March 27, 2000    
This Date's Issues: 4201 • 4202   

Johnson's Russia List
#4202
27 March 2000
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. Reuters: Results of Russian presidential polls at 0600 GMT.
2. Reuters: European monitors say Russia media biased for Putin.
3. Reuters: Russia tests ageing sea-based ballistic missile.
4. Reuters: Mike Collett-White, Putin no miracle man for Russian 
economy.
5. MSNBC: Dana Lewis, Putin plans ‘unpopular’ reforms. Kremlin 
sources hint economic moves planned.
6. Moskovsky Komsomolets: Vadim Sukhoverkhov, WHAT THE NEW 
PRESIDENT'S FIRST STEPS MIGHT BE. Putin Has Serious Reshuffling 
in Mind.
7. Interfax: RUSSIAN TYCOON BEREZOVSKIY NEVER DOUBTED OUTCOME 
OF ELECTIONS.
8. BBC MONITORING: PUTIN MUST DISTANCE HIMSELF FROM HIS PAST - 
GORBACHEV.
9. Ira Straus: small is ugly (continued).
10. BBC MONITORING: RUSSIAN TV OBSERVER SAYS PUTIN MAY BE A 
WORSE MILITARY DICTATOR THAN PINOCHET.
11. BBC MONITORING: PUTIN MAGNANIMOUS IN VICTORY, LOOKS AT 
TASKS IN HAND.
12. Reuters: Timothy Heritage, Russia's Putin still to show 
his true colours.]

******

#1
TABLE-Results of Russian presidential polls at 0600 GMT

MOSCOW, March 27 (Reuters) - Following are partial official results of 
Russia's presidential polls on Sunday with 94.27 percent of the votes counted 
as issued by the Central Election Commission at 0600 GMT on Monday. 

The turnout was 68.86 percent. 

Percent of votes counted 

Vladimir Putin 52.52 
Gennady Zyuganov 29.44 
Grigory Yavlinsky 5.85 
Aman Tuleyev 3.04 
Vladimir Zhirinovsky 2.72 
Konstantin Titov 1.50 
Ella Pamfilova 1.02 
Stanislav Govorukhin 0.45 
Yuri Skuratov 0.43 
Alexei Podberyozkin 0.14 
Umar Dzhabrailov 0.08 
Against all 1.90 

The total may not make up 100 percent, because an unspecified number of 
ballots were ruled invalid by election commissions. 

A candidate has to receive more than 50 percent of the votes cast to win 
outright in the first round. 

******

#2
European monitors say Russia media biased for Putin
By Michael Steen

MOSCOW, March 27 (Reuters) - Vladimir Putin sailed to victory in Russia's 
presidential election on a tide of biased media coverage, a European 
monitoring group said on Monday. 

Putin, who has been Russia's acting president since the beginning of the 
year, won Sunday's election with around 52 percent of the vote, way ahead of 
Communist candidate Gennady Zyuganov, who polled just under 30 percent. 

Analysts from the European Institute for the Media (EIM), partly funded by 
the European Union, told a news conference that television news coverage had 
devoted nearly half the time spent on all 11 candidates to showing Putin, 
mostly in a good light. 

The group singled out partly state-owned television stations ORT and RTR for 
being ``biased in favour of the incumbent'' and not living up to ethical 
standards in providing full, free and fair coverage of all candidates. 

Putin himself conceded his key rivals had been shut out. 

``I want to point out that the Communists achieved that (30 percent) level 
even though -- let us be direct and honest about this -- they did not have 
that many opportunities in the media, especially electronic media,'' he said 
on Sunday. 

EIM Director-General Jo Groebel said the campaign coverage had not been as 
marked by smear attacks -- called 'kompromat' in Russian -- as was the case 
in December's parliamentary election. 

``However, during the final week of the campaign, the leading TV channel ORT 
once again resorted to 'kompromat' and 'black PR','' Groebel said. ``Meaning 
that opponents of the acting president were denigrated in numerous ways.'' 

The great majority of Russia's 108 million voters rely on ORT and RTR as 
their only sources of news. On Thursday last week, ORT's main evening news 
carried three separate reports savaging liberal candidate Grigory Yavlinsky. 

ORT accused Yavlinsky of illegally taking money from foreign backers -- a 
charge his office denied -- and, in a country where anti-semitism and 
homophobia can be found, showed groups of Jews and homosexuals voicing 
support for him. 

Yavlinsky came third in the election with less than six percent of the vote. 

OTHER CANDIDATES LEFT TO SQUABBLE 

EIM, based in Duesseldorf in Germany, also criticised Putin's decision not to 
campaign formally or publish a manifesto, instead taking what the Kremlin 
called working trips across the country. On one occasion, he upstaged his 
rivals by flying to separatist Chechnya in a fighter jet. 

``Since they could not attack Putin on policies, the other candidates were 
left to attack one another,'' EIM said in its report, adding that candidates 
often attacked those with political policies close to their own. 

Groebel stopped short of saying the media won the election for Putin but said 
it formed a crucial ``bridge'' between candidates and voters, and the more 
one candidate appeared on television the better his chances. 

EIM also quoted some independent media as saying the government had pressured 
them to minimise criticism of Putin, threatening financial measures such as 
increasing broadcast costs or calling in loans from partly state-owned banks. 

``Freedom of expression and the autonomy of the media in Russia may encounter 
new tests in the future,'' Groebel said. 

EIM said it collated data from all television and print media from March 2 to 
March 21 and found that Putin received 33 percent of all national television 
coverage, compared to around 10 percent each from the three other leading 
contenders. 

In terms of television news coverage, Putin's share of coverage jumped to 48 
percent, while Zyuganov, Yavlinsky and flamboyant nationalist Vladimir 
Zhirinovsky each received around 10 percent of total coverage. 

*******

#3
Russia tests ageing sea-based ballistic missile

MOSCOW, March 27 (Reuters) - Russia successfully launched an old
submarine-based ballistic missile on Monday as part of a programme to
extend the life span of outdated weaponry, a navy spokesman said. 

The RSM-54 missile, called Skiff in NATO's classification, was launched in
the Barents Sea at 10 a.m. (0700 GMT) from a 667 BDRM nuclear submarine, or
Delta IV under U.S. Defence Department classification. 

It hit a testing ground in Kamchatka in Russia's Far East at 10.33 a.m.
(0733 GMT). 

``The missile was launched as previously scheduled with the purpose of
extending the shelf life of this type of rocket,'' the spokesman said by
telephone. 

RSN-54 missiles were commissioned in 1986. They can carry four or 10
separate warheads but modifications with 10 warheads have never been
deployed. 

Russia has encounted severe difficulties financing replacements for its
ageing missile fleet and has opted not to decommission many of its existing
rockets. 

It has conducted a series of test launches of such missiles over the last
months and has said they have proved to be in good enough condition to
remain in service for several more years. 

President-elect Vladimir Putin, the declared winner in Sunday's election,
has said Russia's nuclear arsenal remains the cornerstone of its defence
system and a powerful deterrent against any large-scale attack. 

*******

#4
ANALYSIS-Putin no miracle man for Russian economy
By Mike Collett-White

MOSCOW, March 27 (Reuters) - Russian President-elect Vladimir Putin warned
early on Monday that miracles don't happen. Analysts trying to guess how
the former KGB spy will run the economy said they tended to agree. 

``Talking about the economy, I would not expect any surprises or miracles
based on Putin's programme,'' said Gintaras Shlyuzhius, chief economist at
Raiffeisen Bank in Moscow. 

``My guess is, not much is going to change very quickly,'' Charles Blitzer,
chief economist for emerging markets at Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette, told
Reuters Television. 

Putin's promises on the economy have been vague and not always consistent.
He has pledged to uphold and extend post-Soviet market reforms while
placing heavy emphasis on reviving the authority of the state. 

He vowed not to make populist decisions before the election, yet promised
to boost state wages and pensions. 

Meanwhile the economy is growing at a healthy rate, the trade balance is in
surplus, foreign exchange reserves are rising and the rouble strengthening. 

But analysts said Putin's macro-economic successes have been largely due to
good fortune since he was appointed prime minister last August and started
his bid for the presidency. 

Strong prices for oil and metals, key Russian exports, have filled budget
coffers and staved off potential debt defaults. The August 1998 rouble
devaluation has also helped by making domestic goods more competitive
against foreign imports, but the effect is wearing off and analysts warned
against complacency. 

FUNDAMENTAL REFORMS REMAIN UNTACKLED 

``There are a number of key issues which have to be tackled,'' Blitzer
said. ``You have corruption, corporate governance, the rule of law and
courts, and you have improved management. 

``It is clear that Mr Putin does not yet have strong views on how far and
how fast to go in these directions.'' 

Denis Rodionov, associate director at Brunswick Warburg in Moscow, said
that one of the areas where Putin's administration had made its actions
speak as loudly as words was tax reform, crucial to Russia's long-term
economic health. 

But he said structural reforms including bankruptcy legislation were
needed, as were steps to defend investors' rights and moves to reduce the
powers of influential business leaders known as ``oligarchs.'' 

``Putin should create the rules of the game to help the government distance
itself from the oligarchs and have equal rules for all,'' Rodionov said. 

Already Boris Berezovsky, often linked to former President Boris Yeltsin's
inner circle known as The Family, has written off Putin's chances of
clipping oligarchs' wings. 

And there are lingering doubts in the West over his ability to address the
reforms Russia desperately needs. 

``Putin has the will to carry out reforms, but he lacks experience and a
clear understanding of how to carry them out,'' said Sergei Glazer, head of
research at Alfa-Bank, Moscow. 

That will was shown on Monday when Putin told deputy prime ministers and
security officials that an economic programme must be put together ``in the
near future.'' 

PUTIN'S GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE A BIG SAY 

Analysts generally welcomed the prospect of a stronger government, which
promises to boost political stability after a turbulent few years under the
ailing and unpredictable Yeltsin. 

Also important will be the makeup of Putin's government, which will be
named after his inauguration in early May. 

First Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov is a skilled debt negotiator
widely tipped to take over as prime minister, and he said on Monday that
Moscow's relations with international financial institutions should improve
after Sunday's ballot. 

While a stalled credit programme from the International Monetary Fund is
less crucial to Russia now the economy is growing, it would provide a
welcome safety cushion. 

``The IMF money would be for other purposes -- to provide greater stability
even if the oil price falls by 50 percent, and as an indicator for
investors,'' Rodionov said. 

While expectations are limited, the initial economic reaction to Putin's
expected victory has been good. 

The IMF said on Sunday that the election could pave the way for informal
talks on reforms and lending soon, while the Russian stock market firmed. 

International credit rating agency Fitch IBCA said on Monday it was likely
to upgrade Russia's outstanding Eurobonds to the single-B category from CCC
after a review of Russia's foreign currency debt ratings in May. 

*******

#5
MSNBC
Putin plans ‘unpopular’ reforms 
Kremlin sources hint economic moves planned 
March 27, 2000 
By Dana Lewis
Dana Lewis is NBC News’ Moscow correspondent.

MOSCOW, March 27 — At polling place 124 in Moscow at midday Sunday, the
line was very short — a worrying sign for acting President Vladimir Putin,
whose main rival in this presidential election was apathy. But within
hours, it was confirmed that voter turnout had passed the 50 percent mark
necessary for a valid election. From there, it was really academic. Whether
or not Putin faced a runoff or won it outright in round one, it appeared
certain that a man who six months ago was a virtually unknown former KGB
agent was to lead Russia. 

STANDING IN THAT line were Irina Smelyanova and her husband. Both said
they voted for Putin, having connected with his campaign’s pledge to bring
a crime-ridden and corrupt Russia under control.
“Yes, I think, I hope he will do things to control the government and
all the things people do,” she told me. 
Many in the West fear that Putin’s talk of crackdowns and greater
control could signify a move in the direction of the old Soviet system. But
in Russia, the view is quite different. Since communism collapsed 10 years
ago, chaos has reigned. From politics to the economy, from international
prestige to street crime, Russians yearn for the stability of the old days,
even if they don’t miss the repressive political system that imposed it.
“Because many people of our country do things they shouldn’t do, they
don’t control themselves and we need control,” Smelyanova said.

BEHIND THE VEIL 
Putin’s appeal is built on that promise and little else. He has done or
said little to outline how he plans to map Russia’s economic recovery.
Beyond vague promises to restore order in the streets, pride in Russia’s
military and its reputation abroad, Putin has been a difficult man to pin
down.
In an exclusive interview Sunday with NBC News, former Yeltsin
spokesman and current Putin aide Dmitri Yakushkin indicated that his boss’
first step will be to publish an economic plan. 
“The situation in the economy is very complicated, and it’s very
difficult to choose the right way to approach the situation,” he said.
Yakushkin said Putin will use his mandate as president to launch
“measures which we would call unpopular.” With the economy showing some
signs of life, Yakushkin said, the current Kremlin thinking is that it may
be time for some “unpopular, drastic measures to make the economy work
well.” 
Outside Russia, of course, international financial experts would argue
that it is well past time. After a good start in the early Yeltsin years on
privatization and reforming business and tax law, those measure ground to a
halt in the second half of the 1990s as a Communist-controlled Parliament
and a crippling ruble crisis forced reformists to retreat.
Now, with Putin almost assured of victory, Kremlin sources said some of
these lingering issues will be tackled anew. Tough-talking Putin will also
look to privatization to raise government revenue, the sources said. 

THE NITTY-GRITTY
Topping the shopping list, these sources said, is a reform of land
ownership laws. To date, there is still no privatization of land ownership
in Russia, with the state owning much of the land under factories, farms
and even apartment buildings. 
Energy and other utilities will also be on the list. In most of
Russia, people still pay almost nothing for subsidized heat, water and
electricity. The sources said Putin will move to institute billing, a
measure with unpredictable consequences. 
Yakushkin would not confirm the plan. But he did say such a move “could
bring enormous social consequences.” 

ARREARS AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Russia has been unable to meet its obligations to state pensioners and
retired soldiers for several years now. In many months, even active
government employees — a huge swath of the economy in Russia — can’t be
paid. Because of that, the Kremlin is said to be worried that eliminating
property, energy and utility subsidies could cause unrest.
Russia also subsidizes huge amounts of industry that aren’t profitable.
Large factories employing thousands of people will come under new scrutiny,
the sources said, and layoffs could be ordered as some factories are closed
altogether. 

BEHIND THE PLAN
Putin apparently has been preparing these measures for some time. As
acting president, Putin has met almost on a weekly basis with Gherman Gref,
head of Russia’s Center for Strategic Projects, who is working up a 10-year
plan for Russia’s economy. 
Putin has a huge challenge ahead if the average Russian is to share in
the wealth generated by the small, hugely affluent “oligarch” class. Last
week, Putin seemed to downplay the idea that the state would interfere with
private enterprise and in fact hinted that it would give entrepreneurs even
more freedom. 
He said the state could be strengthened by “withdrawal from what in
principle it should not be involved in. At long last, the state should get
down to its basic function — law enforcement, the judiciary and
administration. ”
“We have too much regulation in one sphere and an obvious absence of
the state in another,” he said. “And there are screams from investors and
businessmen that it is impossible for them to work.”
If Putin follows through, he will have to succeed where Yeltsin failed.
Yeltsin set Russia on a path of economic and democratic reform, but law
enforcement flagged and the post-Soviet economic boom was confined almost
entirely to a few elite “oligarchs.” The bulk of the population found
itself in debt and subjected to rising crime rates.

INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION
From abroad, U.S. and European officials who are vital to Moscow for
its financial lifeline are watching Putin’s moves carefully. 
Rep. Christopher Cox, the California Republican who was in Moscow as an
elections monitor, said Russia needs to address the impression that foreign
aid is simply being funneled into the foreign accounts of Russia’s
financial elite.
Cox maintains that in the United States, at least, there is no longer a
political consensus for pouring financial aid into an economy that isn’t
working and isn’t being reformed. He described the practices as “a subsidy
for organized crime.”

*******

#6
Moskovsky Komsomolets
March 27, 2000
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
WHAT THE NEW PRESIDENT'S FIRST STEPS MIGHT BE
Putin Has Serious Reshuffling in Mind
By Vadim SUKHOVERKHOV

It is clear that the "cleansing" of the Kremlin and 
government offices from old-timers will be one of the main 
tasks for Vladimir Putin after the election. The selection of 
those who will replace them will give more ground to forecast 
his further moves better than any economic program.
The main suspense is over the fate of Aleksandr Voloshin 
who, at first glance, blended pretty well into Putin's team.
Those who know the Kremlin "kitchen" say, however, that shortly 
after the election Voloshin will be dismissed from the 
presidential administration with honour but left in the range, 
so to speak. He is likely to be put in a position to handle his 
favourite economic affairs, for instance, to form Gosneft, a 
certain state monopoly which is conceived as one of the 
pillars of the Russian economy.
Putin's office manager Sechin, Security Council secretary 
Ivanov and Federal Security Service (FSB) director Patrushev 
are mentioned more frequently than any others as candidates to 
the post of his chief of staff. The Kremlin regards Sechin as 
the best variant. If, however, Patrushev inherits this post, 
his first deputy Viktor Cherkesov, who was assigned to German 
Gref's Centre for Strategic Research for the period of the 
election campaign, can take over as the FSB director.
Deputy chief of staff Pollyeva is likely to be dismissed, 
too. There is a good chance that Voloshin's first deputy Igor 
Shabdurasulov will be again "deported" to the ORT, if he 
agrees, of course. His post can be taken over by Vladislav 
Surkov about whom the Kremlin insiders proudly say that he 
"built" the Duma in a matter of one month. Satisfaction over 
this fact is all the more strong as Surkov's predecessor Andrei 
Loginov was unable to frighten and tame the Duma during the 
preceding four years.
Among the medium-level employees only Anton 
Danilov-Danilian, who heads the main economic department, and 
Larisa Brycheva, the head of the main legal department, can 
count on the continuation of their tenure in the Kremlin. It is 
on them that the work of the government staff, which has moved 
to the Kremlin together with Putin, has depended in the past 
three months. Insiders say that no document can get to Mikhail 
Kasyanov's desk until it is initialled by them.
The law has it that the President-elect can form a 
government only two months after the voting date. It is very 
difficult to analyse the possible composition of the new 
Cabinet.
Two options are possible, however. According to one, Putin, 
just as now, will concentrate the main functions of the 
government in the Kremlin. In that case he will need a purely 
"technocratic" Cabinet and it will be headed by efficient and 
disciplined Kasyanov. The latter will put Aleksei Kudrin and 
his St. Pete team of "fledglings from Anatoly Chubais's nest" 
in the office of the Finance Minister.
According to the other option, a left-of-centre government 
will be formed with the participation of Governors Aman Tuleyev 
and Boris Gromov. Yevgeny Primakov can also be invited to join 
the new Cabinet.

******

#7
RUSSIAN TYCOON BEREZOVSKIY NEVER DOUBTED OUTCOME OF ELECTIONS
Interfax 

Moscow, 27th March: The outcome of the Russian presidential election was
evident back at the end of last year, Duma Deputy Boris Berezovskiy told
Interfax on Monday [27th March]. 

"I do not want to make comments on the event, which was evident at the end
of the past millennium, and I do not plan to make any related comments in
future," Berezovskiy said. 

As for the large rating of the communist leader [Gennadiy Zyuganov], he
said that "several days before the election I said in an interview that the
left-wing movement had great prospects in Russia. There are two reasons for
that: a huge number of poor people and Russia's being a conscientious
country. The combination of these two factors will predetermine the
strength of left-wing forces in Russia for a long time." Berezovskiy was
asked about the recent article in Moskovskiy Komsomolets, in which he
stated that at a recent meeting with Vladimir Putin he would abandon
control of the Russian Public TV channel in exchange for the appointment of
Interior Minister Vladimir Rushaylo as secretary of the Russian Security
Council. 

"`Moskovskiy Komsomolets' (MK) is poorly informed, as always," Berezovskiy
joked. "In reply to Putin's proposal of abandoning Russian Public TV, I
asked for the possibility of myself, as an oligarch, and MK editor-in-chief
Pavel Gusev to be able to leave the country peacefully. Putin was not
against my departure from Russia, but he asked Mr Gusev to stay and work a
bit more." 

******** 

#8
BBC MONITORING
PUTIN MUST DISTANCE HIMSELF FROM HIS PAST - GORBACHEV
Source: Russian Public TV, Moscow, in Russian 0350 gmt 27 Mar 00 

[Presenter] Democratic reform in Russia is associated with the man no
longer in power - Gorbachev... 

Good morning, Mikhail Sergeyevich. 

[Gorbachev, in studio] Good morning... 

[Q] What are the qualities Vladimir Putin has that you lack, and what are
the qualities he lacks that you found necessary as president? 

[A] Let's not look at it that way. The only thing I would like to say is
that my impression, of which I have already spoken and which can now be
restated in more definite terms, as it will no longer affect the outcome of
the vote, is this: I have met him and know him a little. My impression of
Putin as an individual is not bad. He is well educated, is a good thinker
and is restrained, which is important - very important - as he is not rash
in his decisions. 

Then problems begin, which he must take into consideration as he starts in
his post: He lacks the sufficient experience to be able to lead a country
such as this at a time such as this. So whom he will take in as members of
his team and with whom he will start on his action plan will be decisive. 

I also think that we must back him in his efforts, for him to realize that
he must not remain in the past and that he must distance himself from it.
After all, the forces that made him their successor, whom I saw on TV even
today, hope that their protege will be victorious, which means that they
want to keep a tight rein on him. However, these forces account for 10-12
per cent of the electorate. By contrast, young Russia, Russia in its prime,
the active part of the Russian population hopes for progress in Russia, for
it not to return to the past, which would mean its Communist past, but,
rather, to rid itself of the complexes and problems brought about by - how
shall I put it - the era of Boris Yeltsin, as it is now known, although I
personally do not distinguish any periods by association with particular
individuals... 

*******

#9
From: IRASTRAUS@aol.com (Ira Straus)
Date: Sun, 26 Mar 2000
Subject: small is ugly (continued)

"Step outside the capital, and you will hear that the most missed attribute 
of Soviet power in provincial Russia are the limits Moscow used to set on the 
arbitrary rule of the local bosses. Putin plans to restore some federal 
controls and support local government, too, which might check the power of 
the heads of regions." (Gregory Freidin, Chairman of the Slavic Languages 
Department at Stanford, "In the Days of Reform Fatigue, the Policeman 
Cometh," Los Angeles Times March 26, 2000, JRL 4199)

I wonder if anyone in the West is systematically collecting this kind of 
information or trying to draw logical conclusions from it. The complaints 
about the evils of decentralization in Russia are mostly episodic, despite 
being massively repeated; the complaints about centralization are made 
systematically, built on a theoretical base and carried to the point of 
general systemic conclusions.

Russians are inevitably going to draw conclusions from their experience of 
the reality of disintegration and local bosses. If the West wants to 
contribute to how they draw their conclusions and wants to affect their 
intermediate deductions, it will have to be aware of their factual premises 
and be capable of starting its arguments from the same basic realities. 

*******

#10
BBC MONITORING
RUSSIAN TV OBSERVER SAYS PUTIN MAY BE A WORSE MILITARY DICTATOR THAN PINOCHET
Source: Centre TV, Moscow, in Russian 1935 gmt 26 Mar 00 

A commentary broadcast on an election-night TV show said Russian voters
have given president-elect Vladimir Putin a carte blanche. Observer Leonid
Mlechin said that there was no guarantee that if Putin became a military
dictator, Russia would achieve the same economic progress as Chile. It was
just as possible that the sort of economic collapse suffered by Pakistan
and Bangladesh might ensure. The following are excerpts from the commentary
broadcast by Russian Centre TV on 26th March 

[Centre TV observer Leonid Mlechin] The count continues and the main
surprises may still lie ahead, though some things have become quite
evident. Before the election, Vladimir Putin had such a colossal popularity
rating that it seemed he must win a landslide victory. The figures we have
from tonight's count are much more modest. There are two possible reactions
ensuing from that. 

The first is that Putin will conduct himself in a most cautious manner,
believing that he lacks mass support. The second possibility is that Putin
will hold a grudge against us, the electorate, for not having faith in him,
and that he will try to show that he is capable of taking control of the
country. 

A further observation is that our society is monstrously divided. Today
both [Gennadiy] Zyuganov and [Aman] Tuleyev received many more votes than
expected. And one more observation is that Moscow voted in a different way
from the rest of Russia. Many people in our city supported Grigoriy
Yavlinskiy who this evening seemed to have become the object of disdain of
many of my media colleagues: they said with great Schadenfreude that he
received much less of the vote [across Russia] than he might have... 

It is clear, though, that Putin will get the majority of the votes. One can
understand how this came about: the public want to see a new person in
charge. People are fed up with Boris Yeltsin and his entourage, and with
the people who opposed Yeltsin, too. 

The main word describing our lifestyle is impatience. We want to have it
all, and we want it right now. We do not believe that the science of
economics is governed by the same rigid and firm rules as physics or
chemistry. The sort of fantastic career rise experienced by Putin only
comes about during a time of revolution or palace coup. Something like that
has happened in Russia. The blasts which took place in Moscow and other
Russian cities last fall served only as catalysts in a process which
developed over a long period of time. People thirsted for change and wanted
to see the personification of such change. At last that person appeared [in
Putin]. 

But the support for Putin is largely on a psychological level. Many will be
saying tomorrow: what are you going to do next? I would like to draw your
attention to the fact that Putin is becoming or maybe has already become
the president without taking on himself any obligations. 

Putin has not put forward any real electoral platform. He received the
votes of the electorate as a credit advance. So he will not even have to
put his career on the line in the way his predecessor promised. 

This means that in the next four years Putin can do with the country
anything he likes. Even today many people must be asking what Russia will
look like four years from now. Regardless of whether Putin wins in the
first or second round, some people have been talking of the possibility of
[Putin becoming] a new Pinochet. 

How do we see him? As an enlightened despot who takes a firm grip on law
and order and under whom the economy flourishes? That is what happened in
Chile. 

But why is nobody seeing the possibility that things might take a different
turn. We might end up with a not very enlightened despot. We might end up
with strict law and order and a totally ruined economy. Why should we
necessarily end up with the Chilean version of dictatorship. It could turn
out like Bangladesh or Pakistan. Those countries also have military rulers
and they have totally ruined economies. 

Those two countries demonstrate the case that one should not overtighten
the bolts but rather put some oil on them and use the spanner softly in the
right direction. 

******

#11
BBC MONITORING
PUTIN MAGNANIMOUS IN VICTORY, LOOKS AT TASKS IN HAND
Russian Public TV, Moscow, in Russian 1700 gmt 26 Mar 00 
Ostankino Radio Mayak, Moscow, in Russian 0030 gmt 27 Mar 00 

At his first public appearance after he cast his vote in the presidential
election on 26th March, Vladimir Putin said that, though happy with its
results, which indicate he is on course for victory, he realized that the
"protest vote" by the supporters of Communist leader Gennadiy Zyuganov
represented a force to be reckoned with, whose legitimate concerns must not
be ignored. He said that there would be "no general curtsies" in the
formation of the new cabinet but singled out Zyuganov, as well as Moscow
mayor Yuriy Luzhkov and former Prime Minister Yevgeniy Primakov, for
possible roles in the new government. He promised no miracles but said
that, if elected, he would be honest in his assessment of the problems to
be tackled. He praised participation in the presidential election by
residents of Chechnya. Follows the text of a report by Russian Public TV on
26th March, augmented by a report on Russian Mayak radio on 27th March.
Subheadings have been inserted editorially. 

[Presenter] Over now to the election HQ of Vladimir Putin. It would appear
that Vladimir Putin, after an absence of many hours, has appeared in
public. Andrey, are you there? Yes, over to our correspondent Andrey Baturin. 

[Correspondent] Yes, the news conference with Vladimir Putin is beginning
right now. Here it is for you now. 

[Putin, in a sweater, to an inaudible question] I have asked the electorate
to come to the polls. We can now say that this has happened. This is what,
in my view, is most important. This brings satisfaction, but as for the
final result regarding the candidates, the fate of the elections, we shall
find this out a bit later. 

[Question from the floor, as are all questions hereinafter] Excuse me,
nevertheless, can I ask you to share with us your impressions, how do you
assess the preliminary results of the elections? 

[A] It seems to me that the specialists who forecast the results - to give
them their due - they are sort of close to the mark. Let us see what the
final results are, though. But it seems to me that what we saw on the pages
of serious publications reflects reality as it is. 

Elections in Chechnya a success, recognition of it being part of Russia 

[Q] [Name indistinct], Interfax. Vladimir Vladimirovich, tell me please,
according to the facts at your disposal, did the rebels manage to disrupt
the elections in Chechnya, what is the situation there now? 

[A] It is already clear that they did not succeed in doing this. This is
already certain. You know, I believe that for us - for everybody, for the
Chechen Republic and the rest of Russia - it was a matter of fundamental
importance that the residents of the Chechen Republic should have had the
opportunity to vote for the future president of Russia, and that they
should actually do this. And this really happened. 

One can only regret that, despite our frequent proposals, the foreign
observers did not actually go there. Even though, on the plus side is the
fact that - together with [Central Election Commission head] Aleksandr
Veshnyakov - representatives of international organizations did visit the
Chechen Republic, and acquainted themselves with the process of
preparations for the elections. This is a plus. 

In my view - I spoke of this earlier today, when I went to cast my vote at
the polling station, but I want to repeat it - I think it is important,
even from the practical point of view, that people, once they have voted
for their future president, they have the right to demand things from him,
not just to make requests, not to ask questions in the conditional mode,
but to demand, as the people who voted for him, to demand that he pay
particular attention to their republic. 

And I think that whoever is elected president of Russia - given the fact
that part of the residents of that republic voted for him - has specific
obligations towards this Russian territory. 

And finally, third, the very fact that residents of the republic voted
during this presidential race, during the elections for the Russian
president, shows that the overwhelming majority of the Chechen people
regard themselves, regard their republic as part of the Russian Federation.
This is a matter of fundamental importance, and it cannot fail to gladden
the heart. 

Communists force to be reckoned with, their legitimate concerns must not be
ignored 

[Confusion as all speak at once] 

[Q] Vladimir Vladimirovich, it was noticeable from early on that the
Communists won a significant proportion of the votes. What do you think
this means for Russia? 

[A] It means that there is a large number of the population of Russia who
are not happy with the current state of affairs. It means that the
so-called protest vote is very large in Russia. I want to draw your
attention to the fact that the Communists are achieving this level despite
the fact that, and let us be straight and honest here, they do not have
that many possibilities or media, electronic media all the more so. And
nevertheless such a large number regularly vote for them. This says that
the politics of the authorities should be more balanced, and should reflect
the realities of the processes under way in Russia, and should be directed
towards lifting the real standard of living of ordinary people. Ordinary
people should feel for themselves, in their everyday lives, the advantages
of the policies being pursued by the authorities. And then there will be no
need to struggle against the Communists as a party. We should not fight the
Communists, we should fight for people, for people who go and vote. And I
think this can be achieved. 

Victory in first round "greater moral responsibility" 

[Q] Vladimir Vladimirovich, is it important to you whether you win in the
first or second round? Is there, for example, any psychological difference? 

[A] There is absolutely no difference. It's all - I don't know, somebody's
dreaming it up and spinning it out. But basically, can you say now where
there has been a victory in the first round, in which country, who? I can't
remember any. If there is a victory in the first round, even if only by
half a per cent, I think this is a great mandate from the people for the
person who wins. But overall it makes little difference if it is the first
or second round. It's just that if it is the first round, I repeat, it
assigns an even greater moral responsibility. 

[Q] How will the government be formed? Will there be any changes in the
make-up of the government after today's election? 

[A] I think that question will be appropriate when the results of the
elections are known. For the time being we just don't know. 

Rested despite tension 

[Q] Vladimir Vladimirovich, just a simple human question. You are probably
tired today, or have you managed to have a rest, as was your intention? 

[A] Yes, I rested today. I rested as was planned. I went to the country. It
was really pleasant to talk to people. They're very nice people, open and
entirely without duplicity, real people. Working people with just one thing
on their mind, life today. Although of course with all of this they are
quite politically active and have a clear understanding of what is
happening in the country and feel pain over what is happening. But I went
riding with the chief of the farm and went to the bathhouse, so - 

[Q] What farm was that then? 

[A] Well, it's a farm. [Laughter] 

[Q] Is it near Moscow? 

[A] No, you'll give them hell later. They're not ready for it. I can handle
it, but they're not ready. Don't. 

No, it's not near Moscow. It's 120 km from Moscow. It's a small farm. There
are 370 farmers and 400 pensioners, it's a completely normal farm. And on
the way back I even managed to sleep in the helicopter, so I rested. I feel
that I rested. 

"No general curtsies" in formation of new government but Luzhkov, Primakov,
Zyuganov singled out 

[Moderator] Let's have two or three more questions and then - 

[All speak at once] 

[Q] Which of the presidential candidates - of the other candidates - can
expect to join the Cabinet of Ministers? For example, what can [Communist
leader Gennadiy] Zyuganov or [Yabloko leader Grigoriy] Yavlinskiy expect
from the executive? 

[A] You know, I don't think I have the right to undertake any individual
wilful actions. I shall have to think and look and talk to them and
understand whether they are ready to work within the programme which will
be proposed by the government. If any of them are ready, a place will be
found for them and they will be needed. If all the work will consist of
political rhetoric intended to put forward movements or parties or
themselves personally, we don't need these people for practical work. It's
something to talk about. Although I must say that I respect them all. 

But you know, I will say this: It is often said, and I hear it said about
myself, that I used the situation in the North Caucasus for my election
campaign. I don't want to monopolize the issue. I know what I did and I
don't want to do myself down. But I try to assess it entirely
appropriately. And I also know that had there not been a consolidation of
the whole of Russian society there would not have been the situation which
we can see today in the Caucasus. And this consolidation in society was
achieved not only thanks to my personal efforts, but thanks to the efforts
of a significant number of people who are visible on the country's
political stage and are respected by the people. 

I would include in this category [Fatherland - All Russia leader and former
Prime Minister] Yevgeniy Primakov, [Fatherland - All Russia leader and
Moscow mayor] Yuriy Luzhkov and Gennadiy Zyuganov. You can criticize them
however and for whatever you like, but they understand that this subject,
well let's be straight, I'll say it honestly, it gets on my nerves a bit,
you know? They did not once allow themselves to slip into taking a position
against the state. Not once, none of them. And I want to repeat that I
don't think I have the right to monopolize the issue. 

So who might be needed and how, that's another matter, but I repeat that
there will be no general curtsies. Everybody who will be invited to work in
the executive authorities must think alike, and must play for the same
team. It cannot be a team which is like a troika, where one is heading for
the water, one is backing up and the third is pawing the ground. 

If elected, promises no miracles but straight talking to overcome crisis 

[Q] You have a lot of support from the people, and this obviously means
great trust. People are expecting a miracle from you. Should we expect a
miracle? What will your first steps be if everything works out all right? 

[A] You know, every one of us, you and me, and every inhabitant of Japan,
and every inhabitant of Russia, has a right and a duty to dream. 

Well, perhaps no-one should pin their hopes on a miracle. In any case, I
have no right to say that miracles will start to occur tomorrow. This would
be incorrect, this would be a big mistake, this would do harm, because if
hopes for a miracle which will never occur tomorrow are instilled in
people, they will become disillusioned. I believe that the situation is
difficult in that the level of expectations is really very high. I feel
this during my trips around the country, around the country's regions.
True, people have become tired, they live through hard times and they are
anticipating changes for the better. But, of course, miracles don't occur. 

The question is how to behave and what to do in this situation, and whether
or not it is possible to do anything positive, so as to avoid the possible
disillusionment. 

Generally, is it possible to achieve this or not, is it possible to prevent
people from being disillusioned? 

I believe this can be done. But the question is how to do this. In my
opinion, there is only one way of doing it - to be honest. To expound, to
analyse the situation in which the country has found itself in a precise
and clear-cut manner. To speak openly and honestly about our understanding
of the ways out of the complicated situation in which the country has found
itself. Having said this, I will have to tell the people that I will do
this and that. Someone may disagree with this, someone may argue and
someone may support this, but, in any case, this should be an open stance. 

Well, several years later it will become clear whether or not the choice
was correct, and the population of the country will then be able to make
its own conclusion on whether the way for the country's development has
been correct or erroneous, what has been incorrect and what has been
materialized. 

It seems to me that with the question being formulated like this, where the
overwhelming majority of the country's population become, so to speak,
participants in this process, it seems to me that this will make it
possible to avoid the danger which is awaiting us - premature
disillusionment, or just disillusionment. If people understand what is
going on, this situation will never occur. 

Business as usual in his capacity as head of government 

[Moderator] The last question is from `AIF' [`Argumenty i Fakty'
newspaper]. You are welcome. 

[Q] `Argumenty i Fakty'. Vladimir Vladimirovich, first, what are your plans
for tomorrow? And if it turns out that you have won the election in the
first round, which problems are you going to solve as a matter of priority? 

[A] Well, the plans for tomorrow are routine. No matter what happens in the
country, there should be no vacuum of power or vacuum of management, even
for a second. Therefore, there will be a routine working day tomorrow -
whether this is the first or second round. No matter what happens, we will
hold a meeting with deputies to the chairman of the government at 1000
[0600 gmt], because life - [changes tack] we have a huge country with a
multi-million population, and we have no right to relax even for a second.
Well, we have the headquarters headed by Dmitriy Anatolyevich [Medvedev].
If the second round is to take place, let him continue his work. But the
government should work. 

And, apart from being a presidential candidate, I am also chairman of the
government, which is still functioning, and no-one has so far relieved me
of these duties. Therefore, we will work in a normal manner. 

If it becomes clear that the president has been elected and there will be
no second round, the first thing to think about is the formation of the
government. It means nominating candidates for the post of chairman of the
government and the beginning of consultations with the State Duma on the
issue. That's it. 

Happy about election campaign 

[Q] Vladimir Vladimirovich, were you excited to take part in the election? 

[A] You know, even in my worst nightmare I could not see myself [laughter]
- you shouldn't be laughing, I am saying this quite frankly - I could not
see myself taking part in an election. It was because it seems to me that
this is an absolutely shameless affair, or so it seemed to me until now,
since something must always be promised. Moreover, you should promise to do
more that you rivals do, so as to create a more successful image of
yourself. And I could never imagine that I would be promising something
that could never be implemented. I should say that the election campaign
and the way I managed to arrange it, relieved me of the need to mislead
huge masses of people. And now I am happy about this. And if it turns out
that all concerns have been left behind and there will be no second round,
I will consider myself a happy man. 

Thank you all very much. 

[Applause]. 

*******

#12
ANALYSIS-Russia's Putin still to show his true colours
By Timothy Heritage

MOSCOW, March 27 (Reuters) - Will the real Vladimir Putin please stand up! 

The former KGB agent won Russia's presidential election on Sunday without a
clear economic or political programme, largely thanks to his image as a
tough guy who has waged war against rebels in Chechnya and is ready to
crack down on corruption. 

Now the hard part begins. 

In the coming weeks and months, Putin will have to show his true colours as
he tackles the huge political, economic and military challenges that lie
ahead in his impoverished and demoralised country. 

No one is expecting miracles and Putin is promising none. 

``The question remains what does Mr Putin really want to do. He ran on no
platform in effect other than a strong state and stability,'' Charles
Blitzer, a London-based economist who used to work in Moscow, told Reuters
Television. 

``It's still an open question what he wants to do...My guess is nothing is
going to change very quickly.'' 

HUGE CHALLENGES 

The challenges Putin faces are immense. On the political front, there is
war in Chechnya, an opposition Communist Party still able to muster nearly
30 percent at the polls, crime and corruption are rampant and ordinary
people are demoralised. 

Russia is desperately in need of stability. Governments have come and gone
with alarming regularity in the past few years, some regional leaders have
become fiercely independent of the Kremlin and foreign policy has often
been criticised as weak. 

The economy is stronger than at any time since the rouble crashed in August
1998, but recovery remains fragile. Western investors say a small group of
businessmen -- the so-called ``oligarchs'' -- who have political influence
beyond their economic weight still impede reforms. 

Tax evasion deprives state coffers of vast amounts and the the
International Monetary Fund says structural reforms, such as a new law on
bankruptcies and a reduction of barter trade, are needed before it
unfreezes a $4.6 billion loan package. 

Putin has pledged commitment to democracy and market economic reforms, but
has not said how he will do it. 

Analysts expect some government changes, including appointment of a loyal
prime minister who is unlikely to challenge his authority. The defence,
interior and foreign ministers' posts could be reviewed but a major change
of direction is unlikely. 

Foreign policy is also unlikely to change dramatically, but is expected to
focus more on Russia's economic interests. 

``Much depends on what exactly he does in economics and foreign policy, and
much will become clearer now,'' said Yevgeny Volk of the Heritage
Foundation think-tank in Moscow. 

``Mr Putin will be more pragmatic. He will try to protect Russian national
interests, but he will refrain from rhetoric that would cause a
deterioration in relations with the West.'' 

PLATFORM TO LAUNCH REFORMS 

Putin gave few clues about his plans on Monday but made clear he expects a
long and hard struggle. 

``A lot of things that will lead to many controversies need to be done,''
he said. 

His absolute majority in Sunday's poll, making a second round runoff
unnecessary, gives him a solid platform to launch his reforms. 

But reformers have a scratchy record in Russia. Putin's predecessor, Boris
Yeltsin, found it difficult to push through reforms despite success at the
polls. 

Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms in the mid-1980s at first
raised high hopes among the population but eventually helped bring about
his downfall. 

``Putin is a level-headed man who is aware of his mission. One cannot envy
this mission,'' Gorbachev said. ``Much will depend on how Putin evaluates
the past, who he invites to join his team and what goals he sets.'' 

Another question mark over Putin is his lack of experience in public
office, although he was for several years a senior aide in Russia's second
city of St Petersburg. 

His 16 years as a KGB security police agent, including as a spy in
Communist East Germany, and the absence of a coherent programme also alarm
economists and political experts alike. 

Some people fear a return to strong-arm tactics to restrict dissent and
more restraints, overt or covert, on the media. 

WEST LOOKS ON ANXIOUSLY 

Western leaders will focus particularly on whether he errs on the side of
authoritarianism to push through reforms. 

U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said she could understand
Russians wanted order. ``But the question is whether it's order with a
small or a capital 'O','' she added. 

Western leaders will also watch him on Chechnya, hoping he will end a
military drive which they say has used indiscriminate force. But many
analysts say he will be unable to end the war fast and that it will long
remain a thorn in his side. 

``Chechnya will be a serious headache for Mr Putin for a long time,'' Volk
said. ``Problems will emerge in Chechnya that will cause economic problems
because they will have to spend a lot of money on the war and restoring the
economy there.'' 

******