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CDI Library > Johnson's Russia List

Johnson's Russia List
 

 

January 26, 2000    
This Date's Issues: 4068 4069 4070

 

Johnson's Russia List
#4069
26 January 2000
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. Moscow Times: Oksana Yablokova, Population Takes Biggest Plunge Yet.
2. Obschaya Gazeta: Dmitry DOKUCHAYEV, ECONOMY PUTIN'S TOUCHSTONE.
3. the eXile: Edward Limonov, PUTIN AND ZHIRINOVSKY.
4. Obshchaya Gazeta: Nikolai Zhuravlev, IN EXPECTATION OF A TYRANT.
5. Moscow Times: Yulia Latynina, Duma Politics As Simple as Buying Stock.
6. The Times (UK): Alice Lagnado, Russians try to bar rebels' escape route.
7. Interfax: MOSCOW SAYS 1,173 RUSSIAN SOLDIERS KILLED IN DAGESTAN, CHECHNYA.
8. Interfax: MOSCOW SAYS OVER 10,000 MILITANTS KILLED IN NORTH CAUCASUS.
9. The Independent (UK): Patrick Cockburn, Moscow bombers 'were not Chechens' 
10. Reuters: Central Asia heads look to Russia for stability.
11. Ekho Moskvy radio: Interview with Communist Party leader  Gennadiy Zyuganov.]

******

#1
Moscow Times
January 26, 2000 
Population Takes Biggest Plunge Yet 
By Oksana Yablokova
Staff Writer

Russia's shrinking population took its largest post-Soviet drop in 1999, with 
decreasing immigration coming on top of a surplus of deaths over births. 

The official population is now 145.6 million, down by 0.49 percent or 716,900 
people during the first 11 months of 1999 compared to the same period in 
1998. 

The figures were reported Tuesday by Interfax, which cited the Russian 
Statistics Agency. 

According to the report, besides extraordinarily high death rates and a low 
birth rate, decreasing immigration and an aging population were behind the 
latest phase in Russia's health and demographic crisis. 

A total of 1,117,000 Russians were born from January through November of 
1999, against 1,953,000 deaths, while during the same period in 1998, 
1,179,900 people were born as opposed to 1,815,100 deaths. 

Such statistics are usually calculated using information from birth and death 
registration across Russia. 

Immigration to Russia, mainly from the Commonwealth of Independent States 
countries, slowed over the past year. The flow of immigrants slid from 
478,600 people during the first 11 months of 1998 to 341,500 people during 
the same period of 1999. 

The drop in the first 11 months of 1999 of 716,900 people, or 0.49 percent, 
was almost double the decrease of the same period in 1998 of 365,600 people. 

The statistics agency said Russia's population was 148 million in 1990. It 
fell 0.02 percent in 1992, 0.2 percent in 1993, 0.04 percent in 1994, 0.2 
percent in 1995 and 0.3 percent in 1996, 1997 and 1998. 

According to all estimates performed by local and Western experts, Russia's 
population is likely to continue to decline in the future, which may have 
serious consequences for Russia's economy and position in the world. 

"Russia is on the verge of a demographic crisis because we don't have very 
many children being born," Valentin Pokrovsky, the head of the Russian 
Academy of Medical Sciences, said in an interview with The Moscow Times 
earlier this month. 

"If this trend does not change in 15 to 20 years, it will be very difficult 
for the country, because for each working person, there will be one or two 
people who cannot work," he said. 

Experts have argued about the exact combination of reasons for the decline, 
but most point to Russia's high rate of alcohol consumption, especially among 
men, who lag far behind women in life expectancy. In one 1993 survey, 80 
percent of Russian men said they drank alcohol, and other studies have shown 
that average consumption for both sexes is 400 grams per day, or three 
bottles of vodka a week. 

Russia has an astonishingly high number of deaths from accidental alcohol 
poisoning, with 35,000 compared to some 300 a year in the United States, 
which has almost twice the population and a fair number of heavy drinkers as 
well. Heavy smoking and a fatty diet also contribute to high rates of heart 
disease. 

Other experts point to "ecocide": the poisoning of the air, land and water by 
the Soviet authorities, and to the collapse of the Soviet-era health care 
system. Death rates from injuries suffered in auto accidents, for instance, 
are said to be several times higher than in European countries. 

Some researchers have even suggested that stress and hopelessness play a role 
in early death. Although the dislocations from the fall of communism are 
often cited, life expectancy for men has been falling since 1964. 

The falling population will strain the country's ability just to maintain 
economic output at its current level, Georgetown University demographer 
Murray Feshbach warned in a recent article. Others have also estimated that 
Russia's economic ranking and geopolitical standing will continue to fall as 
its health crisis continues. 

******

#2
Obschaya Gazeta, No. 3
January 2000
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
ECONOMY PUTIN'S TOUCHSTONE
By Dmitry DOKUCHAYEV

The first stage of the propaganda campaign for turning 
Vladimir Putin into the "father of the nation" which coincided 
with the parliamentary elections was held, as is known, under 
the slogan of "Putin is a conqueror of Chechnya." The second 
stage, coinciding with the president elections, will most 
probably be held under the slogan of "Putin is a great 
economist who constantly thinks about the good of the people." 
The main thing that people wait from the government is the 
implementation of clear-cut steps in the economic sphere.
However, in the course of the first stage, while Vladimir Putin 
was just the country's Prime Minister, he seemed to have 
avoided touching upon any financial and economic issues. 
It can be said that the economy lived its own life and its 
main manager also lived on his own. However, the situation 
changed radically after Putin turned from simply the Prime 
Minister into the acting President. The second stage of the 
propaganda campaign has now begun and almost every day is full 
of statements and measures linked with the economy. 
Putin places on the government's Internet site an article:
"Russia On the Threshold of the Millennium" (see Daily Review 
of January 5, 2000, part II) where he formulates economic 
goals...
He appoints as his first deputy not an experienced manager or a 
general in charge of the emergency situations but Mikhail 
Kasyanov, a representative of the financial bloc of the 
government. He announces the coming increase of pensions and 
wages in the government-financed sphere. He speaks for the 
support of the domestic industry. He approves of the initiative 
of the Central Bank for the obligatory 100 per cent sale of 
exporters' hard currency receipts. 
However, unlike numerous parties, movements and public 
figures, the economy somehow is in no hurry to come under 
Putin's flags. Moreover, quite an alarming situation is 
developing in the financial and credit sphere. 
Contrary to encouraging reports of the government about 
the extremely successful results of the year 1999 (the growth 
of the GDP, the collection of taxes above the plan, etc.), the 
economy responded by way of a sharp fall of the rouble early in 
January and the ensuing price growth. Numerous soothing 
statements by our financial experts Kasyanov, Geraschenko and 
Christenko which followed failed to change the situation 
radically: the US dollar rate and consumer prices had taken 
over a new psychological height and once again affected the 
population's incomes. 
The main reason for this is the need for the government in 
the first quarter of 2000 to pay off 3 billion US dollars of 
foreign debt. Actually this money cannot be taken from anywhere:
due to the Chechen campaign, international lending institutions 
have assumed a noticeably cooler attitude towards Russia and 
will not help us in the near future. The Central Bank's gold 
and hard currency reserves are not large (12.7 billion US 
dollars). The Central Bank's resources are simply insufficient 
to support the rouble and honour its foreign debt obligations. 
That is why the US dollar (followed by consumer prices) began 
to grow without encountering any resistance. 
The government, in order to somehow patch financial holes 
which have been formed has serious intentions to introduce a 
100 per cent obligatory sale of exporters' hard currency 
receipts instead of the current 75 per cent sale. Experts doubt 
the economic expediency of this measure: exporters will simply 
hide more resolutely their US dollar receipts. 
Evidently, it is not for nothing that Putin assigned the 
first role in the current government to finance minister 
Kasyanov. His main generally recognised talent is to hold 
negotiations with international financial institutions. Putin 
hopes that his first deputy will quickly alleviate the debt 
knot if not disentangle it altogether. Aware of the unrealistic 
nature of this task, Kasyanov "to be on the safe side" has 
already stated that in the first quarter of this year this will 
be impossible even technically. 
Today the acting President like a knight from a fairy tale 
has three roads lying ahead of him. The first one is linked 
with the comprehensive strengthening of the role of the state 
in the economy and the approval of interference of power 
structures in financial processes. This position may at first 
be welcomed by the masses who have grown tired of the heap of 
economic troubles.
But potentially this may lead to the elementary removal of 
market mechanisms with all the ensuing consequences: the 
appearance of the commodity shortage, the restriction of the US 
dollar circulation and the declared rouble exchange rate. 
The second road leads to more radical reforms. No doubt, 
our market needs reformation in many directions. However, a 
considerable political will is required to follow this road.
Apart from this, Putin lacks an efficient team capable of 
coping with this task. Much is said about the potential 
elevation of Chubais and Kiriyenko. However, they have already 
been at the peak of power and failed to achieve success, to put 
it mildly.
There is no guarantee that the new attempt, if it is granted, 
will be more successful. 
Finally, the third way is not to make sharp movements and 
engage only in current economic problems and hope that 
everything will be settled on its own. Precisely the third way, 
in the opinion of most government and near government experts 
at the present moment remains the most realistic one for Putin 
and his team. Actually, this is how his government has 
functioned lately.
This means that we are still doomed to the slow drift 
towards the worsening economic and financial situation. In this 
connection, one should recall the year 1998 when this slow 
drift turned into the powerful August collapse. It is 
understandable that Putin is not an expert in the financial and 
economic sphere.
But this does not relieve him of the duty to clearly formulate 
his priorities in this field before the country. 

*******

#3
From: "Editor" <exile.editor@matrix.ru>
Subject: PUTIN AND ZHIRINOVSKY
Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2000 

PUTIN AND ZHIRINOVSKY
By Edward Limonov
The eXile
January 19, 2000


As presidential elections are approaching in Russia, foreign journalists
are deeply digging past life of Putin Vladimir. Some details are
interesting and revealing. Like for example almost immediate failure of
young Putin in Bonn. In 1975 graduated from Leningrad's University law
school twenty-three years old Volodya was employed by KGB. His first
assignment was to Bonn, then capital of West German state. Putin went there
undercovered as supposedly journalist of Russian news agency TASS. Unmasked
by Germans as a spy, Putin was evacuated to East Germany. It is worth to
explain that such a failure have had in those years an enormous negative
impact on life of unfortunate agent. That failure made of Putin
"neviezdnoi"--in other words from now on Putin was forever known for
western intelligence services as a Russian spy, KGB officer. So it was a
dead end of agent's career, it was no sense in sending him to work abroad,
except to some fraternal countries of socialist bloc.

Another Vladimir, Zhirinovsky, have had a similar flop from beginning of
his career in 1969. Graduated from Institute of Eastern Languages
(traditionally patronized by KGB), Zhirinovsky went to Turkey to practice
his language abilities and was arrested, as he tried to convert Turkish
workers to communist faith. That is a lot of similarities in biographies of
those two man of same generation. (Zhirinovsky was born in 1946, Putin was
born in 1952.) In 1975 just from the beginning unlucky Putin was forever
placed into category of losers. In following years Vladimir Putin have had
a slow motion life of bureaucrat, paper-worker in Leipzig and Dresden.
His insignificance was ironically underlined when after 13 years in service
Major Putin have received a bronze medal from East German Ministry of
Internal Affairs. Taken out of sport context, bronze medal sounds like a
bad joke when placed in context of Ministry of Interior. 

In the West, where letters "KGB" were always surrounded by some mystical
horror, Putin's appointment to highest place of power in Russia was met
with fear. For Russians it is rather enigmatic event that fearful one.

Two years after receiving ironical present of East Germans Putin left KGB.
In 1990 he is in Leningrad, employed as helper to rector of Leningrad
University. Putin helps in "international affairs". So insignificant, so
small that job, even for a bronze medallist. But in May 1990, Mr. Sobchak
is elected Chairman of Soviet of Leningrad. Actually from that very moment
Sobchak becomes a master of Leningrad. In 1970-75, when Putin was a student
at Leningrad University, Sobchak taught him a law. In 1990 Sobchak placed
his ancient pupil as his own advisor. 

According to Spanish newspaper "Vanguardia" (just published week ago)
exactly in 1990 Putin was accused of financial crime by Leningrad's Soviet,
exactly an institution which had a Sobchak as a chairman. Putin was
involved in operation of purchase in the West of a food supplies for
Leningrad. The foreign currency dollars were paid by Leningrad government,
but food never came. We don't know how Sobchak have saved his advisor from
prison, but Putin survived. (It is most likely that Putin acted on behalf
of Sobchak, who later spend few years in Paris, fleeing an accusation of
corruption.) When in June 1991 Sobchak was elected mayor of Leningrad,
Putin was appointed as a Chief of Committee for Foreign Affairs of Mayor. 

Zhirinovsky's life from 1969 was as dull as Putin's life after 1975.
Working as law-consultant at "Mir" publishing house, Zhirinovsky was seated
in the same tiny room with other employees. Surrounded by rubbish heaps and
garages, publishing house "Mir" was located behind Rizhsky Vokzal. Place
for losers, no future place. (In 1994, writing a book "Limonov Against
Zhirinovsky", I have visited place; it is awful.) After twenty years of
that "gallery", in 1989 Zhirinovsky made his first bold social step: he
presented his candidature to elections for publishing house director. He
got only 5% of votes. In March 1990 Zhirinovsky founded LDPR together with
his roommate in "Mir", Stanislav Zhebrowsky. As a chairman of a Liberal
Democratic Party, Zhirinovsky participated in presidential elections in
1991 (it is no doubt for now that he worked for and was paid on behalf of
Yeltsin's rival, Nikolai Ryzhkov). That very year Zhirinovsky becomes known
nation-wide. Thus both men went to compete for power same year, blessed for
adventurers and losers, in 1990. Lot of a scam came to the surface in
Russia that year. In difference from screaming, public, obscene
Zhirinovsky, Putin is the knight of bureaucracy and dim corridors. He is
bureaucrat par excellence. He was practically out of sight of public until
July 25, 1998, when by ukaz of Yeltsin he was appointed the head of the FSB.

Now, about his face. Supposed mystery of Putin is no mystery at all. He is
simply reserved and silent as a small employee should be. He had learned to
be reserved and silent because he obtained a habit of subordinate man:
shuttup and listen, when colonel, general, Sobchak, Yeltsin talks. Putin's
politics of bureaucrat proved to be much more successful than Zhirinovsky's
public screams. 

*******

#4
Obshchaya Gazeta,No. 3
January 2000
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
IN EXPECTATION OF A TYRANT
By Nikolai ZHURAVLEV

Vladimir Putin's coming onto the scene has made the 
subjects of "order" and "tough rule" ever more topical. They 
are debated as heatedly and in such detail that the impression 
is that any substantive talk would inevitably lead to the 
discussion of the dictatorship issue.
If expectations of an impending tyranny had been 
associated solely with Putin's probable presidency (he is a 
former KGB man and he unleashed the war in Chechnya), this 
would have looked like an anti-Putin propaganda campaign.
However, firstly, not only Putin's opponents, but his 
supporters, too, promise "order" and a "strong president." 
Secondly, both supporters and opponents base their expectations 
on the nature of "social order" rather than the acting 
president's personal qualities. This means that Putin's 
dictatorial potential is not the case, as what people really 
want is "another Stalin." Nothing can be done about this.
People are dead tired of democratic anarchy and long for tough 
rule. Perhaps, they are not right, perhaps they do not deserve 
freedom, but their will is as good as law.
The situation is as bad as it can be. Thank God, there is 
no dictatorship yet, but it has been sanctified by the people's 
will in advance. This is most dubious from the point of view of 
social advantage, and rather doubtful from that of science. 
Surely, our domestic "catastrophists" have no reasons 
whatsoever to interpret the Russian people's natural striving 
for order as their thirst for tyranny. This is nothing more 
than intellectual speculation refuted by any serious public 
opinion poll.
First of all, sociologists offer respondents the following 
question: what is more important for them today: (a) order, 
even at the expense of some encroachment on democratic 
principles and restriction of citizens' personal freedoms, or 
(b) democracy, even if consistent observance of democratic 
principles affords some freedom to destructive and criminal 
elements? It is easy to guess what the answer was. Seventy-two 
percent of our citizens chose order, even if their personal 
freedoms are somewhat encroached upon. Thirteen percent of 
Russians preferred democracy to order, and the rest could not 
decide which is better.
It would seem everything's clear: people are, no doubt, 
longing for order. At the same time, the absolute majority of 
the respondents take the order or democracy choice for granted, 
not noticing how incorrect this opposition is.
However, sociologists are smart people, and they ask control 
questions, such as: "What is order, in your opinion?" and "What 
is democracy, in your opinion?" And suddenly it transpires, 
that for the Russian citizen order means the same thing as for 
any normal person, even for one who is not familiar with the 
chaos of Russian life. It means "political and economic 
stability" (45 percent), "strict observance of laws" (35 
percent), and then "putting an end to the country's pillage." 
"Limitation of democratic rights and freedoms" was favoured by 
3 percent of the respondents, while "order" was interpreted as 
a slogan "opening the road to dictatorship" by a mere 1 percent 
of the polled.
In other words, our citizens do not at all think that it 
is necessary to abolish freedom of speech and conscience, limit 
voting rights and ban rallies and demonstrations in order to 
seize a corrupt figure by the hand, punish thieves, pay wages 
on time and enhance discipline. The only thing needed for this 
is strict observance of laws. What is specifically Russian 
about all these notions? Where is the social order for Pinochet?
Democracy is also interpreted by Russians in an adequate 
way. This is, above all, "strict legality" (29 percent), "order 
and stability" (28 percent), and only for some Russians this is 
"empty talk" (10 percent). The conclusion is rather 
interesting: it turns out that democracy is the mother of 
order. Not at all of anarchy, as one would expect after 
listening to all the talk about all-people's longing for "tough 
rule."
In my opinion, the myth about the social order for a 
dictatorship is of a purely elitarian origin. For some sections 
of the elite a tough authoritarian regime presents an 
opportunity to realise their qualities and skills unrequired 
under the democratic regime. For others, this myth is the 
embodiment of their personal fear of order as the triumph of 
legality. They made their fortunes and careers in the years of 
lawlessness, therefore the thought about elementary order 
horrifies them.
The motives of both of these groups are different, and the 
interests - opposite, but the attempt to present their personal 
strivings and phobias as the people's will carry the same 
danger. It would at least be reckless to insistently, with 
masochistic self-abandonment, instill in people the idea that 
they want nothing more but to live in slavery. It would be even 
more dangerous to try and make the future president believe 
that. Our leaders are not at all inclined to restrict 
themselves in any way, so it would be sheer madness to 
encourage them in their bad habits.

******

#5
Moscow Times
January 26, 2000 
INSIDE RUSSIA: Duma Politics As Simple as Buying Stock 
By Yulia Latynina 

A few days ago, one of my friends drove into bankruptcy a company belonging 
to another friend of mine. As I am tender and delicate by nature I 
sympathized with both friends, and asked them what could be behind such an 
ugly situation. 

"Wouldn't it have been simpler to pay out on the stocks?" I asked. 

"Why pay if you don't have to?" came the answer. This peculiarity of Russian 
business - don't pay the minority shareholder whenever possible - made its 
debut in the county's big politics. It could be seen at work in the transfer 
of property in Russia's most famous stock market, the State Duma. 

The scandal has two main components. The first is well known: One faction, 
having the Duma's controlling stock, decided to name a general director on 
its own - Gennady Seleznyov. The minority holders considered this to be 
undemocratic. 

The second component of the scandal is more vague and has to do with an 
unsuccessful attempt to scratch Grigory Yavlinsky off the People's Deputy 
roster. It used to be, in the Duma, that the various committee chairmanships 
were handed out among parties. Single-mandate candidates simply never got 
organized enough to show up when the pie was being cut. 

But this year, the single-mandate deputies almost instantly formed the 
People's Deputy party. This new group holds a stock packet of 80 people and 
immediately demanded proportional quota in the Duma committees. In response, 
Yavlinsky said the committees should be shared by all parties. 

Naturally, that answer got a pretty halfhearted response from the People's 
Deputy boys. The further we go, the more we see. Yabloko got the 
international committee. Yabloko wished to see its member Vladimir Lukin at 
its helm, which didn't suit the majority of the Duma at all. Union of Right 
Forces, or SPS, got the committee on information politics. But SPS wanted 
Irina Khakamada at the head of that committee, which also didn't suit the 
majority in the Duma at all. All of these backstairs squabbles resulted in an 
unexpected regrouping of power: Unity went off and united with the Communists 
and the People's Deputy - instead of uniting with SPS. Instead, SPS ended up 
with Yabloko and Fatherland, all at the same time. 

Of course, a union of Unity with the Communists is a pretty unappetizing 
sight. The Duma's main stockholders have become a living example of that 
stock truism we were talking about earlier: "Why share when you don't have 
to?" 

What's even funnier is watching the cheated minority present a clearly 
commercial dissolution as an ideological argument. Desperate squabbles over 
which committee will be in charge and what finances it will control are two 
things that can never be joined together. And, from a purely ideological 
point of view, SPS, with the left-of-center Fatherland, are even more absurd 
than the Communist union with the absolute ideological vacuum of Unity. 

We can mourn the Duma's rebirth as a stock market, and know that money 
invested in this or that political party is money that gets you a big stock 
packet in the Duma itself. But the jilted stockholders who call themselves 
the democratic opposition can bet they'll get nothing more than a 
condescending smile. 

Yulia Latynina writes for Segodnya. 

******

#6
The Times (UK)
26 January 2000
[for personal use only]
Russians try to bar rebels' escape route 
Alice Lagnado slipped into war-torn Chechnya disguised as one of the many 
refugees. She is now in hiding at a village in the southern part of the 
republic surrounded by Moscow's troops 

RUSSIAN soldiers moved to within yards of this village in southern Chechnya 
yesterday in an attempt to cut off the lowlands from the mountains. 
Russian commanders believe that they will take Grozny soon and that the 
rebels will then flee to high ground. To cut them off, in the past few days 
Russian forces have stationed themselves at several villages on the edge of 
the mountains. 

Armoured personnel carriers are visible only ten yards from the outskirts of 
this village. Three unkempt soldiers entered it yesterday in search of water, 
which is in short supply among the Russians. Villagers say that the Russian 
conscripts often ask for food, which they give gladly. They feel sorry for 
the teenagers, who are not here out of choice and are not aware of why they 
are fighting. 

The village, on the edge of Chechnya's southern mountains, cannot be named 
for security reasons. Even a short trip in a car is hazardous, since my host 
knows about half of the village's 6,000 inhabitants and word has reached the 
Russians that I am hiding here. Reaching other villages is difficult because 
Russian troops have set up checkpoints between them. 

The village hospital was bombed by Russian jets last October. All that 
remains are a few half-destroyed brick walls and the metal gates. A hamlet 
near the village was bombed this month, but residents were given a warning 
and fled beforehand. No one expects the soldiers surrounding this village to 
attack it, but nothing is certain. Bribing soldiers with vodka is a bad idea, 
since villagers fear that drunken conscripts will go on rampages. 

If this were a village in Britain, the gangs of young men in leather jackets 
hanging out in the streets might be landing drunken punches at each other by 
now, but, since no one drinks, the young men are quiet. 

Children play on toboggans on the light snow and old men in skullcaps wander 
about aimlessly. People in Chechnya know how to be bored: after all, this is 
the second time that they have endured a war in the past decade. There are 
few women on the streets and those who are to be seen are carrying pails of 
water from taps at springs dotted around the village. According to tradition, 
men fetch water only if they are driving specially equipped lorries. 

About 30 men from this village are fighting in Grozny or in the mountains and 
a hundred more are defending rebel positions in Chechnya. Most use 
sub-machine guns that before the war cost $500 (about £310) but are now only 
$100. Some men buy them with their savings or with the help of Chechen 
businessmen. Often Chechens buy guns from Russian conscripts. 

Sources here say that Chechen fighters entered the Staraya Sunzha district of 
Grozny on Monday in an attempt to push out Russian troops stationed there. 
Claims of fighting next to the presidential palace in Grozny are ridiculed. 
Russian soldiers are thought to remain on Grozny's outskirts, where they have 
been bogged down for months. The rebels believe that, unless the Russians 
take Grozny within the next fortnight, the city will never fall to them. 

Despite the war, it is still possible to buy food, water, petrol and even 
clothing in this village. Many homes have wood stoves and generators to 
supply electricity. Residents who cannot fight because they have no money to 
buy weapons sit at home with nothing to do but drink tea and hope for 
visitors. 

Asyet, a Chechen woman of 38, commanded a unit of 20 rebels during the last 
war, but she lost a foot and this time had to stay at home, frustrated and 
bored. "I would give both feet with pleasure to fight again," she told me. 
"It's very difficult to wait, and easier to be with the guys." 

Originally from Grozny, Asyet now feeds hungry Russian conscripts. "They are 
begging us to feed them," she said. "One told me they had one egg and two 
pieces of bread between two of them. Another asked for wood, so we gave him 
that, too." 

Asyet was given her first sub-machinegun by President Maskhadov when she got 
fed up with cooking and cleaning for rebels in the last war. She does not 
expect the Russians troops now stationed around her village to do anything 
except plant mines in the forest. "They don't have the guts to do anything 
else," she said. 

*******

#7
MOSCOW SAYS 1,173 RUSSIAN SOLDIERS KILLED IN DAGESTAN, CHECHNYA

MOSCOW. Jan 25 (Interfax) - Russia's Defense and Interior
Ministries told Interfax on Tuesday 1,173 Russian servicemen have died
in Dagestan and Chechnya since last August, 3,487 have been wounded and
53 listed as missing.
The Defense Ministry itself has lost 820 soldiers killed and 2,235
wounded in the Dagestan-Chechnya campaign, a senior military official
has said.
Col. Gen. Valery Manilov, first deputy chief of Russia's general
staff, told Interfax 118 of the Defense Ministry servicemen who were
killed had died in Dagestan since August 2, when Chechnya-based
militants invaded the region, and that 281 have been wounded and 32 have
been listed as missing.
Since October 1, when Russia began its operation against Chechnya,
702 Defense Ministry servicemen have been killed and 1,954 have been
wounded, he said.
He also said 776 soldiers and officers had returned to their units
after hospital treatment.
At the same time, 317 members of Interior Ministry forces,
including 46 officers, have died, 1,166 have been wounded and 21 have
been listed as missing, Lt. Gen. Stanislav Kavun, deputy commander of
the Interior Ministry forces, told Interfax.
Kavun said that about 700 servicemen had returned to their units
after receiving medical treatment.
The Interior Ministry told Interfax 36 police officers have been
killed and 86 wounded in Chechnya.

*******

#8
MOSCOW SAYS OVER 10,000 MILITANTS KILLED IN NORTH CAUCASUS

MOSCOW. Jan 25 (Interfax) - More than 10,000 militants have been
killed since Russia launched its armed action in the North Caucasus
after Muslim fighters based in Chechnya invaded Dagestan last summer,
Russian military sources said on Tuesday.
More than 2,500 militants were killed in Dagestan, 5,000 died
during the "second phase of the anti-terrorist operation" in Chechnya
and more than 2,500 have been killed during the current "third phase,"
Col. Gen. Valery Manilov, first deputy chief of the Russian general
staff, told Interfax.

*******

#9
The Independent (UK)
26 January 2000
[for personal use only]
Moscow bombers 'were not Chechens' 
By Patrick Cockburn in Moscow 

No single ethnic Chechen is among those suspected of the bombings that killed 
300 people in Russia last year and helped to ignite the war in Chechnya, the 
Russian secret service said yesterday 

General Alexander Zdanovich, the spokesman for the FSB secret service, said, 
however, that the 14 suspected bombers were trained in camps in Chechnya. 

Immediately after bombs exploded in Buinaksk, Moscow and Volgodonsk last 
September the security forces issued photofit pictures, which gave the clear 
impression that the bombers were Chechens. 

The bombs, which killed and wounded civilians, terrified ordinary Russians 
and ensured maximum popular support for the invasion of Chechnya.General 
Zdanovich told the Interfax news agency that investigators now knew "the 
entire crime mechanism and those who carried out the crime". He said nine of 
the 14 suspects, all of whom are in hiding in Chechnya, were wanted by 
Interpol. 

But the FSB, the successor organisation to the KGB, has yet to explain who 
was behind the bombings. The Russian media has increasingly voiced suspicions 
that they were planted at the behest of somebody in the political élite who 
wanted a pretext to launch the war. 

The immediate background to the bombings and the invasion was the political 
crisis that the Kremlin faced last August. Boris Yeltsin's popularity as 
President had reached a new low. The Bank of New York scandal had crystalised 
revulsion over corruption in the Russian leadership. His family and 
supporters feared for their necks and fortunes. If the attention of voters 
was to bediverted elsewhere, the Chech-ens were an obvious target. No other 
ethnic group is so detested in Russia. In 1994-96 the Chechens fought the 
federal army to a standstill. 

More importantly, most Russians see Chechnya as a Sicily of the Caucasus, a 
bandit stronghold, whose people kidnap children and murder business 
competitors. 

The chronology for Moscow and Chechnya in the second half of last year is 
revealing and, to many, highly suspicious. On 8 August, Shamil Basayev, a 
powerful Chechen warlord, invaded Dagestan to the east of Chechnya in the 
name of Islamic revolution. On 9 August, Vladimir Putin, a former KGB 
officer, wholly unknown in Russia, was appointed Prime Minister. In a little 
over a month the politics of Russia was transformed. 

The first bomb, on 4 September, killed 62 people in buildings occupied by 
military officers and their families in Buinaksk in Dagestan. Four days later 
a second bomb killed 92 working-class Russians in an apartment block in south 
Moscow. A further explosion on 13 September killed another 112 people in the 
same area and was followed by a devastating truck bomb in the southern city 
of Volgodonsk. Every Russian was terrified of being the next target. 

The bombers were not found, but the government and nearly all the Russian 
people blamed the Chechens for the bombs. Within a week of the last 
explosion, Russian troops were on the move and at the beginning of October 
they crossed into Chechnya. 

******

#10
ANALYSIS-C.Asia heads look to Russia for stability
By Sujata Rao

MOSCOW, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The countries making up former Soviet Central Asia 
may wish they could break away from the influence of mighty Russia, but 
Tuesday's summit of ex-Soviet states showed that remains a pipedream for now. 

The meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States, which groups 12 of the 
15 ex-Soviet republics, underlined Russia's dominant position in the region 
as other members sought its support in dealing with their security problems. 

The trend is clearest in Central Asia, a vast region with enormous mineral 
wealth but also plagued by religious and ethnic tensions, some of which 
flared into open conflicts last year. 

Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev proposed a programme to fight 
"terrorism" within the CIS and all the leaders endorsed Russia's candidacy as 
chairman of the body. 

"It's basically a love-hate relationship with Russia," said John Schoberlein, 
head of Harvard University's Forum for Central Asian Studies. "De facto, they 
know Russia is leader. 

"On one hand, they are concerned about their independence and any 
infringement of their sovereignty, but on the other, they are rather 
dependent on Russia, economically, politically and also because Russia can 
make trouble for them. 

The dependence has been highlighted by the growth of Islamic fundamentalism 
all over Central Asia. 

Tiny Kyrgyzstan sought Russian aid to end an invasion by Uzbek guerrillas 
last August, while Tajikistan's leader Imomali Rakhmonov relies heavily on 
Russian border troops to guard the southern flank of his war-scarred 
mountainous state. 

Uzbek leader Islam Karimov, initially cool towards Russia, changed his mind 
about withdrawing from a common security treaty with Moscow when he narrowly 
escaped assassination by Moslem radicals last February. 

"Uzbekistan feels that the very existence of the CIS... depends on how Russia 
acts and sees its future," Karimov told a post-summit news conference. 

"Russia can be relied on as the force to defeat geo-political plans drawn up 
by those supporting extremism and terrorism." 

The states also support Russia's campaign to crush "terrorists and bandits" 
in Chechnya. And Russia, keen to regain waning influence over the region, has 
responded enthusiastically. 

Speaking after being unanimously elected chairman of the CIS, Russia's Acting 
President Vladimir Putin vowed to stamp out "international terrorism." 

"We have no right to allow this and we will not allow this," he told the 
leaders. "Our joint efforts will be effective and decisive." The campaign 
would be even more decisive, he said, than during the recent attacks in 
Kyrgyzstan." 

DIFFERENT ECONOMIES BUT COMMON HEADACHES 

All five states have been at pains to stress that their economies are 
different from Russia's, especially after seeing their currencies depreciate 
and investors take to their heels following the Russian rouble collapse in 
1998. 

Since then, the region has tried to reduce its dependence on Russia. Russia's 
share in Kazakh trade, for instance, fell below 20 percent at the end of 1999 
from over 30 percent in 1998. 

"This is a sign of Central Asia's efforts to reorient itself to integrate 
with world markets and to loosen ties with Russia," said Martin Raiser, 
principal economist with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development 
in London. 

The success has so far been limited. 

Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan are dependent on Russia for routes to export 
their oil and natural gas to the West, but both countries are working on 
projects, funded by Western investors, to create routes allowing their 
pipelines to bypass Russia. 

But the leaders, keen to avoid dissent spawned by growing poverty, have 
played up terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism as a common danger. 

"The threat seems real but its size is being exaggerated," said Andrei 
Grozin, an expert on Central Asia at the Institute for Diaspora and 
Integration. "The leaders need to mobilise society to justify their 
non-democratic actions." 

The question mark now is on the nature of Russia's attitude towards the 
strategically located and oil-rich landmass. 

"It's difficult to predict what Russia will do (in Central Asia) because we 
know so little about what Putin will do," Schoberlein said. "His connection 
with the KGB could suggest a greater role for Russia and possibly not a very 
pleasant one." 

*******

#11
BBC MONITORING
RUSSIAN COMMUNIST LEADER DENIES DOING DEAL WITH KREMLIN
Source: Ekho Moskvy radio, Moscow, in Russian 1115 gmt 25 Jan 00 

Russian Communist Party leader Gennadiy Zyuganov has denied doing a deal with 
the Kremlin under which his party has a free hand in the Duma in return for 
not trying very hard in the presidential elections. He defended the 
allocation of committee jobs in parliament with the Unity faction as a normal 
manifestation of democracy, in which the majority naturally prevails. The 
walkout factions should get on with the job of serving their electorate. 
During a 30-minute radio interview, he was also critical of the Parliamentary 
Assembly of the Council of Europe for moves to suspend Russia, and also 
explained why he opposes attempts to strip Duma members of their immunity 
from prosecution. The following are excerpts from his interview on Russian 
Ekho Moskvy radio on 25th January, with subheadings inserted editorially: 

[Presenter] The time is 1418 in Moscow. Good day. This is the daytime news 
channel, I'm Irina Merkulova and our guest today is Gennadiy Zyuganov, the 
leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Good day, Gennadiy 
Andreyevich. 

[Zyuganov] Hello. 

Europe and Chechnya 

[Question] PACE looked at the Chechnya issue this week, and this could end in 
us being suspended from the Council of Europe. You're off to Strasbourg today 
to speak at the hearings on Chechnya. What will you say there? 

[Answer] ... It's a great pity that some people are using Chechnya to try to 
score points and are again tabling proposals that are punitive for Russia. 
This is dishonest and pointless and wrong. It is in everyone's interests for 
the bandit element in Chechnya to be suppressed ... 

The thing is that if the Chechnya issue continues to expand it could end in a 
major tragedy for all of Europe. I'm sure that we can convince European 
public opinion and MPs. I want to speak at the plenary session. I have good 
contacts with all the committee chiefs and the party groups ... 

I believe the European parliamentarians are interested in active cooperation 
with Russia, and there is every reason for this. In my view, there are very 
influential forces both in Europe and across the Atlantic that particularly 
oppose the unification of Europe ... 

If one combines the technical, cultural and production potential of whole 
Europe with the potential of Russia, a Eurasian country, this will become the 
most competitive enterprise of the 21st century ... 

Can you imagine this force? On the other hand, Russia has 1,500 joint 
enterprises with Germany alone. None of them stopped production after the 
crisis of August 1998. I spoke recently in front of German public, major 
bankers, industrialists and state officials. They are very interested in 
developing relations. Any sanctions by PACE or someone else would only spoil 
the relations and benefit neither Europe, nor Russia, nor Germany, Italy, nor 
Britain, nor Spain. They would only benefit our competitors. 

[Q] However, representatives of the Council of Europe have recommended that 
the European Commission should introduce sanctions or measures against Russia 
over Chechnya. This is a question of putting on hold 90m dollars within the 
TACIS programme. The introduction of social preferential treatment in trade 
has also been postponed. This will cost Russia 60m euros. 

[A] I don't think this is a far-sighted decision. The bombardment of 
Yugoslavia, undertaken on the initiative of the USA, has already cost the 
euro dearly. The euro has lost approximately 30 per cent of its initial 
value. This causes huge losses in Europe. Any sanctions of this kind would 
only make worse the economic situation in Europe and bring about nothing 
good. 

I think we should work closer with European countries and the situation will 
change. Those who vote for sanctions should be invited to the North Caucasus. 
Let them see for themselves what is going on in Chechnya ... 

[Q] While in Strasbourg you intend to put in a word for Yugoslavia, correct? 
Which is under sanctions. As far as I'm aware you met the ambassador 
yesterday. 

[A] I met the ambassador today, and through all the media I've again said to 
the countries of Europe that the sanctions must be dropped. Especially since 
an entire state and nation are affected. This is no new policy. It's an old 
policy, a punitive one, an attempt to fence off an entire nation and people 
with barbed wire and discriminate against them. It's unworthy of modern 
Europe and it's absolutely wrong. It only worsens the situation in any 
country. It shouldn't be done. 

Duma standoff 

[Q] ... How do you view the current situation in the Duma, and the leaders of 
the three factions saying they will not return to the chamber? 

[A] Any MP or leader has to understand that the elections are over. They 
promised to the people that they would work conscientiously and honestly. 
They won their mandates and are obliged now to carry them out. The State 
Duma, and the parliament in any country, is a body in which issues are 
decided by agreement and by voting. If the majority votes for a law or for an 
appointment, then everyone should accept that. 

This is what democracy is all about - you argue your case and engage in 
debate. But when the vote takes place the decision is taken and the law 
enters effect. Now, these three factions are unhappy at the way the 
committees were shared out. I am one of the authors of the package deal. The 
last time we made some concessions to Yabloko and the factions but we set 
specific conditions as to the how's and where's. This time round, they 
declined to accept those conditions. And made their own proposals which were 
totally unacceptable to us. 

[Q] For example? 

[A] The international affairs committee. It used to be run by Lukin, from 
Yabloko. A total failure. He headed our delegation to Strasbourg, which 
consisted of over 30 people including members of the upper chamber, senators, 
and of the Duma as well. For an entire year they had to put up with no 
organization and no work. When you're abroad, you have to represent the 
interests of the whole country. You ought to uphold and protect those 
interests. He did nothing. After a year, he was unanimously removed from that 
job. Now Yavlinskiy and Lukin want that committee again. Who's going to 
support him after that kind of performance? Nobody. Kiriyenko and 17th August 
1998. Remember how our economy went down in flames? The Federation Council 
has investigated this affair and it's the biggest scandal and destruction of 
market structures and businesses ever in our country. Who was taking the 
decisions? Kiriyenko, with Yabloko's Zadornov in the Finance Ministry. And 
Aleksashenko in the Central Bank. Also in there were Chubays, Gaydar and, 
apparently, representatives of the (?World Bank) as well. And they decided 
not to pay domestic or foreign debts, and to devalue the rouble how many 
times over. The result - the entire financial pyramid falls over and takes 
with it R400bn of our savers' money. And 20bn dollars that over a hundred 
foreign banks had put in. The Federation Council arrived at an unprecedented 
conclusion - those who act like that have no right to any senior financial 
post in the state. And they were named - Kiriyenko, Chubays, Gaydar, 
Aleksashenko, Zadornov and son. They were all named. And now that very same 
Kiriyenko wants to be in charge of the business committee. But in Moscow 
alone they sent 400 businesses to the wall. They bankrupted talented people, 
not only hustlers. Who would want Kiriyenko in that job? [laughs] 

[Q] But the Union of Right Forces won a decent number of votes, including in 
Moscow. 

[A] And by the way, they were offered some pretty nice jobs. 

[Q] Gennadiy Andreyevich, sorry, but - 

[A] Hang on a minute. The budget committee is a fundamental one. I have just 
looked who has subscribed to which committee. About 50 have already 
subscribed to the budget committee. 

[Q] Are they the Russian Regions and Aleksandr Zhukov? 

[A] No, the budget committee. He is not from the Russian Regions. He has been 
elected as a member of Fatherland - All Russia. Wherever he is now, he has 
been elected as a member of Fatherland - All Russia. 

Krasheninnikov, from Kiriyenko's Union of Right Forces, has got the 
legislation committee. Nearly all laws have passed through this committee, 
560 laws. There are also the CIS committee, the commissions for corruption, 
ethics and interparliamentary relations. Yavlinskiy has only 21 deputies. His 
request has been accepted and he has put forward a deputy for Seleznev. This 
is more than needed. Their demands are unreasonable. They are just carrying 
out their election campaign and don't want to do simple work. I would very 
much like those who voted for them to ask them why they do not attend Duma 
sessions ... 

They will have to return and work. Otherwise, all parties and movements have 
long party lists, and seats and committees will be redistributed ... 

No to abolishing MPs' immunity 

[Q] Gennadiy Andreyevich, three factions - the Union of Right Forces, 
Fatherland - All Russia and Yabloko - want to make a priority a law that 
would limit MPs' perks and in particular abolish immunity. 

[A] I think the most important law is to ensure a sufficient minimum income 
for everyone. The second one would be to ensure personal security. The third 
would be urgent measures to reduce the taxes that have suffocated our 
economy. As for immunity, even with the current status, if someone has done 
something criminal and the evidence is there, then tomorrow he will be up in 
court and the Duma will be pleased to vote for that. You know that full well. 

[Q] As far as I'm aware - 

[Q] But there's also political immunity, and that's a different issue 
altogether. Just think what would happen if political immunity were lifted. 
Imagine there's a vote to impeach Yeltsin. Half of all MPs wouldn't get to 
the Duma. They'd be pulled over for some traffic offence, have their cars 
searched, something planted, and be shoved into a cell for three days. And a 
law absolutely vital for the country wouldn't get through. We've been here 
before. As I was saying on NTV yesterday, we had the [gubernatorial] 
elections in Moscow Region. Our candidates for governor and deputy governor 
were pulled over several times and searched for an entire hour. We had 
observers standing by to make sure nothing was planted. So these people know 
exactly what they're proposing. They want to completely wreck the Duma's 
work. Is that the perk they have in mind? There are no particular privileges. 
The main privilege of an MP is to honestly and conscientiously serve the 
people and the electorate. But that's what they don't want to do. Three days 
already they've been refusing to work in the committees or the Duma. It's a 
disgrace ... 

[Q] Gennadiy Andreyevich, the rumour is that the communists have done a 
secret deal with the Kremlin - you get your way in the Duma and in return you 
don't, how shall I say this, run a very active presidential campaign. Will 
you be running an honest campaign? 

[A] You've just reported that our supporters have gathered 500,000 
signatures. 

[Q] Yes, and congratulations on doing that. 

[A] We'll have a million in two days and 3m in three days. We're running a 
very active election campaign. We published our manifesto, Ways to Create, 
back in June ... So these rumours are not simply misleading, they're also 
completely groundless ... We're not just ready for this presidential 
campaign, but we're serious about it. 

[Q] And you'll fight to the end? 

[A] As I said, we're already hard at work. 

[Q] Thank you. Our guest today was the leader of the Communist Party of the 
Russian Federation, Gennadiy Zyuganov. 

******

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