#5
Financial Times (UK)
19 September 2001
Russian army wary of becoming involved in any action
By Robert Cottrell in Moscow
President Vladimir Putin has yet to define clearly Russia's part in any
US-led 'war on terrorism', diplomats and analysts say. Until he does so,
the policy signals from Moscow will remain uncertain.
On Monday Mr Putin retreated to a holiday residence on the Black Sea, where
he stayed on Tuesday, apparently to ponder what is widely seen as the most
difficult foreign policy choice of his presidency.
The Russian army is making clear its reluctance to be drawn into a US-led
military action against Afghanistan, whether by lending forces or merely
military bases.
Russian politicians are divided on the issue of opening what they now call
a "second front" against terrorism. The "first front" for
Russia is
Chechnya, where there has been an upsurge of violence in recent days.
Diplomats said on Tuesday it was impossible to predict Russian tactics in
the United Nations Security Council. It might agree the US already had
general authority for anti-terrorist actions. Or it might join China in
insisting on more debate and resolutions.
"I can see delay and fence sitting as part of [the Russian]
strategy," one
western diplomat said. "But my instinct is that they will go the Americans'
way."
Igor Ivanov, Russia's foreign minister, was due to meet Colin Powell, US
secretary of state, in Washington on Wednesday.
There is a political consensus in Russia behind "total moral support of
the
United States", said Alexei Arbatov, a member of the Russian parliament.
But there is opposition to "massive strikes" by the US, he says, and a
"lack of unity at the top" about whether Russia should join even
closely
targeted strikes.
A key role is probably being played now by Sergei Ivanov, Russia's defence
minister and Mr Putin's most trusted colleague. "He knows the president
better than anyone, but he also has the general staff at his back," says
one diplomat.
Last week Mr Ivanov dismissed suggestions that the US might use military
bases in the Russian-dominated Commonwealth of Independent States to strike
at Afghanistan. His scepticism was echoed by army generals.
Further signs of discontent came on Tuesdday from the army newspaper,
Krasnaya Zvezda, which said it was "important for the US to understand that
simply increasing military might and attempting to bully the rest of the
world into submission . . . (was) no solution."
Russia does have an interest in seeing the Taliban weakened, says Andrei
Fedorov, a Russian political scientist. It might assist in a limited strike
on a few bases in Afghanistan but it believes a big ground campaign would
be doomed to failure, leaving the Taliban stronger than before.
Russia would also oppose any US military actions against traditional
Russian allies in the Muslim world, such as Iraq, says Mr Fedorov, but it
might agree to curtail sharply sales of military and nuclear technology.
"Only Mr Putin can take that step," he says. "He is not always
the most
decisive man, but Russians will accept any step on which he decides."
