#11
Novaya Gazeta
No. 90
December 10-16, 2001
SO FAR, RUSSIA HAS ONLY SCORED A HUMANITARIAN VICTORY
Northern Alliance losing influence in the power struggle in Afghanistan
Author: Yelena Milashina, Sergei Mikhalych, Filipp Petrovich
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE IS UNDER PRESSURE IN AFGHANISTAN. IT STILL RELIES ON RUSSIA AND RUSSIA ALONE. THERE IS SOME TIME FOR POLITICAL MANEUVERING, BUT NOT A LOT OF IT. IT'S BECOMING APPARENT THAT THE AMERICANS ARE MOST LIKELY TO GET CONTROL OVER AFGHANISTAN.
An Afghan update in the wake of US talks on Afghanistan
Hamid Kamzai, a member of the former royal family who organized an anti-Taliban rebellion near Kandahar and is still fighting over there, has been appointed the provisional leader of Afghanistan in the wake of the UN talks on Afghanistan in Bonn.
This choice may be called a compromise which the Northern Alliance was forced to accept. Eager to retain their power, its leaders suggested four candidates for provisional head of the republic. The list did not include Rabbani, General Dustum, or any other leader of the anti-Taliban coalition.
"We have always emphasized our readiness to pas over the power when the city has been liberated," said Foreign Minister Doctor Abdulla. "As for our suggestions, they are a compromise which cannot, however, be called a one hundred percent compromise."
What Abdulla meant by counting percentages would become clear a bit later when he flew to Dushanbe for a meeting with Defense Minister of Russia Sergei Ivanov only two days after the Bonn conference. The Northern Alliance still relies on Russia and Russia alone.
There is some time for political maneuvering, but not a lot of it. The provisional government, where the Northern Alliance's positions remain fairly solid (it controls all security ministries and departments which is of a paramount importance for a country at war) will last six months. Preparations for and organization of Loja Jergu is its major objective. Loja Jergu is a conference of elders representing all social and political forces and all ethnic groups. It is this conference that will have to make a decision on who is going to rule the country - the Americans, Russians, or Afghanis themselves.
Everyone knows after all that all this inter-Afghani strife is a front for interests of Russia and the United States.
America has already taken over some strategically important objects where military bases may be deployed if needed. Abdulla was forced to tactfully duck our direct question concerning the Americans' presence in Afghanistan. "The subject of the American military bases has not been discussed yet," he said.
Muhammad Fakhim is the de facto leader of Afghanistan while Kamzai is away from Kabul, fighting elsewhere. This state of affairs will continue until Kamzai officially assumes the duties of government chairman. Fakhim is much more categorical on the matter of American bases. "They will go away when the counter-terrorism operation is over," he said. "The issue of American bases here is not discussed. There are no preconditions for that..." Moreover, several months ago in his interview with RTR channel Fakhim said, "We cooperate with the Americans while they do not meddle in our domestic affairs."
What about Russia? Soviet military specialists considered themselves absolute masters there for decades. Pressed for money in 1992, Russia left the then-national leader Najibulla without its support and all but voluntarily abandoned its influence with the region. It wants to get it back now.
As matters stand, the Russian presence in Afghanistan is unquestionable even though the rumors of the Russian paratroops' "Pristina-like dash" turned out to be only rumors. There is only an Emergency Ministry base in Kabul. It is not guarded by emergencies workers, of course - but so what? The Center of Disaster Medicine has established a hospital, and the first operation took place several days ago. Specialists have already come to Kabul to study the matter of reconstruction of the Salang tunnel destroyed during the war.
For the time being, Russia dominates only in the humanitarian sphere. "Russia alone fulfills all promises with regard to assistance to Afghanistan," said Refugees Minister Nazari.
It is not bad, but it is cold comfort for the foreign policy ambitions of Russian politicians and generals who backed the Northern Alliance, which is rapidly losing influence. Reports came when we were leaving Bagram that Uzbek General Dustum who had fought on the side of the united anti-Taliban front refused to honor decisions of the Bonn conference and that the northern provinces he controls are beyond the zone of influence of the new government. It so happens that Dustum's decision was made when US Secretary of State Colin Powell was visiting Tashkent.
It certainly seems that Russia's activity in Afghanistan made the Americans think of something beyond the capture of bin Laden.
If we indulge in speculation, it becomes apparent that the Americans are most likely to get control over Afghanistan. Because they have more money to throw around and because they are wise enough not to support the force that tomorrow may lose control over the situation in the country.
As one well-informed Afghan put it, "Russia has spent too long considering Afghanistan from various angles. It is frantic now, but its pockets are empty."
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