RUSSIAN ANALYSTS AND POLITICIANS DISCUSS RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN RELATIONS WITH NATO, IN LIGHT OF THE WAR AGAINST TERRORISM AND PRESIDENT PUTIN'S VISIT TO BRUSSELS. THEY COMMENT ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF RUSSIA JOINING NATO SOME DAY, AND POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF SUCH A MOVE.

RUSSIA HAS BEEN ASKED TO DRAW UP A NEW PROGRAM OF COOPERATION WITH NATO, SAID PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN AFTER MEETING WITH NATO SECRETARY- GENERAL LORD GEORGE ROBERTSON.

Vyacheslav Nikonov, President of the Politika Foundation: There are situations that speed up historical processes. An alliance between Stalin and Churchill was unthinkable before June 22, 1941. Participation in the war by the United States was likewise unthinkable before Pearl Harbor.

Churchill told Parliament on June 22 that he was on the side of the Soviet Union. Shortly before that, however, he told his chief aide that if Hitler invaded Hell, he'd make an alliance with the devil.

The Americans lost as many people in New York as they did at Pearl Harbor. And after Pearl Harbor, the Americans calmed down only when Nagasaki had been nuked.

The terrorist attacks in New York have given Russia exactly this kind of historic opportunity. Putin was the first leader to call President George W. Bush. His reaction was plain and simple: Russia is with America and with the West.

The appearance of a new enemy - terrorism - is having a consolidating effect, particularly since this is the first aggressor on this scale since 1945.

Nikonov: It turns out that Russia alone is ten times as helpful to the United States than all of NATO - other than Britain and Turkey, which are providing airfields. And Russia provides air corridors. Without them, it would be considerably more difficult for Washington to reach agreements with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Moreover, Russia can help the Northern Alliance with old Soviet military hardware, which it has in abundance and has no other use for. The United States can help the Northern Alliance only with funding, because it cannot airlift heavy military hardware to Afghanistan.

It should also be noted that NATO states, apart from Britain and new member Poland, aren't exactly in a hurry to be active. They prefer a policy of non-involvement, because they have their own Muslim citizens to think about, and because they also fear terrorist attacks.

Putin certainly created a stir during his recent visit to Berlin. The Germans even called him "another Gorbachev" - and this is what's alarming.

Mikhail Gorbachev once announced a new political line of thought, assuming that the West would meet the Soviet Union at least halfway. It did not happen. Moscow alone showed this new way of thinking, while the West continued with its usual pragmatism in geopolitics. And idealism was doomed when it ran up against pragmatism. As a result, Moscow lost its its spheres of influence in Eastern Europe and the state known as the Soviet Union.

However, some analysts consider that Russia no longer has anything to fear, because it is no longer playing super-power games and because it has learned from Gorbachev's efforts.

Nikonov: In economic terms, becoming a member of NATO would make Russia a "member of the club", and money within the club operates on different terms. Investment in Poland is several times higher than investment in Russia. The question of Russia's image and its membership of the World Trade Organization would be decided. The question of Russia's foreign debts would be viewed differently; Russia's chances of joining the European Union would soar; and within the European Union a great deal of the budget is spent on evening out the economic development of its members. This means that European money would be used to bring Russia up to the average European level. Spain, Portugal, Greece, and southern Italy (the major recipients of these subsidies) are already worried that the money may go to Poland and the Czech Republic.

If Russia becomes a NATO member, this would have an impact on the development of humanity for centuries. What's needed is political will from Putin and the Russian political elite (but they are not eager to join NATO at this point). Political will from the West is also needed - but the West thinks that once Russia is a NATO member, all it will do is exercise veto power.

Increased potential investment wouldn't hurt us at all. The only question is to what extent we can rely on that, at least before the oil market crashed. By lifting sanctions against India, with which Russia has almost $10 billion worth of contracts signed, the Americans could well create problems for Russia in the markets it has always considered its own.

Duma Deputy Eduard Vorobiov, Union of Right Forces: Russia used to be the major supplier of arms to India, but I don't think the Americans are moving into our traditional markets deliberately. It's just happening, that's all; no need to look for any ulterior motives here. War on terrorism is consolidating people and nations, while the usual rivalry continues as it always has. No one has revoked the national interests of the United States, right?

Neither do I think the United States will want President Rabbani in Afghanistan, though he is being promoted by Putin. Washington would sooner see its own man on the throne there - former King Zahir Shah. However, that issue is being postponed until after Osama bin Laden is caught - provided, of course, the United States wants him.

Valentin Varennikov, former Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of the USSR, head of the Russian Defense Ministry mission in the Republic of Afghanistan: Sure, it's possible to strike at Afghanistan and destroy terrorist bases and camps - but catching bin Laden is an entirely different matter. Besides, I'm not yet convinced the Americans really want bin Laden dead. Bin Laden commands considerable respect in the Middle East. Using intermediaries, the CIA could well promote its own interests in the region through him. Caspian oil from Turkmenistan, for example, may be pumped via Afghanistan across the desert to the Indian Ocean; and bin Laden may be usefulf for protecting the pipeline.

A few words about Russia's interests.

Nikonov: We are getting into a situation where all kinds of trouble is potentially present. Destabilization in Central Asia is the major threat. This could mean a civil war in Uzbekistan, terrorist acts in Russia, religious sedition, and probably even a drawn-out conflict on the borders. Along with that, we are taking on certain obligations and responsibilities to the United States. But the Americans aren't making any commitments to Russia. Russia is facing problems on its borders, with the prospect of a lengthy conflict right across the border; Russia needs guarantees of security, and who can offer better guarantees than NATO?

What happens if we join NATO? Firstly, we would stop all this pointless running around, and finally answer the eternal question of who we are: the West or the East.

Secondly, including Russia would change the very nature of NATO. NATO was first set up to address three problems: America in, Germany down, Russia out. With the "Russia out" postulate gone, the nature of the Alliance will be dramatically changed. Besides, this is a club where all decisions are made by consensus. NATO members do not usually object to the position of the United States on any issue, but Russia's presence could change that. It would mean some sort of control over the Alliance. Russia may invoke its veto power, for example.

Thirdly, Russia as a NATO member would be able to set aside all its concerns about its own territorial integrity, which would be guaranteed by Article Five of the NATO founding charter.

Fourthly, as soon as Russia becomes a NATO member, no one will interfere any longer in its relations with CIS member nations. Our objections to NATO membership for Lithuania would also cease.

There are some arguments against it as well. Firstly, Russia would lose some independence in its foreign policy.

Secondly, NATO membership would create serious problems in Russian-Chinese relations. China is not going to take Russia's membership in the Alliance lightly, just as Russia is uneasy about NATO drawing closer to Russia's borders.

Thirdly, Russia would be forced to participate all Western games. What I mean is that if the conflict presently unfolding escalates into a clash of civilizations, Russia will be right in the forefront of the war, defending NATO and its interests...

In any case, the question of joining NATO is not on the agenda for the time being. Sergei Yushenkov of the Union of Right Forces considers that the devious, somewhat thieving nature of the Russian elite is one of the reasons NATO doesn't want Russia as a member.

Yushenkov: Neither the civilian nor military bureaucracy in Russia will tolerate the level of transparency required of NATO members. The excessive level of corruption would surface immediately. No one will let Putin do it. He is not an independent politician, and all his statements about joining NATO are a bluff.

The next summit, scheduled to take place in Prague in late 2002, will be the major indicator of how serious NATO's intentions are with regard to Russia. If Lithuania or other candidates, like Slovenia and Slovakia, are admitted into the Alliance, it will mean that the NATO considers its eastward expansion more important than cooperation with Russia.

Duma Deputy Speaker Vladimir Zhirinovsky, LDPR faction, is cynical as usual.

Zhirinovsky: NATO needs Russia as an outpost. We will sweat and bleed on the borders of the Muslim world, while NATO spends its time leisurily counting the money it will pay us. Soldiers and military hardware will be Russian. NATO may accept that now, because it is afraid. As far as NATO is concerned, the situation is out of control.

And what does Russia need the war for? To have its debts written off.

Political scientist Sergei Kurginjan is not impressed by the results of Putin's visit to Belgium and his talks with Lord Robertson.

Kurginjan: Putin's meeting with Lord Robertson makes it clear that dumping practices on the political market continue. Russia is not allowed to resolve its problems with Chechnya once and for all. The West wants Russia's involvement in the military operation in Afghanistan, on the so-called front of the war against global terrorism. At the same time, the West does not let Russia control post-Soviet territory, since the Americans are deploying their troops in Uzbekistan. So far, NATO hasn't even shared all its information about Osama bin Laden with Russia. Perhaps we don't even need it, but this is an indication of current trends.

The US Ambassador to Russia considers that "given time, Russia will join NATO and we will all be allies again"... Back to the Top    Next Article