#3
Novaya Gazeta
No. 81
November 2001
GENERALS WITHOUT A COLONEL
Why would Vladimir Putin agree to negotiate in Chechnya?
Author: Dmitry Muratov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
PRESIDENT PUTIN UNDERSTANDS THAT THE GENERALS WON'T WIN THE WAR IN CHECHNYA. THEY PROTEST LOUDLY AGAINST ANY IDEA OF PEACE TALKS; THEY NEED THE WAR TO CONTINUE. THAT IS PROBABLY WHY PUTIN HAS NOT RULED OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NEGOTIATIONS.
Why would President Vladimir Putin agree to peace negotiations in Chechnya? At first sight, his hands are completely untied in the wake of the terrorist attacks in the United States. The parliament of Germany gives him a standing ovation. The notorious "toilets", in which Putin once promised to destroy the Chechen separatists, are waiting.
And Putin has not been using his chance.
Sergei Yastrzhembsky reveals the horrible statistics of the two years of war - 3,438 (or eight battalions) killed in action, and 11,661 (a division) wounded.
The generals are usually outraged to hear any talk of negotiations.
The list of generals' invocations is well-known. Invocation One: This is an attempt to deprive the army of its victory, via another Khasavyurt agreement (i.e. peace). Invocation Two: Who is there to negotiate with? There is no one out there.
These gallant men in Khankala deserve a response.
A FEW WORDS ABOUT INVOCATION ONE.
First, you gave up Grozny to the Chechens on August 6, 1996; and then Alexander Lebed stepped in to try to negotiate and establish peace.
A FEW WORDS ABOUT INVOCATION TWO.
If there is really no one there, then whom have you been fighting in Chechnya? You've lost eight battalions and have a whole division hospitalized, but the guerrillas are still out there.
That is probably why Putin has not ruled out the possibility of negotiations.
He understood two things.
1. The generals will not win the war. They are incompetent war managers. Some of them are driving their military enterprises to insolvency and getting into politics instead.
2. The amusing General Manilov was right to say: "Terrorist acts have become more feasible due to the successful counter-terrorism operation."
I will venture a guess. Putin no longer trusts effectiveness of the old generals and doesn't want to generate more terrorism in Russia.
But generals need the war. They need it badly, as investments in their personal finances. The generals and field commanders have established a joint stock company - War - in which no one holds a controlling interest. Before 5 p.m. Grozny is in the hands of the federal troops; after that the checkpoints close down and start defending themselves.
There is oil as well. According to the latest reports, 29 illegal mini-refineries have been blown up. Intelligence and Prime Minister Ilyasov know better, and report to Moscow that up to 200 KamAZ trucks laden with oil freely pass through Chechnya. The generals will never give up these revenues.
The generals will just go on playing their games, and ascribing every defeat to the negotiations.
Today we are shown Basayev's wounded leg (probably phase one of his complete destruction). Tomorrow, the chief of the General Staff himself is telling the nation about Gelayev's wounds and state of health.
The generals would like the public to believe that just a small effort is needed for the victory to become final and irreversible. The generals promise this triumph, this victory, while pumping oil all the time. They are stalling for time because this is time for them to make a profit.
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