MOSCOW (Reuters) - As U.S. forces bomb Afghanistan, experts warn a prolonged campaign could open a Pandora's box of ethnic and religious troubles in volatile Central Asia.

The disruption of the status quo in the region's former Soviet republics could spill over into Russia's own open wound -- Chechnya, where Russian troops have been fighting Muslim separatists on and off since 1993.

But Russia could also reap dividends by winning more Western sympathy for its attempts to portray the Chechen conflict as part of the struggle against terrorism.

Ruslan Aushev, president of the Ingushetia region which borders Chechnya, told a news conference this week that the U.S. retaliation for the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington endangered Russia's tinderbox Caucasus provinces.

"I predict that if the Americans destabilize the region, problems will spill over into Russia," said Aushev, a veteran of the Soviet Union's 1979-1989 occupation of Afghanistan.

Ingushetia has already taken in tens of thousands of refugees from Chechnya.

Aushev said flows of cash to Chechen rebels, which the Kremlin has repeatedly linked to millionaire dissident Osama bin Laden who is blamed for the U.S. attacks, were also likely to increase.

The Kremlin has already appealed for Western help to freeze foreign accounts it says fund Chechnya's separatists.

Boris Makarenko, deputy director of the Center for Political Technologies think tank, said authorities in regions of Russia with big Muslim populations had the experience and will to contain even heightened militancy.

"The local elites have proved that they can stay in control over their own regions, even in the most difficult conditions, such as the 'hot phases' of military operation in Chechnya," Makarenko said.

"There may be more unrest, more sore feelings among the local Muslim population, but I believe that local elites, with the help of the government, will retain control."

MILITANT ISLAM IN CENTRAL ASIA

More severe problems could be in store for Central Asian states bordering Afghanistan, especially those with strong militant Islamic groups.

"Uzbekistan is the number one candidate," Makarenko said. "It has its own Islamic movement, known to have links with the Taliban, possibly to Osama bin Laden."

Russia is already policing Tajikistan's 815-mile border with Afghanistan with more than 10,000 guards, trying to choke the flow of drugs on the way to Europe through the impoverished Central Asian state.

Others believe that siding with NATO and the United States will make Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States of ex-Soviet republics possible terrorist targets -- like Boris Mylnikov, head of a body set up to fight terrorism within the CIS.

Blasts that killed some 300 people in Moscow and other cities in 1999 were blamed on Chechens and prompted the second post-Soviet military campaign in the region.

"The Taliban have declared enemies all those who cooperate with the U.S. and NATO in the war against Afghanistan," Mylnikov told the newspaper Rossiiskie Vesti. "And in the circle of enemies are the CIS states. The operation will enlarge the borders of the conflict."

OTHER EX-SOVIET FLASHPOINTS

Indirectly, the conflict could also spread to flashpoints where separatists are likely to take advantage of the fact that both Russia and the West are busy elsewhere.

Tensions flared in Georgia's breakaway region of Abkhazia last week when the self-declared state's forces clashed with up to 300 guerrillas operating on the border with Georgia.

Despite the risks, Russia and many Central Asian states, could achieve a rapprochement of sorts with the West.

"Now the West will understand Russia more," Grigory Bondarevsky, consultant to the Institute of Eastern Studies said. "And this is unquestionably a good thing."

Makarenko agreed: "The main consequence is not about Abkhazia or Chechnya, but about the overall framework of Russia's relations with the West. (The campaign) creates a window of opportunity for Russia." Back to the Top    Next Article