001 - Four centrist factions in the State Duma -- Unity, Fatherland - All Russia, People's Deputy and Russia's Regions -- are prepared to support the new Labor Code draft. - All rooms in the Moscow State History Museum have been opened after the 15-year period of restoration during which many of the mistakes of the twentieth century were corrected. - Theater director Aleksandr Volodin passed away last night. Russian President Vladimir Putin sent his condolences to Volodin's friends and relatives. - A State Council working group has prepared a Concept for government policy on small business. Representatives of the working group reported that the main goals of the Concept include protection of small businesses from racketeering and corrupted officials, and ensuring the transparency of small business structures. - Structural changes are expected in the Strategic Missile Force units, which celebrated their 42nd anniversary today. - President Putin met with representatives of Russia's Muslim Organizations -- Ravil Gainutdin, the chairman Council of Muftis, Talgat Tadzhuddin, the chairman of the Central Spiritual Administration of Muslims, and Magomed Almogachiev the chairman of the North Caucasus Spiritual Administration of Muslims -- in honor of the holiday Uraza Bayram. - President Putin has awarded the Tashukhajiev family for heroism. On 22 July, two armed men broke into the home of Saidi Tashukhajiev, a Grozny police officer, killing him and Raul Khabuseev, the head of the criminal department of the local police station. Tashukhajiev's older son, Magomed, took his father's gun and opened fire on the thugs -- killing one and wounding the other. Magomed was also wounded -- and died at the hospital three days later. - Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov declared that the decision of the US administration to leave the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty is mistaken. At the same time, he said that the decision does not affect Russia's military security. - President Putin chaired a cabinet meeting today. He discussed judicial and pension reform, noting that both were vital to the modernization of the Russian Federation as a state. - The Vladivostok trial of military journalist Grigory Pasko is over. A decision will be made in the next few days. As per the stipulation of the Pacific Fleet Procurator's office, the trial is still a closed one. Pasko himself is studying law and writing the text of his final statement. - A new agreement has been signed between Yakutia's ALROSA diamond company and the international corporation DeBeers. - Russia's first president Boris Yeltsin is in a special cardiology unit at a hospital in Berlin. While on a personal visit in Germany, Yeltsin had to undergo a check-up for the operation he had five years ago. German cardiologists affirmed that the operation was of the highest quality, and that Boris Yelrsin is in good condition. - A trial of two illegal armed groups from the command of Chechen field commander Shamil Basaev has began in the Stavropol krai. The groups participated in the 1995 attack on Budennovsk. - Armenian President Robert Kocharian will visit Moscow on President Putin's invitation. Electricity deliveries and bilateral cooperation will be on the agenda. - An interview with President Putin has been published in The Financial Times in anticipation of his visit to Great Britain. - Elections have been held in a number of Russia's regions. Republic presidents were selected in Chuvashia, Komi and Altai; city oblast deputies were chosen in the Moscow, Leningrad, Tver, Tyumen, Tomsk, and Tambov oblasts and in the Stavropol Krai. ****** #4 Polish News Bulletin December 18, 2001 Poles Don't See Russia as Enemy Despite painful memories of past bilateral relations, the majority of Poles do not hold a grudge against Russia, as marked by the results of a recent public opinion poll published by Gazeta Wyborcza daily, where 56 percent of respondents described Russia as Poland's partner today, 15 percent as an ally and only 11 percent as an enemy. At the same time, 53 percent of Poles think that Russia should feel guilty for the past, while 36 percent are of the opposite opinion. Poles generally believe that the Soviet Union benefited from co-operation with Poland after the war, as opposed with 17 percent of respondents who saw benefits of it for both countries and only 2 percent who pointed at Poland as the main beneficiary. tjjh 18 December issue of Gazeta Wyborcza p. 1 ****** #5 Financial Times (UK) December 18, 2001 Fight for Russia's TV6 turns into soap opera By Andrew Jack in Moscow The fight for control of Russia's TV6 network has all the intrigues and characteristics of a Boris Yeltsin-era political soap opera; it contains money, power and now sex too. As Russia winds down for the end-of-year holidays, TV6 - which has tried recently to raise its profile as an anti-Kremlin broadcaster - is threatened by closure in a move its defenders say is an attack on freedom of speech. Others argue its demise has more to do with power struggles between feuding businessmen and politicians. Until early this year TV6 was a low-budget television channel with little influence. That changed in the spring, after the state-backed gas giant Gazprom took control of NTV, the media empire previously controlled by the self-exiled tycoon Vladimir Gusinsky. Boris Berezovsky, his sometime rival who himself fled abroad last year, offered TV6, in which he owns a 75 per cent stake, as a safe haven for NTV journalists. They were led by Yevgeny Kiselyov, its general director and lead anchorman, who said they were the victims of a previous Kremlin-inspired campaign. Shortly afterwards, Lukoil, the largest Russian oil group which holds a minority 15 per cent stake in TV6, launched legal action to liquidate the channel, arguing that it had been excluded from exerting management influence at a company which was insolvent and should be closed. Two judgments have since gone in Lukoil's favour, which may lead to TV6 being wound up in January. That has triggered accusations of interference in the decisions of the courts, which President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged are far from independent, signing on Monday a series of proposed reforms to the legal system. Some see the action as the result of political pressure from the Kremlin. That may reflect the periodic anti-government line taken by TV6, or a more personal dispute with Mr Berezovsky, a former close supporter of Mr Yeltsin who has made no secret of his desire to use the channel to stage a political come-back. Alexei Pankin, head of the media support programme at the Soros Open Society institute, says: "When Berezovsky predicted in the spring the demise of Mr Putin by the end of this year, it was a declaration of war." In his latest remarks - reported on NTV rather than TV6 - last Friday, Mr Berezovsky accused Russia's secret services of organising the Moscow apartment explosions in 1999 which triggered the second Chechen war and helped Mr Putin win the election as president. He had in previous interviews said he had no evidence of any such link. The following day, compromising video tapes of a man "resembling" Mr Kiselyov cavorting with prostitutes were released on to a Russian internet site. The affair recalls the tactics used to oust Yuri Skuratov, Russia's outspoken prosecutor general, in 1999. ****** #6 Moscow Times December 18, 2001 Tallying Up Weekend's Elections By Oksana Yablokova Staff Writer Against a backdrop of high drama in the leadup to presidential elections Sunday in the Sakha republic, polls held over the weekend in three Russian republics and seven regions passed almost unnoticed. The Komi republic's incumbent head, Yury Spiridonov, lost his third-term re-election bid to local legislative assembly head Vladimir Torlopov. Backed by Yabloko, the Union of Right Forces and the Kremlin, Torlopov got 40 percent of the vote against Spiridonov's 35 percent. Complaints of campaign regulation violations made the participation of Spiridonov, who ran one of Russia's richest republics for the entire post-Soviet decade, uncertain until the day before the poll, when the republic's Supreme Court confirmed his right to run. In the republic of Chuvashia, incumbent President Nikolai Fyodorov was re-elected for a third term with 40.73 percent of the vote against Communist candidate and State Duma Deputy Valentin Shurchanov's 37 percent. Fyodorov, called "a consistent democrat" by many analysts, was former President Boris Yeltsin's first justice minister in 1991 and helped write post-Soviet democratic laws. Less than a year ago, he said he did not plan to run for re-election. While in Komi and Chuvashia a simple majority of votes in favor of one candidate is enough, local laws in the western Siberian republic of Altai require a candidate to receive 50 percent of the vote for a first-round win — and the race there is far from over. Agrarian party head Mikhail Lapshin and incumbent President Semyon Zubakin are front-runners after Sunday's first round and go on to the second round Jan. 6. An outspoken opponent of land reform, Duma Deputy Lapshin took 23.45 percent of the vote, while Zubakin received 14.9 percent, according to the local election commission. Local legislative assembly elections were also held in the Altai republic and the Stavropol, Tyumen, Tambov, Tver, Tomsk, Leningrad and Moscow regions. In the Leningrad region, incumbent speaker Vitaly Klimov and at least half the incumbent deputies were re-elected. At least two attempts to bribe voters were registered, and in one case a criminal investigation was opened, Interfax reported. Low turnout invalidated two referendums on construction projects. Local legislative assembly elections also took place in the Moscow region, but the outcome remains undecided in 12 of the 50 districts due to low voter turnout. Overall turnout was 28 percent, just above the required 25 percent. ******* #7 Moscow Times December 18, 2001 Rumsfeld Stumbles Into Cacophonous Caucasus By Chloe Arnold BAKU, Azerbaijan -- "I'm told I'm the first United States secretary of defense to visit Azidge-bajan," Donald Rumsfeld told reporters squeezed into a drafty room at the top of the presidential administration building Saturday. "And, er, I'm very pleased to be here today." I suppose when you're on a whistlestop tour of the South Caucasus -- all three countries by teatime -- it's easy enough to forget their names. Never mind that Azerbaijan has told the United Sates it can use its airspace for military action in Afghanistan or that Azeri troops are gearing up to serve as peacekeepers in Kabul if they are needed. The journalists traveling on Rumsfeld's private plane didn't have much of a clue about where they were in the world, either. "Have you been in this neck of the woods before?" I asked a man from ABC, who was trying to decide which of his three mobile phones to call his office from. "I don't think so," he said. "The nearest I've come is Spain." It was a shame he didn't have longer to spend in each country so that he could see some of the sights or taste the national cuisine, I said. "Yes," he said, "but at least I'll have the stamps in my passport." Rumsfeld had clearly been sent to the Caucasus to do some back-slapping. Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia have thrown their weight behind the U.S. coalition against terrorism, and their airspace would provide a useful corridor between Russia and Iran for planes taking off from NATO airbases in Turkey. The three nations are unlikely to change their stance on the campaign in Afghanistan, but it's as well to keep them happy. Azerbaijan has much in common with neighboring Iran, which has stayed out of the anti-terror coalition. They are the only two predominantly Shiite Muslim countries in the world, and some 30 million Azeris live in the north of Iran. Since Sept. 11, three Saudi Arabians and three Egyptians linked to terrorist organizations have been deported from Azerbaijan. And Egyptian Islamic Jihad, which has connections with Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida network, has been active here in the past. Meanwhile, Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze has admitted that Chechen separatist fighters are living in Georgia -- and reports say Chechens have been fighting alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan. Western diplomats have long pointed to the Caucasus as a staging post for weapons that come up from the Middle East on their way to Europe. For all the support they have pledged, it seems the U.S. government still wants to keep an eye on Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia. Provided, that is, it can remember their names. Chloe Arnold is a freelance journalist based in Baku, Azerbaijan. ******* #8 Excerpts RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC RFE/RL Security Watch Vol. 2, No. 46, 14 December 2001 Security, Corruption, and Foreign Policy in Russia and the Post- Communist Region (Compiled by Victor Yasmann) Å AS ANALYST SAYS PUTIN IS STILL FINDING HIS WAY. Writing in "Moskovskii komsomolets" on 5 December, the international relations director at the Institute of U.S.A. and Canada, Anatolii Utkin, said that despite Russia's clear moves toward better relations with the West, President Putin has yet to determine the course the country will ultimately take. Utkin said Putin is hesitant to make big concessions to the United States for fear of antagonizing China and the Arab world. Å AS RUSSIA PREPARES TO ASK FOR EXPANSION OF ITS ARCTIC TERRITORY. A spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry announced on 10 December that Russia has informed the United States, Canada, Norway, and Denmark that it is ready to submit an official request to the UN for the extension of Russia's exclusive economic zone in the Arctic Ocean by 1.2 million square kilometers (see "RFE/RL Security Watch," no. 12, 9 October 2000, and no. 36, 17 September 2001) ITAR- TASS reported. The territory Russia seeks is extremely rich in hydrocarbon resources. The spokesman admitted that both the U.S. and Canada are "very reserved" about Russia's intentions to gain control of the territory. MOST RUSSIANS REGRET DEMISE OF USSR, BUT DO NOT FAVOR ITS RESTORATION. Over 70 percent of Russians lament the fall of the Soviet Union, and this number continues to rise, lenta.ru reported on 9 December, citing an opinion poll conducted by the Public Opinion agency on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the official dissolution of the Soviet Union on 8 December 1991. But the poll of 1,500 respondents in 44 regions also reported that some 72 percent do not think that restoring the Soviet Union is possible or necessary. The number of those who regret the disintegration of the Soviet Union has grown by 10 percent since 1992, when the first poll on that issue was conducted, lenta.ru reported. MORE BOOKS ABOUT PUTIN. The Russian market for political best- sellers is inundated with books about President Putin, which has led to the establishment of his own small cult of personality, polit.ru reported on 3 December. Political scientist Vadim Pechenev, in his newly released book "Putin: Last Chance for Russia?" compares the Russian president with the hero of the Aleksandr Pushkin poem "Yevgenii Onegin," while in his book "Russian Challenge," the French author Victor Lupan makes comparisons between Putin and Napoleon. Finally, the astrologist Aleksandr Astragor, in his book "The Mystic Side of Putin," offers his readers a formula of Putin's soul that, in his view, is governed by the planets Mars, Venus, and Pluto. DRAFTER OF CORPORATE BEHAVIORAL CODE SUSPECTED IN CORRUPTION. The Corporate Behavioral Code that was prepared by Igor Kostikov, the head of the Federal Securities Commission, and presented by him to the West as an example of Russia's movement toward a civilized market economy, is in fact a document that leaves much room for abuse, "Novaya gazeta" reported on 3 December. According to experts from the Association for Protection of Minority Shareholders, Kostikov has added many loopholes into the document in order to suit his own business interests. The paper noted that, as Kostikov is both the head of the Russian securities market and his own investment company that controls up to 40 percent of the municipal bond market in Russia, it is not surprising that there are no provisions in the code to ban such conflicts of interest. RUSSIA TO RECEIVE DOCUMENTS ON BONY AFFAIR. Russian law enforcement authorities have been informed by the U.S. Justice Department that it is ready to transfer documents to them concerning the Russian side of the Bank of New York (BONY) scandal, "Vremya novostei" reported on 11 December. The documents pertain to the investigation of illegal transactions in 1994 worth some $2 million between BONY and the Russian company Nizhnegorodets. The transactions were allegedly authorized by then-governor of Nizhnii Novgorod Boris Nemtsov, and Anatolii Chubais, who headed the State Property Committee at that time. Several days after the transactions were made, "Nizhnegorodets" declared bankruptcy. The documents reportedly name Nataliya Gurfinkel-Kagalovskaya, a central figure in the BONY affair, as the person who made the transaction. NEWSPAPER SAYS LUKOIL TAKING CONTROL OF TV-6 ON KREMLIN'S ORDERS. LUKoil head Vakhit Alekperov is taking control of TV-6 not because of his business interests, but under the direct instruction of the Kremlin, which would like to put a leash on the independent station, "Moskovskie novosti" wrote on 4 December. The paper argued that, had Alekperov really needed a mass media outlet, he never would have sold the profitable REN-TV, as he did recently. Furthermore, Alekperov also has personal interests in the deal -- by abiding by the Kremlin's will now, he can expect many more favors from it in the future, the daily said. ******* #9 Rossiiskaya Gazeta No. 245 December 18, 2001 [translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only] KOKOSHIN ON POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF US DECISION Andrei KOKOSHIN, ex-secretary of the Russian Security Council, deputy of the State Duma, talks with Vladimir BOGDANOV about strategic security Question: What do you think about the decision of the Bush administration to withdraw from the ABM Treaty? How will it influence Russia-US relationship and global strategic stability? Answer: That decision is a major landmark in modern history. I don't doubt that it is one of the gravest mistakes in the US national security policy, if only because it was made in conditions of growing military-political instability and strategic uncertainty in the world, when there are no new mechanisms of ensuring strategic stability that could replace those that worked during the Cold War and Soviet perestroika. It will have a negative effect on Russo-American relations, but we should not dramatise it. On the whole Russia has the capabilities to ensure a reply strike potential even if the USA builds its NMD system. But we should take proper steps, which calls for outlays and the attention of Russia's top leadership. Question: Most experts agree that the first phase of the NMD project is spearheaded exclusively at the Chinese nuclear potential. Only the American man in the street - and then not every one - believes in the fairy-tales about the nuclear threat coming from the rogue countries, which in US parlance are now Iran and now North Korea or Iraq, depending on political considerations. Answer: US officials have long stopped using this argument at the high military-political level. Americans say off record that North Korean and Iranian missiles are nothing but a manoeuvre invented because it was impossible to say outright that the NMD was being created to neutralise the Chinese, and subsequently Russian nuclear potential. The very beginning of the NMD project psychologically devalued the nuclear forces of China and France, not to mention the British nuclear forces that have long become an appendage to the US nuclear fist. The plummeting of the Gaullist spirit in France can raise the question of preserving the independence of the French nuclear forces. The Chinese leadership is in a quandary. On the one hand, it cannot permit even a virtual devaluation of its nuclear forces in the eyes of its people and the international community. On the other hand, it would be politically extremely dangerous for China to reply by building up its nuclear forces. For this can provoke a sweeping negative reaction in the world, which would hinder the implementation of Beijing's long-term plans of augmenting its economic and research-technical might. Beijing will most probably make a show of all available technical possibilities to evade any potential NMD system without considerably increasing the number of strategic delivery vehicles and warheads on them. Question: Can Russia counter the US intention to formalise its military-political hegemony in the world? For example, can it start to quickly develop relations within the Russia-India-China strategic triangle? Answer: These three powers had quite a few stands in common, in particular on the ABM treaty. But there have always been problems in India-China relations. There are grounds to say that the situation is not suitable for strengthening India-China collaboration on the key issues of international security. The press is more frequently quoting experts as saying that the USA will manage to turn India towards a new policy of deterring China. India, which quickly and resolutely joined the US-led counter-terror coalition, has been actually granted the recognition of its nuclear status as all sanctions against it have been lifted. The next item on the agenda is the issue of major arms deliveries to India from the USA and other Western countries, which will create problems for Russian arms merchants. India and China are Russia's most important partners in military-technical cooperation, on which the future of the Russian defence industries and hence real sovereignty of the country largely depend. ****** #10 gazeta.ru December 17, 2001 Pasko Defence Confident of Full Acquittal By Lera Arsenina Grigory Pasko’s defence lawyer Ivan Pavlov is convinced that in a week his client will be fully acquitted. As strange as it may seem, the naval prosecutor in Pasko’s case Alexander Kondakov may well have helped the defence’s case. Grigory Pasko, a former naval officer and later a reporter for the Pacific Ocean Fleet’s publication Boevaya Vakhta (Battle Watch), was arrested by the Federal Security Service’s (FSB) Pacific Ocean Fleet department in November 1997 and was charged with high treason for supplying classified materials to the Japanese media. The FSB alleged that Grigory Pasko passed documents containing classified information to the Japanese newspaper Asahi and to Japan’s NHK television network. Pasko denied the charges and claimed he was being persecuted because of to his environmental activities: In several articles Pasko exposed the Russian navy’s practice of illegally dumping nuclear waste off the coast of the Primorye Region. Pasko spent almost two years in custody and then in July 1999 the Pacific Fleet court acquitted him of espionage charges but instead convicted him of ‘abuse of office’ and sentenced him to 3 years in prison. However, after the sentence was read out the journalist was immediately released under an amnesty act. Grigory Pasko’s defence then filed an appeal to a higher court, pressing for a full acquittal. At the same time the Pacific Ocean Fleet prosecutor’s office lodged a complaint to the Supreme Court of Russia, demanding that Pasko be retried on espionage charges. In November 2000 the board of military judges of the Supreme Court ruled that Pasko’s case had not been fully and thoroughly investigated and thus annulled the three-year sentence and sent the case back to the Pacific Ocean Fleet court. The first court hearings of Pasko’s retrial on espionage charges were initially scheduled for June 4, 2001 but were postponed until June 20 at the request of the military prosecutor. The hearings began on July 11 and the trial has continued since. On Monday, December 17, Grigory Pasko’s defence attorneys delivered their final statement to the Pacific Ocean Fleet military court. Pasko’s chief defence lawyer Ivan Pavlov gave a 2 hour speech explaining why he considers his client is innocent and called for his full acquitted. First and foremost, Pavlov drew attention to the fact that the indictment act was based on a Defence Ministry decree on state secrets, which was annulled by the Supreme Court of Russia in September this year; therefore the indictment has no legal base, the lawyer claims. Pasko’s indictment is based on the Defence Ministry’s decree No.055 ‘On State Secrets’ which dictates what military data constitutes classified information. However, that decree was annulled by the Supreme Court on September 12 this year upon the request of an expert from the Norwegian environmental organisation Bellona, Alexander Nikitin. Nikitin, a former navy officer with Russia’s Northern Fleet, was also charged with high treason but was acquitted due to a lack of evidence. But Pasko’s lawyer holds that even if the Defence Ministry decree No. 055 had not been annulled, it could not prove Pasko’s guilt for Pavlov claims the documents that Pasko handed to the Japanese media did not contain any classified information. Pavlov also claims the prosecutors have not presented a shred of evidence proving that Pasko actually met with the Japanese media and handed them the documents. The prosecutor Alexander Kondakov has reportedly not specified where, how and to whom Pasko presented the supposedly classified documents. Thus Pasko’s defence insists that the charges lack clarity. Furthermore, the defence claims that much of the evidence presented by the prosecution was gathered in breech of procedural regulations and is therefore inadmissible evidence. Pavlov is confident that on December 24 Pasko will be acquitted. Pasko’s lawyer Pavlov told Gazeta.Ru that throughout the litigation the defence has done everything possible to prove Pasko’s innocence. The naval prosecutor Alexander Kondakov has partly helped the defence’s case by dropping the charge of ‘passing-classified-data’, thus reducing the charge to ‘gathering classified information with the aim of passing it over to an unauthorised party. Nevertheless the prosecution is still demanding that Pasko be jailed for 9 years. Pasko is due to make his final statement to the court on Tuesday December 18th. Pasko’s trial has attracted public attention not only in Russia, but also abroad. The international human rights watchdog Amnesty International has called Pasko “a prisoner of conscience”. ******* #11 Russian arms, military exports to top $4 bln in 2001 December 17, 2001 MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian arms and military exports will exceed $4 billion this year and may climb again in 2002, Interfax news agency quoted a government official as saying Monday. Russia reported $3.68 billion in weapon exports in 2000, with revenues to state coffers totaling $2.84 billion. Alexander Denisov, deputy chairman of Russia's committee for foreign military-technical cooperation, said the exact figure for this year would only be clear by March 2002 but that it would be "more than $4 billion and less than $5 billion." "Next year we hope that Russia will exceed that level," Denisov said. He added that one-third of the total sum to be received by Russia in 2001 would consist of payments for military hardware and arms deliveries carried out the previous year. Earlier this year, officials from Russia's key arms exporter, state-owned Rosoboronexport, said they expected governments' future requirements would reflect an increased emphasis on counterterrorism and internal security following the Sept. 11 hijack attacks on the United States. The report said new orders rose in 2000 for the third year running, but deliveries fell. The Middle East accounts for around 40 percent of the world market. Russia has supplied tons of equipment, including tanks, rifles and ammunition, to help Afghanistan's Northern Alliance overthrow the formerly ruling Taliban regime. An annual review by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said India and China were Russia's main customers for 2000, but that Iran was shaping up as one of the biggest for the future. The IISS said the United States was the world's biggest exporter of arms, now accounting for almost half of global deliveries. Next in line is Britain. Russian deliveries are rising sharply. Arms exports remain an important source of revenue for Russia, which saw its share of world weapons trade shrink dramatically after the collapse of the Soviet Union. ******** #12 Izvestia December 17, 2001 GRIGORY YAVLINSKY: ALL OF THAT EXIST IN REAL LIFE TWO HOURS BY FLIGHT FROM HERE Author: Svetlana Babayeva [from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html] AN INTERVIEW WITH YABLOKO LEADER GRIGORI YAVLINSKY. An extensive interview with Yabloko leader Grigory Yavlinsky on his party's policies and rare appearance in public Grigori Yavlinsky rarely appears in the media nowadays. He agreed to meet with this Izvestia correspondent on the eve of Yabloko's congress, which was scheduled to take place one of these days. He did not bother to conceal his skeptical attitude towards the media. Question: Yabloko will convene a congress this month. According to information available to Izvestia, you plan some truly grandiose changes. Grigori Yavlinsky: That's a bit of an exaggeration. We will preserve the distinctive features and continuity of Yabloko. There will be, however, some serious changes in the charter. If the congress approves, we will amend the procedure of admitting members into the party. It will be like this henceforth: a person submits an application and becomes a member of Yabloko three months later, unless his or her application has been turned down. We will abandon the probation period we currently have. We plan to do away with Vladimir Lenin's formula, which states that "everybody should spend some time in the cell organization". You may be a Yabloko member and never attend conferences or meetings. You can only elect the party chairman during primaries and the party's candidate for the presidency. Question: It will surely be viewed as Yabloko's last attempt to swell its ranks so as to convince the Justice Ministry that Yabloko meets all requirements of the new law on political parties. Grigori Yavlinsky: We already have something to convince the Justice Ministry with. Yabloko's membership numbers over 12,000. We also meet every other thing required by the law. Question: Why then is this party liberalism? Grigori Yavlinsky: Ours is a liberal party. We do not have rigid regulations covering every minute in detail. Question: Why is Yabloko, so great, liberal, and pro-European party losing votes then? You may fail to scale the 5% barrier next time. Are you afraid of coming in last? Grigori Yavlinsky: I've been answering this question since 1993. We are not afraid of anything. The absolute figures of our voters steadily remain on the level of 5-6 million. We are aware of the authoritarian moods and tendencies in the country. Well, they are natural to a considerable extent, following the way the reforms were implemented throughout the decade. "We've seen these democrats," the people say. Question: And yet, you are not afraid to use the term "democratic" in the name of the party. Are you sure your electorate will remain with you? Grigori Yavlinsky: I'm sure of the future. The electorate we've been talking about has voted for Yabloko five times. Moreover, nobody knows the exact figures of who votes for whom. Nobody save the Central Election Commission chairman probably. Question: Are you getting ready for the next parliamentary election? Grigori Yavlinsky: We will begin preparations right after the congress. Question: Do you think a rightist liberal party, an alliance with the Union of Right Forces, will be formed for the next election? Grigori Yavlinsky: It depends on the situation. Our coalition in the Duma works successfully just as we promised. We act as one on very many issues. We cooperate in some regions as well. For the time being, I do not perceive anything beyond cooperation of two strong and independent parties. The problem is that our voters are incompatible all too frequently. There is a principal discord on some matters. What can we do when the Union of Right Forces leader Anatoly Chubais calls for a war in the Caucasus because "this is how the Russian army can be revived"? Question: There is the widespread and stable opinion that Yabloko is ever in the opposition. Is it an illusion? Or has the authorities these last few years failed to suggest anything you would support? Grigori Yavlinsky: We always back up what we think is worth our support. When our proposals on lower taxes were implemented, for example. Or when the president put forth the idea of a Russian- European anti-ballistic missile defense. Or when the president backed up the counter-terrorism coalition. On the other hand, we will never support the idea of importing radioactive wastes. These days, we are in the opposition to the policy of constructing a controllable democracy in Russia. Look what is being done to TV-6, how TV channels are working, or how regional elections take place. Question: There are rumors that you yourself would not balk at the use of administrative resources. I mean there are rumors that you called Vladimir Gusinsky on the phone when you disliked something newspapers of Media-Most wrote about you. Grigori Yavlinsky: No. I have never called him and never will. Neither would I call your newspaper. Question: Are you in touch with Gusinsky? Grigori Yavlinsky: The last time we talked on the phone was in April. I still respect the TV, radio, newspapers, and magazines he created. It is a pity that all was devastated. Question: You prepared some serious programs for the congress. Do you discuss parts of them with the government so as to make them foundations of draft laws at a future date perhaps? Grigori Yavlinsky: Yes, we discuss a lot of things. All military issues are constantly discussed with the Security Council, Defense Ministry, and General Staff. We discuss some serious suggestions pertaining to taxes and budget with Kudrin, court system with Kozak, and the Russian-European anti-ballistic missile defense and matters of local self-rule with the presidential administration. This is a long- term program. We will probably use it in the election. Question: All the same, your documents are somewhat Utopian on the whole - implementation of the law, transparent civil service, eradication of corruption. It is not very realistic in this country with its traditions, the last decade, etc. Grigori Yavlinsky: We are the opposition precisely because of what you've just mentioned. Because those who were or still are in the corridors of power believe that "This is what our country is like and what it will always be like". I do not think, for instance, that my country has already built democracy and everything has been done that was to be done. I think we live in a quasi-Soviet period now because all our leaders, all our nomenclature are Soviet era products. Question: There is such a thing as a transition period etc. Grigori Yavlinsky: It's a policy of the weak or the conniving. Question: And yours is impossible to implement. Grigori Yavlinsky: It is not. Because everything we propose exist in real life just two hours by plane from here. Yes, there are countries in Latin America and Asia where the state of affairs like the one we have today lasts for 5-6 decades on end. That is pretty much what they have convinced themselves of. They say: "that's how it has always been, and that's how it always will". Question: And when do you think we may reach the level of what exists two hours by plane from here? Grigori Yavlinsky: In 15-20 years of hard work. Question: Let us consider one thesis in your manifesto. Freedom of movement. Are you prepared to meet an influx of residents of half of southern regions in Moscow tomorrow? Grigori Yavlinsky: Everybody who needs it and who can afford it (they usually can, you know), and are getting the propiska in Moscow without trouble even now. The more rigid a rule is, the worse corruption becomes because it is a watering hole. Nothing should be changed at a single stroke. Operating step by step, that's the ticket. As for the Caucasus... let's decide: it is either you build a wall to divide them and us, or you learn to live together. There are no other options. Question: What party system do you think will exist in Russia in future? The Unity is talking about two or three parties... Grigori Yavlinsky: Just fancy what will happen if the president wakes up tomorrow and says out loud that the Unity is a bad party. Do you think you will have the time to approach them with the question of what they think about it? I do not think. The Unity will be history before you get there... It is difficult to predict the future political picture. At this point, we have two political parties and a half. Question: That's probably the Communists, you, and... Union of Right Forces as "the half"... Is it true you spend virtually all your time giving lectures abroad and have all but abandoned Yabloko? Grigori Yavlinsky: No. The Executive Council of the party meets every week, and the bureau every two weeks. There has not been a single meeting that I did not chair. As for the lectures abroad, some are read in the United States on the basis of my book on the theory of economics. I mean, it is not only that we study by their textbooks. Question: And still, you've dropped out of sight. Grigori Yavlinsky: I am frequently seen in the streets. As for why I do not appear on TV, ask somebody else. Our TV is an instrument for tampering with public opinion. It is not a means for debating on social problems. Unless this state of affairs is amended, we are going to have forbidden figures and forbidden subjects. Question: Do you think the president too is thinking along these lines, "In this country..." etc? Grigori Yavlinsky: I do not want to think so. I will do my best to make the president aware of this matter and the issue of the necessity to lower taxes, to debureaucratize the system, Chechnya... All occurrences so far show that we were correct then. Question: Will you run for president again? Grigori Yavlinsky: I have not given it a thought yet. We will see. For the time being, the tendencies are too confusing. A lot of what the president is doing - his statements in Berlin, Brussels, and Shanghai, his September 24 statement, and some other moves - is quite correct. They allow Russia to retain its statehood. At the same time, his domestic policy all too frequently aims to continue constructing in Russia of a corporation state. Unless serious changes take place in this sphere, foreign policy will degenerate into something we already had in 1941-1945. I mean an alliance in the face of a tactical objective, and an immediate split once it has been accomplished. Question: Your deputy Sergei Ivanenko is so frequently seen in public that some observers are left with the impression that Yavlinsky intends to give up politics. Grigori Yavlinsky: I like it that he is seen in public frequently. That's his job. As for me, "Do not worry for I have not left. And do not hope, because "I'll never leave", as Vladimir Vysotsky put it. (Translated by A. Ignatkin) ******** #13 Defense News 17-23 December 2001 Keep NATO Relevant for the 21st Century By Sean Kay and Joshua Spero Sean Kay is assistant professor of politics and government at Ohio Wesleyan University, Delaware, Ohio. Joshua Spero, a visiting assistant professor of political science at Merrimack College, North Andover, Mass., served as senior civilian strategic planner for European-NATO issues in the Joint Chiefs of Staff from 1994-2000. America and its European allies may be witnessing the functional end of NATO. This stark reality concerns the serious political disjunction over U.S.-allied warfighting strategy and NATO’s long-term military purpose. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell’s meeting with NATO foreign ministers on Dec. 6-7 in Brussels neither confronted these hard issues nor set a firm focus to strengthen allied military capabilities for the foreseeable future. This makes U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s visit to NATO headquarters on Dec. 18-19 all the more urgent for allied defense ministers to determine a long-term military strategy that uses NATO’s military capabilities much more effectively. Resolution in Washington and alliance capitals this month must yield a coherent NATO strategy to unveil at its November 2002 Prague Summit to preserve NATO’s unique, integrated command and control capabilities to mobilize future coalitions against terrorism and other sources of regional instability. Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the subsequent U.S.-led international coalition against terrorism in Afghanistan, it has become more critical to resolve mounting trans-Atlantic planning and warfighting divergences. After NATO’s first collective defense invocation on Sept. 12, America proceeded alone militarily, employing British and other forces sparingly. Better use of multilateral NATO troop and equipment contributions, rather than bilateral efforts to generate international coalitions of the willing, may have alleviated today’s scrambling to plan combat, humanitarian and peace operations in Afghanistan and beyond. Washington need not have worried about NATO slowing military planning. Rather, America could have requested immediate and separate NATO contributions for combat, humanitarian and peace operations, while also building additional non-NATO coalitions. Such a strategy would have put institutional resources and assets at America’s disposal more quickly from NATO, NATO-Partnership for Peace and NATO-Mediterranean Dialogue nations, averting intergovernmental and allied disputes like those seen in NATO’s 1999 Kosovo operation. As the United States puts more focus on Asia, U.S. and European leaders still need to coordinate closely via NATO’s 50 year-old linkages. NATO defines the key multilateral trans-Atlantic security link with the only integrated politico-military command and control structures in the world for collective defense, operational planning and efficient training —reformed and enlarged for cooperative security during the 1990s. NATO now needs to serve as the pool to supply well-equipped, well-trained forces for future coalitions in and out of Europe. If European governments want to continue playing significant international coalition roles, they must seriously modernize forces to project them to different parts of the world, reinforce U.S.-led operations or take the lead. Lessons from Afghanistan and the NATO-led operations in the Balkans show that aging European equipment cannot substitute for rapid collective defense commitments to deploy in coalitions of the willing, NATO-led or not. Some NATO and non-NATO partner nations possess counter-terror experience that remains integral to future coalitions. What, then, should be done to augment NATO’s strengths to make the 2002 Czech-hosted summit a genuine watershed? ** Advance NATO-European Union politico-military planning and force contributions via a NATO-EU Partnership Coordination Cell. Synchronizing NATO-EU coalition-building enhances America’s global antiterrorist campaign and may reduce proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, ethnic conflict and narcotics trafficking. Most importantly, NATO soon must establish clear requirements that future NATO members must meet to prove not only their collective defense contributions, but also their counter-terror capabilities. ** NATO-Russian relations must broaden more than politically, as the United States and European allies consider what kind of consultative mechanism they really want to implement for a Russia-North Atlantic Council. Originally initiated by British Prime Minister Tony Blair and tacitly supported by Washington, the United States curtailed the consultation notion in Brussels on Dec. 6. Russia and NATO actually can do much more pragmatically and militarily. Naturally, America and European allies must maintain NATO’s military cohesiveness. However, by exploring a NATO-Russia contingency command headquarters concept in several locations, including Russia, and inclusive of NATO, EU, and non-NATO Partnership for Peace and Mediterranean Dialogue nations, NATO will confront more functionally global terrorism and other threats. ** NATO and America must advance cooperative planning that laid the critical groundwork for Afghanistan operations. Now, we need Partnership for Peace’s backbone extended more concertedly toward NATO-Mediterranean Dialogue nations, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Israel and Jordan. Future international counter-terror missions comprising military and non-military components may not always involve Europeans. Yet, we must build on the cooperative lessons learned in Balkan enforcement operations and in Afghanistan. These missions still involve NATO and non-NATO countries, including integral contributions from Latin American, African, Middle Eastern, and Asian Muslim and non-Muslim nations, providing important political and operational models necessary for 21st century challenges. ******* #14 Baltimore Sun December 18, 2001 Training for life under the big top School: Moscow's circus college has helped preserve Russia's revered circus traditions in an uncertain era. By Douglas Birch MOSCOW - At one of Russia's most prestigious institutions of higher learning, no students work harder than the class clowns. "It's a common idea that to be a clown is an easy thing," says Valentina Savina, director of the State School of Circus and Variety Arts. But clowning is the most intellectually demanding major offered by the four-year college, and about half of the tiny number of freshmen who start as clowns switch to other specialties. "You must be born a clown," she explains, "and you must have a philosophy of performance." Moscow's circus college doesn't just train a fresh crop of young entertainers each year. It has helped preserve Russia's revered circus traditions in an uncertain era. And although the school has fallen on hard economic times, it increasingly is helping to introduce the discipline and artistry of classical Russian circus to Western audiences. From the start, Soviet leaders regarded circuses as recreation fit for the masses. Not long after the Russian Revolution, two Moscow ringmasters persuaded Communist Party officials that the best way to prepare performers was through a rigorous, standardized curriculum. So in 1927, the Kremlin founded what administrators say is the world's first circus college, which wound up in a leafy neighborhood north of central Moscow. "It was an opportunity for the new circus generation to acquire knowledge, to achieve a higher level of culture," according to the school's brochure. The Moscow school trained performers who entertained workers across the old Soviet Empire. Graduates walked tightropes, did back flips and stomped around in big floppy shoes from Minsk to Murmansk. The school inspired the founding of similar institutions in former Soviet client states, including Mongolia, Vietnam and Cuba. Over the past 74 years, the school has produced more than 5,000 graduates, among them many Soviet-era alumni who went on to socialist fame, if not capitalist fortune, in the circus ring. Four years ago, the death of one alumnus, the clown Yuri Vladimirovich Nikulin, brought thousands of mourners to view his body in Moscow's Old Circus. But like many institutions that thrived in the Soviet era, the Russian circus has suffered since communism's collapse a decade ago. Many circuses have simply closed. Many that remain open attract dwindling audiences. Not only are Russians having fewer children, those children are increasingly seduced by Western television shows, movies and video games. Circus stars are no longer the celebrities they once were. "The prestige of the profession has somehow dropped," Savina says. So have the fortunes of the college, where former circus stars earn teaching salaries of less than $2,000 a year. A decade ago, the college had 400 students and graduated 100 a year. Today, it has only 167 students, and they come to classes each day at a squat building where the floors are dusty and the walls are in need of a fresh coat of paint. Students and administrators say the quality of students may also have declined slightly in recent years, as young Russians look for the chance to make money in high-tech industries. But there are still seven applicants for each slot in the freshman class, more than for any of Russia's other colleges for the arts. For the cocky schoolyard acrobat, the rigors of circus school can be a rude shock, teachers say. Students spend the first year practicing all the performance genres taught at the school - balancing acts, trapeze work, clowning, acrobatics, gymnastics, juggling and others. But they are also required to study the history of art, music and theater. Everyone is given acting and dancing lessons to improve their poise and stage presence. A typical day includes an hour of warm-up, five hours of instruction and long hours of practice every night. On a recent wintry afternoon, long after classes ended, the gymnasium was jammed with students practicing their routines. One rubber-limbed scholar did a split on a tightrope, a Spanish student kept a blur of rubber balls spinning in the air, and a graduate student tossed his petite blond partner toward the gym's steel rafters. Typically, students end the day exhausted. "Afterward, I want to take a hot shower and do nothing but eat and sleep," says Nanou Perrot, a 22-year-old acrobat from a small town in France. Still, there are rewards. Graduates are virtually guaranteed jobs. By graduation day last year, Savina says, 22 of the 32 seniors had been hired. Some had been recruited months earlier, and a few served as understudies for stars in Moscow circuses. The best students typically wind up working overseas for what, by Russian standards, are fabulous salaries. Those who remain in Russia earn respectable middle-class incomes and are eligible for a state pension after 15 years. Teacher Boris Belokhovstov, a gray-haired athlete with soft blue eyes, was once a star circus acrobat and one of the Soviet system's pampered elite. Today, the veteran teacher's salary is less than $170 a month. But he isn't nostalgic about the glory days of Soviet circuses. Young performers, he says, are better than those of past eras. "As for technical skills? It's been advancing each year," he says. "Not only in this country, but everywhere in the world." A Russian emigre in Sweden persuaded two performers - Henrik Agger, 28, and his 19-year-old partner, Louise Bjurholm - to come to Moscow to hone their acrobatic skills. Agger worked in circuses for years. Bjurholm is a trained dancer. Both say they have made great progress in the past year since they began working with Belokhovstov. Now they sound anxious about leaving. "When you start to learn," Agger says, "you want to learn more and more difficult things." As part of their act, Bjurholm does a handstand on Agger's hands. He tosses her up, flips her and catches her -standing -by her feet. Belokhovstov, Agger says, showed the couple how to make the demanding feat seem effortless. And, they say, he understands how they work together better than they do. "He can just figure out what movements fit us best," Agger says. Generally, the school's foreign students are already performers in European circuses who hope to learn a more traditional style. Many circuses, in an effort to modernize, have de-emphasized the staple feats of physical skill and strength, focusing more on pageantry and drama. "It's music, it's theater, but it's not the circus," says Perrot, the French acrobat. "If Russians went to the circus in Europe, they would say: 'Where is the circus?'" Most of the school's top Russian students hope one day to work for a big-name Western circus, such as Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey in the United States or Cirque du Soleil in France. But the performers who emigrate seldom return. Agger wonders what will happen to the school when teachers such as Belokhovstov retire. "Who will come after him and be like him?" Agger asks. Belokhovstov wonders, too. "It's a complicated question," he says. The collapse of Russia's circus traditions would be a blow to world culture. But Savina, the school's director, says there is no cause for alarm. As long as there are Russians, she says, there will be a circus school. "The circus art is for the fanatics," she says. "They have always existed, and there will always be such people." *******