January 14, 2000    
This Date's Issues: 4034 4035 4036

Johnson's Russia List
#4036
14 January 2000
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. Washington Post editorial: Russia's Softhearted Killers.
2. AP: Russia Denies Casualty Reports.
3. Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Dmitry Kosyrev, HIGH TIME RUSSIA LAUNCHED FOREIGN POLICY OFFENSIVE.
4. Reuters: Putin, heading to election, makes pay rise pledge.
5. The Guardian (UK): Ian Tryanor, Bogged down in Chechnya, Russia returns to cold war rhetoric and the nuclear option. Decline and fall: Hard times for Russian soldiers near Grozny and the glory days of the Soviet empire.
6. Moscow Times: Murray Feshbach, An AIDS Catastrophe.
7. Financial Times (UK): John Thornhill, Primakov to turn his sights on Duma role.
8. Reuters: New security concept sees greater threat to Moscow.
9. Komsomolskaya Pravda: Olga Gerasimenko, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS.
10. PRESS BRIEFING BY SECURITY COUNCIL SECRETARY SERGEI IVANOV. (Re apartment bombings, information security, and multi-polar world)
11. Garfield Reynolds: Response to Cameron Sawyer on Chechnya.]

*******

#1
Washington Post
14 January 2000
Editorial
Russia's Softhearted Killers

RUSSIA'S GENERALS have figured out why their campaign to subdue Chechnya is
sputtering: Their forces have been too "tenderhearted." That is the
analysis of Gen. Viktor Kazantsev, Russia's military commander in the
Caucasus. No doubt he has in mind the indiscriminate shelling and bombing
of the capital, Grozny, which has left thousands of elderly and otherwise
vulnerable civilians cowering in basements. He also may be thinking of the
slash-and-burn tactics that have forced more than 200,000 people from their
homes and the repeated instances of Russian soldiers looting those homes
and shooting people who objected to such looting.

To combat this dangerous leniency, the Russian armed forces have formulated
new policies. These seem to include, in Chechnya, a resort to fuel-air
explosives -- particularly grim weapons against human beings -- and in
Moscow, new pressure on the media, which for the first time have been
expressing some skepticism about official (and obviously false) reports on
casualties, battlefield successes and other matters. It is "outrageous to
give air time to the terrorists," a senior official warned the Russian
media; "terrorist" refers to any Chechen the Russians would like to shoot.

The most alarming new policy, though, is the decision to round up all
Chechen males between the ages of 10 and 60. Many of them will be sent to
what the Russians call "filtration camps"; these are temporary prisons that
in the past, according to credible reports, have been venues for widespread
torture as Russians try to force detainees to admit that they are
terrorists. Every male Chechen, in other words, will be regarded as an
enemy, a view for which Russian history provides ample precedent: First the
czars, then Stalin killed hundreds of thousands of the Muslim people
because they did not welcome incorporation into Russia.

What this amounts to is a final admission that Russia is waging a war not
against a small number of bandits and terrorists, as it has insisted, but
against an entire people. President Clinton's jolly defense of Russia's
efforts to "liberate" Grozny notwithstanding, most Chechens do not want to
be part of Russia. In this, the region is distinct from most of the rest of
the country; it was never true that if Chechnya seceded, the rest of Russia
would fall apart. It is true, though, that the attempt to "pacify" Chechnya
will be long, bloody and quite possibly futile.

An understanding of the difficulties of the campaign explains Boris
Yeltsin's premature resignation from the presidency on New Year's Eve; he
wanted an early election so that his favorite, Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin, could win a five-year term before the early successes of the war
proved ephemeral. Now Russia's military effort is unraveling even faster
than the Kremlin seemed to expect. Mr. Putin remains heavily favored in the
March 26 election. But the United States and other governments, so cautious
and deferential until now, should urge him to shift from a policy of
extermination to one of negotiation. 

*******

#2
Russia Denies Casualty Reports
14 January 2000
By RUSLAN MUSAYEV

GROZNY, Russia (AP) - The Russian Defense Ministry today vehemently denied
media reports of growing casualties among Russian troops in Chechnya, as
federal aircraft bombarded suspected rebel encampments in the southern
mountains.

The Russian military has consistently reported a light death toll, but
independent analysts and soldiers on the ground have challenged the low
figures. The Interfax news agency, citing sources in the federal command
for Chechnya, said Thursday that 33 Russian soldiers had been killed over
the past 24 hours - the highest one-day toll yet reported by mainstream
Russian media.

The Defense Ministry's statement, released today, called media reports of
higher casualties ``conscious lies.''

Gen. Valery Manilov, first deputy chief of the Russian General Staff, said
the information ``misinforms the Russian and international public.''

``Moreover, it might alter the vector of support for the Russian troops'
actions. They are carrying out a hard military job in Chechnya,'' he was
quoted as saying by Interfax.

The ministry said that one soldier had been killed and 13 wounded on
Thursday, while 40 rebels were killed. The claim could not be confirmed,
but each side tends to exaggerate the other's losses.

Meanwhile, Russian soldiers manning a checkpoint in the neighboring
republic of Ingushetia started allowing Chechen men to cross into and out
of Chechnya today. For two days, the Russians prevented free passage of
males between the ages of 10 and 60 as part of an attempt to crack down on
suspected rebels.

Both Manilov, the General Staff officer, and Emergency Situations Minister
Sergei Shoigu stressed today that the travel ban was temporary, but neither
indicated it was already being lifted.

Russia had come under strong international criticism for the restriction,
which foreign governments and human rights advocates said would prevent
civilians from escaping the war zone.

Manilov said that federal troops would strengthen identity checks in
Russian-controlled areas to prevent any repeat of last weekend's rebel
counterattacks, and that the stepped-up measures would create tough
conditions for those ``inclined to take up arms, kill and rob at night.''

Also today, Russia accused the United States of supporting terrorism and
complicating the situation in the Caucasus by receiving an envoy from
Chechnya.

``We have more than once announced that this type of action implies support
for terrorists and separatists, and not only in Russia,'' Foreign Minister
Igor Ivanov said.

He was referring to a visit to the United States this week by Ilyas
Akhmadov, who acts as Chechnya's foreign minister. Russia says Akhmadov has
no right to hold such a title, and alleges that some foreign countries
confer undue legitimacy on the rebels by receiving their representatives.

The controversy came as Russian planes and helicopter gunships flew more
than 130 combat missions over the past 24 hours, the military said today.
They targeted suspected rebel positions in the capital Grozny, the southern
villages of Itum-Kale and Shatili, and the nearby Argun and Vedeno Gorges.

The air and artillery bombardment continued today. The Russian forces
killed up to 60 militants in an artillery barrage on the village of Khimoi,
near the southern rebel stronghold of Vedeno, said Lt. Col. Konstantin
Kukharenko, a military spokesman. The claim could not be independently
verified.

Poor coordination among the ministries' troops was blamed for last
weekend's surprise rebel counterattacks in Russian-controlled areas of
Chechnya, NTV said.

Russia claimed to have retaken control of the towns of Argun and Shali this
week after the attacks.

Rebels and Russian troops were fighting for positions in Grozny, and the
situation in the capital remained unchanged, with neither group making
advances. About 330 civilians have fled Grozny for the Russian-controlled
north and the neighboring republic of Ingushetia over the past two days,
the Emergency Situations Ministry said today.

Meanwhile, the Foreign Ministry announced that a delegation from the
parliamentary assembly of the Council of Europe, Europe's top human rights
watchdog, would arrive in Russia on Sunday for a four-day visit to Moscow,
Chechnya and surrounding regions.

Russia sent ground troops into Chechnya in late September after weeks of
airstrikes. The offensive is intended to wipe out Chechnya-based rebels who
twice invaded the neighboring republic of Dagestan last summer and who are
blamed for apartment bombings elsewhere in Russia that killed about 300
people.

*******

#3
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
January 14, 2000
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
HIGH TIME RUSSIA LAUNCHED FOREIGN POLICY OFFENSIVE
By Dmitry KOSYREV

Vladimir Putin will have to amend Russia's course
in relations with the West on Chechnya, for the good
old static 'tough stance' no longer works.

The acting president is in for a period of active foreign
policy moves. The protracted respite which the global leaders,
stunned by the New Year's changes in the Kremlin, have used to
review their strategies for Russia, is over.
The idea of pressurising Boris Yeltsin into firing the
'tough' premier and stopping the army operation in Chechnya in
exchange for resumed financial assistance is no longer on the
agenda. The new Russian leader will therefore spend much more
time on diplomacy than he would probably want to, in the next few
weeks. 
I remember that Putin has refused to go on a planned foreign
trip to say, in anger, that it was high time Russia stopped
solving its problems beyond its confines. But life prompts the
conclusion that Putin's diplomatic success, which does not
necessarily entail his personal participation in all talks, is a
matter of national survival.
The schedule of events to take place both in and outside
Russia is as follows. Ireland's foreign minister David Andrews
arrived in Moscow last night for negotiations on the foreign
ministerial level. Mr. Andrews also chairs the Council of
Ministers, a structure of the Council of Europe. 
He is closely followed by a delegation of the same outfit
with Lord Russel-Johnston, president of the CE Parliamentary
Assembly, in the lead. The delegation is going to Chechnya. 
Next come debates on Chechnya in Strasbourg, at a session of
the CE Parliamentary Assembly, and many other European hearings
on the same topic. 
After the Helsinki summit meeting, the European Council
threatened to review all relations with Russia because of
Chechnya, but did not specify the what and the how. One intention
was to do this in early 2000, something which is being done, but
in a new situation. The Europeans are facing a great big problem:
'evil Putin' stays, while the CE has had enough time in the weeks
after the Helsinki meet to realistically assess consequences of
curtailing ties with Russia. 
Some economic realities speak in Russia's favour. Thus,
stock exchange consultants advise buying Russian IOUs and
securities in expectation of their growth, an end of the
post-August '98 pause, and a new boom in the Russian
market--provided the developments are good. They do point out
that the financial burden of the Chechen operation will slow down
the growth of Russian stock--but no more. 
Indicatively, NATO's new Secretary General George Robertson
told NATO Review that he was willing to resume the bloc's
cooperation with Russia, which is instrumental for stability in
Europe. 
The same can be said of the American aspect. State
Department spokesman James Rubin said yesterday that the US was
unwilling to mediate between Moscow and Grozny and suggested that
Europeans could do it, not that it is feasible at this time.
Mr. Rubin simply asked Moscow to explain why the Russian
military intend to detain all Chechen males from 10 to 60 pending
investigation of their ties with the rebels. Incidentally, when
in the wake of the conflict in Abkhazia the Russian military,
acting at the request of Georgia, would not let Abkhazs from 16
to 60 cross the border, the State Department kept mum. 
In any case, Washington is not suggesting new initiatives
vis-a-vis Moscow--pending arrival here of Madeleine Albright for
a 'Mideastern conference' at the end of the month when one can
expect some harsh words to be said. 
Putin also plans trips to Italy and China. Leaving bilateral
problems aside, both visits could promote a compromise solution
for relations with the West on the Chechen issue. China, in
particular, could traditionally strengthen Moscow's hand by
indicating that Russia is not at loggerheads with the whole
world, but rather with a part of it. 
One may expect that both the Europeans and Americans would
prefer to be past the Chechen episode or to at least take a break
and stabilise ties with Russia before its new face shows clearly.
But retreating from the demands made of Moscow in Helsinki means
losing face. The West's tough stance has proven to be
counter-productive, but there is no basis for a 'milder' stance:
the West expects Moscow to make the first step. 
The situation is very similar in the case of Putin: Russia's
static tough, defensive stance at negotiations with Europe and
the West has been working but is no longer promising. An
offensive stance could not only ameliorate the situation and even
bring about a breakthrough. 
The key to everything is the struggle for the public opinion
in the West on the matter of who are the terrorists, killers of
peaceful civilians and practitioners of genocide in the Chechen
conflict. 
The Russian press has been carrying reports of the Russian
military finding schools of terrorists and explosion experts in
Chechnya's liberated parts, of the Afghan connection in Chechnya
(with bin Laden included), of mass burials of Russians in
Chechnya, of releasing hostages from Chechen dungeons... The
media can be more insistent in transmitting this information to
foreign public, the UN, the International Tribunal in The Hague
and other agencies.
The same goes for refugees from Chechnya: hundreds of
thousands of Russians (and Chechens, too) have fled from
Maskhadov's criminal state in the past few years. Why should
Moscow repeat the mistake of Slobodan Milosevic who accepted in
Yugoslavia the hundreds of thousands of Serbian refugees forced
by the Albanian 'liberation fighters' from Kosovo, and failed to
bring the fact home to the European public?
The Council of Europe's General Secretary Walter Schwimmer,
for one, demands Moscow's report on human rights in Chechnya. Why
not provide a report to him, containing the above facts, for
starters?
Kofi Annan's visit to Moscow in late January at the
invitation of the Russian side, announced yesterday, can well be
instrumental in this connection. It provides an opportunity of
finding a common language to speak on the Chechen issue with the
top officer of an organisation concerned over the restoration of
its image after its flop in Yugoslavia. 
In this light, Mr. Annan's statement--to the effect that he
goes to two countries, Russia and Indonesia, where the flames of
ethnic conflicts are the hottest in the world--is conspicuous. It
does not matter that the events in Chechnya are announced to
constitute an 'ethnic conflict'--we see them otherwise. 
Importantly, Indonesia is mentioned because the UN tried to
live up to its Charter in the events in East Timore this past
fall. Russia backed this position. This is important for Russia
as a post-Yugoslavia precedent.

*******

#4
Putin, heading to election, makes pay rise pledge
By Patrick Lannin

MOSCOW, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Acting President Vladimir Putin, eyeing a March
election for which he is the runaway favourite, pledged more pay for
Russia's impoverished state sector workers on Friday and urged improvements
to the education system. 

Preparations for the election, called after Boris Yeltsin's shock New
Year's Eve resignation, continued apace as the Central Election Commission
formally registered four organisations which have proposed candidates. 

Putin has retained a wide lead over his nearest rival for the election,
Communist leader Gennady Zvuganov, and little seems to stand in his way. 

Even slight setbacks earlier this week in the Chechen war, the basis of
Putin's huge popularity, have failed to hurt the acting president's ratings. 

Turning to the state sector, Putin pledged at a meeting of education
workers that wages for government employees would rise. They are among the
lowest paid in Russia, with even doctors and teachers earning as little as
$50 a month. 

``We do not have a right to give groundless promises, especially during a
pre-election campaign,'' Putin told a national conference of education
workers in the Kremlin. 

``But I want to tell you the government plans to increase wages for public
employees by 1.2 times as of April 1,'' he said. 

``It is a little, we will do it. It is a first step, I repeat it is only a
first step,'' he said. 

Putin said more care should be taken to ensure that Russian youth was
educated properly and prevented from falling into drug addiction and
criminality. He reminded his audience that 80 percent of drug addicts were
aged below 30. 

``I bow before your talent, before your spirit of selfless devotion. I want
to say a huge thank you,'' he told the workers. 

IMF TO ARRIVE EARLY 

The pay rise for public employees is one of several measures Putin has
announced to raise the living standards of Russians, roughly one third of
whom live below the poverty line. 

Putin has already ordered the government to review and increase pensions
quarterly to make up for inflation. Last month he ordered a one-time payout
of 50 roubles for every pensioner. 

Putin has not made clear where the funds would come from to fund the new
spending measures in a year when the government has stressed that the
budget is very tight. 

Such spending pledges are likely to come under the scrutiny of the
International Monetary Fund as it mulls whether to renew funding for Russia. 

The Finance Ministry told Reuters a mission from the Fund was expected in
Moscow on January 23 to discuss Russia's economic policy for 2000. The
mission had originally been expected in February. 

DETAILS REVEALED OF NEW SECURITY STRATEGY 

Russia has long been waiting for a second $640 million tranche of a $4.5
billion IMF loan agreed last July. The IMF has postponed disbursement
citing lack of structural reforms in Russia, which needs new cash to repay
previous IMF loans. 

Putin's lack of a clear economic plan is one of the few areas where he has
been criticised and the economic sections of a new national security
concept, published for the first time in a Russian newspaper, shed little
light on his ideas. 

The concept, signed by Putin on January 6, stressed that the role of the
state had to be reinforced in running the economy, but also said more
reforms were needed. 

The rest of the concept, which its designers have said was radically worked
from a 1997 version, made clear Moscow has reduced the nuclear threshold to
counter what it sees as a growing military threat. 

It said Russia remained important but that several states were trying to
weaken and marginalise it. Moscow's main security task was to deter any
attacks, nuclear or conventional, against Russia and its allies, it added. 

*******

#5
The Guardian (UK)
14 January 2000
[for personal use only]
Bogged down in Chechnya, Russia returns to cold war rhetoric and the nuclear 
option 
Decline and fall: Hard times for Russian soldiers near Grozny and the glory 
days of the Soviet empire
Ian Traynor in Moscow 

Wading through a field of mud and ice north of the Chechen capital, Grozny, a 
few weeks ago, scratching together fragments of wood to build a fire against 
the freezing cold , Andrei put a brave face on the wretched lot of the 
Russian conscript. 

"Everything's normal... We're getting 810 roubles [£20] extra a day for being 
here," shrugged the 30-year-old from Rostov, a soldier in the 100,000-strong 
Russian army struggling to tame Chechnya. 

But Igor, a young officer, was less timid about speaking his mind. "Just look 
at these guys, look at their kit, look at their uniforms, look where they're 
sleeping. I bet your armies in the west don't have to put up with this. How 
much does a soldier or a policeman earn in Britain?" he asked. 

It is one of the first questions a Russian soldier asks an outsider in 
Chechnya. No wonder, given the decay and demoralisation of the once mighty 
Red Army. Andrei has not seen any of his Chechnya bonuses yet, and with the 
military's unpaid wages bill running into billions of roubles, it is doubtful 
whether he ever will. 

After speaking to Andrei and Igor, I boarded a creaking Russian armoured 
personnel carrier which broke down half a dozen times. It seemed an 
appropriate metaphor for the mishap-prone Russian campaign in the Caucasus. 
"The Russians are stalled," said Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow military 
analyst. "They're losing the war. The Russian troops are not good enough. The 
commanders are making stupid tactical mistakes." 

But Chechnya is only the most dramatic symptom of the degradation of the 
Russian military machine. The inability to engage in proper structural reform 
in the post-communist decade means that Russia is more than ever dependent on 
its vast nuclear arsenal. 

Nuclear options

Vladimir Putin, the prime minister of Russia and now its acting president, 
publishes his new national security strategy today, after finalising its 
details on Monday. He declares that the combat readiness of the conventional 
forces is "critically low", while broadening the criteria for when Russia 
would be prepared to use nuclear weapons. 

The vast nuclear arsenal stretches to 750 intercontinental ballistic missiles 
equipped with 3,500 nuclear warheads, 13 submarines that can boast 232 
sea-launched nuclear missiles, 50 Tu-95 "Bear" bomber aircraft, and, under an 
aircraft-for-debt deal with Ukraine, 12 Tu-160 "Blackjack" bombers. 

The end of the Soviet Union ushered in one long spell of humiliation for the 
Russian military. After the withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989, there 
followed the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact in 1990 and the first bungled war 
against the Chechens in 1994-96. It was made all the more miserable by 
watching Nato move into eastern Europe and, most of all, wage war against 
Slobodan Milosevic's Serbia against Russian protests. 

The Soviet Union could once field a force of 5m, now Russia can barely 
maintain its largely conscript army of 1.2m. Its military is currently being 
humiliated for the second time in five years in Chechnya, which had a pre-war 
population of 860,000. 

"Our country Russia was a great, powerful, strong state and it is clear that 
this is not possible if we do not have strong armed forces, powerful armed 
forces," Mr Putin proclaimed on Tuesday, setting himself up as the man who 
will stop the rot. 

It is not clear how he will manage to do this. He has promised to raise 
defence spending by 57% and announced an extra £60m for the war in Chechnya 
on top of an annual defence budget of £3bn. 

But he seems aware that broader social and economic troubles lie behind the 
decline of the military. Suicide and bullying are rife in the army, with 
human rights organisations reporting 1,000 suicides a year and some 4,000 
murders. Amnesty International has likened army life in Russia to penal 
servitude, describing the military as a "gulag-style institution". 

Training, maintenance, and combat readiness are grossly inadequate. Air force 
pilots last year enjoyed 21-24 hours of test flights, a fraction of the Nato 
norm. 

"The degradation in the past few years has been accelerating, the situation 
is getting much worse," said Sergei Sorkut, a military affairs expert. 

Almost 300 soldiers serving as peacekeepers in the Nato-run force in Kosovo 
have been sent home because of drunkenness, drug-taking, indiscipline and 
"criminal records and inadequate professional training". The Russian 
commander in Kosovo has been ordered by the general staff to deliver a report 
on the fitness of his troops for service abroad. 

And if morale is poor on the ground, the infighting at the top of the 
military ranks is equally debilitating. 

Demoralised

Russia's progress towards creating a professional, well-equipped military 
capable of prosecuting a short, sharp campaign is non-existent, despite Boris 
Yeltsin's declaration several years ago that by 2000 such a force would be 
created. 

The defence minister, Marshal Igor Sergeyev, the fourth officer to hold the 
post in the 1990s, is locked in a bitter feud with General Anatoly Kvashnin, 
the hawk who heads the general staff. Gen Kvash nin commanded and lost the 
last Chechen war but sees the current exercise as an opportunity to grab more 
resources. 

Marshal Sergeyev this week threw his support behind a plan for a new, 
integrated command of the elite nuclear forces - the strategic rocket forces, 
the nuclear submarine fleet, and strategic air command. He claims that this 
would ensure that "Russia will remain a nuclear power without losing its 
conventional forces". But Gen Kvashnin and the general staff oppose the plan 
because if would deprive them of their coordinating role between these 
crucial commands. 

"Kvashnin is running the Russian army into the ground," says Mr Felgenhauer. 
"The professionals in the army hate him and he has many enemies. It's a 
long-running feud between Kvashnin and Sergeyev." 

However, Marshal Sergeyev also has powerful enemies in the navy and air 
force, who have been starved of funds in favour of his pet project, the 
Topol-M, a new generation of high-precision inter-continental ballistic 
missiles. Twenty of these have already been produced in Saratov over the past 
three years and they are now coming off the production line at the rate of 10 
a year. 

The generals are also fighting for Mr Putin's ear. He has just promised the 
navy and air force a bigger share of the cake, suggesting that Gen Kvashnin 
may be winning this battle. 

Presidential decree No 24, which lowers the threshold at which Russia will 
resort to nuclear weapons and formally reintroduces the rhetoric of hostility 
with the west, is the first move by Mr Putin to try to stem the military's 
decline. 

A previous strategy from December 1997 had concluded that there was no threat 
of aggression and declared that the military burden was too much to bear. 

"There is a need to increase the state's military potential," the new Putin 
document states. "The level and the scale of the threats in the military 
sphere are rising." 

*******

#6
Moscow Times
January 14, 2000 
An AIDS Catastrophe 
By Murray Feshbach 
Dr. Murray Feshbach is a professor of demography at Georgetown University. He 
contributed this comment to The Moscow Times. 

Dr. Vadim Pokrovsky, the leading Russian epidemiologist, recently provided us 
with almost apocalyptic projections of the prevalence of AIDS within the next 
five years, as well as the resulting deaths from AIDS five years after that 
point. 

At a press conference on World AIDS Day on Dec. 11, 1999, Pokrovsky projected 
10 percent of the population of Russia would have HIV, the virus that causes 
AIDS, in the year 2005. 

Assuming that the population will be about 140 million (at a rate of loss of 
about 800,000 per year from a base figure of 146.5 million in mid-1999), this 
would easily calculate to a number of 14 million cases. 

As recently as 1996, at least one case of HIV was reported in some 30 regions 
of the country, and now all 89 regions have at least one official case with 
many more reported each year. The Moscow area has taken the lead with some 
6,500 cases over the Kaliningrad, Krasnodar, Tver, Nizhny Novgorod, Irkutsk 
and Saratov oblasts as the region reporting the most HIV cases. 

Moreover, at the same press conference, Pokrovsky said that these patients - 
mostly 15- to 29-year-olds - will have died off in large part by the year 
2010. A terrible set of figures! Was this just hyperbole? Is he desperate for 
funding? Was he way off base? 

The answer is a vague yes and no. Only a few days after the initial Ministry 
press conference, Moskovsky Komsomolets cited Pokrovsky as giving a projected 
number of HIV patients in the year 2005: While less than my crudely estimated 
numbers of 14 million, his explicit projection of 10 million is still 
appalling. 

As with other statistics, we have to remember - as Pokrovsky and others 
invariably remind us - that the reported numbers of HIV/AIDS patients is 
eight to 10 times below the "real" number. Thus, the current reported 
prevalence number of 25,000 would yield something in the order of 200,000 
people in Russia with the illness. 

If the exponential growth that took place in Moscow city and oblast in the 
past year is correct - a tenfold increase compared to the same period the 
year before - then a number like 10 million cases in 2005 might not be far 
off. But we must not forget that the Moscow increase is largely among the 15- 
to 29-year-olds - the young, prime working age, prime military age and prime 
family formation group. 

Last month's issue of Meditsinskaya Gazeta reported that only 10 percent of 
newborn children are born without health problems. The HIV/AIDS explosion 
adds to the stress of the population already suffering from problems 
associated with heart and cancer rates hardly abating, with alcohol and 
tobacco consumption at epidemic levels, with the fertility rate declining to 
an incredibly low level of only 1.24 children per woman over her fertile life 
of 15 to 44 years of age. This is 40 percent below the replacement level of 
2.1, assuming mortality stays constant, meaning that the value and health of 
each child at the margin becomes crucial. With 90 percent of Russia's 
children in marginal health, the outlook is bleak. 

We are also witnessing in Russia a very large increase in hard drug abuse, 
prostitution and sexually transmitted diseases, especially syphilis. There 
were 450,000 new cases of syphilis reported last year for Russia's population 
of 146 million (compared with 8,000 in the United States, with its population 
of about 274 million). These people stand a high risk of contracting HIV/AIDS 
due to risky sexual behavior. They could also be infected by contaminated 
syringes if they share IV drugs. 

Educational programs about AIDS and HIV are useful but will take time to 
bring about a change in behavior. As in 1998, a grand total of about $75,000 
was allocated in the Russian federal budget for AIDS prevention programs -not 
including treatment. In 1999, only two-thirds of the original 35 million 
rubles (or about $800,000) allocated were spent on treatment and on public 
awareness campaigns. 

The transition from HIV status to AIDS illness and death may take three to 
eight years. Western AZT-style drugs are designed to lengthen this 
transition. The drugs are expensive, but Russians have developed a drug 
called phosphazide, an apparent substitute to AZT. However, commenting on 
phosphazide, Dr. Mark Wainberg, president of the International Aids Society, 
said in The Moscow Times that this new medicine is efficacious only in 
combination with the remainder of the standard expensive drug cocktail that 
is standard in the West. 

If, according to Pokrovsky, it costs some $9,000 to $22,000 per patient for 
medications for HIV patients, then the delay in developing AIDS may not be 
sufficient to save any lives as medication prices are unlikely to fall within 
reach of the majority of Russian patients. 

And the skyrocketing number of deaths from AIDS by the year 2010 will only 
accelerate the decline in the overall population of Russia, closer to my 
projection of 80 million to 100 million by the year 2050. 

If Pokrovsky is even close to his worst case scenario estimate of up to 10 
million deaths from AIDS alone, then the Russian Statistics Agency, which 
posts its own worst projection by 2015 as 130 million, may have to revise its 
overall population projections downward as well. 

*******

#7
Financial Times (UK)
14 January 2000
[for personal use only]
Primakov to turn his sights on Duma role 
By John Thornhill in Moscow

Much of Russia's political and business elite rallied around Vladimir Putin 
on Thursday as the acting president formally declared he would contest 
presidential elections in March.

Mr Putin's chances of clinching the presidency were boosted when it emerged 
that Yevgeny Primakov, the popular former prime minister, had started angling 
to become speaker of the Duma, the lower house of parliament, and was 
therefore likely to pull out of the presidential race.

A highly experienced politician who could draw support from across the 
political spectrum, Mr Primakov is widely considered to be Mr Putin's most 
dangerous potential rival. But even some of Mr Primakov's closest supporters 
have abandoned him in favour of Mr Putin and have been urging the 70-year-old 
former premier not to stand.

Mikhail Gorbachev, the last Soviet president, strongly backed his former 
Politburo colleague, however. "Primakov today is best prepared for work in 
the presidential post," he said. But Mr Gorbachev, who is held responsible 
for the collapse of the Soviet Union, carries little weight in domestic 
politics.

Speaking in his home city, St Petersburg, Mr Putin said he accepted his 
nomination as a candidate with "satisfaction and gratitude". He said: "I want 
the campaign to be conducted in a dignified manner, without mud- slinging, 
without publication of compromising materials. The character of the campaign 
should serve to consolidate, not divide, society."

Opinion polls suggest Mr Putin's support has climbed to 55 per cent, raising 
the possibility that he might win outright in the first round of voting on 
March 26. Even setbacks in Moscow's military campaign against separatist 
Chechnya do not appear to have seriously dented his authority.

Mr Putin's main challengers will be Gennady Zyuganov, the Communist party 
leader, Grigory Yavlinsky, the leader of the liberal Yabloko movement, and 
Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the ultra-nationalist. However, none of these is 
thought to have a real chance.

Konstantin Titov, the liberal governor of the central region of Samara, who 
is also considering a bid, said the elections could hardly be called 
democratic. He said: "Today we have a variant of Communist elections. They 
have given us a candidate and our task is only to turn out to the polling 
station and vote in an organised way."

******

#8
New security concept sees greater threat to Moscow
By Martin Nesirky

MOSCOW, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Russia published its radically reshaped national
security concept on Friday and the document made clear it has reduced the
threshold for using nuclear weapons, to counter what it sees as a growing
military threat. 

It envisages the potential use of its vast nuclear arsenal ``to repel armed
aggression.'' 

Under the previous national security doctrine published in 1997 Russia
reserved the right to use nuclear weapons only if its very existence was
threatened. 

Acting President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on January 6 covering the
new concept setting out Russia's views on its strategic interests and
establishing priorities for protecting them. 

Few details were made available at the time, but officials said it was a
sweeping rewrite of the 1997 security strategy to focus more on fighting
terrorism and organised crime. The 21-page document was published on Friday
in the weekly military newspaper Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye. 

The document, which is divided into four sections and fills two broadsheet
pages, says Russia remained important but ``a number of states'' were
trying to weaken and marginalise it. 

``The level and scale of threats in the military sphere is growing,'' the
concept says. 

It says Moscow's main security task is to deter any attacks, nuclear or
conventional, against Russia and its allies. 

``The Russian Federation considers it possible to use military force to
guarantee its national security according to the following principles: 

``The use of all forces and equipment at its disposal, including nuclear
weapons, if it has to repel armed aggression if all other means of
resolving the crisis have been exhausted or proved ineffective,'' the
concept says. 

This compared with the previous concept published in 1997 which said Russia
reserved the right to use nuclear weapons only if its very existence was
threatened. 

The other principle stated under the new concept was the use of force to
quell internal unrest. 

The document also said Russia could guarantee its national interests only
if its economy was in good shape. 

``For that reason, Russia's national interests in this sphere are
crucial,'' it said. The Russian economy has been in deep trouble since a
financial crisis in August 1998. 

The document said Russia would pay more attention to fighting terrorism,
the drugs trade and organised crime. 

It said there were two main, opposing trends in world affairs. Moscow's
favoured option was for a ``multi-polar'' world with a range of regional
powers. The document said the other trend was for a ``unipolar'' world
dominated by the United States. 

******

#9
Komsomolskaya Pravda
January 13, 2000
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
By Olga GERASIMENKO

Following below is a list of ten most widely-asked
questions dealing with the current presidential election race.

1. Possible election-rigging methods (on the part of
election-commission members) were often discussed in the
course of the State-Duma election race. Presidential elections
are now approaching. On whom do fair elections depend? And how
are such people selected?
Russian legislation has it that all election commissions
shall be established by local legislatures, e.g. Dumas and
city councils. Theoretically speaking, anyone can become a
member of such commissions. However, this requires an active
position in life, to say the least. All prospective
election-commission members are selected on the basis of
proposals being submitted by election blocs, voters' meetings
at residential areas, companies, as well as educational
establishments. Local governments also have the right to
suggest their own candidates. However, the law states
expressly that civil officers can't account for more than 33
percent of any particular election commission's line-up.
Consequently, any election commission, the Central
Election Commission included, constitutes a veritable
political mosaic from the very outset. Frankly speaking, this
seems to be the best way to avoid any unfair vote-counting
practices.
All territorial election commissions shall be established
over the February 2-9 period in line with the Central Election
Commission's schedule.

2. When will we learn about the exact number of
presidential contenders?
The appropriate documents for registering each candidate
shall be submitted to the Central Election Commission by 6.00
p.m. over the January 18 -- February 13 period. The Central
Election Commission shall then have eight days for checking
such documents. Therefore we are going to learn the exact
number of candidates, who will be listed in the ballot, by the
evening of February 22. And the presidential campaign will
thus be officially launched.

3. What does it take to register a prospective candidate?
First of all, such candidates must be nominated by the
people in line with the law. This can be done by a pressure
group, which shall number at least 100 people, by a party, or
by an election bloc. However, the Central Election Commission
is going to find out about the honesty of their intentions
during four consecutive days. That time period will be used
for examining the possible registration of any specific
pressure group or bloc, and to ascertain that such groups and
blocs are authentic, and that they don't contain any "dead
souls" whatsoever. At least eight pressure groups, which have
nominated the following presidential candidates -- Putin;
Yavlinsky; Zyuganov; Zhirinovsky; Lev Ubozhko; Aman Tuleyev; a
labor-union leader named Nazeikin, who was nominated by a
group of unemployed people; and even Yuri Skuratov, exist.
However, the latter, who hasn't yet consented to his
nomination, still continues to think about this proposition.

4. When will signature-collection campaigns get underway?
Besides, how many signatures must be collected?
The Central Election Commission had demanded that all
candidates collect 1 million signatures each during previous
presidential elections. By the way, one could simultaneously
sign in support of all candidates, subsequently voting for
just one contender. Owing to the fact that early presidential
elections will be organized, and the current election campaign
has been shortened, each candidate shall have to collect
500,000 signatures in different Russian regions. After that,
prospective candidates shall be registered, provided that no
violations exist in the given field.

5. What candidates have no right to combine their
election campaign with their official positions, taking a
vacation during elections? What does the law say on this
score?
The list of such registered candidates includes civil
officers, as well as municipal officials, or journalists, e.g.
mass-media staffers.

6. Can election blocs subsequently recall their own
candidates?
Yes, they can do this prior to March 21. Incidentally,
this is seen as the last deadline enabling any candidate to
quit the election race.

7. When can we expect all that boring promo footage to
appear at local mass-media bodies and on TV channels?
Russian newspapers will start printing such political
advertisements February 25, with local TV channels airing
their own promo footage March 3, or March 13, provided that
less than ten presidential candidates are registered.

8. When will election ballots be printed?
Not later than March 6. Such ballots will be received by
territorial election commissions March 10.

9. When can official election returns be published?
Such nationwide election returns shall be published not
later than March 31; however, final election results shall be
established prior to April 6 in line with the Central Election
Commission's schedule.

10. In what case can the second election round be
appointed?
The second election round shall be appointed, in case
none of the contenders manages to collect 50 percent of all
votes, plus one vote. This is virtually impossible because
several contenders will, evidently, run for president,
stealing votes as a result. Small wonder, Alexander Veshnyakov
in charge of the Central Election Commission has said the
other day that his agency is preparing for the second election
round, due to take place April 16. Consequently, it will be
easier to single out the winner, who will have to collect a
simple majority of all votes.

*******

#10
Excerpt
PRESS BRIEFING BY SECURITY COUNCIL SECRETARY SERGEI IVANOV
ROSINFORMTSENTR,JANUARY 12, 2000
SOURCE: FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE

Now a couple of words about terrorism and the explosions in
Moscow, Buinaksk and Volgodonsk. Our special services were aware
from the beginning that explosives were prepared in that region and
the main executors came from Chechnya. They were not necessarily
ethnic Chechens, but they had been trained there. And the
explosives were prepared in Chechnya too. Then they were delivered
to designated regions and terrorist acts were carried out.

The special services knew about it for a long time but it was
only recently that final proof of that was provided. You know that
a base was discovered in Urus-Martan. Our special services knew
about the existence of that base, but now the opportunity presented
itself to get there. Because of the vigorous actions of our army
the militants didn't manage to take everything out of these bases.

They left behind explosives that were identical to the ones used in
the explosions. 

And before we make a break for a five-minute video which we
would like to show you I want to say that there is no proof that
the explosions in Russia were staged by international terrorists.
Well, the same explosives consisting of ammonium nitrate were used
in early 1998 in Tashkent when an attempt was made on the life of
the president of Uzbekistan. 

So, they were used not only in Moscow, but also in Uzbekistan.
I think this is an eloquent fact. With your permission I will show
you the video. (Video is shown).

Thank you. There is nothing to comment on. I would just like
to say one thing. This film proves the indisputable link of the
explosions to Chechnya. The reason I am stressing this is that over
a certain period a number of Western and indeed Russian media have
mooted a crazy suggestion that the explosions in Moscow were staged
by Moscow itself. But I think such films as you have now seen put
paid to such a crazy and implausible theory....

Q: You mentioned "information security" and you promised to
explain what you mean by it. And my second question is about
foreign policy. Putin has promised to explain the concept of a
multi-polar world. And what will be the new Russian security
concept? Will there be any changes?

Ivanov: You mean the overall security concept or information
security? I hope that in the foreseeable future there will be no
changes in the overall security concept. A concept is not a kind of
document that is reviewed every day. We have just approved a
concept of national security and I do not expect dramatic changes. 

Now about information security. We are just aware of the
problem. It exists in Kosovo, it exists in Chechnya and we see
various other manifestations of the problem, including electoral
campaigning. Nobody is going to revive the Agitprop, or special
sections of the Central Committee of the Communist Party. That is
nonsense. We have freedom of expression, we support it and the
Security Council will do all it can to preserve it because I am
sure that freedom of expression is in the interests of the country.

But we face the problems which I have already mentioned. For
example, when combating terrorism, it is outrageous to give air
time to terrorists. And I think that problem merits being viewed
from that angle. You are journalists and you know that one can
write an article with allegations that no court ruling can prove or
disprove. And there are articles that -- I hate to use the word
"commissioned", you understand what I mean. Nobody is going to
restrict the right of the media to present its point of view, but
there must be a sense of civic responsibility to those who read it
in terms of facts. If a viewpoint is expressed, it must be
supported with facts.

If a newspaper says that explosions in Moscow were staged by
the Federal Security Service and fails to provide a single item of
evidence -- that's one situation. If facts are reported, we will
look into them closely. But there are no facts, there are just
threats. 

This is my view of information security. It also involves the
Internet, the problem of computer safety. It is not just
information security that has to do with the printed and electronic
media. It is a much broader problem. It includes the system of
information protection, satellite communications and much else.

Now about the multi-polar world. I am an adherent of the
multi-polar world concept. The overall concept is clear. An
overwhelming majority of the world's states reject hegemonism on
the part of any one state. The interests of different countries are
so different that to apply a common yardstick and rules of the game
and criteria regarding human rights, religion and so on to the
Western, Anglo-Saxon mentality and to islands in the Pacific or to
Central Asia is simply unrealistic. It has never been the case and
it never will be.

Yes, there should be common civilized rules of the game, rules
that are recognized by all the states. That is the United Nations
is for and similar organizations. It means that international
cooperation should grow and not weaken. There can be no question of
Russian isolation. That path of development leads into a dead end. 

But these principles should be invested with concrete
substance. And there, everything depends on Russia, especially its
economic state. Very many countries want to trade with us. Many
countries are even poorer than Russia and they want us to resume
the old system of supplies with deferred payments. Of course,
giving away raw materials and weapons as we did in the Soviet times
is out of the question. But economics should be tied in with
politics. This should be done. All the developed countries do it
when they offer economic benefits in exchange for political and
other concessions. This is common world practice and we are not
inventing anything. This is how I can respond to your question.

*******

#11
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 
From: Garfield Reynolds <garfield@imedia.ru> 
Subject: Response to Cameron Sawyer on Chechnya

a little reply:
re: Cameron Sawyer, 4032 on MT/Victory Unraveling

Chechens are radically different to Russians, ethnically and culturally. It is
specious to talk of Chechnya being inside Russia's historical borders when
those
borders have changed so often, usually through conquest or revolution, over
the
last 200 years -- including of course the 19th century Great Caucasus War.

This does not mean that I necessarily think that a seperate Chechen state is a
good, or even a workable idea. But then, the bloody, brutal first Chechen war
drove the Chechens away from Russia. What I am 100 percent sure of is that the
second Chechen war is as misguided as the first one. Nothing short of genocide
can create a Chechnya that is content to be part of Russia in the short term.
And the only real way forward has to be through negotiations where the
Russians
recognize that the Chechens have a right to express their own concerns.

Russia's use of force in Chechnya is illegitimate because it violates the
treaty
it signed with Chechnya in 1997 when it renounced the use of force for
resolving disputes.

As for the Vietnam reference, it is apt. This war pits Russia -- with
overwhelming conventional advantages, including complete air superiority,
trying
to pacify a region through misguided attempts to take territory -- against
lightly armed, massively determined guerillas who cannot be defeated by the
pursuit of conventional war aims. It is also degrading Russian society as
surely
as Vietnam and Afghanistan degraded the U.S. and Soviet societies of their
time.

Garfield Reynolds
Business Editor
The Moscow Times

******

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