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ANALYSIS-Putin navy purge is shot across military's bows
By Richard Balmforth

MOSCOW, Dec 3 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin's purge of the navy's upper ranks sent shock waves through Russia's top brass on Monday and analysts said the move could foreshadow a deeper Kremlin drive against military opponents of reform.

Russian media, dismissing assertions to the contrary by chief of staff Anatoly Kvashnin, said Putin's sweep of the top echelons of the Northern Fleet was clearly linked to the Kursk nuclear submarine catastrophe.

The August 2000 disaster, in which 118 crew died, has haunted Putin for whom it represented a crushing personal failure after only a few months in power.

But analysts said Putin's "purge of the admirals" on Saturday, in which he demoted three top navy commanders and sacked another eight admirals, was more than a public relations move to help him exorcise his personal demon.

"These sackings...are a demonstration of power. He needs to show his power to the military and show them that he is not a man to be argued with," said independent military analyst Alexander Golts.

The purge evoked memories of Mikhail Gorbachev's June 1987 shake-up after German teenager Mathias Rust made a mockery of Soviet air defences to land a small plane on Red Square. And it took place amid signs of tension between Putin and the military.

DIFFERENCES OVER CONSCRIPTION

Analysts say Putin may be losing patience at a lack of progress towards converting the Russian military machine from its Soviet configuration, designed to be capable of defeating the West in a world war, into a force able to meet 21st century security challenges.

"Putin has become convinced that military reform is not working. What alarms him is that the military budget is growing but improvements are not being made," Golts said.

He is especially meeting opposition from the military over plans to end conscription and put the army on a contract basis.

The conscription issue was believed to be one of the topics which figured at a November 27 meeting of top security ministers called to discuss the state of Russia's military readiness.

Analysts said the fact Economic Development Minister German Gref had made the keynote speech to the Security Council suggested Putin had focused it on the raw economic reality of continuing to run the armed forces along old Soviet lines.

Other sore points in Putin's relations with the military include his decision to close a major spy base in Cuba, announced at a stormy meeting with top brass earlier this year.

His moves to forge a closer partnership with NATO have also ruffled the feathers of some hawks, analysts say.

SACKINGS FOLLOWED KURSK REPORT

Putin's purge came hours after he received a preliminary report into the August 2000 naval exercises during which the Kursk sank. After hearing the report from Prosecutor General Vladimir Ustinov, Putin was quoted as saying it was too early to issue a definitive ruling on what caused the disaster.

The vessel sank to the bottom of the Barents Sea after two unexplained explosions on board. Russian officials say an onboard explosion of a torpedo sank the Kursk, but what triggered the initial mishap remained a mystery.

The disaster, the worst in modern Russian naval history, saw Putin savaged for remaining on holiday and failing to take charge of the crisis. Officials denied a direct link with the Kursk disaster and said the sanctions against the Northern Fleet leadership related to failures in training activities.

Among those axed, along with Northern Fleet commander Admiral Vyacheslav Popov, was Vice-Admiral Mikhail Motsak who last month stood by periodic explanations that the Kursk had sunk after hitting a foreign submarine.

The channel TV6 suggested on Sunday that Putin, who is trying to forge closer relations with the United States and the West, was increasingly finding such comments embarrassing.

"Perhaps the president has had enough of constantly hearing from the Northern Fleet command hints that the vessel was destroyed by American or British submarines...and that the new allies of Russia are covering up the real reason for the tragedy," TV6 commented.

The daily Vremya Novostei, pointing to a possible next target for Putin, wrote of recent blunders in the Pacific Fleet.

These, it said, included explosions and fires, mishaps involving ballistic missiles, accidental exchanges of fire between warships and the loss of cruise missiles in exercises.

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