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#10
Vek
No. 45
November 16, 2001
DOES PUTIN HAVE ENOUGH TIME?
Will President Putin run in the next presidential election?

Author: Sergei Norka
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

THE PRESIDENT SEEMS TO HAVE CHOSEN "SLIP-KNOT" TACTICS, WHICH ENABLE HIM TO SLOWLY BUT SURELY TIE THE KNOT AROUND THE NECKS OF THOSE WHO INTERPRET DEMOCRACY AS ARBITRARINESS AND PERMISSIVENESS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT SUCH TACTICS TAKE TIME, AND THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF IT IN ONE PRESIDENTIAL TERM.

"Who are you, Mr. Putin?" we asked a year and a half ago. We have not received an answer so far.

In these terms, the choice of Yeltsin's successor is very interesting: it was made by the top and supported from the bottom. Judging by the image of the incumbent president, both hoped to finally have the notorious "iron hand" that has been the object of desire since the early 1990s. However, there is reason to believe that a part of tycoons also hoped to have a strong hand, as they needed to securely protect all they had stolen before. It is rather hard to do this under real democracy, as real democracy is nothing but a dictatorship of the law, and all are equal to it.

The latest events and activities of the members of the presidential team give grounds for belief that there are finally real democratic changes in the country the law will no longer be nothing.

The only question is: will the president have enough resources to settle a real democracy in the country?

The first and foremost resource is the firm decision of the president to settle a real democracy as a basis of the system for ruling the economy and the society. Second, it is his firm decision to finish all the initiatives. And third, it is presence of a minimum of apt associates. And of course, the class of playing is also important.

At present it is rather hard to respond all these questions, as the playing class of the president is of the highest level. Putin obviously chose the image of a manager who is unwilling to participate in political intrigues like his predecessor. Another characteristic feature of Putin's mentality is his habit to conceal his intentions from everyone, including the closest surrounding. However, the mentality of the current president is also very complex, he is not only an intelligence officer, but he is also a lawyer, and the law for him is the same as the law for a businessman, official, or politicians. The president seems to have chosen "slip-knot" tactics, which enable him to slowly but surely tie the knot around the necks of those who interpret democracy as arbitrariness and permissiveness. The problem is that such tactics take time, and there may not be enough of it, as many people expect much from Putin.

Undoubtedly, if real democracy starts attacking, Putin will have to face severe resistance from all circles, from tycoons who are supported by top-ranking officials, to the army of top managers of Yeltsin's era, who may have concerns about the equality of all before the law. The means and methods of the fight may greatly vary. However, look at Boris Berezovsky's statement that President Putin will be ousted before the end of his presidential term. Judging by the political and economic situation in Russia, all the legal ways are ruled out. What does the exiled tycoon mean? Is he bluffing or does he have some information?

At present two factors are obvious. First, the president is leading the country in the right direction. Second, one presidential term is not enough for establishment of an effective democratic system for ruling the state and the society. Does the president intend to stand up for the second presidential term in order to finish the democratic reforms? What can prevent him from doing this?

There is no danger from the center and the left wing as neither have enough political forces and other resources, first of all financial. However, there is an obvious danger from the right. Large capital, whose interests are represented by Anatoly Chubais and associates, will never tolerate legal equality in business and politics as its component.

An analyst who attentively watches the sequence of political events is not surprised with a number of measures that have been taken by large business representatives after Vladimir Putin took office in the Kremlin. In particular, the right forces united into a united political structure after the first signs of vulnerability of tycoons and top officials to the law. The more the legal field strengthened the more purely economic signs of resistance to the presidential policy appeared. According to a number of experts, big business has started to actively transfer its assets abroad. Simultaneously, the natural monopolies are to be actively reformed, which according to experts, can lead to growth of rates and lack of control.

On the one hand, the reform of Russian Joint Energy System (RJES) will give Anatoly Chubais great power, which will exceed the power of the president, on the other hand, if necessary he will have the opportunity to bring to nothing the whole social policy carried out by Putin in order to direct social tension into the channel necessary for big business. Thus, the president may be forced to solve a dilemma: either to resign or to surrender to the will of a certain group of people. In fact, these reforms have already been started. In these terms the fact that many regional media already belong to RJES, Chubais received them as payment for electricity debts. Further on, the regional debts for electricity may have the most unexpected results. According to many experts, the president needs to urgently take measures to eliminate the dependence of the regions on RJES; de facto, he may write off the debts to Chubais.

All these facts prove that the right wing is preparing for the presidential election campaign and the parliamentary elections. There are at least three politicians in Chubais's Union of Right Forces who may be promoted as candidates for president. If the right succeeds in the presidential race, which is a real possibility if the aforementioned measures are fully realized, Chubais will become the real master of the country. Sadly, the presidential team seems not to notice all this. Although, it is absolutely apparent that Vladimir Putin's presidential campaign will not be as easy and painless personally for him as it was in 2000. The support of the right that he used while standing in the election, will not be very helpful, as the presidential ideas 2001 differ much from the previous ones. Voluntarily or involuntarily, Putin will have to get involved into a normal election campaign routine: to plan propaganda campaigns, to look for support of financial groups, to sincerely talk to the people.... His chances of re-election are rather high. However, he will have to make a big effort to realize them.

(Translated by Arina Yevtikhova)

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