#8
Vek
No. 47
November 30, 2001
THE FIRST SYSTEM FAILURE
President Putin needs to face a new problem: domestic politics
Author: Aleksei Bogaturov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
THERE IS A REAL PROBLEM INSIDE PUTIN'S TEAM. FROM THE OUTSIDE, THE ARGUMENT SEEMS TO BE BASED ON FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES. HOWEVER, IN FACT, IT IS AN ISSUE OF REWARDS FOR SUPPORT. THE NEW PEOPLE BELIEVE IN THEIR MORAL RIGHT TO HAVE THIS REWARD, WHILE PUTIN'S REWARDING RESOURCES ARE RATHER SCARCE AND HARD TO DEVELOP.
The autumn rush to the West caused an increase of internal tension in Putin's system. If yesterday the president was a consensus figure for both the public opinion and the major grouping of his surrounding, today about half of his most energetic associates are greatly disappointed with the president. The dislike between the liberals and the radical statesmen is also growing. The former stand their grounds in the presidential administration, the latter insist on speaking on behalf of the security structures. The president controls both grouping with the help of the so-called St. Petersburg grouping, that has long stopped being composed of St. Petersburg natives only, and is at present a group of people who are loyal to President Putin more than to any political idea. They are being successively appointed at the key positions. This way of ruling has been criticized for two years, however, so far it has worked without failures. Only Putin's friendship with President George Bush threatened everything as it frightened the radicals and provoked their half-concealed resistance and half-open threats.
It seems, closing with the West must have increased the influence of the liberals. However, either the Russian liberals are weaker than they seem to be or they have lost the right moment and missed their chance but at present they seem to position themselves as defending side instead of counter-attacking. The canning Chubais started to urgently gather together the scattered strugglers for the liberal idea in order not to lose each other. The elections are close but the rights do not have a god except Chubais and they know it as well as he does. None of the liberals dare to force the events. The things are opposite among Putin's supporters, the people who came to power together with the president or were lucky to stick to him. They are having an impatience surge, a syndrome of fallen hope: after two years Putin in fact changed the course of the country, but in the absolutely unexpected direction. The media constantly informs us of what the president has achieved, though they are afraid to write about what he has not achieved. However, the more noticeable the western turn is the more annoyed the media speak about it. The demands are not great but threatening. Firstly, they demand the connections with Yeltsin's family to be broken and the anti-corruption cases to be instituted not in micro-dozes like at present, but in full. Secondly, in the course of disclosures, the properties should be redistributed in favor of new people, as they have been unable to grow rich over the past two years and they have not been allowed in the clan of old-new tycoons that quickly changed to Putin's taste. Actually, this is the main source of wrath of Putin's supporters. Thirdly, if the first and the second are not realized in full, as the president does not like taking risks, it is necessary to dismiss the cabinet of ministers or by some other means give Putin's new people an opportunity to get top positions in the corps of supreme governing bureaucracy.
This would allow them to compensate for the impossibility to break through to direct controlling of large massive of former and present state properties.
The stableness of Putin's positions is a de-facto union with the major proprietors of the 1990s. The source of the president's weakness is the impossibility to reward the new supporters for their support comparing to what the people who analogically supported Yeltsin received in the times of total privatization.
It is sad and funny at the same time: the new Putin's supporters are murmuring in unison with Boris Berezovsky, who is still dreaming of an upheaval. Are new people together with Berezovsky? It seems to be very far-stretched, but at the same time rough and possible theory. No wonder if the latter finds a way to offer some one of the former sponsoring (as is known, Berezovsky structures sponsored even the Communists as the goal is the main thing for them).
So, there is a real problem inside Putin's team. From the outside, the argument seems to be based on foreign political issues. However, in fact, it is an issue of rewards for support. The new people believe in their moral right to have this reward, while Putin's rewarding resources are rather scarce and hard to develop. All this may lead to a loyalty crisis, which will be the first system failure over the time of Putin's presidency. The president that is spoiled by the consensus has not faced such an opponent yet. What will he do this time?
(Translated by Arina Yevtikhova )
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