#6
Wall Street Journal
December 13, 2001
Russia's Putin Is Likely to Weather U.S. Departure From
ABM Treaty
By CARLA ANNE ROBBINS and GUY CHAZAN
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
While Russian politicians angrily protested President Bush's decision to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty, U.S. officials predicted that Russian President Vladimir Putin would easily ride out any domestic crisis and said he has committed to matching Mr. Bush's pledge of a two-thirds reduction in offensive nuclear weapons.
U.S. officials said that they have spent months preparing the Russian leader for the move. At their November summit in Washington Mr. Bush told Mr. Putin "One day I'm going to call you and say it's time," recalled a U.S. official. On Friday, Mr. Bush made that call.
Since then U.S. diplomats have worked with the Russians to orchestrate statements intended to minimize the political fallout -- both for Mr. Putin and for Mr. Bush, who Wednesday was strongly criticized by Democratic leaders for abandoning the treaty.
U.S. officials said that in a statement Thursday Mr. Bush would give formal notice that the U.S. is withdrawing from the 1972 treaty that bans national missile defenses but also would strongly affirm the "broader" U.S.-Russian relationship. Mr. Putin, in turn, was expected to express his disappointment but also affirm the relationship and back it up with a commitment to match or better 2,200 long-range nuclear weapons.
Bush Is Expected to Announce Withdrawal of U.S. From Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (Dec. 12)
"I expect the Russians will have numbers of their own, or say they're ready to meet President Bush's," said another U.S. official, adding that Mr. Putin's statement "should undermine any arguments that this will fuel a new arms race."
However, the initial Russian reaction Wednesday was far from enthusiastic. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov told reporters in Brasilia that Russia "would very much regret if [the U.S.] left the treaty," Reuters reported. "What worries us is strategic stability."
Russian politicians from across the political spectrum were furious, predicting that the move would be seen as a major defeat for Mr. Putin and the aggressively pro-American policies he has pursued since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
"Russians were just beginning to believe they could have a strategic partnership with America and now this happens," fumed Vladimir Lukin, a liberal deputy and former Russian ambassador to the U.S. "The U.S. has shown that it will always do exactly what it wants, whenever it wants, without ever taking our opinion into account." Dmitry Rogozin, chairman of parliament's foreign-affairs committee, warned that Russia could respond by pulling out of other arms-control agreements.
Since Sept. 11 Mr. Putin has been willing to break Cold War taboos, most dramatically by agreeing to the stationing of U.S. troops close to Russia's borders in Central Asia and endorsing the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan.
Mr. Putin has received tangible benefits in return, including Mr. Bush's commitment to deep nuclear-weapons cuts and support for Russia's bid to join the World Trade Organization. This week, Secretary of State Colin Powell said that the two sides would work to codify weapons cuts in some formal agreement, as Mr. Putin has been insisting. The first U.S. official said that Washington will look seriously at purchasing Russian "components" for the Pentagon's missile-defense program.
The official also said that U.S. efforts to postpone a withdrawal by negotiating an agreement that would allow the Pentagon to test technologies banned by the treaty had quickly foundered over Moscow's insistence that it be allowed to vet each test. "If this decision had come eight months ago, I think it would have been a real problem in U.S.-Russia relations," said the official. "But we've had a period of time now in which a lot of the elements are coming into place for a new relationship."
But many politicians and commentators in Russia say that Mr. Putin -- who has built his reputation on tough-mindedness -- hasn't gotten nearly enough and looks increasingly the loser in his dealings with the U.S.
In Washington, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D., S.D.) warned that the withdrawal would strain relations with Russia and China just when Washington needs their support for the war on terrorism. "I think it undermines the fragile coalition that we have with our allies," he said.
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