#9
Versty
No. 141
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
ON RUSSIA'S CIS STRATEGY
In the ten years since its establishment, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has been nothing other than a platform for advancing international initiatives, says Konstantin ZATULIN, Director of the Institute of the CIS.
We see two parallel processes going on in the CIS. On the one hand, the Soviet Union, which legally ended its history ten years ago, virtually exists. Many people who cross the border from Russia to Ukraine or Kazakhstan are sincerely outraged when border guards ask to see their passports or the customs officers want to inspect their luggage. And this is logical, for they were born, studied and worked in one state. The virtual Soviet Union is a factor of policy whose authors still have to bow to the past. On the other hand, we have the practice of international relations within the CIS and CIS structures that were created ten years ago to ensure a civilised divorce for Soviet republics.
But these processes do not change the current essence of the CIS, which remains a declarative organisation. Russia still maintains a measure of influence in the CIS, which is why it does not want it to die too soon. But it is becoming more and more important to understand the true meaning of this organisation. As I see it, the meaning of the CIS should not be overestimated and neither should Russia sacrifice its national interests for the CIS.
I would define the CIS as an association created in the interests of the older generation, people who continue to live in the virtual Soviet Union and have common historical and cultural roots. The CIS is a club. It never was, nor can it be an organisation that made, implemented or controlled serious plans, or an organisation that actually integrated the former Soviet republics.
When I say that the CIS is a club I don't want to humiliate it. One needs a platform for voicing ideas. The CIS is useful in this capacity, useful for advancing ideas, even if they are not meant to be fully implemented.
Does Russia need the CIS? This question is not as simple as it seems.
The power crisis and economic and social problems, which accompanied the disintegration of the Soviet Union, faced Russia with the choice of way of further development. If Russia becomes a country that mostly supplies power and other resources to the industrialised West, it will not need further integration with CIS members, because in this case they will become a burden to Russia. But if Russia preserves at least part of its industrial potential, science and high-tech industries, it will surely need to restore economic ties and technological chains that were disrupted by the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The bulk of the CIS countries seriously lag behind in acquiring the minimum set of standards necessary for a democratic regime, which is a major hindrance to the genuine CIS integration and the growth of Russia's influence in the CIS space. It is indicative that certain politicians and officials believe that the absence of genuine democratic procedures in the CIS countries is facilitating Russia's relations with the elite in these countries, because this allegedly helps them to reach agreements in behind-the-scenes talks with these countries' top leaders. This is a grave illusion.
First, authoritarian rulers easily violate such secret agreements. Second, in this case the CIS public is completely excluded from the integration process, which becomes the cause for bureaucrats. And third, this seriously limits the investment possibilities of Russian capital and the lobbying efforts of Russian financial-industrial groups.
What strategy should Russia pursue with regard to the CIS?
I am convinced that we need integration, and we should energetically facilitate it but not with all CIS states. We must spotlight painful problems in the countries with which we intend to become closer. And we must always think if these problems can be better resolved through integration or a policy of demonstrative pragmatism in bilateral relations. We must categorically rule out actions that would be applauded by the leaders of neighbouring countries but run contrary to the interests of Russia.
The friendship of Russia and Ukraine is sacred, of course, but even for this friendship we should not tolerate things that Russian representatives tolerated during the celebration of the tenth anniversary of Ukraine's independence. The speech of President Kuchma was filled with attacks at Russia and stones thrown at the Moscow Patriarchy. And after that Russia signed an agreement on restructuring Ukraine's gas debts, actually writing off a debt of 1.5 billion dollars!
The time has come to start protecting our national interests. This will also help the CIS to survive, for let's face the truth that the CIS will not live a day without Russia.
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