January 18, 2000    
This Date's Issues: 4044 4045 4046

Johnson's Russia List
#4045
18 January 2000
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. Financial Times (UK): Andrew Jack, Oligarchs back Putin economic think-tank. 
2. smi.ru: GOVERNMENT WANTS TO KEEP FREEDOM OF SPEECH TO ITSELF.               3. AP: Russia To Judge Putin on Present.
4. Christian Science Monitor: Fred Weir, Hide-and-seek with Russia's news minders.
5. RFE/RL: Sophie Lambroschini, Putin Lacks Strong Opponent.
6. The Electronic Telegraph (UK): Marcus Warren, Russian general urges halt to Chechen war. (Anatoly Kulikov)
7. BBC: Stephen Dalziel, Russia's suffering conscripts.
8. Moscow Times: Natalya Shulyakovskaya, Putin's Loyalty Contest Takes Off.
9. Trud: RUSSIA: IS TIME RIPE FOR NEW CHANGES? Interview with Yuri Levada, Director of the Russian National Public Opinion Center (VTSIOM).
10. Intrerfax: ZYUGANOV: COMMUNISTS PLAN TO CREATE BROAD CENTER-LEFT COALITION.
11. Reuters: Chechen refugees tell of hell in cellars.] 

*******

#1
Financial Times (UK)
18 January 2000
[for personal use only]
RUSSIA: Oligarchs back Putin economic think-tank 
By Andrew Jack in Moscow

A number of Russia's leading business oligarchs are funding and advising an 
economic think-tank set up by Vladimir Putin, the acting president, which is 
due to publish initial policy recommendations early next month.

Anatoly Chubais, the former deputy prime minister who now runs the 
electricity utility UES, and Rem Vyakhirev, chief executive of Gazprom, the 
gas monopoly, are among the supporters of the Centre for Strategic Research.

At a time when Mr Putin's own views on economics remain unclear, the details 
of the backers of the centre, which was established at the end of last year, 
provide an important insight into his circle of allies ahead the presidential 
elections scheduled for March 26.

German Gref, who has been appointed to run the think-tank, said both Mr 
Chubais, much criticised for his privatisation campaign in the mid-1990s, and 
Mr Vyakhirev, who runs a company subject to frequent calls for a break-up of 
its monopoly, would be consulted.

Mr Gref, who is first deputy minister for state property and a close ally of 
Mr Putin from his native St Petersburg, said other contributors to the centre 
included Svyazinvest, the holding company of regional telecoms companies now 
run by Valery Yashin, also close collaborator of Mr Putin from St Petersburg.

He also cited Transneft, the state oil pipeline opera tor run by a former top 
executive from Lukoil, which has declared its support for Mr Putin.

Transneft's former head, Dmitri Savelyev, is close to Sergei Kiriyenko, the 
leader of the Union of Right Forces, which was endorsed by Mr Putin just 
ahead of parliamentary elections in December.

The centre has been founded under the auspices of five economic research 
centres and a range of specialists with difference views. Some officials have 
stressed that it receives no government funding and is independent of Mr 
Putin. But Mr Gref said it was tightly linked to the acting president, who 
would have the final say on policy recommendations.

Mr Gref said: "We plan a liberal model with quite a lot of state regulation 
of the economy." He added that there would be the introduction of state 
control into some areas where "unfortunately" there had been none in the 
past. He added that social reforms might also have a higher priority than 
economic modifications in the coming months.

He said a first statement of concepts defined by the centre should be 
circulated in early February and would be available on the internet, while a 
more detailed set of proposals would be finalised in April.

He also said he had been associated with drawing up a policy statement issued 
by Mr Putin at the end of December, which calls for market reforms but also 
recommends government support such as tax breaks and subsidies for key 
industries such as raw material exporters.

******

#2
www.smi.ru
19:34 17.01.00
Mass Media
GOVERNMENT WANTS TO KEEP FREEDOM OF SPEECH TO ITSELF 
A draft government decree is under preparation that is going to restrict the 
freedom of the press considerably, Secretary of the Union of Journalists of 
Russia Mikhail Fyodorov said. According to Fyodorov, the practice of 
licensing mass media is planned to be introduced in addition to the existing 
practice of their registration with the Ministry of the Press. Plus the 
license of a given paper may be abrogated or suspended for any period of time 
by decision of the authorities. 
Comment: The Government tried to curb the uninhibited freedom enjoyed by the 
online media even before the New Year, but it seems to have abandoned the 
idea (at least, in its most offensive manifestations) after the "meeting with 
representatives of the Web community". Now we have another initiative, this 
time in pressurizing the offline press. The license, a favorite weapon of the 
Russian bureaucrat in exercising pressure upon the media, alas, looks all too 
realistic in this case. It is too early now to speak of the consequences, 
should this decision be implemented of this decision - perhaps, as it was in 
the case of the Web, the authorities will choose not to enter into direct 
conflict with the press. But the general trend is undoubtedly disturbing. It 
is confirmed by the article in the January 13 issue of "Izvestiya" about 
Vladimir Putin having signed amendments to the Law on supporting the local 
press. From now on, the subsidies to the local newspapers will be sent not 
through the regional budgets, but directly from Moscow. This given the 
circumstance that the funds earmarked for the support of the local press in 
2000 have grown 2.5 times, from 60 million rubles to 150 million. It would be 
going too far to say that such a measure is a considerable threat to free 
speech, but it certainly evidences a wish to strengthen government influence 
on the media. 
Lenta.ru: Freedom of Press to Be Curtailed Significantly? 
"Izvestiya": Local Papers Will Show Their Gratitude to the Kremlin 

*******

#3
Russia To Judge Putin on Present
17 January 2000
By DEBORAH SEWARD

MOSCOW (AP) - The once-dreaded KGB has fared well in the new Russia. Not long 
ago, just looking at its ocher and gray stone headquarters in central Moscow 
drove fear into most Russians. 

In the eight years since the Soviet collapse, the KGB has changed its name, 
hung white, blue and red Russian flags on the front of the building and seen 
its leaders emerge in influential roles in business and politics. 

Vladimir Putin, who spent 15 years as an active-duty KGB officer, is the 
front-runner in the presidential race to capture Russia's highest office. 
That's something that worries some in the West but doesn't seem to bother 
most Russians. 

What Putin did while serving the Soviet secret police and what he now stands 
for remain murky. The real keys to his past are locked up in files that are 
closed to the public. 

Russians are quick to note that Putin didn't serve in the most despised 
department of the KGB, the dreaded Fifth Directorate that was responsible for 
domestic repression. And they point out that former President Bush once ran 
the CIA. 

Weeding out former members of the security services would be impossible in 
Russia, where hundreds of thousands of people once worked for the KGB and 
millions more served as informers, at least part-time. 

Having worked in the security forces is not a badge of disgrace in Russia, 
unlike in the Czech Republic, Poland or the former Soviet republics in the 
Baltics, which have tried to confront their totalitarian past. 

Many Russians appear willing to judge Putin on what he can do for them now 
rather than worry about his past, about which they know little anyway. 

Filip Alexandrov, a 25-year-old actor who works part-time as a bartender, 
said he doesn't plan to vote for Putin but doesn't hold his espionage 
credentials against the acting Russian president. 

``It doesn't mean a thing that he was in the KGB because in our country 
millions of people worked for them in one way or another,'' Alexandrov said. 
``Besides, there won't be any going back to the old ways.'' 

Putin, who studied law, joined the KGB in 1975. After training, he was sent 
to East Germany, a key Soviet satellite at the edge of the Iron Curtain. 

Putin's time in East Germany coincided with the years of ``stagnation'' back 
home, when top KGB officials became increasingly aware - and worried - about 
the Soviet Union's growing technological and military backwardness. 

Experts and German media reports say Putin's assignments in East Germany 
included acquiring Western technology and recruiting West German businessmen 
as informers. 

When the Berlin Wall fell, Putin slipped back into his hometown, Leningrad, 
which was gripped by the furor of ``perestroika,'' former Soviet leader 
Mikhail Gorbachev's efforts to open up his country. 

``Putin was placed as a watchdog over democratic development,'' said 
Alexander Rahr, the top Russia expert at the German Society for Foreign 
Policy. ``People like Putin were chosen to guard over controlled change in 
the Soviet Union.'' 

Putin became a top aide to Anatoly Sobchak, the reformist mayor of Leningrad, 
who was once a presidential hopeful himself. 

Under Sobchak, Putin used his excellent German and experience living abroad 
to help attract Western, especially German, capital to Leningrad. The city 
was renamed St. Petersburg after the Soviet collapse in 1991. 

In the early 1990s, according to Rahr, Putin won ``good marks'' from German 
businessmen as somebody who ``gets things done.'' Russians today like his 
tough, take-charge attitude. 

While serving Sobchak, Putin was perceived as firmly anchored in the reform 
camp. 

Even among former dissidents, there appears to be little concern that Putin 
could reinstate the tight political controls, censorship and closed borders 
of the Soviet era. 

``There is no way back, no return to terror and political isolation,'' said 
Boris Pustintsev, who spent five years in prison for protesting the Soviet 
invasion of Hungary in 1956. ``It's not possible.'' 

But during the years that Putin spent in St. Petersburg, the city became 
known as one of the most corrupt and dangerous in Russia, and Putin's past is 
not necessarily squeaky clean. 

Local lawmakers in St. Petersburg tried to investigate allegations that Putin 
was involved in an export deal that allegedly violated Russian legislation. 
However, the probe found no wrongdoing. 

After losing mayoral elections in 1996, Putin's former boss, Sobchak, fled to 
France after he fell under suspicion of corruption. He returned to Russia 
only after his protege became prime minister in August. 

Putin moved into the highest levels of Russian power in 1998 when he was 
named head of the Federal Security Service, the main successor to the KGB. 

During his term as security service chief, Putin was no more successful than 
his predecessors in fighting corruption. 

``Putin has been at the very heart of institutions that have been deeply 
corrupt,'' said Mark Galeotti, head of the Russian crime research center at 
Keele University in England. 

Putin has never made any public effort to distance himself from the security 
services and has publicly honored its former leaders. 

Ordinary Russians appear to like Putin's clean-cut, sober image. The most 
recent polls suggest he could win the March 26 presidential elections in the 
first round. 

``Putin's past doesn't bother me. If business goes well, so what if he worked 
in the KGB,'' said Valera Karmanov, a 30-year-old security guard. ``It 
doesn't matter as long as he runs things well and doesn't steal.'' 

*******

#4
Christian Science Monitor
18 January 2000
Hide-and-seek with Russia's news minders
By Fred Weir

Our arrest happened within half an hour of arriving in Vladikavkaz, the 
capital of the mainly Christian Caucasian republic of North Ossetia. 

We were caught talking about the Chechen war with a couple of off-duty 
soldiers lounging on the street. Hauled off to police headquarters, after a 
couple of hours we were sent politely but firmly on our way by an officer of 
the Federal Security Service (FSB), the former KGB. 

The message was clear: Don't try finding out anything about Chechnya here. 

In what is being called "the information war," journalists are apparently the 
enemy. The Russians have decided that one mistake of the unsuccessful 1994-96 
campaign to crush Chechnya's independence drive was to allow the press to 
cover it. Not any more. The embattled territory of Chechnya has been closed 
to reporters, except for a tiny handful who are granted special military 
accreditation and go in under close supervision. Many major news 
organizations have tried for months, unsuccessfully, for this press pass. 

But to arrive anywhere in the North Caucasus today is to pass unwillingly 
under tight FSB surveillance. 

North Ossetia is the only traditionally Christian region among the six 
Russian republics that nestle up against the high, snow-capped Caucasus 
Mountains. In Soviet times it was spa country, where people came to ski, 
drink from mineral springs, and enjoy the fresh mountain air. Our brief 
police episode notwithstanding, the local people are warm and friendly. 

But post-Soviet times have not been kind. The Ossetians fought a savage 1992 
war against their Ingush neighbors, and hundreds of local boys are serving 
with Russian units nearby against their hereditary enemies, the Chechens. 

Barbed wire between 

Theoretically, Ossetia's border with next-door Ingushetia is an internal 
Russian boundary, like the line between two states in the US. But it looks 
more like the Berlin Wall, with barbed wire, minefields, and heavily armed 
guards. We passed through three separate checkpoints - where Ossetian, then 
Russian, then Ingush security scrutinize us in turn. On the Ingush side, 
refugees from the brutal ethnic cleansing in that forgotten 1992 conflict 
still live in forlorn little clusters of huts. 

Of Russia's 89 republics and regions, Ingushetia is by far the poorest. The 
republic's unemployment level approaches 80 percent. Sociologists say if it 
weren't for the safety net of strong family and clan structures, many of its 
300,000 people would be starving. Since Russian airstrikes began last 
September, Ingushetia has been inundated with an estimated 170,000 fleeing 
Chechens. The two peoples are closely related and share a language, but the 
strains are growing. 

On the Ingush side, we hired our own driver and stayed in a private home, 
eschewing the Assa, the republic's one official hotel, in the capital of 
Nazran. Our intent was to keep a low profile and avoid having a security 
guard assigned to us. That decision carries its own risks. Since the end of 
the first Chechen war in 1996, hundreds of Russians and foreigners have been 
kidnapped by the crime gangs that flourish here and next door in Chechnya. 

The last person to disappear was, in fact, a journalist. Dmitri Balburov, 
correspondent for the Russian paper Moskovski Novosti, was seized by 
gangsters last October in Nazran, apparently sold out by his driver. He was 
freed in southern Chechnya last week by Russian troops. We eyed our own 
driver suspiciously, especially when he began to protest - quite unsolicited 
- that he would gladly lay down his life to defend us. 

Leila's place, where we stayed on advice from other journalists, was a snug, 
Caucasian-style brick house, with a chicken-infested, courtyard where we set 
up our satellite phone. Leila, a sweet-natured woman, cooked for us, cranked 
up the gas boiler for our occasional showers, even washed the caked mud off 
our boots when we came trudging back from the border refugee camps. She made 
it seem like a good idea to steer clear of the Assa Hotel. 

But when night fell over Nazran, the silence was deep and heavy. The 
occasional roar of a passing Russian military convoy or a burst of 
automatic-weapons fire from who knows where made us sit up in bed, sweating 
and listen intently. I even caught myself longing for the company of the FSB 
a couple of times. 

Gold domes in the snow 

We paid the price for going incognito when we tried to arrange an interview 
with Ingushetia's president, Ruslan Aushev. We drove out to Magas, a new 
capital city that Mr. Aushev is building on a bleak plain a few miles from 
Nazran. So far only the government headquarters, a lavish presidential 
palace, and the parliament have been completed. Here in the poorest place in 
Russia, flooded with starving and freezing refugees, was the set of a 
science-fiction movie: three modernistic, gold-domed buildings rising from an 
empty landscape with the brooding, snow-swept Caucasus beyond. 

But Aushev's press secretary raged at us. Why weren't we staying in the Assa 
Hotel with the other journalists? Why didn't we register ourselves with 
security when we entered Ingushetia? In the end, we got no interview. 

As we were leaving the president's palace, we met a miserable little group of 
Chechen women who said they'd been living on the street with their children 
since fleeing their homes in Grozny the week before. They told us they were 
out of money and out of hope, and had come to beg Mr. Aushev for help. But 
they didn't get an interview either. 

*******

#5
Russia: Putin Lacks Strong Opponent
By Sophie Lambroschini

Russian interim President Vladimir Putin officially launched his presidential 
campaign last week -- but he has no powerful opponent to campaign against. 
Politicians are rushing to back a winner, and only a few voices are raised in 
dissent. RFE/RL's Sophie Lambroschini reports from Moscow that some 
commentators fear an opposition will be manufactured, so that Putin's win 
will not be seen as too easy.

Moscow, 17 January 2000 (RFE/RL) -- Everybody loves a winner. Like gamblers 
who've been given a solid tip, Russian politicians are falling over 
themselves to declare allegiance to the popular acting president, Vladimir 
Putin. The incumbent is widely seen as a sure thing in the March 26 
presidential election. 

There is very little resistance to Putin, and the few dissenters seem weak 
and without influence. Some observers wonder whether even the critics are not 
actually playing to the advantage of a Kremlin system intent on keeping up 
democratic appearances. 

The main opposition force is the Communists, and they have only about 15 
percent support. Other candidates, such as ultranationalist Vladimir 
Zhirinovsky and reformer Grigory Yavlinsky, seem to have ruled out the 
possibility that they might win. 

The loudest opposition voice so far is that of Samara Governor Konstantin 
Titov, who says he is considering running against Putin. Titov told Interfax 
that the presidential election does not look like a race in a democracy, and 
that Putin could emerge as a virtual dictator. He elaborated on that theme in 
an interview with Radio Liberty's Russian Service. 

"I don't have the slightest doubt that these are pseudo-democratic, 
totalitarian elections. Today we are organizing elections of the communist 
regime. The candidate has been [officially] introduced and he carries the 
high title of successor. He received the relay baton. Now we just have to 
come to the polling stations and vote. There are no alternative democratic 
candidates in these elections. Everyone understands that we are in the same 
situation as in 1996. [We must choose] either Putin, who is an unknown but 
apparently a democrat, or Zyuganov and a return to the communist past. They 
are putting us in the position of 1996 -- on purpose." 

Some Russian media interpreted Titov's outburst not as a genuine expression 
of democratic indignation, but rather as a sign that Titov was being put 
forward to play the role of opponent. Titov is one of the founders of the 
Union of Right Forces (SPS) movement, whose other leading figures are 
enthusiastic supporters of Putin. The daily "Segodnya" quoted unnamed sources 
as saying that Titov was being created as a phony alternative to Putin. And 
the newspaper "Nezavisimaya gazeta" recalled the 1991 presidential election, 
when an obscure deputy ran against Boris Yeltsin to create the illusion of 
pluralism. 

Some Russian political scientists, too, are warning that Russia's political 
system is developing some authoritarian features. Mikhail Delyagin of the 
Institute for Globalization Problems warns that the lack of a viable 
opposition to Putin gives the Kremlin unchecked power. 

Speaking to our correspondent, Delyagin outlined an alarmist scenario, saying 
that if the economy worsens, Putin could resort to dictatorial methods to 
maintain order. "The combination of informational, financial and forceful 
methods makes it possible to crush any opposition. It is most likely that the 
Duma will turn into an echo of the Soviet Union's Supreme Soviet. At the same 
time [Putin] is facing very colossal, grave economic problems which, if they 
stay unsolved, can bring on the collapse of Russia. He can't solve these 
problems because right now he is leaning on two clans, [Boris] Berezovsky's 
and [Anatoly] Chubais's. Both clans demonstrated quite convincingly during 
their domination that they were not capable of solving Russia's deep 
problems. When we are in the presence of an authority incapable of solving 
essential, urgent economic issues, we are in a situation that incites the 
state to revert to terror." 

But other political commentators say that is going too far. Former 
presidential adviser Georgy Satarov is head of the Indem think-tank. He said 
on NTV ("Itogi") Sunday that the process of election alone will give Putin 
sufficient legitimacy. In Satarov's words: "It's not Putin's fault that there 
isn't a strong alternative [candidate]. It's just a characteristic of the 
phase of democracy we are now going through." 

Newspapers and television stations backed Putin uncritically while he was 
prime minister. Now that he is interim president, however, they are toning 
down their support for the policy he is most closely connected with -- the 
war in Chechnya. 

Last week, NTV's popular news program "Sevodniachko" reported that the 
authorities are harassing Radio Liberty correspondent Andrei Babitsky for his 
critical coverage of the Russian military's action in Chechnya. Photos that 
Babitsky took of dead Russian soldiers were confiscated by the police at the 
film shop where his wife had brought them to be developed. 

In a poll released today by the independent research center ROMIR, 
three-fourths of Russians surveyed said they had a positive attitude toward 
Putin. But 11.5 percent said they feared that Boris Yeltsin's resignation and 
appointment of Putin as acting president could lead to the establishment of a 
totalitarian regime. 

******

#6
The Electronic Telegraph (UK)
18 January 2000
[for personal use only]
Russian general urges halt to Chechen war
By Marcus Warren in Moscow

ONE of Russia's senior commanders in its last war with Chechnya called on 
the military yesterday to halt its advance, joining a growing chorus of 
unease at Moscow's handling of the conflict.

Artillery barrage: Russian troops continue the Chechen campaign 
Gen Anatoly Kulikov, commander-in-chief of Russian forces in Chechnya in the 
first half of 1995 and later interior minister, appealed to his successors to 
consolidate rather than push on into Grozny, the capital, and the mountains.

"Maybe today it is worth stopping on the territory which is under our 
control," he told Russia's NTV, conceding that this would create "two 
Chechnyas". He said: "This is our Ulster. It will last for years to come." 

Gen Kulikov was the first senior veteran of the 1994-96 war to question the 
goal of seizing the whole of Chechnya, a cornerstone of Russia's 
"counter-terrorist operation" against "terrorists and bandits" launched last 
autumn. His scepticism comes amid new speculation that a final assault on 
Grozny is imminent.

Military analysts have argued that the spectacle of Russian forces advancing 
from one victory to another, as served up by the Moscow media, is an 
illusion. "It is increasingly obvious that the Kremlin and the Defence 
Ministry have grossly miscalculated," said one commentator, Pavel Felgenhauer.

A warning from someone such as Gen Kulikov is another sign that support in 
Russia for the offensive is beginning to fracture. Russian troops at present 
occupy the plains which make up two thirds of Chechnya. Gen Kulikov advocated 
merely strengthening control over the ridges overlooking Grozny, the railway 
running through Chechnya and the main roads, and "normalising the situation 
here". 

He said Russian losses were being hushed up and that the Interior Ministry 
troops guarding the army's rear were ill equipped for the guerrilla tactics 
favoured by the Chechens. However, anything less than total victory would be 
a humiliation for the generals commanding the war and a political disaster 
for Vladimir Putin, the acting president.

Their credibility is already in question after the failure of what was billed 
more than three weeks ago as the final stage of the operation to "liberate" 
Grozny. It now looks as though Russian forces have still not broken through 
into the city proper.

Mr Putin appealed to the West yesterday for support but also called on 
foreign governments and media to rely on "facts about the real situation from 
truthful information and not from propaganda".

However, Alexander Rutskoy, the former vice-president jailed for his role in 
the fighting in Moscow in 1993 but now a regional governor, said: "Not only 
Grozny but the whole of Chechnya should be turned into a Gobi desert in a 
week's time."

******

#7
BBC
18 January, 2000
Analysis: Russia's suffering conscripts 
By Russian affairs analyst Stephen Dalziel 

The impression given by some recent reports on the military operation in 
Chechnya is that, after three months pounding away at Chechen villages, the 
Russian army has suddenly ground to a halt. 

The spectre of defeat, as the army suffered in Chechnya in 1996 has 
apparently come back to haunt it. 

Once again, tales are being told of the poor conditions suffered by Russian 
conscripts. 

It is widely known that conditions for Russian conscripts at the best of 
times are tough. 

Bullying of younger soldiers by their seniors - known in Russian as 
dedovshchina - is a widespread problem. 

The Russian army is poorly-equipped, often badly-fed and morale is low. 

An opinion of conscript service often heard in Soviet times has never 
completely gone away: "It is important not that the conscript serves, but 
that he suffers". 

Although figures are not available, it is known that a high percentage of 
young men who should be conscripted manage to avoid it, either by buying some 
sort of excuse such as a doctor's note, or by simply not turning up. 

And if ordinary peace-time conditions are bad enough, it follows that 
fighting a tricky enemy over difficult terrain in unpleasant winter weather 
is going to make things even worse. 

Undoubtedly, it was with this in mind, and with the experience of the Chechen 
War from 1994 to 1996, when the Russian army was humiliated, that Russian 
generals began this campaign in a much more cautious manner. 

Appalling conditions 

By concentrating their efforts on long-range air and artillery strikes, they 
were able to continue the military operation for three months with very 
little actual fighting. 

But it was also likely that the closer they came to storming the Chechen 
capital, Grozny, the test for the army would be far greater. 

The conscripts' plight has been publicised by the Committee of Soldiers' 
Mothers, who reckon that the number of casualties suffered by the Russian 
army may be as much as six times the official figure of 500 dead. 

But the concerns being raised by the Soldiers' Mothers are not new. 

The Committee was formed during the Afghan War of 1979 to 1989, since when it 
has continued to highlight the often appalling conditions under which Russian 
conscripts serve. 

Sacrifice worthwhile 

The Committee's problem is that these conditions are now sufficiently well 
known for them not to shock the Russian public. 

Furthermore, the public, and, indeed, the soldiers themselves, do not measure 
their conditions against those enjoyed by a Western army. 

With levels of expectation lower as to what conditions of service will be 
like, Russian generals know that their soldiers will put up with a situation 
their Western counterparts would not tolerate. 

And, even with military setbacks, the overwhelming impression in Russia 
remains that this war is very different from the earlier one. 

Many believe that, if Russia can deal with the problem of Chechnya once and 
for all, the sacrifice endured by the conscripts will have been worthwhile. 

******

#8
Moscow Times
January 18, 2000 
Putin's Loyalty Contest Takes Off 
By Natalya Shulyakovskaya
Staff Writer

A new type of competitive spectator sport is catching on in Russia. 

Players must show artistry and dexterity while trying to outrun others in 
demonstrating loyalty to acting President Vladimir Putin, the odds-on 
favorite in March 26 elections. 

The wave of people flocking to the Putin banner began as soon as President 
Boris Yeltsin resigned Dec. 31, making Prime Minister Putin acting president. 
Groups to support Putin's presidential campaign and collect signatures for 
his nomination have mushroomed magically all over Russia. 

Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper, usually friendly to the Kremlin's chief 
opponent, Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov, offered sarcastic comment in the form of 
a front-page cartoon. 

It depicted a line of people, their tongues hanging out, lining up to run at 
a target in the shape of someone's buttocks. "The Governors' Slippery Road" 
read the headline. 

By Monday, the wave had reached Yakutia, in far-off Siberia. In Yakutsk, the 
republic's capital, Governor Vasily Vlasov presided over a meeting of yet 
another initiative group, telling his fellow Putin supporters the republic 
had to collect 35,000 signatures by February for Putin's nominating petition. 

Mikhail Mironov, the chief of the Kremlin department handling citizen's 
requests and correspondence, said letters and telegrams poured in as soon as 
Putin was named acting president. Instead of the usual 1,000 to 1,100 letters 
a day, Mironov's department is now handling at least 1,500. Of the first 
2,000 letters analyzed, 504 were solely devoted to congratulations. 

"It is a real barrage," Mironov said. "Most of the letters come from Moscow, 
the Moscow region, St. Petersburg, Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, the Rostov 
region." 

It's not just politicians who are placing their hopes in Putin. The meeting 
of the initiative group that nominated Putin for the presidency last week at 
the President Hotel attracted theater and movie stars - including actor and 
singer Mikhail Boyarsky, directors Konstantin Raikin, Mark Zakharov and Yury 
Lyubimov and a slew of others. 

"I just learned that Putin met his wife at my father's concert," said Raikin, 
son of legendary Soviet comic Arkady Raikin and now the director of Satirikon 
theater. "I am also counting on some sort of personal connections. I think I 
can be of use to him." 

Actor Yevgeny Mironov said, "I think that he will help us and we will again 
shoot great movies just like any great power would." 

Among the first to publicly demonstrate support was Lyudmila Zykina, the 
Soviet-era crooner famous for singing Russian folk and Soviet patriotic hits 
in folksy style. Zykina used to be a member of the political council of the 
previous party of power, Our Home Is Russia. 

In early January, she was shown on television shaking Putin's hand and 
saying, "I have wanted for a long, long time to meet you and tell you how 
much I admire you." 

"Switching channels, it is getting more and more difficult not to run into 
Putin," television critic Maria Zheleznova wrote in Novaya Gazeta. "One must 
rub one's eyes - even [Luzhkov-controlled] TV Tsentr is cautiously in favor." 

Putin's conduct of the war in Chechnya and his image as a blunt, 
action-oriented leader - burnished by favorable coverage on government 
television - have won him widespread public support, running over 50 percent 
in some presidential polls. He is considered the likely winner in the 
presidential election, especially if his primary opponents remain Communist 
Gennady Zyuganov, the flamboyant Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Yabloko leader 
Grigory Yavlinsky. 

Only last summer, the flood tide was running the other way, to Fatherland-All 
Russia, the coalition between powerful regional governors, Luzhkov and former 
Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov. But that lasted only as long as 
Fatherland-All Russia's front-runner status. When the bloc did poorly in Dec. 
19 parliamentary elections, the rush began the other way. 

Among the first governors to publicly pledge support to Putin were those in 
All Russia, which broke away from Fatherland. And last week members of the 
Northwestern Regional Association met in Petrozavodsk and gave Putin the nod. 

Even pro-Kremlin news media noted the stampede. In its account of the 
Petrozavodsk meeting, Kommersant, owned by Kremlin insider and financier 
Boris Berezovsky, described how St. Petersburg Governor Vladimir Yakovlev, a 
former leader of Fatherland-All Russia, read a statement calling on the 
governors for support. When he raised his eyes from the statement, the 
governors exclaimed "Yes" in unison. 

The meeting of Putin's initiative group included heavyweights such as Anatoly 
Chubais, Kremlin insider and head of Russian electrical monopoly RAO UES, Rem 
Vyakhirev, head of the Russian gas monopoly, Gazprom, and dozens of regional 
leaders. 

Sverdlovsk Governor Eduard Rossel said it will be no problem to collect 
500,000 signatures to nominate Putin for president. "We have 64 federal 
agencies. We will assign each one of them 10,000. It will bring in 640,000 in 
a couple of days." 

Bashkortostan's President Murtaza Rakhimov was surprisingly frank in his 
analysis. "Today the acting president has the highest chance to win," he 
said. "I think we will find a lot of money for Putin. There will be no 
problem." 

*******

#9
Trud
January 6, 2000
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
RUSSIA: IS TIME RIPE FOR NEW CHANGES?
Interview with Yuri Levada, Director of the Russian National 
Public Opinion Center (VTSIOM)
By Alexander PROTSENKO

Question: Mr. Levada, to what extent were the latest
developments unexpected: the president's resignation, and the
outcome of the parliamentary elections? Political scientists
maintain in chorus that it testifies to a radical change in the
public mood in Russia, meaning that its society is ready for
further reforming.
Answer: I wouldn't draw such categoric conclusions. While
Boris Yeltsin's resignation was truly unexpected, there was
nothing surprising about the December 19 voting outcome. Is it a
surprise that the "first prize" went to the communists? No one
ever doubted that, for all I know. Or that Unity ranked second?
This, too, was forecasted right before the voting by all the
serious sociological services. In particular, according to the
latest pre-election survey by VTSIOM, Unity was expected to score
24 percent, but received only a trifle less. The Fatherland-All
Russia bloc, according to our forecast, was to get 13 percent,
but received 13.33. As for the Right Forces Union, its outcome
was only a little higher than the 7 to 8 percent that we
predicted.

Question: Still, even six months ago, the forecasts were
totally different. To what extent, do you think, the result was
determined by the voters' frame of mind, or what can be
attributed to the quality PR work, including the much talked
about "dirty technologies"?
Answer: People's frame of mind is a very subjective notion;
it does not emerge all by itself and is subject to dynamic
changes. It was duly taken into account by all the canvassing
teams, especially the government-Kremlin one. The PR work was
truly successful in some areas, especially the "frantic" attacks
on Fatherland and the most active propaganda of the Putin
Cabinet's policies and actions. The campaign was very energetic
and sometimes even violent, especially in the first direction,
which is now admitted by all. But, the result is on hand.

Question: From this perspective, how can the unprecedented
success of the right forces be assessed? The Right Forces Union
will have the fourth largest faction in the State Duma. Isn't it
a sign of the first, however modest, success of the liberal idea
in this country?
Answer: It first of all means a fantastic success of the
government. It is for the first time in the post-Soviet Russia
that the elected State Duma is pro-government, different from the
previous ones. On the one hand, it is the result of a very strong
government pressure, on the other, of an even stronger admiration
the people have for the premier's personality. In any case,
Unity's success is no doubt, Vladimir Putin's personal success.
The Right Forces Union's rating started up only when it became
associated with the premier, too.

Question: It sounds like victory and success are wherever
Putin is. Does it mean that the people are tired of the
Russian-style democracy and are longing for an "iron fist"?
Answer: I must note that the people have been long waiting
for it. I would like to share some data of a recent survey
dedicated to Iosif Stalin's 120th birth anniversary: 44 percent
believe that the Stalin era brought good and bad in equal
portions to this country; 19 think that there was more good than
bad; and 3 more consider that era an absolutely good time. This
sums up to 66 percent.
The trend is apparent. Looking at Putin, the people must be
thinking that he is the one to materialize the dream they have
been dreaming for years, the "firm power." They apply their dream
to the premier's personality, which he realizes and seeks to live
up to it. But for that, he needs a constant, on-going success.
For now, his success only has to do with one area, which is
Chechnya.

Question: How is that? What about the dramatic rise of the
world oil prices in the time of his tenure? Isn't it a success
for a prime minister? Isn't it a good thing to head the cabinet
when the price of this country's main export product is 26
dollars a barrel, instead of last year's 10?
Answer: The situation with the oil prices is clear: they are
world prices and have practically nothing to do with Russia.
Seriously, the outlining picture is truly surprising.
Surveys manifest that the incumbent Russian premier enjoys a most
broad support of the public. They trust in him with an almost
religious ardor. In any case, even though the cabinet he heads
also enjoys some popular support, people do not really believe
that the cabinet is capable of doing something useful. In late
December, 40 percent of the population approved the cabinet's
work, while as many as 80 percent approved the premier's actions.

Question: Many political scientists assert that Putin's
rating grew driven by an unheard-of animation of the patriotic
trends in Russia. Which animation was, of course due to the
battles won in Chechnya.
Answer: What's new about it, is the fact that the patriotic
idea is now "exploited" by many parties and movements, while
earlier, it was an exclusive prerogative of the communists, and
the left-wingers in general. In reality, patriotic moods have
always prevailed in the Russian people. Until recently, they were
reflected in the bitterness about the multiple defeats "at all
fronts:" the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the multiple
humiliations in the international arena, and so on. Now the
Russians have been offered a chance of a psychological revenge. I
say psychological, because no victories in Chechnya can be
compared to the host of defeats in all other spheres. However
great the success in the Caucasus, it cannot change the whole
situation. 
Still, it is the main thing about Putin that people like: a
patriotism which is aimed at a serious business, the defeat of an
enemy. According to our surveys, more than two-thirds of Russians
support "such" Putin. And, more importantly, almost no censure is
heard in this sphere.

Question: Some say that the trend would be quickly reversed
if coffins started, God forbid, arriving from Chechnya in large
quantities.
Answer: The quantity is not the key point here; even if so,
we do not know the real losses now. Of major importance is the
Russian army's attempts to defeat the Chechens in the information
field, as was not the case during the previous campaign. Taking
all the past mistakes into account, the federal forces have
created a special information agency and introduced military
censorship on all reports from the Caucasus. This, despite the
fact that no war or martial law has been officially declared in
this country, neither are there other legal grounds for it.
As a result, no information is available; but, the
assessment of the developments and the people's possible response
can be predicted in advance. In this situation, even the reports
of losses can be viewed as a call to revenge, just like the
recent blasts which destroyed apartment blocks.
The government demonstrates an onslaught drive today, and
the reaction is different from what it was during the previous
war, despite even the official losses which are not so small
after all.

Question: All the more so since the West is trying to
interfere with our Chechen problems, which boosts the nationalist
and patriotic trends in Russia, doesn't it?
Answer: It is one of the key components of today's patriotic
boom. Although it is not formally aimed against the West, people
do feel they are being taught how to suck eggs. The government
makes use of these moods.

Question: Can't this grow into an attempt to become isolated
from the West by another "iron curtain"? In this case the further
reform can be given up for lost.
Answer: If we talk about the people's preferences, the trend
is exactly opposite here. Our latest surveys suggest that, for
the first time in the past 18 months, the share of those
advocating further reforming of the economy (31 percent) is
higher than of those who would like to halt and even reverse the
reform (27 percent).
What are the reasons? The improvement of the economic
situation, for the most part. According to the surveys, as many
as 59 percent now believe they have adjusted or can soon adjust
to the changes which have occurred over the past decade.

Question: Judging by the December 19 voting, the number of
those wishing to revise the results of privatization has
decreased. Does it mean that the very notion of property is now
respected more?
Answer: No clear and recognizable signs are in place here
yet. Essentially, of major parties only one has advocated such a
revision - the communists, who have their own electorate like
before. Fatherland-All Russia put forth a more weighted slogan
which had to do with correcting the results of an unlawful and
ineffective privatization. That bloc's leader Yevgeny Primakov
tried to fight only the class of oligarchs which emerged as a
result of privatization.
Judging by the survey results, people are not very keen
about those things. People at large do not advocate a return to
the past, but would like to somehow correct the lopsided and
ineffective reforms. And, most importantly, to improve their own
lives. Although today, no more than one-third of the Russians (a
little more than one-fourth, according to some estimates) think
they live below the poverty line, while only recently, they
numbered 40 percent and even more.
Of course, people are a little tired of the frequent
shake-ups - they want stability now. They also fear that things
might get worse.

Question: Do they pin much hope on the new head of the
Kremlin?
Answer: It's hard to tell. Much will depend on how
independent Vladimir Putin will prove. People will judge by his
immediate actions as acting president - in particular, by how
independently he will behave with regard to Boris Yeltsin's
former entourage. Seeing him only a puppet driven by those who
took advantage of the former president, as many believe, is one
thing. But if people see an independent decision-maker, they will
trust in him to the end.

Question: Other candidates will vie for the voters'
preferences. What prospects does this struggle have now that
Yeltsin handed over his powers?
Answer: I figure that certain elements of fighting will
become stronger. The election will be early, and all the
opponents will pool efforts. I suspect that the struggle will be
even more bitter, and the methods even worse than those we have
witnessed in the parliamentary campaign.

Question: Is it really possible to change the voters' mood
in such a short time? It is only a fortnight ago that they
demonstrated such mass support of the pro-Putin blocs.
Answer: Do not forget that Putin's popularity has also grown
in a very short time. Theoretically, it may be shaken as quickly.
The probability of such an outcome is not high, though. But
today, politicians need to think more of the nation than of their
own ambitions. In this situation, along with those fighting
"against" Putin, some will fight "for him," that is, to have
influence on him or his entourage. We'll see it all real soon.

*******

#10
ZYUGANOV: COMMUNISTS PLAN TO CREATE BROAD CENTER-LEFT COALITION

MOSCOW. Jan 16 (Interfax) - The Russian Communist Party is
considering the possibility of creating a broad center-left coalition of
political forces and is holding intensive consultations on this issue,
Russian Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov said in an interview with the
Mayak radio station.
He said, however, that it would be premature to name the
Communists' possible allies.
He said that the Kremlin and the government are mostly comprised of
representatives of the right forces and that the country will suffer if
the State Duma drifts rightward, too.
He confirmed that the Communist faction will support the nomination
of Gennady Seleznyov for Duma speaker. A preliminary analysis suggests
that Seleznyov has "a good chance" of being re-elected to this post, he
said.
He said that his own chances in the presidential elections set for
March 26 are good, too, adding that the results of the recent
parliamentary elections were falsified, according to the Communists'
sources, in Tatarstan, Dagestan, and in Samara, Saratov and Kursk
regions, all of which must be investigated.
He said that the present-day Communist Party has distanced itself
from its predecessor, the Soviet Communist party, which initiated large-
scale political reprisals in Russia. "Nothing reminiscent of the
political reprisals of the 1930s will ever be repeated," Zyuganov said.
He said that the Communist Party has "borrowed the best
achievements of the world's communist, socialist and social-democratic
parties," and that the present-day Russian communists come out for a
multi-party system, for the guarantees of human rights and liberties,
and against confrontation with West and East.
He said at the same time that Russia has not yet understood the
social-democratic idea, which can be seen from the results of the recent
parliamentary elections in which the social-democratic parties and
organizations won less than 1% of the votes. Therefore, there is no talk
now about changing the name of the party. "It's not the name but the
program that determines the essence of a party," Zyuganov said. "The
word 'communist' should not scare anyone. It means 'public'," said
Zyuganov.
Concerning the Chechen war, he said that "the army has got stuck in
Chechnya, suffering serious losses." "We must help the armed forces to
enhance the efficiency of the counter-terrorist operation, but,
concurrently, use all political levers for settling this conflict," said
Zyuganov.

*******

#11
Chechen refugees tell of hell in cellars
By Olga Petrova 

ON THE CHECHEN-INGUSH BORDER, Russia, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Refugees fleeing 
Russia's bombing of the Chechen capital Grozny spoke on Monday of a city full 
of wounded and hungry people cowering in cellars under relentless 
bombardment. 

More than 200,000 people have fled Russia's nearly four-month campaign to 
crush rebel Chechen guerrillas. Most live in makeshift accommodation in 
neighbouring Ingushetia. As many as 40,000 people are still holed up in 
Grozny unable to escape. 

``They aren't killing any bandits,'' said 49-year-old Zura from Grozny, 
standing at this border checkpoint on her injured leg. ``They're killing old 
men, women and children. And they keep on bombing -- day and night.'' 

``Do you know what difficulties we had getting out of the city? We had shells 
falling around us,'' she said. 

Russia has said it is trying to minimise civilian casualties in the southern 
rebel region. Acting President Vladimir Putin asked for the West's 
understanding when he met Council of Europe envoy Lord David Russell-Johnston 
in Moscow on Monday. 

Another woman, 40-year-old Nura, said she had spent the last few months 
sheltering in a cellar where she and her five-year-old daughter had developed 
asthma. 

``There are many people in cellars and many injured,'' she said with tears in 
her eyes. ``They won't let men out (of Chechnya) at all and they were bombing 
so heavily it was nearly impossible for anyone to leave. 

``Somehow we got together the money for a car and persuaded a driver to take 
us away. But my husband was not let out, even though he's an invalid,'' she 
said. 

Russia last week slapped an exit ban on all men aged between 10 and 60 from 
leaving Chechnya, fearing they might be guerrillas in disguise. But officials 
said on Friday the ban had been lifted and all refugees were now being let 
through. 

GROZNY A SMOULDERING RUIN 

Recent television footage from Grozny has shown a city destroyed by war. 
Crumbling apartment blocks flicker with flames and overlook deserted roads. 

Tamara Magomadova said she had left Grozny two weeks ago, taking her 
daughters with her but leaving behind the rest of her family. 

``My mother is swollen with hunger, but there's not even water there,'' she 
said. 

In the Ingush village of Nesterovka, 10 km (six miles) from the Chechen 
border, a large crowd of mainly women and children has been waiting for a 
week to receive humanitarian aid. 

Every other day, the refugees say, Russia's Emergencies Ministry gives each 
person half a loaf of bread. 

Alena Eskayeva, a Russian from Grozny, said: ``I don't know where I'll go. I 
gave my last earring away to feed my child. I have no idea what I'll do 
now.'' 

******

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