#5
From: "Robert Freedman" <rofreedman@home.com>
Subject: COMING TESTS FOR US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS: WILL PUTIN HELP BUSH ON IRAQ?
Date: Wed, 28 Nov 2001 0
COMING TESTS FOR US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS: WILL PUTIN
HELP BUSH ON IRAQ?
By Robert O. Freedman
Dr. Robert O. Freedman is Peggy Meyerhoff Pearlstone Professor of Political Science at Baltimore Hebrew University and Visiting Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University. Among his publications are : MOSCOW AND THE MIDDLE EAST, ISRAEL'S FIRST FIFTY YEARS, and the forthcoming, THE MIDDLE EAST ENTERS THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
As the US and Russia bask in the warm afterglow of the Bush-Putin Summit, and Russia is even being considered for future NATO membership, several tests will soon be coming that will prove whether Russia is indeed now a friend and ally of the United States, or whether Putin joined the US-led anti-terrorist alliance just to get support for Russia's suppression of the Chechen rebellion.
The first test involves the upcoming vote at the UN Security Council on the possible tightening of military sanctions against Iraq. In July Moscow vetoed a US-British proposal which, in return for easing restrictions on the importation of civilian goods, would have tightened the sanctions on possible military(or dual use) items and at the same time stepped up efforts to stop Iraqi oil smuggling, which enables Saddam Hussein to evade the restrictions on Iraqi oil revenues imposed by the 1996 UN "Oil-for-food" arrangement. If Moscow again vetoes the US-British effort, Putin's reliability as an ally would come into question.
An even more serious test would come in the event of a US attack on Iraq. If the US, following the defeat of the Taliban in Afghanistan, concludes that there is a convincing link between Iraq and the terrorists who perpetrated the September 11 attacks, and/or spread anthrax in the United States, and then launches an attack against the regime of Saddam Hussein, how will Russia react? In December 1998, when the Clinton Administration, along with Britain, attacked Iraq following Saddam Hussein's repeated interference with UN UNSCOM inspectors who were trying to ferret out his weapons of mass destruction(WMD) , Moscow denounced the joint US-British attack and led the effort at the United Nations to dismantle UNSCOM and replace its director, Richard Butler. The somewhat weaker UNMOVIC inspection regime was voted in to replace UNSCOM. Moscow abstained on the UNMOVIC vote which would have allowed Iraq to import civilian goods for a trial period of several months in return for allowing UN inspectors back into Iraq . The issue, however, became moot because Iraq rejected the UNMOVIC system and refused to allow UN inspectors to return.
Unlike December 1998, when the United States was split over the attacks because of the Monica Lewinsky affair and the impeachment crisis, at the present time George W. Bush would enjoy overwhelming US public support, should he decide to attack Iraq. America's European allies, however, are far less supportive of an attack on Iraq, and almost all the Arab countries oppose it, as does the US's only strong Moslem ally, NATO member Turkey. Given this situation, Moscow could provide a very important service both to the United States and to the world community by strongly pressuring Iraq to allow UN inspectors back into the country, and once there, to give them free access to Iraqi facilities. Such a move could avert a US attack, because President Bush has put Iraq's WMD facilities at the top of his list. Given the current climate, the outcome would be a win-win one for all concerned. Saddam Hussein would survive, but without the WMD capability to threaten the world. Terrorists would have one fewer place to get WMD, and countless Iraqi--and American--lives would be saved. Perhaps most important of all, the US-Russian relationship would pass a very important test, thus opening up many other areas of potential cooperation between Washington and Moscow. Whether Putin, who has already angered his generals and security services by embracing the US anti-terrorist coalition, would be willing to exert the necessary pressure on Russia's erstwhile ally, Iraq, will be a vital test for the Russian-American relationship.
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