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Signs grow of U.S.-Russia missile deal at summit
By Richard Balmforth
MOSCOW, Nov 5 (Reuters) - With a week to go before a U.S. summit between Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin and President George W. Bush, Russia signalled on Monday the two sides were advancing towards a compromise on U.S. missile defence plans.
Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov was quoted as saying that the two sides had narrowed differences in their dispute over the future of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty -- a landmark pact threatened by U.S. plans to build a missile shield.
He told Interfax that there was now "clear progress" on the ABM question and the two sides were coming closer together. He did not elaborate.
The Foreign Ministry, following expert consultations on arms with Washington, added that it saw the basis for working out a new strategic relationship with Washington.
Analysts said Moscow and Washington seemed determined to stitch together a deal in time for the November 13-15 summit, when Putin and Bush were expected to set the seal on warm relations forged by the common fight against terrorism.
"They are saving a compromise for the summit," said Boris Makarenko, deputy director of Moscow's Centre for Political Technologies.
Nuclear arms cuts and the ABM treaty dispute form the core of the summit agenda. The missile shield against "rogue" states planned by Bush would violate the landmark pact.
The United States, which admits missile testing will soon "bump up" against the treaty, dismisses the ABM pact as a relic of the Cold War which has outlived its usefulness. But Russia sees it as a cornerstone of strategic stability.
COLD WAR LEGACY
On Saturday, after talks with U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Ivanov said all Russian-U.S. arms agreements were to a certain extent vestiges of the Cold War. "But before dropping any one agreement...we believe it is better to do so when something new is already in place," he said.
Earlier on Monday the Foreign Ministry foreshadowed a new strategic relationship, saying mutual steps were now required including "careful treatment of existing, interconnected strategic arms agreements, offensive and defensive."
Russia wants any concessions on missile defence matched by deep cuts in offensive nuclear weapons, so that any future U.S. missile shield does not give Washington a strategic advantage.
Washington, which sets great store by the support from Putin's Russia for its anti-terrorism campaign and does not want to embarrass the Kremlin leader, has equally been at pains to accommodate him on the issue.
Late last month Rumsfeld -- who in the past has said the United States would forge ahead in missile defence-related testing without being constrained by the ABM treaty -- announced the Pentagon was postponing certain planned tests.
He denied the move was a reward to Putin for his firm support for U.S. military operations in Afghanistan aimed at destroying the bases of Saudi-born Osama bin Laden, whom Washington suspects of being behind the September airliner attacks in the United States in which thousands were killed.
FINDING A FORMULA
Independent analyst Alexander Golts said on Monday that he expected the two sides to find a formula that would allow Washington to press ahead with missile defence testing, while apparently preserving the ABM treaty.
At the same time, Putin would be able to return home from the summit and tell his political and military elite that he had defended the ABM treaty.
"This new agreement will allow the most liberal interpretation of the articles of ABM about testing. They will agree that the ABM treaty does not limit U.S. testing of any system," he forecast.
"Once he gets back home, Putin will be able to say 'We were very flexible. We saved the ABM treaty and look, we have nuclear parity with the United States. But it won't be the ABM treaty at all," Golts said.
Makarenko agreed, adding that the improved climate in Russia-U.S. relations in the wake of the September 11 attacks meant Putin might find it easier to sell such a compromise to his political and military elite.
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