#4
From: "Peter Lavelle" <plavelle@metropol.ru>
Subject: Untimely Thoughts
Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2001
Peter Lavelle: Untimely Thoughts:
The Crawford Ideology - and all its extra baggage (re
Making the new partnership work)
The Crawford Ideology is taking on form. I won't repeat the litany of concerns and reservations I have about how the new relationship may or may not develop. But one area I am willing to give quarter is the change in perception. Watching Putin and Bush give addresses opening the summit in Washington was nothing short of incredible. Who would have ever thought the presidents of the US and the Russian Federation would stand together in front of the international media and go out of their way not to disagree with the other? In light of the last presidential campaign, who would have thought Bush would publicly bend over backwards to befriend man he once referred to as "an unknown quantity"?
The Crawford Ideology is about perception of the unknown and insecurity. The Crawford Ideology may even be a wake up call about how the world really is. The Crawford Ideology, though, has yet to demonstrate it knows how the world should be moving forward. I have no doubt there is goodwill involved as well. Putin firmly believes Russia's future lies with the west and its internationally controlled institutions. Russia certainly desires greater respect and a multi-polar world order. Bush's America desires an ally of stature. Western Europe in this respect just does not cut the mustered. Europe means many things or nothing to the majority of Americans. Having the former 'evil empire' on our side (or in a foxhole with George W) gives the reconciliation an almost magical-Hollywood touch. Russia, in the American psyche, has always scared some part of the world - all the better to have them supporting us this time around given the circumstances.
The Crawford Ideology is also very porous. There is much beyond the control of Putin and (especially) Bush. Putin has little, if any, meaningful opposition to contend with at home. This is a reflection of Putin's traditional side. Democratic centralism is alive and well in Russia today - Putin prefers it that way. At the same time he has an improvised country demanding to join its western peers in the shortest time period possible. His nemesis is world oil prices. Alas, a third world country with first world tastes and expectations. Others around him have demands that are as crude as the price of a barrel of oil.
Bush's position is much more problematic. While military operations continue, Bush can count on bipartisan support. Once the military campaign begins to winds down Putin's Russia will again begin to appear as it did before 9/11. The difference being Bush will have to explain his own past statements about Russia. Just because the administration decides to down play Russia's Chechnya campaign does not mean the media and Congress (not to mention his own party or the Democrats) will do the same. Just because the administration will promote investment in Russia does not mean American companies will line up to sign a deal. Will Congress and the American people support securing guarantees for private investment in Russia? The answer to this question should be obvious.
The first news conference of the Putin and Bush summit made a big impression on me. The next time Bush attempts to defend Putin's actions in regard to freedom of speech in Russia's electronic and print media he should think again. Bush will have enough on his plate explaining US policy; explaining and defending Russia domestic policy will only, in the end, crucify him. The Crawford Ideology brings out the best in both Russia and the US. However, the Crawford Ideology will also demonstrate what separates Russia and the US, what makes us truly different from each other. Perception often is circumstantial and ephemeral. Rewarding Russia for its present actions and words may be baggage Bush will find unbearable to carry in the not too distant future.
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