April 5, 2000    
This Date's Issues: 4226 • 4227 •  4228

Johnson's Russia List
#4228
5 April 2000
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. AP: American in Moscow Arrested.
2. AP: Russia To Seek Nuclear Weapons Cuts.
3. Komsomolskaya Pravda: Those Who Have Come Back From the War 
Consider Everyone to be Their Debtors. (Chechen syndrome)
4. Moscow Times: Pavel Felgenhauer, Top Brass Fails to Learn From 
Chechen Disasters.
5. Moscow Times: Yabloko Leader to Join New Democratic Group.
6. The Guardian (UK): Ian Traynor, In the dark without a torch. 
Human rights investigator in Chechnya has no budget and the army will not answer him.
7. AFP: Russia favors independent probe into abuses in Chechnya.
8. Stratfor.com: Environmental Extortion: Russia’s New Revenue Stream.
9. The Independent (UK): Helen Womack, HOW ANARCHIC URANUS SAVED 
ME FROM A CAREER AS AN ASTROLOGER.
10. AFX EUROPE: RUSSIAN ECONOMY WILL TAKE YEARS TO CLEAN UP 
DESPITE PUTIN WIN - SG SECURITIES.
11. BBC MONITORING: NTV, KREMLIN FEARS OF "DEFEAT FOR PUTIN" PULL 
DEPUTY PM FROM GOVERNOR RACE. (St. Petersburg) 
12. BBC MONITORING: Izvestia, NEWSPAPER BEWILDERED BY SPONSORS OF 
RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES.
13. Rossiiskaya Gazeta: I BELIEVE THE STATE MUST...
Excerpts from the book "In the First Person. Conversations with 
Vladimir Putin."] 

*******

#1
American in Moscow Arrested
April 5, 2000

MOSCOW (AP) - Russia's security services today detained an American citizen 
in Moscow on spying charges, officials said. 

The American works as director of a private firm in Moscow, but was earlier 
employed by a U.S. intelligence agency, said a spokesman with the Federal 
Security Service, known by its Russian acronym FSB. 

The spokesman, who refused to be identified, would not give the name of the 
detained American. 

An FSB statement released later said a search of the American's belongings 
had revealed that ``the foreigner intentionally developed contacts with 
Russian scientists in Moscow, Novosibirsk and other cities of our country 
with the goal of gathering state secrets of Russia.'' 

It said that among the confiscated items were ``technical drawings of various 
equipment, recordings of his conversations with Russian citizens relating to 
their work in the Russian defense industry, and receipts for American dollars 
received by them.'' 

The FSB also detained a Russian citizen who worked at an unspecified defense 
enterprise in Moscow, the statement said. It said the Russian was found to 
have a large amount of foreign currency. 

An official at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow refused to confirm or deny the 
FSB's statement, saying it was the embassy's policy not to comment on such 
claims. 

********

#2
Russia To Seek Nuclear Weapons Cuts
April 4, 2000
By BARRY SCHWEID

WASHINGTON (AP) - Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov will discuss reopening 
negotiations to reduce U.S. and Russian long-range nuclear weapons on a visit 
here April 26-27. 

But the Clinton administration is holding back until the Russian parliament 
approves a 1993 treaty to cut the two countries' stockpiles. 

For years, the Dumas has shelved the START II arms control accord, stalling 
cutbacks in U.S. and Russian long-range weapons under that treaty. 

Last week, Stephen Sestanovich, the State Department official in charge of 
the bureau that deals with Russia, said the parliament appeared close to 
approving the long-delayed pact. 

He also said President Vladimir Putin's government was coming around to the 
U.S. view that a space-based weapons program should be considered by both 
countries. 

Ivanov, in his talks here, will make the point the 1972 U.S.-Soviet treaty 
that banned missile defenses was untouchable, the Russian Embassy said in an 
announcement of his planned visit. 

Clinton administration officials hope to persuade Russia to agree to amend 
the treaty. 

Putin last Friday reiterated his desire to see the START II ratified. 
However, the pact is still before a committee and hearings have not been 
scheduled. 

Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and NATO Secretary-General Lord 
Robertson agreed Monday the alliance should have good relations with Russia. 

Robertson told reporters ``NATO-Russia relations are of enormous 
importance.'' 

The former British defense minister called Russia a ``strategic partner'' 
with whom the alliance could discuss ``common security threats.'' 

Ivanov will stop first in New York for a review April 24-25 of the treaty to 
curb the spread of nuclear weapons technology. In his talks in Washington 
``close attention will be devoted to expansion of Russian-American ties,'' 
the Embassy statement said. 

Ivanov also is expected to attend NATO's annual Spring meeting in Florence in 
May. 

******

#3
Russia Today press summaries
Komsomolskaya Pravda
April 4, 2000 
Those Who Have Come Back From the War Consider Everyone to be Their Debtors.
Summary

Chechen syndrome is a new diagnosis in military psychiatry. Actually, this is 
a new name for an old syndrome - it was called Afghanistan before and Vietnam 
even earlier.

All the soldiers who have been through the Chechen war (or any other "hot 
spots") have this disease. It is characterized by the fact that a person's 
mind is still existing in a war situation. The person can't sleep - in the 
dreams the war comes. The person cries and moans in his sleep. And when he is 
awake, he always thinks that somewhere near grenades are about to explode. 
All the people with dark hair seem to be Chechen terrorists. Any sudden noise 
makes the sick person fall to the ground, trying to hide from an "explosion".

All the soldiers who have been through Chechen war talk about the war all the 
time. They tell everyone about it - the relatives, the neighbors, the 
strangers on a bus… They want to share their pain with people, put part of 
their difficult memories on other people's shoulders. But nobody wants to 
listen.

This is where a serious conflict between yesterday's soldier and simple 
people comes in. A person who has come back from war thinks that the 
civilians are indebted to him. While he, a hero, was in the trenches, 
fighting the enemy, they stayed at home, slept in comfortable beds. The 
person wants these "home front inhabitants" to praise him. But the people 
are not going to do that. And the conflict grows. The soldier will say 
everything he thinks about these "deserters" a couple of times, and people 
will stop associating with him. Most likely he will start drinking and 
experience other personal difficulties.

About 90% of those who have come back from war start drinking heavily. And 
vodka only makes all the symptoms more acute.

The only way these people can be helped is serious medical treatment. The 
Russian Ombudsman, Oleg Mironov, is ready to initiate elaboration of a 
psychological rehabilitation program for military men serving in Chechnya.

*******

#4
Moscow Times
5 April 2000
Top Brass Fails to Learn From Chechen Disasters 
By Pavel Felgenhauer (pavelf@online.ru)

Last week, a column of Russian special paramilitary OMON troops was massacred 
by rebels in southern Chechnya. Russian officials, including Defense Minister 
Igor Sergeyev, have blamed lack of coordination between local military 
commanders as the main source of the disaster. A thorough investigation has 
been promised by the Russian authorities and the guilty, they say, will be 
punished.

Of course, this is not the first time a Russian unit has been "wiped out" in 
Chechnya. A month ago, another OMON column was massacred on the outskirts of 
the Chechen capital, Grozny. Other elite paratroop and army special force 
units have also been attacked and destroyed recently.

Each time, the overall pattern of Russian military disasters is essentially 
the same: The rebels isolate or ambush a Russian unit of less than 100 men; 
the battle continues for hours, but Russian reinforcements are unable to 
break through to the surrounded men and reach the battlefield until sometimes 
days after the beginning of the engagement; the rebels continue their attacks 
with vigor until they achieve full victory and then successfully withdraw. 
Also, in each of the mishaps — with OMON troops and with the paratroopers 
from the 76th airborne division — fog covered the battlefield, so Russia 
troops did not get any close air support, since Russia still does not have 
night- or fog-capable close air support attack planes or helicopters.

It seems the Chechen rebels have found a serious flaw in the impressive armor 
of Russia's military, a flaw that cannot be fixed anytime soon. The Russian 
force in Chechnya is large in size (over 90,000 men), but it does not have 
any good infantry. The OMON paramilitaries are actually considered to be 
among the best, since these special units include only professional solders, 
not conscripts as in other Interior and Defense Ministry forces. But even the 
best of the Russian military get smashed in close engagements with Chechen 
rebels.

The Russian generals have not learned from previous military disasters in 
Chechnya because to "learn" would in fact mean that Russian generals 
recognize that they have led into battle a force that cannot prevail in an 
anti-guerrilla campaign.

To "learn" something in Chechnya and to avoid further disasters would also 
mean that Russian authorities would have to move fast to acquire new 
qualities their army does not have: Make and procure dozens of effective 
night-attack planes; buy high-tech infantry weaponry, communications and 
positioning equipment; create a corps of experienced professional sergeants
— 
maybe 100,000 strong — to lead and train the soldiers; build well-equipped 
infantry training bases to prepare the soldiers and officers for battle; and 
last, but not least, train a new set of genuinely professional generals and 
colonels capable of leading the troops into battle, not into massacres.

Such military reforms require time, money, political will and good 
governance, which Russia lacks. Instead, Russian officials now say that 
military convoys in Chechnya should from now on move only with heavy armor. 
But using tanks en masse in mountain gorges (or in the streets of Grozny, 
where the first OMON column was ambushed) is not a very good military idea. 
In such terrain, tanks are often just sitting ducks — easy prey for 
experienced rebels armed with anti-tank grenade launchers.

The idea of punishing local commanders for military mishaps is also not very 
productive. 

The Russian task force in Chechnya is temporary in nature. If a commanding 
officer is reprimanded and relieved of duty for some mishap, he is routinely 
sent to his home military base to continue service in his prewar position. 
Many Russian officers believe that such a "punishment" is a reward in 
disguise. In Chechnya, a reprimanded officer is replaced by a newcomer, often 
untested, and the Russian military effort in Chechnya continues in more or 
less the same fashion as before.

Mishaps that plague the conscript army in Chechnya have made talk of 
professionalizing the Russian armed forces more fashionable. Some Russian 
officials even say that the backbone of a future professional army is being 
formed now in Chechnya.

In fact, many Russian soldiers fighting today in Chechnya are armed thugs, 
especially the dreaded OMON units that man numerous check points and harass 
civilians during zachistki, or "mopping up" operations in Chechen villages. 
The OMON unit that was ambushed last week was en route to perform such a 
zachistka. When the OMON encountered armed rebels instead of meek civilians, 
they got "mopped up" themselves. If such units are a snapshot of a future 
professional Russian army, maybe conscripts are indeed better.

Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent, Moscow-based defense analyst.

******

#5
Moscow Times
5 April 2000
Yabloko Leader to Join New Democratic Group 

Yabloko leader Grigory Yavlinsky said his party is ready to join a broad 
democratic coalition proposed Tuesday by several pioneers of the country's 
democratic movement.

On Tuesday, Yury Ryzhov, Sergei Filatov, Yegor Yakovlev, Yevgeny Savostyanov 
and Yuri Afanasyev — all of whom were prominent in the democratic awakening 
of the late 1980s and early 1990s — appealed for a coalition based on key 
values including civil liberties, rule of law, openness for international 
cooperation, liberal economics, anti-Communism and independence of the media.

"Democratic forces received a huge credit of trust in 1989-1991 but could not 
justify it and lost," the appeal said.

The idea of a broad coalition of liberals is discussed often, but has never 
been realized. Prior to the March 26 elections, Yavlinsky said he would 
welcome the idea, but skeptics questioned whether he would stick to that 
after the vote.

Savostyanov also was running for president, but withdrew his candidacy at the 
last minute in favor of Yavlinsky. He urged other liberal candidates to do 
the same and to pursue a coalition after the election.

Yavlinsky told journalists his party is ready to join and "carry out 
coordinated decisions." Yavlinsky stressed that Yabloko "does not claim sole 
leadership" in the coalition, which would agree on candidates in local 
elections and coordinate legislative initiatives.

Yavlinsky also said that he had discussed the subject with members of the 
Union of Right Forces, or SPS.

"I think that representatives of SPS will join the coalition," Yavlinsky 
said. "Although I don't know who and in what formal capacity."

SPS supported President-elect Vladimir Putin in the elections, but some 
members expressed unease at this recent decision.

******

#6
The Guardian (UK)
5 April 2000
[for personal use only]
Chechnya
In the dark without a torch 
Human rights investigator in Chechnya has no budget and the army will not 
answer him
By Ian Traynor in Moscow

Vladimir Kalamanov has suddenly found himself occupying one of the least 
comfortable seats in the Kremlin. 

The lawyer, civil servant and former immigration official is Vladimir Putin's 
response to western criticism of atrocities perpetrated by Russian troops in 
Chechnya. 

In a culture with scant experience of investigating or punishing human rights 
violations Mr Kalamanov, Russia's presidential representative for human 
rights in Chechnya, faces a daunting task. 

"If I don't get the answers I'm looking for, I'll go to the supreme court and 
to the president," he asserts, determined to impress with his earnestness, 
honesty, and decency. 

Mr Kalamanov - who will not say whether he believes the Russians have 
committed atrocities - insists he has a mandate to bulldoze through 
bureaucracy and demand answers. But the Russian military begs to differ. 
Asked for details of alleged war crimes, the military prosecutor's office 
sent Mr Kalamanov a perfunctory letter revealing nothing. 

He tried again. He was told that 129 investigations had been launched. Most 
were about bullying and other offences within the army. Only seven concerned 
alleged offences against civilians in Chechnya. 

"There are practically no cases for crimes against civilians. It's 
unsatisfactory. I just can't get the answers I'm looking for," Mr Kalamanov 
says. 

He has asked the army for answers on three specific alleged massacres. No 
response. 

Nor can he get the resources he needs. He was appointed on February 17, yet 
he still has no budget. The staff he has recruited have not been paid. Mr 
Kalamanov may have a large office in Moscow, but he has been unable to make 
contact with his people in Chechnya. 

His section has one phone line and one fax in Chechnya. There's no phone link 
to Moscow, and no email. As we talk, word comes through that his bosses have 
just decided to allocate him a satellite phone. 

"He faces so much obstruction and opposition. His operation is an empty 
shell," says a senior western diplomat. "He's decent enough and he's 
struggling against the system, but he's not in a position to do much." 

Diederik Lohman of Human Rights Watch in Moscow says Mr Kalamanov sought to 
make a good impression with his organisation. "But he has a reflexive 
distrust of anything the displaced Chechens say. If that's your attitude 
before you start your investigation, you know there will be no results." 

Mr Kalamanov brandishes lists of Chechen detainees obtained from the Russian 
military, and confidential letters from western missions or the UN. He has 
one detailed list of 646 Chechen detainees, an other of 49. Of those, he 
says, 500 have been released. 

Such assertions are contested by Amnesty International and Human Rights 
Watch, who say that thousands of Chechens have been detained by Russian 
troops. 

He needs at least 30 experts working with him in the Chechen capital, Grozny, 
and in Znamenskoye, his Chechen base. They must be Chechens to have local 
credibility, but he can barely find Chechens who will work for him, and none 
who are suitably qualified. 

In the absence of any meaningful human rights investigations, he and his 
staff of 10 are working essentially as social workers, fielding queries from 
distraught Chechens on topics such as pensions and housing. 

In Moscow yesterday, the UN human rights chief, Mary Robinson, stressed the 
need for an "independent, national investigation" of human rights violations 
in Chechnya, a significant shift from the earlier call for an international 
inquiry. 

The UN and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which is 
training some of Mr Kalamanov's staff, are clearly hoping to entrench him in 
office and then to gradually institutionalise a human rights monitoring 
mechanism in Russia. But that will be too late for Chechnya. 

******

#7
Russia favours independent probe into abuses in Chechnya

MOSCOW, April 5 (AFP) - 
Moscow on Wednesday welcomed UN rights chief Mary Robinson's call for an 
independent Russian probe into alleged atrocities by its soldiers in 
Chechnya, but rights bodies said it would never reveal the truth.

The Kremlin's top human rights official for Chechnya, Vladimir Kalamanov, 
said it was an "interesting proposal," adding approvingly that it "will not 
undermine Russia's authority."

Moscow has fiercely rejected any outside investigation into reported abuses 
by government troops against Chechen civilians.

"It will stimulate the task of safeguarding human rights in Chechnya," the 
Russian official said, cited by the ITAR-TASS news agency.

But Kalamanov also appeared to play down the need for any such enquiry, 
asserting that any abuses carried out by Russian soldiers were "isolated 
incidents."

"The violation of human rights by the Russian army is not the main thing of 
course," he said.

"In our opinion, the most important thing is to draw attention to the crimes 
committed by the terrorists and bandits over the past seven years.

"The only guilt of the Russian authorities is that they permitted such things 
to happen on their territory," he told the Interfax news agency in reference 
to kidnappings and other acts of violence by Chechens.

Moscow has portrayed its six-month crackdown in the breakaway republic as a 
drive to wipe out bandits and has rejected widespread allegations of rights 
abuses by Russian troops.

Robinson, who has previously urged an international role in any probe, urged 
Moscow on Tuesday to set up an independent enquiry into detailed reports of 
mass summary executions, rape, torture and other abuses by its soldiers in 
Chechnya.

"I do believe that there have been serious human rights violations" in 
Chechnya, the UN high commissioner for human rights told reporters at the end 
of a controversial five-day visit to Russia and the war-torn North Caucasus.

The enquiry, Robinson said, should include independent lawyers and 
non-governmental organisations working alongside civil and military 
prosecutors.

But Russian and international human rights bodies told AFP that Moscow would 
make sure that any investigation whitewashed its troops' behaviour.

"It would be better for there to be an international commission. It would be 
more independent and more objective," said Arseny Roginsky, a leading member 
of Russian human rights body Memorial.

Amnesty International, which last week reported rape, torture and even murder 
at Russian-run detention centres in Chechnya, said Moscow had shown no 
"political will" to properly investigate the allegations.

"We know of only one investigation which was initiated last week against one 
officer for the alleged rape and killing of a Chechen woman, but that's not 
enough," said Amnesty researcher Marianna Katzarova, who collected the 
testimony for the rights body's report on the secret jails.

Russian officials on Sunday denied Robinson's request to see the five 
detention centres highlighted in the Amnesty report. Moscow denies the 
prisons exist.

New-York based Human Rights Watch said the two major obstacles to a proper 
Russian enquiry are that Moscow dismisses Chechen eyewitness accounts of 
atrocities as lies and the witnesses are too frightened of Russian officials 
to testify.

"If you add those two up there's very little hope that a Russian enquiry into 
the warcrimes will yield the necessary result," said Diederik Lohman, head of 
HRW's Moscow office.

Even Russia's own human rights ombudsman, Oleg Mirnonov, condemned as a 
whitewash investigations by military prosecutors into three reported 
massacres in Alkhan-Yurt in December and in the capital Grozny in January and 
February.

"Russian and international human rights organisations must ensure that 
prosecutors launch a fresh investigation into these events," he told AFP.

******

#8
Stratfor.com
Environmental Extortion: Russia’s New Revenue Stream
April 5, 2000

Lt. Gen. Valery Kapachin, the head of Russia’s chemical weapons destruction
program, stated March 31 that Moscow would need $6 billion to meet Russia’s
goal of destroying 40,000 to 44,000 metric tons of its chemical weapons by
2007. Faced with a West unwilling to grant loans to subsidize Russia’
budget shortfall, Russia is instead stating that programs regarding the
dismantling of the Soviet military machine cannot be completed without
outside funding. This will force a multi-year, multi-billion dollar Western
investment into Russia. 

Russia is bound by the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) to dispose of
1 percent of its chemical weapons stocks by April 2000, and 20 percent by
2002. However, Kapachin admitted that despite $1 billion in U.S. assistance
to date, Russia has yet to even begin to destroy any stocks. Indeed, all 24
of Russia’s poison gas production facilities have yet to be either
destroyed or refurbished for civilian use. Retooling them would cost $110
million; Russia only has $11 million available in its year 2000 budget. 

No new funding is on the horizon. It would take a minor miracle for the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) to again begin disbursing the $4.5
billion loan it withheld last September. The Group of Seven finance
ministers, due to meet in Washington next week, are expected to further
tighten what credit is still available to Moscow. With oil prices starting
to slide, with each dollar per barrel that oil prices fall, Russia will see
its gross oil revenues drop $100 million a month. 

Furthermore, Russia’s expenses are growing. Russia already owes
international lenders approximately $150 billion; Russia’s debt repayments
will increase from $2.4 billion in the first quarter to $3.1 billion in the
second quarter. Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov stated
on April 3 that the financial cost of the Chechen war has already reached
$385 million – likely a low-end estimate. To date Russia has only met its
budget goals by squeezing its natural gas monopoly, Gazprom, to the
breaking point and by borrowing from the Central Bank. 

These costs, combined with a looming food shortage that will gobble up
still more currency reserves, leave Russia with little cash. Faced with a
shortage of funds, Russia again turns to the West – but not for loans. This
time Russia is dangling the specter of environmental catastrophe and the
thinly veiled menace of chemical warfare. 

This is not the first time Russia has used the nastier detritus of its
military industrial complex to coax funds from the West – ostensibly for
cleanup and disposal. For several years Japan, Norway and the United States
have poured funds into Russia to assist both with nuclear disarmament and
nuclear waste cleanup. 

In the past Western efforts have been split between the Barents and White
Seas in Russia’s Arctic northwest and the Sea of Japan in Russia’s Far
East. About 18 percent of the world’s nuclear reactors lie decaying in
Russia’s Arctic northwest according to the Bellona Foundation. Combining
the remains of Russia’s Northern and Pacific Fleets, there are at least 150
decommissioned nuclear subs; 120 are docked and 104 still have their
nuclear fuel on board. The sheer amount of nuclear waste in these regions
is staggering: 72,000 used nuclear fuel assemblies, 1.8 million gallons of
liquid and 530,000 cubic feet of solid radioactive waste, according to
Russia’s Atomic Energy Ministry. 

The only processing center capable of handling the nuclear fuel from the
decommissioned subs is the Mayak Chemical Combine in the Ural Mountains,
over 2,000 miles from either fleet. Currently, Russia’s infrastructure only
allows 10 subs to be completely stripped of nuclear fuel per year. From
1988 to 1998, only 38 nuclear subs were completely disposed of according to
Izvestia. Last year Russia spent a trifling $5 million on its nuclear
industry. Yet Russia estimates the total cleanup cost for the Koma region
near the Russian-Norwegian border to be at least $3 billion. 

But Kapachin’s revelation that work has barely begun on Russia’s chemical
arsenal is unprecedented. By flatly stating that Russia cannot meet its
obligations under the CWC, Russia is pressuring the United States to either
shell out billions more for projects essential to U.S. national security,
or face the prospect of a leaving the Soviet chemical arsenal intact. 

The combination of environmental degradation and the continued existence of
Russia’s chemical arsenal gives Russia some very unique leverage over
Europe and Japan. The presence of large and decaying fleets of
decommissioned nuclear submarines presents the West – Japan and Norway
especially – with a bizarre problem. They can both stand by and watch the
radiation leak into their water, or they can pony up the cash needed to
clean up the mess. 

The West is already involved in these ongoing efforts. To date the United
States, through the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction program, has
provided over $4.7 billion to assist disarmament programs across the former
Soviet Union – with $1 billion appropriated specifically for chemical
weapons. One of many U.S. programs seeks to expand the Russian
uranium-reprocessing center at Mayak to facilitate the disposal of nuclear
submarine fuel. The U.S. Departments of Defense and Energy are recommending
an additional $475 million for programs to further dismantle the Russian
military’s nuclear weapons program and keep Russia’s nuclear weapons and
know-how within Russia in FY 2001. 

Other projects jointly funded with Japan and Norway address Russia’s
decrepit – and decommissioned – nuclear submarine fleet. Japan has outlaid
approximately $300 million and various European allies smaller amounts to
deal with Russia’s aging weapons of mass destruction. 

Now Russia appears to be pressuring the West to pick up the tab for
Russia’s vast chemical stockpiles as well. It seems the plan is to force
the West to invest resources to develop Russia’s own disarmament and
environmental clean-up industries. Russia expects that once its poison gas
plants are converted to for non-military use they could contribute as much
as $1 billion annually to the Russian economy. Not bad for a bit of
environmental extortion. 

Russia’s plan so far is working. The European Union has already promise
funding for dismantling a chemical weapons facility at Nizhnii Novograd and
the United States is building a chemical weapons destruction facility at
Shchyuchye. Now that Kapachin has put forth the $6 billion figure, the West
can wrangle over how to raise the money needed. 

This is not quite a win-win situation for Russia. First of all, the West is
already leery. The West will only supply the cash if it can ensure that its
resources are spent on the appropriate projects. Russia lacks a clean
record on this matter. The West does not want to fall into the trap of
simply supplying Russia with raw funds for it to do with as it sees fit. A
more likely outcome would be for U.S., U.K. and Japanese nuclear expertise
and technology to be transferred so that Russia could disarm itself under
Western supervision. This holds the risk of allowing Russia to enhance its
military-industrial complex with dual use technology, but the only other
alternative is to ship everything overseas for treatment and
decommissioning – an impossibly expensive task. 

Furthermore, the decaying nuclear and chemical arsenals are still on
Russian soil. But since the worst pollution is concentrated on the
borderlands near Western countries, Russia is in a good position to wring
every last drop of clean-up funds out of the West. Russia can’t qualify for
loans and it won’t beg for assistance; instead it’s trying extortion. If
Russia’s bid to get the West to pay for its chemical weapons disposal works
as it should, expect Russia to claim poverty when the issue of paying for
nuclear disarmament comes up again. The United States has already supplied
$3.7 billion to disarm about 5,000 nuclear warheads. In the coming years it
will provide much, much more. 

*******

#9
The Independent (UK)
5 April 2000
[for personal use only]
HOW ANARCHIC URANUS SAVED ME FROM A CAREER AS AN ASTROLOGER
STREET LIFE: SAMOTECHNY LANE, MOSCOW
By Helen Womack

THE SECRET of enjoying life in Russia is to drift. If you are a control
freak, this maddening country will soon give you a heart attack. But if you
go with the flow, you will discover how, in an almost magical way, one
thing invariably leads to another. 

You may remember me telling you how a friend fell and twisted his ankle.
His doctor, being Russian and therefore open to the irrational, advised him
not only to have an X-ray but also to consult an astrologer. I went with
him to see Tatyana Gorbunova and, before I knew it, she was doing my
horoscope as well. 

Tatyana, golden-haired, bespectacled and suitably mystical, turned out to
be a trainee astrologer. She reckoned to see in my birth chart not only the
usual freedom-loving and altruistic characteristics of an Aquarius but
also, "unrealised occult powers" that could make me an astrologer too. She
gave me some books and promised that if I did my homework, she would take
me with her to her next class at the Astrology Academy. 

The scepticism of the journalist lost out to the thirst for new experiences
that is typical of those born under the sign of the water carrier. I
plunged into the books. I could not understand a thing about the "aspects
of the planets" or why the Moon "exalts" in Taurus and found myself seeking
clarification during further visits to Tatyana's incense-filled home. 

There was something attractive about her searching spirit. She said that in
Soviet times, she had studied French and worked as a librarian. Perestroika
had liberated her spiritually rather than politically, enabling her to read
books on comparative religion. 

At first she studied Russian Orthodoxy. Then she became interested in
Hinduism and went to live for a while in India. Her fascination with
psychology drew her to astrology as an instrument for gaining insights into
the characters of other people. 

The question lay people always asked, she said, was how much room there was
for free will and how much life was predetermined by fate. It was a mystery
that applied also to countries, which had their zodiac signs just as people
did. Like me, Russia was Aquarius, an impractical idealist, believing in
human equality, and perhaps about to come into her own in the Age of
Aquarius. 

By this point, I was dying to go to the Astrology Academy but Tatyana had
one more lesson for me. "Remember," she said, "the astrologer should always
be motivated by goodwill. You should always emphasise the positive and
weigh the dangers of revealing anything negative, as what you say can
become a self-fulfilling prophecy." At that, she said I was ready to join
the evening classes at the small, fee-paying school, founded 10 years ago
when astrology came out of the closet thanks to Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms. 

The academy was in a building belonging to the Economics Ministry. In one
room, the Association of Taxpayers was holding a meeting. In another sat
the astrology students, listening intently to the lecturer, Dr Mikhail
Levin, a mathematician. "Astrology is a science," he was saying as I took
my seat. Then I noticed that almost every one of the 30 or so people in the
stuffy room was a fortysomething bespectacled woman like Tatyana and me. I
nearly fled in horror. 

I am glad I stayed because, after some esoteric stuff, the students
gathered round a computer and began charting the horoscope of Vladimir
Putin, the "balanced" Libra about to take over from the "unpredictable"
Aquarius, Boris Yeltsin. Three days before the election, they foresaw for
him "career changes, an improvement in his social position and
opportunities for work- related travel". 

Afterwards, I had to tell Tatyana that astrology was probably not for me,
as my irreverent streak was stronger than my occult potential. She said she
had expected such an outcome. "As an Aquarius, you are ruled by Uranus, the
anarchic planet of laughter." 

*******

#10
AFX EUROPE
RUSSIAN ECONOMY WILL TAKE YEARS TO CLEAN UP DESPITE PUTIN WIN - SG SECURITIES
April 4, 2000

Many of the problems which caused the Russian economic crash in 1998 remain
endemic in the system and will take years to clean up, despite Vladimir
Putin's win in the presidential election, SG Securities said in its April
report on Central and Eastern Europe Economics. 

The problems in Russia include corruption, poor corporate governance and a
poor legal framework, according to the SG report, compiled by Stan Rudcenko. 

SG said, however, that Putin's election is good news from the market's
point of view, whatever the fears about a return to an authoritarian style
of government. 

The short-term benefits should include political stability, better
government, reforms, better relations with the west, reversal of capital
flight and promises of legislation to encourage foreign investment,
Rudcenko said. 

He nevertheless issued a "health warning" on Russia, saying: "Many of the
problems which caused the crash of 1999 remain endemic in the system and
will take years to clean up." 

SG predicted that Russian GDP growth will reach 5 pct this year, while
inflation should reduce to below 20 pct by year-end. 

The credit outlook has improved after the recent rescheduling of Soviet-era
debt, the brokerage noted. 

******

#11
BBC MONITORING
KREMLIN FEARS OF "DEFEAT FOR PUTIN" PULL DEPUTY PM FROM GOVERNOR RACE
Source: NTV International, Moscow in Russian 1500 gmt 4 Apr 00 

[Presenter] So, today's main political sensation - it seems that Valentina
Matviyenko is withdrawing from the race for the governorship of St
Petersburg. She says that Vladimir Putin has asked her to remain in
government. According to Matviyenko, she is still thinking about it. It is,
however, obvious that Valentina Matviyenko has been made an offer that
would be hard to refuse. Here, with the details, is Pavel (?Lapkov): 

[Matviyenko] The head of state has called me back from scheduled leave to
carry on working within the Cabinet of Ministers and to take part in the
formation of the structure and composition of a new government. In this
connection, he has asked me not to register as a candidate for the
governorship of St Petersburg. 

[Correspondent] Matviyenko had been expected to withdraw for more than a
week. It became known immediately after the presidential elections that the
president would not risk his own political capital by backing her. 

Matviyenko emerged as the Kremlin's candidate for St Petersburg governor
quite suddenly after Sergey Stepashin had withdrawn in just as strange a
fashion. Putin was conducting an experiment. First, he encouraged the
candidate with generalized offers of support and then monitored the trend
of the candidate's ratings. Stepashin immediately failed to suit and the
acting president never once offered his support outright. 

Matviyenko managed to transfer Stepashin's entire political base in St
Petersburg to herself. She reached agreement with the Union of Right-Wing
Forces and with Yabloko and obtained the noncommittal support of the acting
president... However, Matviyenko's rating stuck at around 15 per cent and
Putin has never spoken in her favour again. They have never appeared
together even when attending the same events in their native St Petersburg.
Meanwhile, the incumbent governor, Vladimir Yakovlev has been gaining
popularity on two counts - one: construction of major facilities begun in
[former mayor Anatoliy] Sobchak's day in St Petersburg is coming to an end;
and, Yakovlev has been constantly presenting the voters with these results
along with pensions that are paid on time... 

The Kremlin forecasts that if things go on like this Matviyenko could lose
and that would be interpreted as the first, post-election, defeat for Putin
and, moreover, in his native city. The Kremlin has evidently decided to
bring the experiment to a close and particularly since Yakovlev saw that
Putin got an almost record percentage of votes from St Petersburg - 60 per
cent. That cannot pass unnoticed... 

Yakovlev is now the enforced choice for Putin. One of the founders of the
Fatherland-All Russia bloc, circumstances dictated that he was the first to
move to the acting president's camp, becoming just as a passionate an
adherent of Unity. Putin is now obviously forced to rely on him in
everything relating to his home city. Indirect confirmation of this is the
fact that Matviyenko's withdrawal was preceded by a meeting yesterday
between Yakovlev and [presidential administration chief] Aleksandr Voloshin. 

It's an unlikely coincidence and Matviyenko's refusal to stand is obviously
the initiative of Vladimir Putin who doesn't want to lose. It could now be
the case that in his home city Putin is placing his trust in someone who
only recently he publicly accused of persecuting his mentor, Anatoliy
Sobchak. 

******

#12
BBC MONITORING 
NEWSPAPER BEWILDERED BY SPONSORS OF RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
Source: 'Izvestiya', Moscow, in Russian 1 Apr 00 

A Russian newspaper has expressed bewilderment at the possible motives
behind some of the Russian presidential candidates' financial sponsors. For
example, among Russian Communist Party leader Gennadiy Zyuganov's sponsors
were the Rover Limited Company and the Ryazan and Voronezh Regional
branches of the All-Russia Society for the Deaf. The following are excerpts
from an article published in 'Izvestiya' on 1st April: 

Even though the presidential election took place successfully on 26th
March, the election campaign staffs are still working. They are preparing
the final financial reports that each candidate must submit to the Central
Electoral Commission [CEC] no later than 30 days after the publication of
the election results. 

During an election it is possible to discover many interesting things about
the contents of presidential contenders' purses. In addition to the
candidates' income declarations, however, the lists of their election
campaign sponsors are also interesting in their own way. 

When studying these documents, it is difficult to understand the motives
that prompted leaders or work forces [to donate money to particular
candidates]. Why did some provincial limited company or closed joint-stock
company suddenly decide to give material support to one Moscow politician
or another. For example, Communist leader Gennadiy Zyuganov was sponsored
by the Kronkhimproyekt Limited Company and the Stroyservisbaza Limited
Company. The former donated R2,850,000 and the latter R15,000 more than
that. The Rover Limited Company spared R15m for the Communist Party of the
Russian Federation leader. Most curious of all, contributions towards the
triumph of Communism were made by the Ryazan and Voronezh Regional branches
of the All-Russia Society for the Deaf. They contributed a "modest" R2.5m
each. 

It is said that sponsors were lining up to contribute to Vladimir Putin's
election campaign fund. There was a fierce struggle for the opportunity to
be noticed by the favourite. Few were lucky. The lucky ones included the
Konservnyy Zavod Stavropolskiy [Stavropolskiy Canning Plant] Open
Joint-Stock Company (which made a modest contribution of R800,000) and the
Stroitelnaya Korporatsiya Vozrozhdeniye Sankt-Peterburga [Regeneration of
St Petersburg Construction Corporation] Open Joint-Stock Company (which
contributed slightly more - R1.5m). Putin's list also includes highly
substantial sponsors - the GAZ Open Joint-Stock Company and the
Magnitorskiy Metallurgicheskiy Kombinat Open Joint-Stock Company. These
giants contributed R2m each. For some reason, [Yabloko leader] Grigoriy
Yavlinskiy was supported by insurance companies - the Strakhovaya Kompaniya
[Insurance Company] ROLYeS Limited Company and the Strakhovaya Kompaniya
ASKO (both gave over R3.3m). 

The gubernatorial candidates' sponsor lists are also curious. [Samara
Region governor] Konstantin Titov's sponsors are predominantly from the
Volga region (the Volgakhimprom Closed Joint-Stock Company, the Samara
Telekom Closed Joint-Stock Company and the Volgotanker Open Joint-Stock
Company), whereas [Kemerovo Region governor] Aman Tuleyev's are from
Kemerovo (the Torgovyy Dom Severnyy Kuzbass [North Kuzbass Trade Centre]
Closed Joint-Stock Company, the Yuzhkuzbassugol Closed Joint-Stock Company
and the Trest Kemerovopromstroy Open Joint-Stock Company). 

Almost all the candidates were thrifty. True, this circumstance is
attributable not so much to personal qualities as to the fear of a second
round. After all, the law does not permit funds to be granted for a repeat
vote. The candidates have to return all the funds from their election
campaign fund accounts to their sponsors, in proportion to the amounts
received... The total amount paid into all the candidates' election
campaign funds was over R155m, of which slightly over R111m was spent. So
R44m will be returned. Donors will clearly receive risible sums, but they
are unlikely to be offended by this. If a campaign staff fails to reimburse
its sponsors part of their money, the Sberbank [Savings Bank] will transfer
these funds to the CEC's account at the CEC's request. 

*******

#13
Rossiiskaya Gazeta
April 4, 2000
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
I BELIEVE THE STATE MUST...
Excerpts from the book "In the First Person. Conversations 
with Vladimir Putin." M., Vagrius, 2000. The editorial work on 
the book was completed on March 6, 2000 

"I CAN CRUCIFY ANYONE MYSELF"

Question: Which political leader interests you?
Answer: Napoleon. (Laughs)

Question: And seriously?
Answer: De Gaulle, probably. I also like Erhard. A very 
pragmatic man. He built a new, post-war Germany. By the way, 
his concept of national restoration began with the 
determination of new moral values for society. It was 
especially important for Germany after the collapse of the Nazi 
ideology.

Question: Why did not cancel all foreign trips until the 
elections?
Answer: Officially, because the president and the premier 
may not simultaneously leave the country. And I am both the 
premier and the acting president. 

Question: And frankly speaking? Did you fear that they 
would crucify you over Chechnya?
Answer: I can crucify anyone myself. Simply, they were not 
eager to meet with us because of Chechnya, and when they did 
wish to meet, the format they offered did not suit us. Too 
low-level.
If you want to have the requisite level, change your stand in 
the Caucasus, they said. This did not suit us either, because 
this would have cost us much more than all my trips abroad.

Question: But while you still could travel as the premier, 
you met with Bill Clinton in New Zealand, right?
Answer: Yes, I liked him.

Question: Why?
Answer: He is a charming man. I mean when he talks.

Question: You apparently like each other. He has recently 
supported you on Internet.
Answer: He was attentive also during that first meeting.
When we were in New Zealand -- I don't remember what it was, 
lunch or dinner -- he specially approached me. We ate at 
different tables. We talked about something, and then he said, 
Well, shall we go? Everybody lined up --the leaders of other 
countries, guests -- forming a corridor, and the two of us made 
a show of walking through it. We left the room to applause. I 
accepted it as a sign of special attention. Maybe this is why 
he impressed me. Joke. Indeed, when you talk with him, he 
appears to be a sincere, open-hearted and nice man, which is 
very important.

Question: He has a natural charm. 
Answer: Could be. It is very difficult to learn to do this.
I know this very well. 

Question: Who else did you meet personally?
Answer: Kohl, Thatcher and Major.

Question: When you worked in St. Petersburg?
Answer: Yes.

Question: Did you speak German with Kohl?
Answer: He spent nearly 30 minutes with Sobchak. I 
interpreted for them. They talked about general subject, 
nothing in particular. During lunch. That's when he said: 
"Let's not discuss anything seriously now. Come to Bonn in a 
fortnight, and we will discuss everything."
Sobchak accepted the invitation and took me along. It was 
a business trip. Do you know what surprised me most? I did not 
expect that one of Europe's largest politicians knows Russia so 
well. I was impressed. 
Today I will hardly reproduce everything he said, but I 
remember my impressions. He knows the history of our country 
and its modern life exceedingly well. The understands the 
essence of developments. And I was particularly pleased when he 
said he could not imagine Europe without Russia. He said that 
Germans not only need the Russian market, but want Russia to 
become a befitting partner. 

Question: But it could be simple politeness.
Answer: No, I don't think so. Those were not protocol 
words.
I came to the conclusion that he really thinks so.

Question: Such a big leader, and such a scandal after his 
resignation. Strange?
Answer: Absolutely not. The scandal is always as big as 
the leader. In fact, they have become weaker and are being 
beaten up.
In a measure, the CDU leadership made mistakes, too. Sixteen 
years is enough for any people, even such stable people as 
Germans, to grow tired of a leader, even a strong one like Kohl.
They should have seen the danger in time.

"FEELING OF FELLOWSHIP"

Question: Whose advice do you seek? Whom do you trust? You 
said your advisers set you the task for the first year: to form 
a team. Who are you team members? Whom do you trust?
Answer: Trust? I trust Sergei Ivanov, the Security Council 
Secretary.

Question: How long do you know each other?
Answer: Very long, but not very closely. He began his 
career in the Leningrad directorate of the KGB. At that time I 
simply knew about him. Then he moved to Moscow and settled 
here. He had several foreign postings, several years each. We 
had friends in common. On the whole, information about him came 
from different sources, positive information. He knows several 
languages:
English, Swedish and Finnish, I think. I think he is the right 
man for his post. He has recently returned from the States, 
where he had worked very well. He met with Clinton, Albright 
and Berger. I am satisfied with his work. 

Question: But you have not 'eaten a peck of salt' with him 
yet.
Answer: Of course, it is always better to put things to 
practical test. But you must agree that there is such thing as 
the felling of fellowship. I have it with Ivanov. And with 
Nikolai Patrushev and Dima Medvedev, too. 

Question: Medvedev heads your election staff. Is he from 
St.
Petersburg, too?
Answer: He worked at the chair of civil law in Leningrad 
University, is a master of law and high-class expert. When I 
worked with Sobchak, I needed good staff in the mayoral office. 
I came for help to the university's law department, and they 
suggested Dima. When I was deputy mayor, he was my adviser, for 
about 18 months. Some time after those unsuccessful elections, 
he left the office and returned to the university. 

Question: Did you invite him to Moscow recently?
Answer: Very recently, this year. In general, I had a 
different idea for Dima. I wanted him to head the Federal 
Securities Commission. He is a specialist on the securities 
stock. He seems to like working on our team, but what job he 
should have? We'll see. 

Question: And who else do you trust?
Answer: I trust Aleksei Kudrin. He is first deputy finance 
minister now. I think he is an upright man and a professional. 
We had worked together for Sobchak, both as his deputies. Years 
of joint work is a good way to know somebody. 

Question: And where did Igor Sechin come from?
Answer: Sechin worked in St. Petersburg, too, in the 
protocol department. He is a philologist by education. He knows 
Portuguese, French and Spanish. Worked abroad, in Mozambique 
and Angola. 

Question: Did he fight?
Answer: Well, he did. Later he worked in the executive 
committee of the Leningrad City Council. When I became deputy 
mayor and was recruiting my staff, I considered many 
candidates, and I liked Sechin. I offered him a job. It was in 
1992 or 1993.
And when I went to work in Moscow, he asked me to take him 
along.
I did. 

"THOSE VIRTUAL THINGS"

Question: What will happen to the old guards in the 
Kremlin, that camarilla? Everyone says: Wait till Putin wins 
the elections and gets rid of them. He'll fire them all, at 
best.
Answer: You know, this logic is characteristic for people 
with totalitarian mentality. Because this is what they think a 
man who wants to hold his post for the rest of his life must do.
But this is not what I want. 

Question: But some people are regarded as social allergens.
We discussed Pavel Borodin. Or chief of the presidential staff 
Alexander Voloshin. The public doesn't like him.
Answer: It is not so much the public, as a part of the 
establishment that does not like Voloshin. There is a negative 
element; it developed at the level of groups and clans, which 
fought each other. Voloshin was hit, too. They used incorrect 
methods, by the way. I don't regard this as the grounds for 
firing anyone. 
I am more than satisfied with him as of now. Voloshin's 
job is rather delicate. I discussed with him candidates for his 
post, in particular Dima Medvedev. Voloshin said: "Let Dima 
work as a deputy first, and then he will probably grow enough 
to replace me." It's not use thinking about this now. 

Question: But it would seem reasonable to reply to the 
accusations, which society made against the Kremlin, the team 
of the former president. 
Answer: I have been working for the state for a very long 
time. Am I one of the team or not? These are virtual things. In 
fact, man with his knowledge, working skills and talents is 
more important. I will rely on my opinion of men, decide if 
they are good for their job or nor. Because this is what 
matters.
And by the way, I am not president yet. I must first win 
the elections. Frankly speaking, I am a superstitious man, and 
try not to think about such things in advance. Or you suggest 
that I should?

*******