#6
Vek
No. 42
October 26, 2001
PUTIN PULLS AWAY FROM THE ELITE
Likely consequences of Putin's latest initiatives in Cuba and Vietnam
Author: Andrei Ryabov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
THE BOLD AND UNEXPECTED INITIATIVES OF PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN - TO CLOSE RUSSIAN MILITARY BASES IN CUBA AND VIETNAM - HAVE GIVEN MANY PEOPLE THE IDEA THAT PUTIN IS SEPARATING HIMSELF FROM THE RUSSIAN POLITICAL ELITE. THIS IS VERY LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REAL INTERESTS OF CERTAIN GROUPS.
The bold and unexpected initiatives of President Vladimir Putin concerning closing Russian military bases in Cuba and Vietnam - the last symbols of former imperial grandness - made many think again, like in Gorbachev's time, if the president is separating himself from the elite, the public opinion, and what such a separation may end in for the country and its stability. The question is rather natural as far from everyone liked the initiatives. The fact that so far none of the leading politicians - other than the Communists and Vladimir Zhirinovsky - are criticizing the president is no reason to be optimistic: presently the president's popularity rating is so high that it is not very proper to criticize him.
However, Putin's new ideas are very likely to affect someone's real interests. For instance, this may concern the interests of those who are primarily oriented on development of economic and military- technical cooperation with China and the countries of the Islamic East that have always been considered partners and allies of Russia. These groups are reasonably concerned that the too intensive drifting to the West may put an end to real prospects in the East. Besides, a number of Russian companies, which are used to functioning in the half-closed Russian economy are also concerned: form their standpoint Russia's possible joining the World Trade Organization that is likely follow the political rapprochement with the West may threaten their current positions in the open competition with US, European, and Japanese concerns.
Of course, all these issues are solvable and they do not place the president in front of tough and choice without an alternative. The relations with the East may be developed simultaneously with closing with closing with the West. Even the issue of joining the WTO is in fact solvable - if both sides are willing, Russia may enter the organization on special conditions...
Nonetheless, politics is not always rational. Those who now consider their interests threatened are hardly likely to wait until things settle down by themselves. This means they will use any chance to not only correct the president but to also restrict his legal intention to follow an independent political course. This happened to Mikhail Gorbachev. What are the options for President Putin in such a situation? Firstly, the issue is that the president will have to demonstrate to the elite and the public over a very short period of time some concrete results from the close-with-the-West policy, such as: investment, debt rescheduling, a new international security system where Russia's voice would be significant, aid in detaining the mercenaries fighting in Chechnya, and so on. Gorbachev's trouble was that in the late 1980s he did not have enough time to demonstrate the real and material results of his "new mentality" policies in the world arena. Putin's time is also limited.
The second aspect is connected with the president's interior political choice. There may be two solutions for a situation when the head of state separates himself in foreign policy from the elite. He may compromise with those who do not like the new foreign affairs course: in exchange for freedom in making foreign policy decisions they will get significant limitations in domestic policy. At first glance, such a solution seems to be the best. However, in fact, this is the most risky solution: if these forces feel more confident they will start increasing the pressure on the president in foreign policy. The second option is diametrically opposed. It is important for the president to form a coalition of forces that will be ready to support his foreign policy decisions, independently of the domestic political situation. It seems that realization of this scenario may lead to destabilization of the situation as in this case the president will have to considerably transform the balance of forces in his team. Moreover, it is very hard to simultaneously fight on two fronts - foreign affairs and domestic policy. Nonetheless, the constant upsurges of the battle for influence between various interest groups in the Russian elite prove that the balances of forces are unstable and the forces participating in them are unwilling to keep their status quo. Isn't this a reason for tying the issues of working out new foreign policy to restructuring the support basis within Russia?
Essentially, at present there is no insurmountable barrier between foreign and domestic policy. There can only be real results from foreign policy - cooperation with the West - when the Russian economy transforms from its present condition, which is still post- Soviet, to a market economy and becomes not only a source of cheap raw materials but also a producer of sophisticated products and new technologies, as well as an attractive target for investment.
(Translated by Arina Yevtikhova )
