#9
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
December 14, 2001
THIS IS NOT A CRIME, BUT A MISTAKE
Comments on America's likely withdrawal from the ABM Treaty.
Author: not indicated
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
POLITICAL AND MILITARY ANALYSTS ARE DISCUSSING THE LATEST STATEMENT FROM THE US GOVERNMENT, WHICH INTENDS TO WITHDRAW FROM THE ABM TREATY OF 1972. TO WHAT EXTENT WILL THIS DECISION AFFECT RUSSIA AND ITS PLACE IN THE WORLD? OUR EXPERTS TRY TO ANSWER THIS QUESTION.
The United States is going to withdraw from the ABM Treaty. This treaty is one of the most vulnerable spots of the Russian establishment. President Putin has repeatedly said (including his recent visit to the United States) that the ABM Treaty was a cornerstone for securing strategic stability. The United States authorities did not share this point of view, but they refrained from withdrawing the treaty all by themselves, although Russia was aware of the fact that tearing the treaty was just a matter of time. Nevertheless, Moscow hoped that activization of bilateral relationships, Russia's participation in the anti-terrorism coalition would make Washington count with Russia's interests.in this connection, we turned to experts asking them how Russian-American relations are likely to develop in future, if withdrawal of the US from the treaty implies its unwillingness to taka into consideration Russia's opinion.
Alexei Arbatov, deputy chairman of the Duma committee on defense: "The decision of the president of the United States on withdrawing from the ABM Treaty was not aimed at insulting Russia. But this will lead to it. Firstly, the ABM Treaty is the major document in Russian- American relations in the sphere of limiting strategic weapons and stability. Secondly, the United States does not yet have a program for testing and deploying anti-missile systems, which would call for rejecting the ABM Treaty. The United States could have done a lot of tests and research without withdrawing from the treaty, but adding amendments to it together with Russia. To quote Talleyrand, this move is worse than a crime, it is a huge error. Having done this, the United States has shown that it is going to take decisions by itself, leaving other countries behind the stage. This is a great error in relations with Russia. The decision of the US authorities has delivered a severe blow at Russia under conditions of unprecedented goode relations between the two countries and their military collaboration in the operation against international terrorism. This has also worsened mutual efforts in non-proliferating nuclear weapons and preventing terrorists from getting at them."
Konstantin Kosachev, deputy chairman of the Duma committee on foreign affairs: "The one-sided denouncement of the ABM Treaty of 1972 on the part of the United States can be considered from three points of view: a military, am economic and a political ones. From the military point of view, this decision does not threaten Russia's security much. We possess all necessary technologies for getting over anti-missile systems. It is China who should be really afraid. From the economical point of view, this step of the White House is extremely unfavorable for Russia, it will demand increase in nuclear arsenal. As for the political aspect of the problem, this decision of the United States goes against the new atmosphere of trust and collaboration, set between our countries after the terrorist acts of September 11. The US administration could have expressed good will without driving president Putin into a corner with such statements.
In this situation the reaction of Moscow should be immediate. We should announce to the United States at once that after six month Russia will withdraw from the START-1 Treaty. I would like to remind you that this is the first in the history of the United States one- sided withdrawal from an international treaty."
Andrei Fiodorov, head of the Center for Political Research and Consulting, "This should not be taken as a slap in Russia's face, since we were aware of the US intention to withdraw from the treaty. They did not conceal it. If they announce it in a rather harsh form - like there would be no further consultations - this would be really closer to a slap in the face. If the United States says that it is withdrawing from the treaty, yet it is ready to discuss this problem with Russia, this is another question. I have just come back from Washington, and I have got an impression that the US authorities count on mild reaction of Russia in connection with their withdrawal from the treaty."
Volter Kraskovsky, Colonel-General of aviation, commander of rocket-space defense troops back in 1986-1991, "The United States and Russia are no longer rivals. However, partner relationships between the two countries should not imply concessions and one-sided disarmament from the Russian side (which, unfortunately, has been obvious over the past 15 years). Objectively, the impending withdrawal of the United States from the ABM Treaty leads to spreading indisputable military superiority of the United States on land, in air and in sea to near space. That is why the ABM Treaty of 1972 may undergo only one type of modification - working out and signing a new document by most countries of the world community. It cannot be allowed that only one state dominate in near space and dictate its will.
The one-sided withdrawal from the treaty brings Russia to re- considering the whole system of agreements with the United States, concluded earlier, on limiting strategic weapons and the Treaty on short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. First of all, it seems wise to "freeze" agreements on heavy intercontinental missiles with parting warheads of individual pointing (PW IP). It is them that serve as the best means for overcoming technically perfect anti- missile systems. Despite the fact that these missiles were made in Ukraine in Dnepropetrovsk for the most part, and their warranty lifetime is drawing to an end, they can serve for another 20 years. And during this time a lot might change in the world to a great extent. Besides, it would be good to speed up retooling Topol and Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missiles with PW IP.
Resuming serial production of short- and intermediate-range missiles is of special importance to Russia, since possible threats are situated exactly at such distance from the state frontiers of the Russian Federation. Re-considering of agreements on deploying arms in space is also quite possible."
(Translated by Daria Brunova)
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