#9
From: "Stanislav Menshikov" <menschivok@globalxs.nl>
Subject: SHANGHAI IS NOT ABOUT ECONOMICS ONLY
Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2001
"MOSCOW TRIBUNE",
19 October 2001
SHANGHAI IS NOT ABOUT ECONOMICS ONLY
Putin and Bush To Discuss Strategic Issues, Too
By Stanislav Menshikov
As the abbreviation APEC suggests, the Shanghai summit coming over this weekend is mainly about promoting economic co-operation in the Asia-Pacific area. But in times likes these, and with leaders of world powers participating, the focus will be also on strategic issues. At least, that is what George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin are expected to talk about when they meet face to face on Sunday.
As the US president indicated the other day, he plans to use this occasion to convince the Russian leader to join America in foreclosing on the 1972 ABM Treaty. But while this is an important and controversial issue, it can wait until the two meet again in Texas. The events of and following 11 September have made NMD sound rather academic compared with the more pressing issues of what to do in and around Afghanistan and vis-a-vis international terrorism in general. The two former superpowers are newly born allies and their immediate agenda is getting to see eye to eye on most strategic issues involved. The future of ABM is not on that critical path.
One immediate issue is agreeing on the aims of war in Afghanistan and the post-war organisation of that country. The US is actively involved in talks about this with Pakistan, the former Afghan king and some other groups. But so far, there has been no serious effort to include in these consultations either Russia or China, two large neighbouring powers with direct national security concerns. The Afghan Diaspora abroad numbers today a few millions, some 150 thousand of them in Russia. Many come from the educated elite forced to leave their country. It is this educated part of the Afghan society, not the Pakistani military, that is best qualified to lead in building up a stable and modernised Afghanistan. Ignoring them is wrong, and the Big Two should discuss ways of integrating them into the process.
Shanghai is also the right time to clarify US intentions about other countries that are said to be "hosting terrorists". The American media has carried stories about expert groups in the Pentagon working out plans of military operations in Iraq. The US has officially put the UN on notice that it may strike at unspecified countries if it feels like it. Because of good relations that Russia maintains with some of these nations, it has a right to know what exactly is on Mr. Bush's mind.
Iraq is a case with a clear history. When it attacked neighbouring Kuwait there was no question as to Moscow's position. Saddam Khussein is not an easy customer but his involvement in supporting international terrorism today is far from obvious. Bush and Putin should have their intelligence services jointly review all the relevant evidence about Iraq before military action is considered. Colin Powell and Igor Ivanov should be asked to jointly weigh the possible backlash in the Arab world before agreeing on a political decision.
Economic implications of any such move should also be considered. Invading Iraq could disrupt oil markets, trigger skyrocketing fuel prices and thus aggravate the already delicate world economic situation. Do we want to add to forces deepening the current recession or do we want to avoid steps that might provoke a depression of the worst kind?
One of the stories leaked out of the Pentagon is that of a cute plan, under which the US would occupy the southern oil-rich part of Iraq, install there an opposition regime and use the proceeds from selling Iraqi oil for financing that government and its anti-Saddam operations. With all due respect, this plan strikes us as bordering on fantasy. Very likely, such an operation would end up in the oil wells of Basra being blown up before the US commandos reach them. This would destroy the plan itself and disrupt oil markets for long. As an oil exporter, Russia would benefit from higher prices. But the resulting additional political and military instability near Russian southern borders is hardly worth those economic gains.
It might also be useful to bring more frankness into how Bush and Putin see terrorism in Chechnya. The Russian president should share with his US colleague available intelligence on the continuing close ties between "Al-Qaida" and the separatist Chechen leadership, not only with the Arab terrorists there. The American president would benefit by knowing more about Saudi financing of the terrorist international, including its affiliates on Russian territory. Perhaps, he could also profit from information about the double game played by the authorities in Tbilisi vis-a-vis Chechen terrorists hiding on Georgia's territory.
War is war, and relations between countries allied in pursuit of a common military goal should be clear and above the surface. When high US officials talk about the need to "construct a new concept of relations between our countries", they surely mean concrete co-operation, not meaningless generalities. Vladimir Putin should take them at their word, and establish a working relationship with George W. Bush. Shanghai is a good time and place to start.
Next Article