February 9, 2000    
This Date's Issues: 4097 4098

Johnson's Russia List
#4097
9 February 2000
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Gorbachev Speaks in Switzerland on Putin.
2. Reuters: INTERVIEW-Russia changes to take a generation-IMF.(Michel Camdessus)
3. AP: Radio Liberty Reporter Feared Dead.
4. Moscow Times EDITORIAL: Come On, Putin, Show Us the Plan.
5. Newsweek: Arms Control, Behind the Scenes.
6. Interfax: DUMA DEFENSE COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN FAVORS START-2 RATIFICATION.
7. Interfax: RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE MEANT TO GUARANTEE NATIONAL INTERESTS - RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER.
8. Jerry Hough: Elections.
9. Interfax: WEST MUST SUPPORT RUSSIA'S EFFORTS AGAINST EXTREMISM - PUTIN.
10. RFE/RL Newsline: PUTIN: INTERNATIONAL MAN OF MYSTERY? 
11. The New York Times editorial: Russia's Empty Victory.
12. APN: The Central Election Commission chairman stated that the elections to the Russia's State Duma could have been partially forged.
13. smi.ru: "SEGODNYA" FOLLOWS UP ON RUMORS OF TAILORING THE CONSTITUTION TO SUIT PUTIN'S NEEDS.
14. smi.ru: ON THE U.S. "IRON LADY" AND GRIGORY YAVLINSKY.
15. Interfax - Vremya: WHAT PRESIDENT DO WE NEED? Brains and Uprightness Vs. Ideology. (poll)
16. Kommersant - Vlast: PUBLIC OPINION POLL REVEALS PEOPLE'S ATTITUDE TO PARTIES AND POLITICIANS.
17. AFP: Putin 'in denial' over Chechnya, may move on ABM revision: Albright.
18. Moscow Times: Oksana Yablokova, Child Death Rates Reach 60,000 in '99.] 

*******

#1
Gorbachev Speaks in Switzerland on Putin 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta
5 February 2000
[translation for personal use only]
Report by Irina Denisova: "M. Gorbachev Knows V. Putin as 
Intelligent and Serious Man Although He Could Also Vote 'Against Everyone'" 

Geneva has proved yet again that it is not only a 
diplomatic capital but a banking one too. The 14th 
International "Transition to a Market Economy" Conference has 
been held in Geneva, in which famous parliamentarians and businessmen 
from Russia, Switzerland, and France took part. 
State Duma Chairman Gennadiy Seleznev; Duma committee chairmen 
Aleksandr Shokhin and Aleksandr Zhukov; Andrey Shapovalyants, Viktor 
Gerashchenko, Aleksandr Pochinok, Oleg Morozov; Vladimir Petrovskiy, 
chairman of the "Regions of Russia" deputies' group and general 
director of the UN European department; and many famous leaders of 
Russian and European banks. 
The delegates were particularly interested by the debate on changes 
to the banking legislation of the EU countries and Switzerland and their 
influence on international financial cooperation, including the struggle 
against money-laundering. 
The Swiss press has long been discussing this topic without 
hesitating to present Russia as the main protagonist in illegal deals to 
launder "dirty" money. But Mr. Khuber [surname as 
transliterated] leader of the Swiss police department for combating 
money-laundering, evaded a direct question, failing to name a single 
Russian company or person, not to mention Russia's percentage compared to 
the other European countries in terms of money-laundering. 
Mikhail Gorbachev met with the conference participants. Finding 
time after the International Green Cross session, he urged the banking 
elite to support the unified Social-Democratic Party, which, it is 
believed, should unite 12 separate movements and act as a powerful 
reformed bloc with an updated personnel in four years' time at the next 
State Duma elections. In response to a question from hour correspondent 
about who he will support at the forthcoming presidential election in 
Russia, Mikhail Gorbachev replied: "I know Putin. He is an 
intelligent and serious man. But to elaborate my position I must see 
who he will rely on and how he will work with and what aims he will set. 
"I spent two years trying to persuade everyone and myself that 
the best choice for those four years was Yevgeniy Primakov. A serious 
and solid man on whom one could rely. He is well known in Russia and 
the West and that is what would have been needed. But you know 
yourselves what they did to Primakov, what primarily the mass media did 
to Primakov. he did not withstand the ordeal and here we must call 
things by their names. His knees gave way. I do not know now but so 
far I can see no one to vote for. Perhaps I shall vote 'against 
everyone.' We shall wait and see." 

*******

#2
INTERVIEW-Russia changes to take a generation-IMF
By Janet Guttsman

WASHINGTON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - It will take many years to transform Russia's 
economy, but much has been achieved and the switch to a market economy is now 
irreversible, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. 

Michel Camdessus, in one of his final interviews before he leaves the fund 
next week, told Reuters that all players had miscalculated the scale of 
Russia's problems and the time it would take to transform its economy. 

``It was a gigantic task, it will be continued, but it will have to be the 
task of a generation,'' Camdessus said. 

``Along with the Russians and the rest of the world, we certainly 
miscalculated how difficult it had to be to change 70 years of 
Marxist-Leninism, ending up with Brezhnevism, which was one of the most 
perverse forms of it, with all the elements of corruption, of lack of 
maintenance and the concentration in the military industrial apparatus.'' 

The IMF loaned Russia more than $20 billion in the eight years following the 
collapse of the Soviet Union, promising time and again that an end to 
Russia's painful and protracted economic slump was just around the corner. 

But it took a painful debt default and a massive slump in the value of the 
Russian currency in 1998 to catapult the economy toward growth. Russia's 
state statistics committee says it expects 1999 data will show growth of 3.6 
percent, almost reversing the 4.6 percent fall recorded in 1998. 

The IMF, angry at sluggish reforms, halted disbursements from its latest loan 
last month and it says no more money will be forthcoming until Russia has 
completed crucial structural reforms, including boosting cash payments for 
utilities and bringing in new bankruptcy laws. 

But the IMF also admits Russia has done better than expected on macroeconomic 
targets agreed with the fund, and Camdessus said some changes were 
irreversible in Russia, the world's largest country by area and the largest 
single borrower from the IMF. 

``The Russians took too much for granted...and they had unsurmountable 
problems in getting solid consent to changes from an old Communist, 
Brezhnevist Duma (parliament),'' he said. 

He added: ``But I am happy that the thing which was the basic purpose of our 
task is there, namely to introduce the basis and make irreversible the 
orientation to a market, and to make irreversible the orientation toward 
democracy and integration with the rest of the world.'' 

Camdessus told a news conference earlier that the IMF had repeatedly been 
frustrated at Russia's half-hearted implementation of economic reform 
programmes. 

``We were disappointed by the lack of support, or the insufficient support, 
of the State Duma, by the delays in adopting the indispensable legislation 
for creating a level playing field (for investors),'' he said. 

``But that was not a reason for us to say 'basta ya' (enough already),'' he 
added, lapsing into Spanish for effect. 

******

#3
Radio Liberty Reporter Feared Dead
February 8, 2000
By ANNA DOLGOV

MOSCOW (AP) - A Radio Liberty reporter is missing - and his colleagues fear 
he may be dead, another casualty of the war in Chechnya. 

Russian military officials claim to have turned over Andrei Babitsky to 
Chechen rebels nearly a week ago, but he has not been heard from since. 
Chechen commanders say they don't have him and never did. 

``If Andrei was with Chechen field commanders, he would have certainly found 
a telephone,'' Radio Liberty's Moscow bureau chief, Savic Shuster, said 
Tuesday. ``If he is alive and keeping silent, there is a reason for that. Or 
he is not alive.'' The private Radio Liberty is funded by U.S. Congress. 

Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Rushailo said Tuesday that Babitsky was 
alive and well, according to the ITAR-Tass news agency. It said he did not 
elaborate. 

Russian authorities have tried to tightly control information about the 
Chechnya offensive that began in September, mindful of the public outrage 
that marked the 1994-96 Chechnya war. 

Babitsky had angered the government by questioning its reports, and some 
Russian officials even accused him of fighting with the rebels. 

Babitsky, 35, last called home on Jan. 15. Ten days later, the Russian 
government said he had been arrested but would be released soon. Then, the 
government announced that Babitsky was turned over last Thursday to the 
rebels, at his request, in exchange for three Russian prisoners of war. 

The swap raised fears for his safety, as the Russians said they no longer 
bore any responsibility for Babitsky's life. 

``It could not even be characterized as barbarity, but as savagery,'' Genri 
Reznik, a lawyer for U.S.-sponsored Radio Liberty, told a news conference 
Tuesday. 

Suspicion is also mounting about whether the swap ever took place at all. 

``I do not believe my husband is alive and well,'' Babitsky's wife, Lyudmila, 
said after the Russians announced the exchange. 

Presidential aide Sergei Yastrzhembsky showed reporters what he said was 
Babitsky's written statement agreeing to the exchange. 

Babitsky's colleagues called the document an ``unprofessional fabrication.'' 

``If it had been done professionally, Babitsky would have read on camera the 
statement that he has supposedly written,'' Shuster said. 

The official reason for Babitsky's arrest was that he did not have a 
government permit to report in Chechnya. Other Western reporters have been 
detained for the same reason, but quickly released. Accreditation is only 
issued to Russia's pro-government media, which back the official view of the 
war. 

Babitsky has worked for Radio Liberty since the early 1990s and reported on 
the earlier Chechnya war. He is not the only reporter to question the 
government, but he has reported primarily from rebel-controlled areas. 

The government heavily criticized him after he reported Russian losses in a 
rebel attack in December on Minutka Square in Grozny. The Russian military 
initially denied its troops entered the square, although several journalists, 
including an Associated Press reporter, counted the bodies of more than 100 
soldiers. 

Babitsky also gave the rebels a lot of coverage at a time when the government 
was urging reporters not to put ``terrorists'' on the air. 

At Radio Liberty's request, leaders in Chechnya's separatist government have 
been checking with field commanders about Babitsky - but to no avail, Shuster 
said. The station also has been unable to reach the Russian soldiers 
supposedly exchanged for Babitsky. 

``It is now clear that the rather mystical exchange ... is a sleight of hand 
meant to conceal an obviously unlawful action - or, more likely, a heinous 
crime,'' Boris Pustintsev, head of the civil rights group Citizens' Watch, 
wrote in an article published Tuesday in the Moscow Times daily. 

Pustintsev also suggested the case illustrated the heavy-handed methods of 
acting President Vladimir Putin, a former KGB officer. Putin is seen as a 
shoo-in in Russia's March 26 presidential election, although he remains a 
largely enigmatic figure. 

If Putin ``was from the start aware of this operation - and we can smell his 
KGB methods from miles away - then there's no doubt what life under this 
guarantor of rights will be like,'' Pustintsev wrote. 

Putin, meanwhile, insisted Tuesday he would protect press freedoms. 

``I am deeply convinced that there will be no development, no future at all 
in the country if we suppress civil rights and freedom of press,'' Putin said 
in an interview on ORT television. 

*******

#4
Moscow Times
February 9, 2000 
EDITORIAL: Come On, Putin, Show Us the Plan 

We are still waiting to hear Vladimir Putin's thoughts on some of the matters 
that trouble us - particularly, how Putin feels about the Interior Ministry's 
decision to sell an irritating journalist into Chechen slavery, or worse. 

As we see it, so far either a) acting President Putin approves of what has 
happened to Radio Liberty's Andrei Babitsky; b) Putin does not think it 
worthy of comment; or c) Putin disapproves - but is incapable of condemning 
it, or unwilling to. 

Take your pick. None offers a very heartening commentary on our 
president-in-waiting's prospects. 

For that matter, we would still like to know what Putin thinks about the 
Interior Ministry's thuggish intimidation of another journalist, Alexander 
Khinshtein of Moskovsky Komsomolets; and we are all ears as to how Putin 
feels about the Swiss arrest warrant out on one of Putin's current officials 
and former bosses, Pavel Borodin. 

We have asked such questions before, without a clear reply. But on Tuesday, 
Putin did provide an indirect answer of sorts - a kind of commentary on his 
willingness to participate in a democratic give-and-take. 

The acting president was shown on ORT television speaking to university 
students about a program of action he is developing. As Putin explains, he 
does not want this program to become "an object of attack," and so chooses 
not to share the details until after the March 26 election. 

"As soon as it is made public, it will be gnawed at and torn to pieces," 
Putin explains. 

So Putin chooses not to make it public. He apparently enjoys that luxury. He 
is riding high in the polls, and every other serious contender has stepped 
aside. At this juncture, March 26 seems sure to pit Putin against Communist 
Gennady Zyuganov for an easy first-round win, while also-rans Yury Skuratov, 
Grigory Yavlinsky and Vladimir Zhirinovsky look on. 

Given his all-but-certain election, we can't help thinking Putin could be a 
bit more generous and share his program. After all, it is being produced at a 
think tank headed by a deputy Cabinet minister and funded largely by 
state-owned institutions like Gazprom, Transneft and UES - in other words, by 
taxpayers' rubles. 

Of course, there would be criticism and discussion - that's the sort of 
exchange of ideas and arguments that is at the heart of democracy. Putin may 
be the shoe-in president, but in theory, he is not above the democratic 
process, and it would do him no dishonor to bow to it a bit. 

- Matt Bivens 

********

#5
Newsweek
February 14, 2000
Periscope
EXCLUSIVE 
Arms Control, Behind the Scenes 

After her first meeting with Russia's Acting President Vladimir Putin last 
week, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was upbeat. One reason: there's 
been more progress in behind-the-scenes talks on arms-control issues than 
either side has publicly acknowledged. NEWSWEEK has learned that in 
mid-January Under Secretary John Holum handed his Russian Foreign Ministry 
counterpart Yuri Kapralov two documents: a proposed modification of the 1972 
ABM treaty and a draft of a START III nuclear-arms-reduction treaty. Both 
were "informal" proposals, based on what one source called the "quite 
detailed discussions" that the two countries began last August.
By offering these ideas to Moscow now, sources say, President Clinton hopes 
to jump-start formal negotiations after Russia's March presidential election. 
The administration's proposed ABM-treaty amendments are minimal, allowing 
only bare-bones defenses against North Korean missiles. Clinton, sources say, 
has decided to leave to his successor the problem of negotiating the more 
extensive defenses needed against Iran and Iraq. On START III, the 
administration is sticking to the 2,500 strategic-weapons cap Clinton and 
Boris Yeltsin agreed to in the mid-1990s. The Russians have said they want to 
lower the cap to 1,500. Washington may give on START III in exchange for 
Russian ABM concessions. "Putin didn't throw [the proposals] off the table," 
says one U.S. official. "How much of that is just his style, we'll have to 
see."

*******

#6
DUMA DEFENSE COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN FAVORS START-2 RATIFICATION

MOSCOW. Feb 8 (Interfax) - Chairman of the State Duma Defense
Committee Andrei Nikolayev (of the People's Deputy group) has said he
favors the ratification of START-2. However, "there should be no
hurrying to ratify the treaty," he told Interfax on Tuesday.
Acting President Vladimir Putin and the government share the
opinion, Nikolayev said. "The country's leadership is not rushing to
ratify the treaty because there are issued Putin brought up during his
meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and these
questions require further consideration," he said.
Nikolayev reported plans for setting up a working group in the Duma
to consider the political and military-technical aspects of
ratification's consequences.
The document should be studied in light of the 1972 ABM treaty and
the U.S. intentions to make certain amendments in it with which Russia
does not at this point agree, he said, noting that the United States had
actually refused to support the convention on the general and complete
ban on nuclear arms testing. "This also requires serious thought and the
acting president also talked about this with Albright," he said.
"There is the question of the actual state of the Russian strategic
nuclear force," which is directly linked with the tasks facing Russia of
reforming its army and developing its armed forces, Nikolayev said. "We
have to analyze how prepared we are for the unconditional implementation
of START-2, if it is ratified," he said.
"Such a combination of problems does not permit us to hurry with
the ratification of this document today," Nikolayev said. "In this case
we should not try to benefit fleeting political interests, but rather
Russia's security interests," he said.
START-2 ratification will be on the agenda for the Duma's spring
session, Nikolayev noted.

*******

#7
RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE MEANT TO GUARANTEE NATIONAL INTERESTS -
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER

MOSCOW. Feb 8 (Interfax) - Russia's new military doctrine is meant
to guarantee Russia's national interests and security and is not meant
to be threatening to any other country, Russian Foreign Minister Igor
Ivanov has said.
"It reflects today's international realities," Ivanov told the
press on Tuesday.
"Russia does not threaten anybody," he said. It simply has to take
into account the developments in and around Yugoslavia, NATO's adoption
of a new military doctrine, the enlargement of that alliance from 16 to
19 countries and "several other threats that have cropped up in the new
situation," the foreign minister said.
On the subject of START-2, Ivanov said that its ratification "in is
our interests." At a meeting in Cologne, the presidents of Russia and
the United States agreed to hold consultations" on the entire agenda of
the 1972 ABM treaty and the future START-3, he noted. "The possible
parameters" of the latter document were at issue, he added.
Experts are still working at this stage, only consultations are
being held, and there have been no official talks on this subject,
Ivanov said.
The possible ratification of START-3 is directly linked with the
ratification of START-2, and "the preservation of the ABM treaty in its
present form is a mandatory condition for the continuation of strategic
arms limitation," he said.
Asked about the seizure of a Russian tanker in the Persian Gulf,
Ivanov referred to the problem as "technical." There is "no scandal," he
said, and the Russian stance "was perfectly clear from the very start."
"We support the observation of U.N. Security Council resolution [on
sanctions against Iraq] in all its dimensions," he said.
"There are appropriate bodies that will decide on the origin of the
fuel oil found on board the Russian tanker, and if the Security Council
resolution was violated the receipts from the sale of the confiscated
oil will be directed to the U.N. fund," he said.
Thus from the very start the commercial aspects of the case "were
set aside," Ivanov said. On the Russian side the talks to settle the
conflict were conducted primarily "to guarantee the security of our
people."

******

#8
Date: Tue, 8 Feb 2000 
From: "Jerry F. Hough" <jhough@duke.edu>
Subject: Elections

Dear David:

Rightly or wrongly, I never took these elections seriously and 
did not any polling this time but decided to wait until afterwards so 
that the elections do not cut into the response rate. As such, I have no
data to add to your debate on fraud.

I certainly have my suspicions when the heart of the Yeltsin 
support in the Duma--Zhirinovksy and the reformers--both unexpectedly get 
just above the 5 percent minimum. However, I would have guessed that 
this kind of few percent "adjustment" is more likely than truly 
large-scale fraud. Poll data has to be used with care in Russia. A 
lot of non-voters say they will vote, and they tend to distribute to 
known quantities like Primakov. The Communist voters don't hesitate to 
identify now, and the large numbers who blow off pollsters during 
elections may go in other directions. 

But in general it seems to me that the talk about fraud misses 
the real point. Elections are about choice. The New Hampshire voter 
may have preferred Dole or Gephardt, but did not have that choice. 
The essential assumption in democracy is that the choices emerge fairly 
autonomously in response to public moods and forces. This is relatively 
true in the US, but even here choices can be skewed. Every industrial 
country has comprehensive health care and favors it by 80-90 percent. 
The structure of campaign finance and nature of the media has had an 
impact. Candidates must include the insurance companies in their plans, 
and this drives up the cost so much that the plans really are too expensive.
But still when economic hard times come and health costs really get too 
much, some candidate will buck the insurance companies and win.

In Russia, as in many countries, the choice is far more 
restricted. In three Duma and two presidential elections, there never 
has been an opposition governor running. There has never been a broad 
left-center or right-center party like the Democrats or Republicans. 
When someone wants to finance such a party, they are told that they must 
pay their tax-writeoffs or will get no loans. The media absolutely 
distorts the opposition. The Korzhakov memoirs are never cited. He 
says that the Communists and everyone else was told that they would not 
be allowed to come to power. The public was told that a Communist 
victory would lead to civil war--that is, that Yeltsin forces would not 
let them come to power. Surely the Yeltsin-Communist "deal" that 
brought Putin to "power," the Communists to a strong position in the Duma, 
and brought Belarus into the Union must have had this character too.

Most important, the system of non-monetary, state-directed 
distribution of goods allows local towns, factories, and farms to be 
threatened with the loss of electricity, oil, gas, "loans" if they vote 
wrong. The Ivanovo governor in the 1993 referendum spoke all the time 
that Yeltsin was the source of cotton, etc., and that if people voted against 
his social policy, Ivanovo would be cut off. The economic policy is 
more painful for Ivanovo than anyone else, but they still voted 
against. Only the black earth area with a surplus of agricultural 
production can afford to vote opposition.

As a result, fraud is not all that necessary. The local 
collective farm chairmen and local small town mayors are told to pass the 
word and to meet the quota. In 1996, the geographers were, in fact, 
told to calculate how much each region would be expected to vote for Yeltsin 
based on earlier votes, their predictions were closely met, and they were 
thanked on television on election night. (Peter Craumer is the person to 
write about this.) If the population doesn't get the message, I assume
that they adjust the count, but my guess is that they usually don't have 
to do so by much.

What has been maddening about so many political scientists 
writing about democracy in Russia is that the structuring of choice has 
not been included in their definition of democracy. One assumes that this 
year is so raw that even the worst offenders will come around. If 
Borodin's boss joins him on the Russian-Belarus Council after the 
"election," I hope that this will add to the cynicism--that is, realism.

It has been very sad that so many young political scientists and 
economists have just mouthed the orthodoxy of Chubais and/or the 
"democrats." Russia is one of the great case studies of the character 
of early democracy and early markets and the reasons that institutions do 
not work as they are supposed to. Those who have teethed on it for ten
years have a wealth of knowledge. As someone who had a good predictive 
record from 1978 to 1988 but an absolutely terrible one in 1990-1991, I 
would say that one can survive bad predictions. There is a difference
between scholarship and astrology (prediction). If young scholars begin
looking at Russia in comparative perspective--that is, spend a lot of time
researching and teaching about the experience of other early democracies,
early federalisms, and early markets, they will find that Russia will 
look differently and that they will be able to discuss Russia without 
either apologetics or mea culpas. 

p.s.
Andrei Sogrin suggests that turnout may fall beneath 50 
percent. It certainly would be under 50 percent in a normal election. 
But half the population lives in cities of under 80,000. My prediction 
is that officials will get the turnout one way or another. There's a 
lot of people getting a lot of subsidies at work, in housing, in 
utilities. A quiet threat that if you haven't voted, don't come to us 
will do wonders, and a stern "vote for Putin" will leave them wondering 
if the ballot is really secret. 

*****

#9
WEST MUST SUPPORT RUSSIA'S EFFORTS AGAINST EXTREMISM - PUTIN

MOSCOW. Feb 8 (Interfax) - The West should be interested in
supporting Russia's struggle against terrorism and extremism, acting
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said.
"It is not just a question of Chechnya," Putin said during a Monday
evening interview with Russia's ORT television. Chechnya is only a part
of extremist plans for dividing the world, noting the armed conflict in
Tajikistan in the 1990s, last year's invasion of Kyrgyzstan by extremist
groups and attacks by Chechen militants on Dagestan.
Attempts on the lives of the Georgian and Uzbek Presidents Eduard
Shevardnadze and Islam Karimov were organized by Chechen extremists,
Putin charged, adding that support for Russia's efforts against
extremism is also in the West's interests.
Putin confirmed Russia's alliance with Belarus and preparedness to
defend it if the need arises. Protecting Belarus is protecting Russia's
own national interests, he said.
Asked who Russia's allies around the world are, Putin named among
them the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, many
European nations and "everyone who shares the idea of a multi-polar
world."

******

#10
RFE/RL Newsline, 2/8/00

PUTIN: INTERNATIONAL MAN OF MYSTERY? "Novoe vremya" reported
in its February issue (no. 5) that acting President Putin
remains a mystery for both Russian and foreign political
analysts. It argues that Putin is best understood not in
terms of his professional biography since he was a "nobody"
in the KGB. Rather, Putin's intellectual framework is closest
to former Soviet leader Yurii Andropov. The publication cites
the striking similarity between an article by Andropov in the
journal "Kommunist" near the "beginning of his rule" and
Putin's more recent explanation of the "credo proposed to
Russia by the pro-Kremlin movement Unity." Andropov's article
appealed for the Soviet people "to try to look around and try
to understand where we are," while Putin suggested that
Unity's basic aim is to achieve Russia's "national revival."
JAC

******

#11
The New York Times
February 8, 2000
Editorial
Russia's Empty Victory

The year may be 2000, but Grozny could easily be mistaken for the smoking 
rubble of a European city circa 1945. Russian forces, using the blunt weapons 
of World War II, have shelled and bombed the Chechen capital into an 
uninhabitable hell, a city so devastated that it will most likely be 
abandoned by the Chechens who long called it home and by the Russians who now 
cruelly declare that it has been "liberated." For a world that has watched 
the Russian military offensive with revulsion, the Russian tricolor flag that 
now flies over Grozny seems a symbol of shame. 

It did not have to be this way. When Chechen fighters raided the neighboring 
Russian region of Dagestan last summer, Moscow justifiably used military 
force to repel them and talked of carving out a buffer zone within Chechnya. 
After bombings last fall in Moscow and other cities for which Russian 
authorities blamed Chechen separatists, Russian security forces set out to 
hunt down suspected terrorists, a reasonable response. The Kremlin at one 
point said it would work with moderate Chechen leaders to strengthen the 
uneasy peace that followed the 1994-1996 conflict between the rebels and 
Russia, a peace that gave Chechnya near-autonomy. 

But it is clear that preventing Chechen terrorism was never the Kremlin's 
primary purpose, and these moderate approaches were soon overtaken by a war 
strategy. The central aims were to avenge Russia's military defeat in 1996 
and to lift the political fortunes of Vladimir Putin, the prime minister who 
became acting president when Boris Yeltsin resigned on Dec. 31. Both goals 
have been achieved, at a heavy cost in blood and principle. 

Russia's generals have demonstrated that a scorched-earth campaign can drive 
guerrillas into the hills, demolish a sizable city and kill thousands of 
civilians trapped in the combat zone. More than 200,000 Chechens who were 
lucky enough to survive have fled Chechnya. Many of Russia's sons were also 
sacrificed. Since October more than 1,000 Russian soldiers have lost their 
lives in Chechnya, and almost 3,400 have been wounded there. 

Mr. Putin, for his part, has exploited public support for the war to make 
himself the leading contender in presidential elections next month. Few 
Russian politicians have summoned the courage to question the carnage in 
Chechnya and the damage it has done to democratic values in Russia. Secretary 
of State Madeleine Albright was right to challenge Mr. Putin on the war 
during her recent visit to Moscow. An end to combat in Grozny should not 
bring an end to American criticism. 

The best that can now be hoped is that Russia will let international aid 
organizations provide humanitarian relief to Chechen civilians, and will make 
good on its 1996 promise to help rebuild the shattered ethnic enclave. Moscow 
will be fortunate if the war does not produce retaliatory terrorist attacks. 
Many Russians seem to think the capture of Grozny is cause for celebration. 
Mr. Putin does his countrymen no favor by encouraging that misguided 
reaction. 

*******

#12
APN
8 February, 2000, 15:13
The Central Election Commission chairman stated that the elections to the 
Russia's State Duma could have been partially forged
Chairman of the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Russia Alexander 
Vyeshnyakov stated that «results of the December election to the State Duma 
should be checked additionally in several regions of Russia due to possible 
violations.» He also said that the CEC commission is going to check 
Tatarstan, Stavropol region, St.Petersburg and Saratov region.

So Veshnyakov practically partially agreed with Gennady Zyuganov's (chairman 
of the Communist Party of Russia's Central Committee) statement about the 
mechanism of forging existing in several Russia's regions. Zyuganov's and 
Vyeshnyakov's lists of these regions are different, though. Both lists 
include two subjects of the Federation - republic of Tatarstan and Saratov 
region.

*****

#13
smi.ru
17:28 07.02.00
Government
"SEGODNYA" FOLLOWS UP ON RUMORS OF TAILORING THE CONSTITUTION TO SUIT PUTIN'S 
NEEDS 
Quoting certain unnamed "sources close to the Kremlin Administration", the 
"Segodnya" paper follows up on the rumor that draft amendments of the 
Constitution have been prepared in the Administration, prolonging the Russian 
President's term of office up to seven years. That is, the maximum time a 
single person can remain President will be 2 times 7 = 14 years. The 
"sources" attribute the authorship of the idea to Vladimir Putin personally. 
The paper says that the comments on this story given in the apparatus of the 
head of state are "cautious": essentially, there are no comments at all. 
"Regarding the Constitution, the Acting President has not in a single speech 
called it imperfect or spoken in favor of amending it", a Presidential 
Administration representative told the paper's reporter. "Segodnya" bases its 
conclusion about the possibility of lobbying the hypothetical constitutional 
amendments through both parliamentary chambers on the structure of state 
power being developed by Putin, who prefers to promote obscure people "from 
the shadows", pushing political "heavyweights" aside. An eloquent example of 
this cited by the paper is the Duma, which has entered "an era of total 
unknowns getting to the political Olympus".

Comment: To sum up, the paper has failed to think up anything new in a whole 
week, but the paranoid insistence with which "Segodnya" speaks of possible 
constitutional amendments prolonging the President's term cannot fail to put 
one on one's guard. Especially as, this time, the paper has not given a 
single fact to support its guesses, not even a single "indirect indication". 
Nevertheless, the idea itself of structuring a country's Principal Law to fit 
that country's Number One is quite appropriate to the logic of any power 
structure. Yeltsin tailored the 1993 Constitution to suit his own needs - 
what's to prevent Putin from trying to do the same? Unfortunately, all this 
is nothing but guesswork so far. But, for some reason, the paper has stumbled 
over it. Or is it just the first act of a "ballet" staged by the 
"choreographers" from Media-Most? 
"Segodnya": A Term Has Been Measured off for Putin 
SMI.RU: The President Must Be President for a Long Time?

******

#14
smi.ru
17:25 07.02.00
Elections
ON THE U.S. "IRON LADY" AND GRIGORY YAVLINSKY 
The "Noviye Izvestiya" paper comments on the meeting between Madeleine 
Allbright and the leader of the "Yabloko" ("Apple") party, Grigory Yavlinsky. 
For some reason, the material is published as late as Saturday, February 5, 
although the meeting itself took place many days ago. The conclusion made by 
the paper is rather unexpected: "Washington no longer regards either the 
Communists or the "New Rightists" as a force really influencing Russian 
politics. It is to 'Yabloko' that the U.S. assigns this part".

Comment: Yavlinsky is the only first-rank politician who conscientiously 
sacrificed his ratings on the eve of the Duma election and spoke against the 
war in Chechnya. He never tired of explaining his position on the issue, the 
position of a politician guided solely by the interests of the State, one who 
wanted to stop terrorism, but by constitutional means only: "a war can be won 
by force, but peace cannot be established by force". "Yabloko" lost a 
considerable part of its voters over this, but it remained true to its 
opinion. After the election, one could hear a lot of voices expressing 
solidarity with Yavlinsky. But that was after the election. The Americans 
seem to believe, and not without good reason either, that the voice of 
Yavlinsky, always articulating ideas opposed to the status quo, will be heard 
for a long time to come - and this will be certainly useful for the U.S. in 
playing out its political combinations.
"Yabloko": Debate between Grigory Yavlinsky and Anatoly Chubais on Chechnya

******

#15
Interfax - Vremya No. 6
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
WHAT PRESIDENT DO WE NEED?
Brains and Uprightness Vs. Ideology 

The future Russian president must above all have brains and
intellect, say 66% of the Russian people, or 6% more than before
the 1996 presidential elections, the National Public Opinion
Research Centre (VTsIOM) told Interfax. 
The respondents were offered five variants of answers. 
As many as 63% chose honesty and uprightness (57% in 1996),
48% chose political experience (49%), 38% chose strong will
(34%), and 37% chose economic experience (38%).
A total of 31% of the respondents think the president must
have the talent of listening to others and accepting compromises
(30%), while 29% want him to have the leader traits (30%), and
20% think he should be a cultured, educated person.
Nineteen percent think selflessness is a vital trait for a
president (18%), while 17% opted for a balanced, tranquil nature
(20%), 8% think ideological convictions are vital (13%), and 5%
want the president to be charming (7%).
One percent chose other qualities (1%) and 2% could not
answer this question at all (5%).
It would be interesting to compare these answers with the
people's choice of party candidates to the State Duma in December
1999. It turned out that the supporters of the Union of Right
Forces (SPS) mostly opt for brains, intellect, honesty and
uprightness, while only a few of Zhirinovsky bloc's electorate
think the same. 
Yabloko supporters think political experience is vital,
while the SPS voters disagree. Strong will was the choice of
Zhirinovsky bloc's electorate, while few Fatherland-All Russia
(OVR) voters think the same.
The OVR voters think economic experience is the most
important trait, while the Zhirinovsky electorate think nothing
of it. The ability to listen to others and accept compromises is
supported by mostly the SPS, and only by a few OVR, voters. The
Zhirinovsky electorate want the president to be the leader, while
the KPRF voters don't need such president. Instead, they want a
selfless president, with which few SPS agree. 
A balanced and tranquil nature is valued by mostly the
Yabloko electorate, while the KPRF and Zhirinovsky's voters do
not regard it as a must. On the other hand, the Zhirinovsky and
KPRF electorate uphold ideological convictions, while the Yabloko
voters don't think they are vital. They think personal charm is
very important, but the Zhirinovsky and KPRF voters disagree. 
These are the results of a representative poll of 1,600
adult citizens of the Russian Federation on January 24, as
compared to a similar VTsIOM poll held before the 1996
presidential elections. The probable statistic error does not
exceed 4%.

...But Stop the Chechen War

Most Russians (56%) want the future president to end the
Chechen war and this is what they would vote for during the
elections, VTsIOM told Interfax following a poll of 1,600
respondents on January 21-24. The respondents, aged over 18, live
in 83 settlements in 31 regions of Russia. The probable statistic
error does not exceed 4%.
Speaking about other tasks of the future president, 55% of
the respondents said he must regain the status of a great power
for Russia. He must also ensure law and order (54%) and a fair
distribution of incomes in the interests of all (43%), repay the
money which the people lost as a result of the reforms (38%), and
strengthen the role of the state in the economy (37%).
The president must carry on the reforms, but pay more
attention to the social protection of the population, say 35% of
the respondents. Twelve percent think he must keep Russia on the
reform track.
Ten percent of the respondents think the president must
pursue a policy designed to ensure the reunification of Russia
with the republics of the former Soviet Union, while 8% think he
must work for rapprochement with the West, and 2% suggested other
priority tasks for the future president. 
The respondents could choose several variants from the list,
and hence the total sum exceed 100%.

*******

#16
Kommersant - Vlast No. 4
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
PUBLIC OPINION POLL REVEALS PEOPLE'S ATTITUDE TO PARTIES AND POLITICIANS 

I. How did your attitude to politicians change after the
conflict in the State Duma? (%)
---------------------------------------------
Gennady Sergei 
Zyuganov Kiriyenko 
---------------------------------------------
It slightly improved 7 8.4 
It improved considerably 3.1 2.3 
It slightly worsened 7.1 11.9 
It worsened considerably 6.5 9.7 
It did not change 56.6 48.5 
I'm not interested 
in this 8.4 8.4 
I don't know 11.3 10.8 
---------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------
Yevgeny Grigory 
Primakov Yavlinsky 
------------------------------------------------
It slightly improved 6.4 5.7 
It improved considerably 2.6 2.1 
It slightly worsened 14.3 12.6 
It worsened considerably 9.1 11.5 
It did not change 51.5 48.1 
I'm not interested 
in this 6.7 9.3 
I don't know 9.4 10.7 
------------------------------------------------

II. How do you perceive the refusal by the OVR, Yabloko and
the Union of Right Forces factions to participate in the voting
on the election of the State Duma chairman? (%)
1. Deputies' routine work --- 25.2%
2. Shameful flight by 
loser parties and 
movements --- 32.1% 
3. Fair protest against 
collusion of the KPRF 
and Unity --- 14.7% 
4. I'm not interested in this --- 10.6% 
5. I don't know --- 17.4% 
The poll was carried out by ROMIR on January 22-23 and
involved 1,500 respondents in 94 populated settlements in 40
constituent members of the Russian Federation. 

******

#17
Putin 'in denial' over Chechnya, may move on ABM revision: Albright

WASHINGTON, Feb 8 (AFP) - 
Acting Russian President Vladimir Putin is "in denial" over Chechnya, but has 
however shown signs he might agree to amendments to the key ABM defense 
treaty, US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said Tuesday.

Testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee concerning the 
proposed fiscal 2001 foreign operations budget, Albright said that during her 
recent meeting with Putin in Moscow, she had found him to be "a mixed bag."

"There are certain parts about him that I see as being very pragmatic and 
problem-solving and other cases (in which) I think I found him in denial," 
she said. "Chechnya is one of those cases."

Albright's three-hour meeting with Putin on February 2 was the first such 
encounter between the acting president and a senior US official since Putin 
took office, replacing Boris Yeltsin, on New Year's Eve.

The United States has expressed deep concerns over Russia's ongoing offensive 
in the breakaway province of Chechnya since the campaign began last fall. It 
has condemned the loss of life and suffering caused to civilian populations 
and has urged Moscow to enter into a dialogue with Chechen leaders.

At the same time, Washington has stressed that it respects Russian 
sovereignty over Chechnya and understands Moscow's concerns about terrorism. 

The Russian government has blamed Chechen terrorists for a series of deadly 
apartment building explosions last year.

But Albright told the lawmakers that she, along with the other members of 
President Bill Clinton's administration, believed the onslaught against 
Chechnya was not the right way to tackle the problem, which had its roots in 
the Chechens' fierce desire for independence.

"I think that the Russians have decided for their own reasons that they have 
to take Chechnya -- from their perspective, liberate it," Albright said, 
adding "I don't agree with that ... They see it all in terms of terrorism, 
which it is not."

She added that she believed the Russians, faced with continuing heavy 
fighting and escalating casualties among their troops, would eventually move 
to a position where a dialogue with the Chechen leadership might be possible, 
but not in the near future.

"The war will go on," she said, rejecting Russian claims that their capture 
of the Chechen capital Grozny late last week would bring a quick end to the 
fighting.

"I think ultimately they (the Russians) see a political dialogue -- but not 
at any pace that we're looking at, at their own pace," Albright said.

On possible amendments to the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, which 
Washington has proposed in order to allow for the creation of a National 
Missile Defense system, Albright said that although Putin had expressed 
opposition to the proposal that the treaty could be amended, he had not 
categorically rejected the idea.

"I did not find him in a total 'Nyet' mode," she said, using the Russian word 
for "No."

The United States is interested in creating a missile defense system in order 
to counter the threat from long-range missiles which it believes could be 
fired by so-called 'rogue states', but Russia has been strongly opposed.

Albright said Putin did not deny the existence of the 'rogue state' threat 
and she believed he understood that there "needed to be a way to deal with 
it."

*******

#18
Moscow Times
February 9, 2000 
Child Death Rates Reach 60,000 in '99 
By Oksana Yablokova
Staff Writer

According to pediatricians, nearly 60,000 Russian children died last year, 
the combined result of high rates of infant mortality, birth defects and 
accidents. 

The number could have been much lower, doctors say, if children had timely 
access to proper medical care. 

Even though the mortality rate among Russians age 17 and younger is growing 
less dramatically than that of the country's adult population, facts like the 
1999 statistics are reason for concern, said Professor Alexander Baranov, 
head of the Russian Pediatrician's Union, which met this week in Moscow for 
its sixth annual congress. 

"For Russia, the problem [of the high number of children's deaths] is 
especially acute, because we have a sharp decline in the overall population 
that makes the life of each child more valuable than it is in other 
countries, like China, for example," Baranov said Monday. 

With deaths outnumbering births and immigration to Russia decreasing, the 
country's already shrinking population took its largest-ever post-Soviet 
plunge in 1999, dropping by 0.49 percent or 716,900. 

Baranov said that of the total number of children's deaths, infant mortality 
- death that occurs during the first year of life - accounts for some 30 
percent; accidents, including outdoor injuries and poisoning, account for 
another 30 percent. The remaining 40 percent, he said, include a number of 
causes ranging from teenage suicide and drug abuse to illnesses, 
misdiagnoses, medical negligence and murder. 

Statistics also vary from region to region, with more deaths registered in 
the North Caucasus region and the remote Siberian regions of Altai and Tuva, 
Baranov said. 

Nikolai Vaganov, chief doctor at Russia's biggest pediatric medical center, 
the Republican Children's Hospital located in Moscow, said prenatal disease, 
birth defects and accidents top the list of causes of children's mortality in 
Russia. 

"Those are the three main causes weakening our country's population 
potential," said Vaganov, who together with some 2,000 other pediatricians 
from throughout Russia attended this week's four-day congress, dedicated this 
year to examining emergency care for children. 

Vaganov said the number of infants who die in the first weeks of life is 
relatively high in Russia because fewer women have access to prenatal care 
here than in the West. 

The number of infants and older children dying from birth defects could also 
be lowered if adequate treatment was made available in cities across Russia 
and not only in Moscow. 

Thousands of Russian parents are forced to travel with their sick children to 
the capital city, which is often the only place in the country where advanced 
treatment for birth defects can be found, he added. 

Medical treatment - including even the most expensive and sophisticated 
surgical procedures - remain free in Russia, but waiting lines can last 
months and years, and children often die before their turn arrives. 

"Every year in Russia, 6,500 babies are born with heart defects, most of them 
requiring surgery," Vaganov said. "Meanwhile, last year, only some 300 
children actually underwent surgery." 

Another leading cause of deaths, accidents, typically occur in children over 
5, the age when many children begin being left by themselves, Vaganov said. 

Baranov said the number of children who die at home without receiving medical 
care has doubled over the past five years, adding that such deaths occur when 
doctors make bad diagnoses or fail to insist upon hospitalization, thinking 
their young patients' symptoms are not sufficiently serious. 

The fact that parents often avoid calling for medical help - mistaking 
serious illnesses for simple colds - also contributes to the problem, Baranov 
said. 

Flyura Akhmerova, who traveled to the congress from Naberezhniye Chelny in 
Tatarstan, where she has been treating children for more than 45 years, said 
the worst problem she and her colleagues face in their work is the lack of 
proper diagnostic equipment. 

"Modern equipment is basically all we need to be able to treat children and 
feel confident that we are doing everything right," Akhmerova said. 

******

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