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International Herald Tribune
November 21, 2001
The World Needs a Global Alliance for Security
By Graham Allison, Karl Kaiser and Sergei Karaganov
Mr. Allison is director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs of the J.F. Kennedy School of Government of Harvard University. Mr. Kaiser is director of the German Council on Foreign Relations, in Berlin. Mr. Karaganov is chairman of the presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, in Moscow. They contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune.
CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts Sept. 11 did not suddenly produce a new era. Rather, it forced even romantics to recognize brute facts that had already become a new reality.
Super-empowering technologies that permit small groups to do damage which heretofore was an exclusive domain of national armies have combined with decades of globalization that erodes barriers to cross-border transactions. These forces defined the state of global interdependence at the close of the last century.
The 1990s were a decade of lost opportunities. Celebrating victory in the Cold War, the West turned inward. Russia struggled through a series of crises as it attempted to transform itself into a democratic society. Enlargement of NATO responded to security concerns of some Central European countries but disturbed relations with Russia and contributed nothing to dealing with the new threats on the horizon. India and Pakistan conducted open tests and declared themselves nuclear weapon states. Dozens of countries sought biological weapons, missiles and even nuclear weapons. The combination of inattention, traditionalist thinking and inadequate responses left the globe "without adult supervision" - undermining global governance and leaving multilateral organizations, treaties and the United Nations weakened.
All the while the gap between rich and poor countries grew, and resentment mounted as the information revolution beamed images of the affluent North to hundreds of millions of poor in the South. A profound sense of technological backwardness, deprivation and even hopelessness has been the consequence and contributes to extremism, notably in Muslim countries. The almost universal sympathy of the international community for victims of the Sept. 11 terrorist assault provides grounds for hope. The coalition of states assembled against the Qaida terrorists is unprecedented. But beyond Afghanistan, if the great powers are to seize this opportunity to make a more stable world, they will have to demonstrate not just capacity but willingness to act, so as to shape something more sustainable than an ad hoc alliance against Osama bin Laden and the Taliban.
For as far as the eye can see, modern civilized societies will be engaged in a war against global terrorism. Success will require more comprehensive, more extensive and deeper cooperation among intelligence, police, customs, financial institutions and other agencies than heretofore judged feasible.
Moreover, the coalition of modern societies must recognize that the struggle against terrorism involves a war in which military might is essential but insufficient. Values, ideals, ideas and actions will be decisive in the battle for "hearts and minds."
Isolating terrorist extremists by finding ways to separate them from the religious and societal seas in which they swim will require demonstrable commitments beyond most leaders' imagination.
Helping failing states become prosperous and modern, engaging millions of individuals in a dialogue in which modern societies listen as well as preach, and mounting an information strategy no less robust than the "free world's" campaign against communism - all this is unlikely to be shorter or cheaper than the four-decade-long, $10 trillion Cold War.
How is sustained cooperation among powers that have the capacity and will to act in concert to prevent and combat terrorism to be organized? In the 19th century, within the European arena, the Concert of Europe addressed the analogous threat of its era.
For these 21st century challenges, NATO is inadequate, since it is by definition European-centered. A further enlargement of NATO to include Russia represents a serious option to enhance stability and would be far superior to an alliance of Russia with NATO, building on the present NATO-Russia Council. Such an arrangement leaves Russia in a no-man's-land as a semi-partner and semi-adversary.
We propose that the great powers consider a new alliance, a Global Alliance for Security, starting with the Group of Eight and its modes of operation. The mission of the new alliance should be to prevent and fight terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the infrastructure of international criminal activities and drug traffic that feed terrorist networks. It should also address the causes of terrorism in failed or failing political regimes and societies.
A special effort should be made to include China in this alliance, and in due course, according to the strategic needs of the group, other responsible countries that share this alliance's objectives and are prepared to contribute significantly to their achievement.
The alliance should be institutionalized by treaty and have a small secretariat, a council and action-oriented working groups cooperating closely with the United Nations, organizations like NATO and the European Union in shaping strategies and pursuing actions to defeat global terrorism.
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