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ANALYSIS-Russia, NATO mull risks and benefits from new ties
By Richard Balmforth and John Chalmers

MOSCOW/BRUSSELS, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Moves by NATO and Russia to boost ties to match their common fight against terrorism may face opposition both from some European allies and Moscow's military, analysts said on Sunday.

President Vladimir Putin seems to have won a key concession from the United States and its allies: NATO is now mulling a proposal that could give Russia equal status with the Alliance's 19 members in working out policies on some security issues.

The move, the focus of talks with NATO Secretary General George Robertson in Moscow last week, seems like an overdue payback for Putin, who quickly threw his weight behind the U.S. campaign in Afghanistan after the September 11 airliner attacks.

On the face of it, this will help Putin handle criticism by his hawks that he is giving away too much to the United States.

Crucially, it will allow him to tell his political and military elites that, although he cannot stop NATO enlarging eastwards, he has now won a real voice inside the NATO camp.

But both Russian analysts and Western diplomats in Brussels said talk of radically upgraded cooperation between the two former Cold War foes had to be treated with caution given the limited success of a first attempt at partnership in 1997.

Independent Russian defence analyst Alexander Golts said it was "a first step" whose importance should not be exaggerated.

Describing the new moves as "opportunistic," he said the huge gulf between thinking in the armed forces of the two sides meant that "sooner or later we are doomed to new conflicts."

CONCERN AMONG NATO ALLIES

In Brussels, Western officials said a British proposal for a new body that would give Russia equal rights in discussion of certain security matters with the allies had generated some concern among other alliance members, including France.

Some allies were upset by the speed of events. "The words 'human rights' do not even seem to come up in dialogue with Russia anymore. Frankly, some people have been rather critical of how much hugging is taking place," one official said.

Robertson left Moscow on Friday after two days of talks with Putin and Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov.

A steady improvement in relations, begun in 1997 when Boris Yeltsin was in the Kremlin, had stalled on differences over NATO's 1999 air campaign against Slobodan Milosevic's Yugoslavia over Kosovo.

Despite Russian participation in NATO-led peacekeeping in the former Yugoslavia, ties had never really recovered.

The proposal by British Prime Minister Tony Blair calls for formation of a Russia/North Atlantic Council (R-NAC) which would have a mandate to discuss terrorism and certain "soft" security areas such as weapons non-proliferation and peacekeeping.

In remarks to Reuters, Robertson said it was implied that Russia would have the right of veto in this body like any of the 19 Western allies -- a status it does not enjoy under the present '19+1' NATO-Russia Permanent Joint Council.

Defence issues involving only the NATO members would remain the sole prerogative of the "allies-only" 19-member North Atlantic Council.

BLAIR PROPOSAL "BACKED BY U.S."

The Blair proposal, waiting for Putin when he returned home from a Texas summit with President George W. Bush on November 16, meshed neatly with the Kremlin leader's call in the United States for a new look at NATO-Russia relations.

Blair acted with Washington's blessing, the Brussels official said.

Ivanov said Moscow liked the British proposal and agreed on the need for a "search for a mechanism that will...allow a political sphere of interaction in the framework of the 20."

Putin's attitude towards NATO is in line with his policy of seeking to integrate Russia with the West. But he has to contend with a military that has a visceral mistrust of the 52-year-old Western alliance set up to contain Soviet military power.

On NATO enlargement, which he is powerless to stop, Putin has prudently softened his line. But analysts say he may still be politically exposed next November when NATO decides to admit more new members, possibly this time the three Baltic countries.

"If the situation becomes tougher because of economic difficulties, the army will not very happy about Mr Putin...This could be a basis for those who want to accuse him of betraying national interests," Golts said.

Golts said Putin's pledge to Robertson that Russia did not seek to join NATO had been easy to give.

"Russia knows very well it does not meet any of the criteria for membership," he said, arguing that no real reform of the army had begun, details of military spending were kept secret and the armed forces were not subject to democratic control.

SEVERAL NATO ALLIES UNCONVINCED

Robertson will also face hard questioning when he gives an account of his Moscow talks to his political masters in Brussels this week.

Michael Emerson, senior research fellow at the Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies, foresaw unease among many of the allies, as well as a general willingness to engage with Russia.

"There are all sorts of ways of enhancing the cooperation with NATO. Everything except Article V (NATO's mutual defence clause) is open for developing ad hoc cooperative relationships."

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