Peter Lavelle:
Untimely Thoughts - Saying good-bye is never easy
(re Russia's foreign policy choices)

Changing foreign policy orientations is difficult. It, first and foremost, entails changing who is considered a friend. Who will be Russia's new friends in the US-led war against terrorism? I will not dwell on how the world has changed since September 11, or how Russia may be on the verge of changing the course of its foreign policy of a world historic magnitude. With all the speculation of what the world can expect moving forward, it seems to me the most important change is the fact that the US has a (limited) military presence in southern republics of what was the Soviet Union. While Putin's Russia could do little to stop this, one has to be amazed how gracefully Putin has accepted what would have been seemingly an impossibility a few weeks ago. No more talk of Russia being the successor state of the Soviet Union. In the end, an American presence may turn out to be a win-win situation for Russia. Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and even Georgia can become buffer states separating what could go very wrong if recreating a post-Taliban Afghanistan suiting western tastes goes amiss. If things go well, Russia can claim its importance and influence in the new world order it helped create with its new western friends. Irrespective, Russia's influence will most likely not diminish much in the region. Things get a lot harder if the US decides to act out its words about international terrorism. The Taliban is not a group in isolation. Taliban does not mean international terrorism. To a greater or lesser degree, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Iran (as well as other countries further a field) have been involved in supporting groups with clearly anti-western (and anti-Israeli) policy orientations. So, how far does the new international coalition against terrorism go? Virtually no one has ever liked the Taliban. Are strikes against these other Arab countries acceptable to Putin's Russia? Or, more to the point, how far is his military willing to following his new vision of Russia's place in the world? Putin and Bush have some hard choices ahead. Bush has stated no less that he will pursue a war of annihilation against terrorists and their confederates. Putin, on the other hand, is interested in having friendly regimes on and near Russia's borders - while also being on the best possible terms with the west. These interests overlap, though they are obviously not the same - Primakov's insights in this respect are instructive. There is a world beyond the Taliban. The US has not made too many enemies since September 11. It is unclear if Russia has made any real friends since then, though clearly it is on the path of losing friends. Russia could tear a page from 19th century British foreign policy - have interests over friends.

Back to the Top    Next Section