#13
ANALYSIS-Russia faces dilemma as U.S. girds forces
By Richard Balmforth
MOSCOW, Sept 17 (Reuters) - A U.S. call on its friends to stand up and be
counted as it girds itself for military action over last week's terror
attacks has confronted Russia with an awkward policy choice.
How can it deliver on pledges to join a global fight against terrorism -- but
stay out of U.S. military operations in Afghanistan that will harm its
influence in the region?
Can Russia afford to be neutral in any U.S.-led action near its region of
strategic interest while preserving its big-power image in former Soviet
territory?
And -- crucially for President Vladimir Putin -- can he steer a middle course
without endangering an embryonic relationship with the administration of
George W. Bush?
"Russia at the moment is trying to preserve neutrality. But the war will be
carried out according to the principle 'He who is not with us, is against
us,"' the newspaper Vedomosti wrote on Monday, zeroing in on Putin's
quandary.
Drawing up a plus and minus sheet, Vedomosti said a consequence of staying
out of a western coalition of action would be foreign policy isolation for
Russia in the West.
CONFLICTING SIGNALS FROM PUTIN
Putin was one of the first world leaders to offer condolences to the United
States following the September 11 attacks. The tragedy, he said, underscored
Russian proposals for a global war to defeat "the plague" of terrorism.
The head of Russia's SVR foreign intelligence service, taking the cue, said
his service was working closely with agencies in the United States, Europe
and the Middle East to prevent new terror acts.
The U.S. focus on Taliban-ruled Afghanistan as one of the main springs of
international terrorism identified a common enemy.
Moscow has long held the same view, seeing the hand of the hardline Muslim
Taliban and that of Saudi-born militant Osama bin Laden -- prime suspect in
the U.S. terror attacks -- in the separatist rebellion in Chechnya.
But as attention swivelled to the ex-Soviet republics of Central Asia as
possible launch-pads for U.S. and NATO operations in Afghanistan the Russian
position hardened.
At stake for Putin here is Moscow's influence in the cluster of former
Central Asian states, which belong to the Russian-led Commonwealth of
Independent States and which form a vast strategic buffer region along
Russia's south-eastern borders.
It was left to Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov to quash speculation that
Moscow would allow Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, both of which border
Afghanistan, to be used as springboards for NATO military operations against
the Taliban.
"I don't see any basis for even hypothetical assumptions of the possibility
of launching any NATO military operations in the territory of Central Asian
countries which are members of the CIS," Ivanov told reporters in Armenia
last Friday.
At first glance, it seems improbable that Tajikistan, whose border security
is guaranteed by Russian forces under a government agreement, would strike a
deal with Washington and open its territory for logistical support to U.S.
forces.
The Washington Post reported on Monday that Uzbekistan however was prepared
to discuss use of its bases and air space with the United States, but a
government spokesman later back-pedalled saying it was too early to say.
Putin, facing what might turn into his biggest foreign policy challenge yet,
has put out conflicting signals over what Moscow's reaction would be to
large-scale U.S. military operations against targets in Afghanistan.
Saying the "evil" of terror actions had to be punished, the Kremlin leader
cautiously added on Saturday: "We should not liken ourselves to bandits who
strike from behind. We must weigh up our decisions and make them on the basis
of proven facts."
FEAR OF U.S. INFLUENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA
Russia's political establishment meanwhile began to show signs of increasing
nervousness on Monday at the implications of U.S. military action in
Afghanistan.
U.S. action could so destabilise the situation in Central Asia that Russia
"might be deprived of its zones of influence in the region" Sergei
Zagidullin, deputy chairman of the parliamentary committee for international
affairs, told RIA Novist news agency.
The decision of Uzbekistan to give up its air space to the United States
"placed Russia in a difficult situation," he said.
Cooperation with a U.S. operation launched from Russia's backyard could also
give Putin huge problems with his own armed forces, analysts say.
"Having got access into the Russian sphere of influence in Central Asia, the
Americans could hang on there," Vedomosti said, voicing a fear certain to be
shared by Russia's generals.
At the same time, Putin, who has sought to avoid confrontation with the
United States on several issues, may find it impossible to steer a middle
course indefinitely.
"Either way, with or without Russian backing for U.S. operations, there will
be instability in the region," independent analyst Alexander Golts said on
Monday.
"The difficulty for Russia will be in its relations with the United States
which is saying 'Either you are our allies or you are with our enemies'.
There is no third way," said Golts.
