#7
The Guardian (UK)
18 September 2001
Regional aid: who can US call on?
Strategic states must choose allegiance
Ian Traynor in Moscow
The impoverished post-Soviet states of central Asia are confronting their
biggest foreign policy quandary since independence was secured a decade ago:
whether and how to assist a US onslaught on neighbouring Afghanistan.
Uzbekistan became the first frontline state to issue a form of welcome to the
Americans yesterday, announcing that it was "ready to discuss any form of
cooperation in the struggle against international terrorism, including
deployment of US forces".
Tajikistan also said it was ready to discuss cooperation, but that no request
had been made from the Americans.
A major factor is the position of Moscow, which ran the republics of
Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan as colonies and still views them
proprietorially. And each state faces potential Islamist insurgencies of its
own.
The Americans and the Russians discussed the issue face-to-face for the first
time yesterday when a senior US state department official, John Bolton, met
the Russian foreign minister, Igor Ivanov, in Moscow. Further top-level talks
are planned for today and tomorrow.
The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, telephoned the presidents of
Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan
yesterday to discuss "changes in the international political situation". And
the head of Mr Putin's security council, Vladimir Rushailo, has been
dispatched to all countries in the region for talks on terrorism with
officials, a Kremlin statement said.
Of the frontline states bordering Afghanistan, the Uzbeks are the keenest to
help the Americans, the Tajiks are taking their lead from their masters in
Moscow, and the Turkmens are professing neutrality.
President Islam Karimov, the authoritarian Uzbek leader, was nearly killed
two years ago by a bomb attack in the Uzbek capital, Tashkent, that was
blamed on Taliban-backed Islamic militants. His regime is keen to get even.
Uzbekistan has 100 miles of frontier with Afghanistan, and Tajikistan has 650
miles and well-equipped bases for forays to the south. But the bases are
controlled by the Russians, who have said it is in conceivable that US forces
could use facilities in ex-Soviet central Asia.
Tajikistan has already fallen into line with Russia, although its foreign
ministry said yesterday that it was ready for "cooperation with the US in the
fight against terrorism".
Turkmenistan, which also has a long border with Afghanistan, is the only one
of the three central Asian states enjoying relatively stable relations with
the Taliban regime and is the least likely contributor to a US alliance.
Russia's approval appears necessary for any US activity out of any central
Asian states. But so far, while offering intelligence, political and
diplomatic assistance to the Americans, the Kremlin has also set limits to
its support, ruling out a military role.
Despite two decades of hostility towards the US, Iran has sent unprecedented
signals of support. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, condemned
the attacks yesterday but said punishing Afghanistan might cause a human
catastrophe and could trigger more problems for America. It has also
announced the closure of its border with Afghanistan, apparently to prevent a
flood of refugees, though this would also help the US by closing escape
routes for Bin Laden's supporters.
Pakistan, meanwhile, has promised to help the US but has so far concentrated
on trying to persuade the Taliban to hand over Bin Laden.
China has described the attacks on American cities as "barbaric" and has said
it will join the fight against terrorism. But it is unlikely to allow US
forces on to its territory.
