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ANALYSIS-NATO set to open doors wide in a year's time
By Sean Maguire
WARSAW, Nov 20 (Reuters) - With a year still to go before NATO issues membership invitations, the Alliance looks ready to embark on its most ambitious expansion yet, with entry for the former Soviet Baltic states all but assured.
Eastern European hopefuls are increasingly confident that the Prague summit scheduled for November 21-22, 2002, will agree to expand the Western defence alliance up to Russia's doorstep, embracing them in the security guarantee they have long coveted.
With NATO working on consensus nothing will be settled until the 19 heads of state gather in the Czech conference hall, which last saw world prominence when besieged by anti-globalisation protestors during an International Monetary Fund meet in 2000.
But strong U.S. backing for expansion, muted Russian opposition, a desire to spread stability in the post-Sept 11 world and NATO's changing role in the wake of the terror attacks on the United States argue for a broad enlargement.
"Given what has happened in the last few months its almost inconceivable there won't be enlargement and its more likely to be higher rather than smaller numbers," said Philip Gordon, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute in Washington.
"Now it seems almost certain to be four countries and may perhaps be as many as seven," he added.
Slovenia, which missed out in 1997 when the first Warsaw pact countries were invited to join, as well as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, look set for an invite, along with Slovakia, if elections next year return a pro-Western government.
"Is it going to be five or seven invitees is the question that I suspect remains," said Simon Lunn, Secretary-General of NATO's parliamentary arm. "There are most questions still over Bulgaria and Romania."
BUSH SPEECH KEY
The sea change in thinking on enlargement came in June, when an informal summit of NATO leaders in Brussels took the "zero option" for enlargement off the table and President George Bush offered a ringing endorsement of NATO growth in a Warsaw speech.
"We should not calculate how little we can get away with, but how much we can do to advance the cause of freedom," said Bush, in words warmly welcomed in the Baltics, which had feared Russia might secure a veto on NATO reaching into its old empire.
"The Warsaw speech was a real turning point," said Giedrius Cekuolis, a Lithuanian deputy foreign minister. Since June, he added, the attacks on the United States had served to strengthen enlargement by boosting notions of solidarity and loyalty.
"Now the geopolitical climate is favourable for enlargement, including the new possibilities for NATO-Russia relations," said Cekuolis.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has softened outright hostility to Baltic membership, saying he still dislikes the concept but cannot prevent any country pursuing its own security goals. That in turn has eased European concerns on the Baltics.
Instead, Russia appears to be seeking, and may receive, an upgraded relationship with NATO, reflecting the new mood of partnership with the West in the anti-terror campaign.
There has even been talk of Russia one day joining NATO, although no one expects such a move at Prague, if ever.
ITS POLITICS, NOT THE MILITARY
Admitting more ex-communist states to NATO, adding to Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic who joined in 1999, will be a reward for successful political and economic reforms but add little or nothing to the alliance's military strength.
There is less concern about that now than during the first round of eastward enlargement, reflecting NATO's continued evolution to a political rather than defence body. Hopefuls are judged on much more than military readiness.
NATO officials are silent on membership prospects, refusing to pre-judge the issue and lessen the incentive to reform.
"We are quite encouraged by what we are hearing but the message from our side is that there is no complacency," said Ivan Kolcok, Slovak foreign ministry security policy director.
Slovakia was barred from NATO previously because of the authoritarian rule of ex-premier Vladimir Meciar. If his HZDS party, Slovakia's most popular, returns to power in autumn 2002 polls Bratislava's hopes of NATO membership will be dashed.
REGATTA PRINCIPLE
Membership for Macedonia and Albania, both recognised as candidates at NATO's Washington summit in 1999, is a far more distant prospect and most discussion now centres on the reform progress of Bulgaria, and particularly impoverished Romania.
"They are limping economically and to a degree politically," said William Hopkinson, a British strategic analyst. "But in their favour is the argument that you should bring in the lame to encourage them, not just make way for the fit."
France lobbied heavily for Romania in 1997 but was thwarted by the United States. It is expected to push hard for Bucharest again, arguing, along with Italy and Turkey, that NATO needs a stronger southern European dimension and a Balkan foothold.
That might be less acceptable to the U.S. Senate, which has to ratify new memberships by a two-thirds majority. The Balts are more effective lobbyists in Washington than the southerners.
Accepting the Baltics but not Romania and Bulgaria would leave the Alliance open to the charge of expanding only where it faces no threat rather than to areas where security is needed.
To remove the threat of an impasse in horse trading over invitations, some suggest conditional invites could be issued to potential new members, keeping the NATO door open but ensuring reforms stay on track, on the so-called "regatta principle."
While procedurally more complex this may bridge divisions among the allies, Gordon argued. He forecast invitations for the five frontrunners in Prague plus firm promises to Sofia and Bucharest.
"The advantages of enlargement far outweigh the disadvantages of dilution," argues Lunn. "We are in a new world, a new environment after Sept 11. People think these countries will be a net plus for NATO, even with seven more at the table."
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