#11
The Russia Journal
November 23-29, 2001
Challenging times for Putin
By OTTO LATSIS
A stormy sea seems an apt description for Russia’s political landscape at the moment. Only yesterday everything was calm: The economy was growing even though the United States had gone into decline, budget revenue was above plan, the country was meeting its foreign-debt commitments with ease and President Vladimir Putin’s policies had widespread support among the population. But all this changed after the events of Sept. 11, which, it seemed, shouldn’t have affected Russia.
Putin’s declaration of support for the United States in the fight against international terrorism set off the first sparks of this new dissatisfaction. The Communist Party (KPRF), which had initially been very loyal to Putin and supported many of his decisions, began criticizing him sharply.
Russia’s new turn toward America was not met with widespread public support; indeed, almost the majority disapproves of the policy. More significantly, even the first statement on the matter by someone as close to Putin as Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov differed considerably from the president’s line.
This raises the question of the overall mood among top security ministry officials – a factor that has often been decisive in Russian politics. That the authorities have just promised the military a significant wage rise is a sign they too are worried about the mood in the Army.
In a matter of days, oil export prices – one of the main pillars of economic growth during Putin’s presidency – have tumbled. This has also thrown into chaos the definitive approval of the 2002 federal budget. The additional revenue reserve fund that should have been the budget’s biggest innovation now looks like a mockery. Short of oil prices returning to their previous level, which is highly unlikely, main revenue, and not just additional revenue, will be under threat.
Turmoil is also brewing in Putin’s entourage. Former prime minister and head of the FSB Sergei Stepashin, now head of the Audit Chamber, has launched attacks against several prominent government members.
At first, Stepashin looked to be carrying out political orders from Putin, who seemed to have decided the time had come to get rid of people close to Boris Yeltsin such as Railways Minister Nikolai Aksyonenko. But then he suddenly launched a barrage of criticism against Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, one of Putin’s own appointees. Kasyanov responded in kind, and Putin was silent all the while.
At the same time, Beslan Gantamirov, one of Moscow’s most prominent figures in Chechnya, publicly said that he wouldn’t accept any negotiations with representatives of Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov. But at precisely this moment, contacts were being organized with Maskahdov’s people on direct orders from Putin. Gen. Viktor Kazantsev, Putin’s appointed representative in these negotiations, was forced to publicly disavow Gantamirov’s words.
Compared to Yeltsin’s years, this political turmoil looks routine, even calm. But then, Putin’s time in office has been spectacularly conflict-free and smooth sailing up until now. Everything seemed to fall into place in politics and in the economy. No one can say whether Putin knows how to handle tough times because he hasn’t had any real tough times so far.
Only now the troubles are beginning, both at home and abroad, both in politics and in the economy. These challenges will give political analysts the chance to learn much more about Putin than was previously possible.
Will the government find a way to deal with falling oil prices and settle its relations with OPEC? Will it resolve the 2002 budget problem and sort out the mess in Chechnya, and will Putin be able to convince Russian society of the need for new relations with the United States? These are today’s, not tomorrow’s questions, and the answers will define Russia’s future for a long time to come.
In light of all this, the pompous Civil Forum, which took place in the Kremlin after lengthy preparations, looked anachronistic. The forum had the ambitious and ill-defined task of helping form civil society in Russia. It all looks reminiscent of Soviet-era propaganda activities or of the PR shows that were part of the now-gone earlier days of Putin’s presidency.
The forum has no relation to any of the real problems that have descended on Putin from all sides. It hasn’t helped consolidate public nonpolitical organizations around the Kremlin. Indeed, the forum only served to irritate the human-rights organizations – the most authoritative voices in Russia’s civil society. Debates on whether or not to enter dialogue with a government still waging war in Chechnya and putting restrictions on freedom of speech split the human-rights campaigners, and they blame the Kremlin for this split. Instead of getting support, the Kremlin came under fire before the forum even opened. But criticism is the last thing Putin needs at this unsettled moment.
Compared to all that Russia has been through over the last decade, these new tumults pose no serious danger. It’s possible to overcome these challenges successfully. But it’s also possible to make mistakes that will only lead to new challenges. All attention is on Putin now, for much is in his hands.
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