December 22, 1999    
This Date's Issues:• 3701  • 3702  3703

Johnson's Russia List
#3703
22 December 1999
davidjohnson@erols.com


[Note from David Johnson:
1. AFP: Putin's run at presidency faces Duma pitfalls: analysts.
2. Itar-Tass: Old Duma to Gather for Its Last Session on Friday.
3. Reuters: Russian media say Grozny mission starts soon.
4. Jamestown Foundation Monitor: NEARLY COMPLETED VOTE COUNT: 
LEFT STRONGER THAN RIGHT?
5. Interfax: BEREZOVSKY PRIORITIZES CONSOLIDATION OF POWER.
6. Interfax: RUSSIAN INFORMATION WARS WILL END SOON - BEREZOVSKY.
7. Izvestia: Georgy Bovt, MASTER OF CEREMONIES. Yeltsin May Feel Assured 
of a Place in History.
8. New York Times: Thomas Friedman, A Coat of Many Colors. (Views of 
Leon Aron)
9. Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Sergei Abakumov, 'December 19 Syndrome' and 
Future of Civil Society in Russia.
10. Los Angeles Times: Richard Paddock, In Russia, Democracy Yields a 
Motley Crowd of Deputies. 
11.The Russia Journal: Ekaterina Larina, Strategists develop art of 
dirty campaign. Few parties come out unscathed.
12. Financial Times (UK): John Thornill, Praises for Stalin spark dispute.
13. AFP: Russia and US remain far apart on nuclear shield row: report.] 


*******


#1
Putin's run at presidency faces Duma pitfalls: analysts


MOSCOW, Dec 22 (AFP) - 
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's run at the Russian presidency risks getting 
derailed should the new multi-faceted parliament fail to unite behind his 
government, analysts said Wednesday.


Putin, 47, emerged as the clear favorite to succeed President Boris Yeltsin 
next summer after the new-born pro-government Unity bloc stunned most by 
nearly edging out the Communist Party for first place in the State Duma race.


Yeltsin re-affirmed his support for Putin as the favored presidential 
successor Wednesday by calling the result "our mutual victory."


Chief Putin rival Fatherland All-Russia (OVR) meanwhile finished a distant 
third. Its members heatedly debated Wednesday if the group should now break 
up and co-leaders Yevgeny Primakov and Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov each go 
their own way.


"I no longer see any serious presidential opponents to Putin, unless Putin 
himself makes a load of mistakes," said Kremlin insider and controversial 
tycoon Boris Berezovsky.


The Russian premier's political future has long been tied to the progress of 
federal forces on the battle fields of breakaway Chechnya, a war for which 
Putin has taken direct responsibility.


"Putin won the people's trust Sunday as commander-in-chief of the Chechen 
campaign," said Echo Moscow news editor Alexei Venediktov.


However analysts also point out that Putin could easily stumble in his run at 
the Kremlin should rival Duma factions fail to unite behind the government, 
instead using the podium floor to each push their own political agendas.


"It is important that everyone is comfortable with Putin, that no one in the 
Duma fears the future should he become president," said economist Christopher 
Granville of the Fleming UCB investment bank.


"He has to find the middle ground -- to be different from Communists but not 
rock the boat. At the same time, he cannot afford to launch radical reforms 
which are painful, and -- this is more important -- contradict the interests 
of people linked to the Kremlin."


Analysts suggest that any serious economic reforms will only come after the 
Kremlin is assured that a smooth transition of power from the current regime 
to the next is possible.


The new Duma, while more government friendly than ever before, also holds a 
record number of deputies identified in the West as "reformers."


The resurgent right wing could begin to push a more aggressive reform agenda 
that could unravel any broad Duma coalition hopes Putin might currently hold, 
analysts warned.


Perhaps sensing the danger, Putin on Wednesday urged parliament to "fulfill 
people's trust" and cooperate with the government.


"Putin must find one or two issues that separate him from the Communists but 
which are not too controversial at the same time," said Granville.


One of the first telling signs of Putin's ability to build a right-left 
pro-government alliance will come next month when the Duma selects its new 
speaker.


Most suggest that Putin is hoping to attract ex-premier and Yabloko faction 
co-leader Sergei Stepashin to the job -- a coup that would push the 
liberal-opposition faction into the government corner.


The Communists meanwhile are pushing for their own, still undisclosed 
candidate.


However still other analysts familiar with the unpredictable Yeltsin and his 
history of changing governments at will say predicting the outcome of the 
summer presidential race is still anyone's guess.


"Putin is the favorite now but, you never know what can happen Yeltsin is the 
president," remarked Yevgeny Volk of the Heritage Foundation in Moscow.


*******


#2
Old Duma to Gather for Its Last Session on Friday.


MOSCOW, December 22 (Itar-Tass) - The Russian State Duma of the second 
convocation will meet for the last time on December 24. The deputies will be 
addressed by Speaker Gennady Seleznyov. 


Meanwhile, political observers are interested in how the top leading posts 
will be distributed in the new Duma. Most of them believe the old mechanisms 
to be used, i.e representatives of factions which gained the majority of 
votes in the elections will be among the contenders for the right to head the 
Duma committees. The Communist Party of Russia, the Unity bloc and the 
Fatherland-All Russia movement have an obvious advantage. The Union of 
Right-wing Forces , the Zhirinovsky bloc and the Yabloko party can apparently 
count on a relatively small number of executive posts. 


Gennady Seleznyov, expects the committees of a new Duma of the third 
convocation to be more dynamic. "The number of committees in the Duma of the 
third convocation will be reduced from 28 to between 16 and 18," Seleznyov 
said during his previous meetings with journalists. The speaker expects the 
new committees to be more dynamic. 


There were big and small committees in the former Duma. The large committees 
handled budget, tax, banking and financial issues. The small committees 
comprised no more than 10 or 12 deputies. 


******


#3
Russian media say Grozny mission starts soon
By Peter Graff

MOSCOW, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on 
Wednesday the military campaign in rebel Chechnya was near its end and news 
agencies said commanders had already received orders to take the capital 
Grozny. 


After meeting President Boris Yeltsin in the Kremlin, Putin said the military 
campaign was nearly completed, but Russia had set no firm deadline and would 
do all it could to limit casualties among its troops. 


Interfax quoted military sources as saying commanders had already received 
orders to seize Grozny with a ``special operation'' and had already finished 
their preparations. 


``The necessary forces and means for carrying out the military operation have 
already been concentrated around Grozny,'' Interfax said. Russian generals 
say they will take the city without a full-scale frontal ground assault. 


The independent AVN news agency, which specialises in military affairs, 
quoted sources as saying operations to take the city could begin ``within 
days, perhaps even hours.'' 


AVN said generals had received orders to take the city 10 days ago, but had 
delayed the start of their operation so they could send paratroops and 
marines into the mountains in the south to prevent rebels from reinforcing 
the city. 


``Now nothing stands in the way of the operation,'' AVN said. 


CHECHENS SAY FIERCE SHELLING BEGINS 


Interfax news agency quoted the rebel mayor of Grozny, Lecha Dudayev, as 
saying overnight artillery strikes on the capital were the heaviest in 10 
days. He said shells had fallen all across the city, especially in an 
industrial zone in the west. 


But a Russian army spokesman at headquarters in Mozdok, just outside 
Chechnya, told NTV television the city was still quiet. 


Reuters correspondent Maria Eismont, in rebel-held territory, said fighting 
was going on at the mouth of the Shatoi Gorge, one of two main routes into 
the Caucasus Mountains in the south where guerrillas have set up bases. 


Three months into their campaign in the separatist region, Russian troops 
have taken nearly complete control over the lowland valley that forms 
Chechnya's heartland. 


The capital and the mountain hideouts remain the final strongholds in rebel 
hands, but they are far more easily defended than lowland towns and villages. 


Eismont, who was in Grozny last weekend with a small group of reporters for 
foreign news organisations, said about 8,000 guerrilla fighters were holed up 
in secure positions and had vowed to defend the city to the last man. 


She said thousands of civilians remained trapped in cellars with little food 
or firewood. Official Russian estimates of civilians still in Grozny have 
ranged from 4,000 to more than 40,000, but there is no way to count them. 


In the south, Russia has tried to pin rebels down in mountain gorges by 
opening new fronts. Russia dropped several hundred paratroops near the border 
with ex-Soviet Georgia last week and this week reinforced them with border 
guards and sent marines into the Chechen mountains from Dagestan to the east. 


Chechen guerrilla spokesman Movladi Udugov told Reuters by telephone from an 
undisclosed location that heavy fighting had started at dawn between rebels 
and the Russian paratroops near the Georgian frontier. He said the rebels had 
shot down a Russian helicopter. A Russian army spokesman had no comment. 


The rebel website kavkaz.org said heavy fighting was going on at the mouths 
of the two main mountain gorges which lead to the villages of Shatoi and 
Vedeno. 


Eismont reported fighting at the village of Duba-Yurt at the mouth of the 
Shatoi gorge and said rebel fighters told her of clashes with the paratroops 
near the Georgian border. 


RIGHTS WORKERS SAY EVIDENCE OF KILLINGS MOUNTS 


In Ingushetia, a Russian region west of Chechnya, workers from Human Rights 
Watch, the New York-based watchdog, said they had obtained increasingly 
convincing testimony supporting reports of killings in the Russian-held 
village of Alkhan-Yurt. 


The British Broadcasting Corporation said earlier this week that villagers 
had told it Russian soldiers had killed as many as 41 residents. Russia 
called the report lies. 


Human Rights Watch said extensive interviews with refugees gave corroborating 
accounts that at least 18 people had been killed in the village. 


``We have gathered many more independent refugee accounts. People give 
consistent testimonies about who was killed and how. The body of evidence is 
growing,'' said Paul Bouckaert, a researcher from the organisation. 
(Additional reporting by Lawrence Sheets in Nazran and Maria Eismont in 
Duba-Yurt) 


*******


#4
Jamestown Foundation Monitor
22 December 1999


NEARLY COMPLETED VOTE COUNT: LEFT STRONGER THAN RIGHT?
The vote count for the December 19 State Duma election is very nearly
complete. As of yesterday evening, with 98.03 percent of the
ballots counted, Fatherland-All Russia, the bloc headed by Moscow
Mayor Yuri Luzhkov and former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, saw
its overall percentage increase slightly. Meanwhile, the share won
by Unity, the bloc headed by Emergency Situations Minister Sergei
Shoigu, had decreased slightly. The breakdown as of last night
was: the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) with
24.29 percent of the vote, Unity with 23.24 percent, Fatherland-
All Russia (OVR) with 13.12 percent, the Union of Right-wing
forces (SPS) with 8.60 percent, the Zhirinovsky Bloc with 6.04
percent and Yabloko with 5.98 percent.


According to an analysis published today, the anti-Kremlin "left"
in the Duma--meaning the KPRF, OVR and possibly Yabloko--will be
able to garner 220-240 votes, while the "right"--meaning Unity,
SPS and the Zhirinovsky Bloc--will be able to garner 200 votes
(Argumenty i Fakty, No. 51, December 1999). It is not at all
clear, though, that Yabloko will vote consistently with the left,
and it is also quite possible that key members of OVR could defect
if the bloc decides to throw in its lot with the KPRF (see the
Monitor, December 21). Indeed, it is possible that the Agrarian
Party, which earlier this year abandoned its long-time alliance
with the KPRF to join OVR, could now abandon the OVR and team up
with Unity. OVR sources were quoted today as saying that Luzhkov
and Primakov are insisting that the bloc form a "single and
powerful faction" in the Duma, but that some of its members are
against this. Asked about splits in OVR, Luzhkov said today that
"the press is writing about it, but I have not heard anything"
(Russian agencies, December 22).


The Central Election Commission (CEC) also reported yesterday that
3.32 percent of the voters had checked the box on ballot
indicating "against all," while only 1.2 percent voted for Russia
is Our Home, the political movement founded by former Prime
Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin. Chernomyrdin, however, along with
Vladimir Ryzhkov, who headed the Russia is Our Home faction in the
previous Duma, were both elected to seats representing single-
mandate districts.


******


#5
BEREZOVSKY PRIORITIZES CONSOLIDATION OF POWER


MOSCOW. Dec 22 (Interfax) - Tycoon and newly-elected Duma deputy
Boris Berezovsky has prioritized the consolidation of authority.
"The current objective is to create a consolidated power" structure
which would pave the way for Russia's creative development, Berezovsky
said at an Interfax press conference on Wednesday.
The December 19 polls made it possible "to create not only a
constructive but non-opposition Duma," he said.
"The task [of setting up a consolidated power] can be resolved. The
formation of the Duma was not wrapped up on December 19, it only began
today," he said.
"The new power's strategic tasks" include "Russia's revival and its
positioning in a new outside world," he said.
Recent authorities "failed to resolve a single strategic task
except setting up a new economic and political system," he said.
Russia must focus "on preserving its territorial integrity under
comparably new economic and political circumstances," he said. Russia
"did not live as a single country on this huge territory in liberal
conditions," he said.
"The centrifugal processes, which are happening in Russia for
objective reasons and are splitting it apart have put colossal pressure
on the country," he said. The North Caucasus events "are a direct
consequence of these processes, and are an addition to the nation's
problems," he said.


******


#6
RUSSIAN INFORMATION WARS WILL END SOON - BEREZOVSKY


MOSCOW. Dec 22 (Interfax) - So-called information wars being waged
are about to end in Russia, tycoon Boris Berezovsky said.
Television anchor Sergei Dorenko is "an indefinitely talented
person," newly-elected Duma deputy Berezovsky said at an Interfax press
conference. Nobody can deny that Dorenko's achievements bear "a plus
rather than a minus sign. Dorenko's role was enormous," he said
referring to the Duma vote results.
Commenting on his telephone discussion of an information attack on
the Fatherland-All Russia election alliance with Dorenko published by
the mass media, Berezovsky said that it was a compilation which "on the
whole reflects the main idea" of the conversation.
The pre-election information war "is not about business but about a
clash of absolutely different political interests," he said. "One
[group] saw no other option but to move to the left, to the Fatherland-
All Russia bloc. They did not try to create a new construction," he
said. Authorities are to a certain extent to blame here. They did not
offer an alternative but waited at the initial stages, he said.
The other group was making a new construction. "The first group did
not like it and had to work for the Communists," he said. However, both
groups were unanimous in the 1996 presidential elections, he said.
"We are probably to blame for bringing them to the corner," he
said.
"Will I maintain ties with Gusinsky? As a person - no. As a man
backed by a huge force, no question about it. Except I do not want to
have lunch or breakfast together or talk about the weather," he said.


******


#7
Izvestia
December 22, 1999
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
MASTER OF CEREMONIES
Yeltsin May Feel Assured of a Place in History
By Georgy BOVT

One is tempted to describe yesterday's meeting between Boris
Yeltsin and Central Election Commission chairman Alexander
Veshnyakov as a ritual of sorts. But there are several ways of
viewing a ritual.
The president, on the one hand, expressed satisfaction with
the course of the December 19 elections to the Duma and praised
the work of both the Central Election Commission and the local
election commissions.
A worthily ceremonious and nomenklatura-modest CEC chairman
in turn noted that he thought there was still room for
improvement and that preparations for the forthcoming
presidential election, to be launched soon, would "take into
account certain minor deficiencies."
The presidential side would be glad to oblige: Yeltsin
promised to sign a new law on the elections of the head of state
right after its approval by the Federation Council, the upper
house.
For the first time serving in his capacity the president has
a parliament which cannot be said to be hard to work with. In
effect, the Kremlin has managed to win in a losing situation. 
The economy is in limbo. The population's real incomes have
been falling throughout the year without respite for the election
canvassing period--the state committee on statistics reports that
they dropped 17.3% in January through November, 1999. The
executive authority has placed a weakened team to run in the
race: many have hurried to make the deadly diagnosis--"people are
quitting the administration," there is nobody to work there.
But then, more than one person has been confidently
forecasting a premature political death for Yeltsin and his
administration in expectation of a lavish funeral banquet, only
to suffer a setback in his own career.
Paradoxically, Yeltsin--whatever the state of his
health--has been the only player of the supreme political league
in the Russian political field throughout these years. The
"games" he has been challenged to play have ranged from
fisticuffs to head-on attacks to high intrigues. Yeltsin's
opponents would lose every time, even when Yeltsin acted on the
spur of the moment, making mighty impromptu moves. 
The Duma elections have proved that the authorities can
effectively control the pre-election field, or at least force its
rules of the game and its canvassing techniques on other players.
Yeltsin has come to the conclusion: Putin can control the
pre-election field, run the office and engage in canvassing--to
thus be assured yet again that he had made the right choice when
he had opted for the little known Putin at the start of the
election campaign. 
Now is the time to think of his place in history. To bless
the union with Belarus. To be blessed himself, having made a
Russian Christmas pilgrimage to the Holy Land. For the first time
in many years, Yeltsin does not fear to divest his powers,
although he would naturally hate to do this. 
A political cynic would even suggest that Yeltsin just might
find it tempting to ponder staging a premature presidential
election--while Putin is doomed to win. But such reasoning is not
for our president: Yeltsin would bury anyone who finds the cheek
to come to him with such projects. 
There may be two scenarios of the future presidential
election campaign. 
One is the quiet and nearly automatic transfer of power from
Yeltsin to Putin in due time. The premier would hardly have any
serious rivals and the president can afford not to meddle in the
election squabbles.
The other scenario has the right to be. It may be much more
emotional--if the premier runs into political or economic
troubles and his current popularity begins waning. An experienced
analyst would say that not only Chechnya, but also the so-called
presidential entourage can well provoke tremors. The motives of
the latter may be simpler than many may think, and very biased.
The Duma elections have demonstrated such a high degree of
the ruling elite's mobilisation readiness that one can speak of
the emergence in Russia of a well-oiled political machinery that
can largely guarantee continuity of the current course and its
capacity to triumph. 
Yeltsin is well aware of this. This is why he has every
right to feel the main, if not the only, victor in the Russian
political battles--whatever other veterans and rookies may say.

******


#8
New York Times
22 December 1999
[for personal use only]
A Coat of Many Colors
By Thomas L. Friedman
After the Allies' first successes against German forces in Egypt in World War 
II, Winston Churchill told the British Parliament that this was not the end 
of the war, not even the beginning of the end, but it might just be the end 
of the beginning. 


The Russia scholar Leon Aron says the same today of Russia in the wake of its 
latest parliamentary elections. The fact that key centrist and reform-minded 
parties emerged from these elections with a chance to control the Russian 
legislature for the first time is not the end of Russia's wrenching 
transition to free-market democracy, says Mr. Aron. It's not even the 
beginning of the end of that transition. But it may mark the end of the 
beginning of Moscow's tumultuous move away from Communism. 


Mr. Aron, who immigrated to America from the Soviet Union in 1973 at age 23 
and is now head of Russian studies at the American Enterprise Institute, has 
a unique perspective on this. He has just completed a brilliant, long-awaited 
biography of Boris Yeltsin, entitled "Boris Yeltsin: A Revolutionary Life" 
(to be published in February by St. Martin's). In both his Yeltsin biography 
and other writings Mr. Aron ferociously takes on those who have been arguing 
that Russia is irredeemably "lost" and that Boris Yeltsin lost it. 


"One really has to resort to a medical diagnosis to describe how most of 
America's political elites have been viewing Russia of late," argues Mr. 
Aron. "They are afflicted by two simultaneous maladies: colorblindness and 
myopia. The myopia is a total lack of historical perspective. When corruption 
scandals are in the headlines, then the entire Russian reform experiment is 
dismissed as illegitimate. When the appalling brutality of Russian forces in 
Chechnya is in the headlines, we are told that it proves democracy in Russia 
is a sham, because no democracy would behave this way -- forgetting India in 
the Punjab, Turkey in Kurdistan or France in Algeria. 


"As for colorblindness, they cannot see that unlike the Russia of 10 years 
ago, today's Russia is not just a gray monolith. It is a multicolored mosaic. 
Yes, Chechnya is a black, black spot, but it is not the whole coat. It exists 
alongside a Russia which has free and fair elections, real free speech and 
press, a real political opposition and a real free market for the first time 
in its history." 


While Russia still has a long way to go before it gets what I believe it 
needs most, the rule of law and institutions that must undergird any free 
market, last weekend's elections were an important step. The fact that so 
many Russians trudged through the December snows to vote for constructive, 
centrist and pro-reform parties means that the Communists' stranglehold over 
the Russian Duma, which has blocked the legal and tax reforms Russia needs to 
build the software of democracy, will be broken. 


Mr. Aron argues that for all his faults, Boris Yeltsin kept Russia enough on 
the rails to get to this moment, which is why his legacy too must be seen as 
a mosaic of many colors. 


"Yeltsin was the man who lusted after power, but always insisted on acquiring 
it through democratic means," argued Mr. Aron. "And once he had that power, 
he used it both to tolerate corruption, as well as to demilitarize, crudely 
privatize and even decentralize the Russian state. And that is why, when all 
is said and done, we will remember Boris Yeltsin most for one thing -- what 
they call in Russian 'peredyshka.' It means catching your breath between 
bouts of physical or mental labor. Yeltsin gave us a messy Russia, but one 
that for the first time in its history is neither a monarchy nor a 
dictatorship. And in doing so he gave Russia time -- time to catch its breath 
so that its people could start to behave like rational voters. And we start 
to see the results of that now both in this election and the recent upturn in 
the Russian economy." 


Russia reminds us just how difficult it is to build a free market from 
scratch. You can do it the slow, tortoise way, as Russia did, by trying to 
build it with a messy democracy. And you can do it the fast, hare way, the 
authoritarian way, as China did, directed from above with a whip. 


"The Russian tortoise was declared to have been lost forever in the swamp," 
says Mr. Aron, "but these elections tell us that it's not. It's emerging from 
the end of its beginning and can now begin crawling to its real end. Who 
knows? Maybe it'll even catch the hare one day." 


******


#9
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
December 22, 1999
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
'December 19 Syndrome' and Future of Civil Society in Russia
By Sergei ABAKUMOV, chairman of the Board of the independent association 
Civil Society, chairman of the Council of Trustees 
of the national foundation Social Recognition

The most important of the latest election campaign's
positive results is that a parliament has been formed in the
latter-day Russia in which pragmatic politicians are in the
absolute majority.
One will find it hard to discern Centrists behind the
ideological labels, which have become commonplace thanks to the
latest election gimmicks, of the 'Pinkish' Fatherland-All Russia
(OVR) or the 'pro-Kremlin' Unity. But this is true: Shoigu and
Primakov, Gurov and Luzhkov are Centrists in principle, as are
the Yabloko members and the majority of independents.
In this way, we have at least one majority in the new
Duma--even if weak, contradictory and torn from the inside, this
majority exists. We will discern the very first results of work
of this informal Centrist majority in the future debates around
economic bills in the lower house and later, hopefully, in the
economy for the development of which the new laws will provide an
additional impetus. 
If the chamber adopts laws working for the country's future
economic development, we will soon see the rise of a middle
class, the basis of a civil society.
Another important result of the election campaign as such is
that representatives of the regional elites have been much more
conspicuous in its course. The provinces have appreciated that
without the participation of their representatives in the making
of laws the nation needs, they will find it hard to expect them
to work efficiently. 
The growing interest to the lower house may become yet
another force that would strengthen the interrelationship between
the federal centre and the regions. Whenever deputies feel
themselves not only members of the 'party and political elite'
but are also rooted in specific territories, the interests of the
electorate are much easier to observe. 
A third important result: society is waking up from
hibernation. The number of young people willing to go to the
polls has grown appreciably in the past few years. These young
votes have been the ones which have carried to the Duma both the
Union of Right Forces and Unity. At the same time, Yabloko, which
has staked, in this election campaign, on the votes of the
middle-aged and senior voters, is among the losers.
The reason is simple: a new generation has risen in the
country. Political forces may have to pay a dear price for having
ignored the new generation's opinion. 
Of course, some results have been bound to be negative, the
main one being that the elections have been exceptionally
'dirty'. This is the first time that society has seen such an
avalanche of really and virtually incriminating materials.
Whether they have worked or not does not matter, but we are yet
to feel their impact, because the main objective of any
incriminating material--sowing the seeds of suspicion--has been
attained. 
The nation will remember the latest election campaign for a
long time to come. But not only politicians will have to pay for
the use of such 'techniques'. The media have probably been the
worst hit. For the absolute majority of them, their announced
independence is a thing of the past. Society has lost faith in
the printed word: such is the worst result of the past elections.
Another 'juvenile disorder' of elections, the Russian-style,
is the craving for ratings. Science has come to replace the
mundane incriminating materials. Sociology and political sciences
have become instruments of political pressure on the voter.
Doctored results of opinion polls, which have filled the silver
screens, is a conspicuous sign of the campaign per se. 
Society has been made to do computations: instead of
pondering arguments offered by the competing political forces, it
has engaged in riddles of the I-do-not-trust-him-because-I-do-
not-like-him type. 
In August, OVR's rating was sky-high. But the new premier
comes, and the bloc's rating plummets. Could it be that it has
been no confidence rating at all, but rather the liking the voter
felt for the bloc's leaders?
Last but not least, fewer voters turned out at the polling
stations on December 19 than they had done in 1995--60% and
64.7%, respectively. The lower turnout is a sign that the people
have little trust in the authorities, the largest parties and
candidates. The reason is that the voter has been disoriented,
stunned by the information wars and dirty techniques. 
A graphic example: in St. Petersburg, the most European,
enlightened and 'aristocratic' city of Russia, nearly 15% of the
voters have voted "None of the Above." For the authorities and
society as a whole, this is a symptom of the mass mentality's
disintegration. 
One thing is clear; as distinct from the previous Duma which
has been focusing on political matters, the new chamber should
work in close contact with public organisations. The law makers
should involve in their work, on a par with professional lawyers
and political scientists, respected public figures capable of
lending a hand in public probing of the laws to be made.

*******


#10
Los Angeles Times
December 22, 1999
[for personal use only]
In Russia, Democracy Yields a Motley Crowd of Deputies 
Elections: Circle of winners extends to not-so-reputable candidates. Critics 
warn of Kremlin's growing influence. 
By RICHARD C. PADDOCK, Times Staff Writer


MOSCOW--If there's one thing parliamentary elections proved this week, 
it's that there is a place for everyone in Russia's democracy. 
The deputies who will take their seats in January in the Duma, 
parliament's lower house, represent virtually every strain of ideology--and 
political malady--to visit Russia in recent times. 
Did your political party formerly participate in mass repression, 
killings and the deportation of millions of people to labor camps? There's no 
need to apologize. Take a seat in the Duma. 
Were you responsible for bringing on Russia's economic collapse last 
year and costing millions of people their life savings? Not to worry. Russian 
voters are very forgiving. 
In some societies, such people might be considered villains. Here they 
become members of parliament. 
"The parliamentary elections have graphically showed that the majority 
of Russian voters are politically immature yet already indifferent to 
politics," said Pavel G. Bunich, who lost his bid for reelection to the 
450-seat Duma. "This has resulted in a situation where the newly elected 
Russian parliament looks like a motley bunch of politicians, some of whom 
managed to create one of the most merciless regimes in the world, while 
others robbed the whole country naked not so long ago." 
Russia's democracy is truly representative: The new Duma will take in 
suspected organized-crime figures, former KGB generals and tycoons who 
amassed their fortunes through the corrupt privatization of government 
assets. 
Former Interior Minister Anatoly S. Kulikov, who led Russia to defeat in 
the 1994-96 Chechen war, was rewarded with a Duma seat. So was former Supreme 
Soviet Chairman Anatoly I. Lukyanov, who took part in the 1991 coup attempt 
against Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev. 
Former Soviet Politburo member Yegor K. Ligachev, once Gorbachev's 
second-in-command, was victorious. So was Alexander V. Korzhakov, President 
Boris N. Yeltsin's former bodyguard and drinking buddy, who wrote an 
embarrassing tell-all book about the president. 
Three key officials who presided over the August 1998 fiscal collapse 
will join them in the new Duma: former Prime Minister Sergei V. Kiriyenko, 
former Deputy Prime Minister Boris Y. Nemtsov and former Finance Minister 
Mikhail M. Zadornov. 
"These elections demonstrated that our people can be easily manipulated 
into voting for virtually anybody, even the embodiment of evil," said a 
bitter Pavel I. Voshchanov, who lost his race for the Duma in a Moscow 
district after an opponent smeared him as a pimp on the eve of the election. 
"Some observers may say that the people were fooled, but in most cases 
you can only fool a fool," he said. "This is the biggest problem of our 
people whose best representatives--the bearers of such basic qualities as 
honor, dignity, wisdom, honesty and kindness--have been periodically and 
methodically eradicated throughout the 20th century." 
Of course, some respected citizens were among the winners: Olympic 
wrestler Alexander A. Karelin, a three-time gold medal winner, and police 
Gen. Alexander I. Gurov, who was among the first to denounce organized crime 
in the Soviet Union, both rode into the Duma as leaders of the pro-Kremlin 
Unity bloc. 
There also were some high-profile candidates of questionable motive who 
didn't make it into the Duma: Reputed crime boss Sergei A. Mikhailov was 
bumped off the ballot at the last minute on a technicality, and outspoken 
anti-Semitic Communist leader Gen. Albert M. Makashov, an incumbent deputy, 
was disqualified for violating election rules. Yuri T. Shutov, who was 
running from his St. Petersburg jail cell while awaiting his murder trial, 
lost his race. 
Voters in six districts refused to elect any candidate at all, casting 
more ballots for "none of the above" than for any single contender. Under 
Russian law, that means no one won in those districts, and new elections must 
be held. Nationwide, "none of the above" received 3.32% of the party slate 
vote--placing it ahead of 20 of the 26 parties on the ballot. 
Nevertheless, there were plenty of votes around for some of the most 
controversial figures of the post-Soviet era. 
Two wealthy members of the Kremlin inner circle were victorious in 
remote regions far from Moscow and the scrutiny of the national media. 
Tycoon Roman A. Abramovich won in remote Chukotka, nine time zones from 
the Kremlin and one of the country's most impoverished provinces. The Sibneft 
oil company, controlled by Abramovich, reportedly supplied the Arctic region 
with $5 million worth of oil during the campaign. 
Billionaire Boris A. Berezovsky, believed to be the mastermind of the 
Unity bloc's near-tie with the Communists for first place nationwide, won his 
own election in Karachayevo-Cherkessia, an impoverished region in southern 
Russia. During the campaign, Berezovsky promised to build a car-parts factory 
in the region. 
While neither Berezovsky nor Abramovich has much use for the apartments, 
cars and free air travel that come with the job of Duma deputy, they may 
benefit from another parliamentary perk: blanket immunity from prosecution. 
As key figures in the Kremlin ruling clique, they might have faced 
investigations into the sources of their wealth when Yeltsin's term ends next 
year. 
Another winner was Viktor S. Chernomyrdin, Russia's longest-serving 
prime minister, who allegedly became wealthy while running the government 
during the era of privatization. Chernomyrdin, the former head of Russia's 
gas monopoly, chose to run in a major gas-producing region of Siberia. 
In fact, being a former prime minister seemed to help candidates' 
election chances. All four prime ministers fired by Yeltsin over the past 20 
months--Chernomyrdin, Kiriyenko, Yevgeny M. Primakov and Sergei V. 
Stepashin--won Duma seats. 
The biggest winner, however, was singer and Duma Deputy Iosif D. Kobzon, 
sometimes called Russia's Frank Sinatra, who received 94% of the vote in his 
Moscow district. He was denied a visa to enter the United States in 1995 
because of FBI reports allegedly linking him to Russian organized crime. 
Voshchanov, a former Yeltsin press secretary, said he believes that the 
malleability of the Russian voter is a dangerous development and that the 
results of Sunday's election will give the Kremlin a free hand in running the 
country. 
"Some Western analysts may raise hopes that the new Duma will be more 
democratic and less pro-Communist than the previous one," he said. "But I 
would disagree with this notion. I think the new Duma will be a step toward 
the creation of a new totalitarian system." 


******


#11
The Russia Journal
December 21-27, 1999
Strategists develop art of dirty campaign
Few parties come out unscathed
By EKATERINA LARINA / The Russia Journal


Russia's third parliamentary election campaign has seen an increased level of 
sophistication in one area at least - underhanded campaign strategies.


Whether calling up a voter in the middle of the night and claiming to be a 
rival candidate, or creating a publicity-generating scandal around a leader 
whose political fortunes are flagging, the imaginations of electoral 
strategists and PR advisers have been in overdrive these past few weeks.


Most observers agree the campaign for the State Duma (lower house of 
parliament) has not exactly been one of "issues."


"I assess this campaign as one based mainly on negative attacks on 
participants," said Vladimir Zharikhin, head of the Electoral Techniques 
Department of the Moscow Foundation of Presidential Programs. "A negative 
factor is normally part of any electoral campaign, but in this case it has 
prevailed over everything else."


Lowering opponents in the eyes of the electorate is acknowledged by most 
Western political strategists as an important task for any leader. But in 
Russia the tactic has been reversed - with some attempting to sully their own 
reputations in a bid to generate publicity. 


"This could easily be the case with [Vladimir] Zhirinovsky," said Dmitry 
Levchik, executive director of the Coordinating Center for Fair Elections. 
"With him we can see the benefits of huge scandals." 


Levchik believes that in an effort to bolster their leader's image, 
Zhirinovsky's minders experimented with the idea of involving him in sex 
scandals. He said the first step was to "test the water," and this came when 
Zhirinovsky provocatively kissed singer Sophia Rotaru.


"His advisers saw the huge reaction [in the press and among the public]. It 
was clear the field was suitable. So that incident was followed up by the 
publication of pictures of Zhirinovsky in Playboy." 


Then came the coup de grace, according to Levchik, when Zhirinovsky took an 
active role in a visit to [Italian porn star and parliamentarian] Cicciolina.


"Zhirinovsky's people have been fostering this scandalous image ever since," 
he said.


While few have gone to the extremes of Zhirinovsky, analysts, pollsters and 
politicians agree that "dirty tricks and negative strategies" have been a 
hallmark of this election.


But while politicians tried to expose each other's unfair methods, 
independent observers say that there have been breaches of the law by almost 
every participant in the political process. 


"I am afraid that if we had tried to abide strictly by the rules [on party 
registration and campaigning], the voting cards would have been blank," said 
Georgy Satarov, president of the INDEM think tank and a former adviser to 
President Yeltsin. He believes no single party has managed to conform to 
Russia's electoral laws.


But on the front line of the campaign, a variety of methods have been 
employed to attack and discredit opponents, ranging from the subtle to 
full-blown assaults. 


The most blatant case was that of ORT current affairs' host Sergei Dorenko, 
who used his prime time program to attack the credibility of the leaders of 
the Fatherland-All Russia (OVR) bloc.


The Fair Elections Center's Levchik has been researching various strategies 
for "black PR," as it was recently dubbed in Russia. His main conclusion is 
that it is becoming increasingly sophisticated and is being developed with 
the assistance of professional lawyers.


"There are so many holes in the law that almost anything can be done without 
breaking it," he said.


Levchik said one technique involves registering so-called "double" or "twin" 
candidates, where the namesake of a famous person is used to draw votes off 
another candidate. 


But most strategists simply target their main rival, and Levchik has a long 
list of incidents.


He said these include late night phone calls asking people to vote for a 
candidate (using a rival's name). The reaction of a voter woken late at night 
is predictable - they note the name given and, says Levchik, inevitably do 
not vote for that person.


Another trick is sticking a rival's campaign leaflet on a voter's car with 
super glue; or distributing fake leaflets signed by a gay community 
organization or some cult that is likely to repulse the electorate. 


But one of the most powerful weapons in the arsenal of "black PR" 
specialists, Levchik said, is that of having a rival barred outright from 
running for election - typically by placing an opponent outside of the law. 
This is often achieved by a simple trick like replicating copies of an 
opponent's campaign literature, but without referencing the leaflet (its 
origin, number of copies and so forth), which is illegal.


"Basically, such leaflets can be enough for a court to strike a candidate off 
the ballot," Levchik said.


However, as in the West, the impact of dirty tricks on the final voting 
pattern is hotly contested by political analysts.


Yelena Bashkirova, head of the ROMIR public opinion agency, played down the 
effectiveness of black PR. She said the impact of such tactics cannot be 
quantified without special polls and research. By her studies, its real 
impact is minimal.


"I don't think black PR seriously influences the electorate," Bashkirova 
said. "I see that its volume might have increased, but its impact has 
declined."


Zharikhin of the presidential foundation program sees the major consequences 
of black PR as turning people off of voting altogether. But Bashkirova 
disagrees, saying her research has turned up nothing of the sort.


Whatever the effectiveness of dirty campaigns, most Russian political 
observers don't like the current situation, though few see any immediate 
solutions.


INDEM's Satarov believes that it cannot be corrected by legal means. "Only a 
developing political culture in the country can improve the situation," he 
argued.


Zharikhin also doesn't believe in regulating the processes by law, believing 
a better idea might be some sort of professional code of ethics for political 
strategists. But he says dirty tricks are part and parcel of any electoral 
campaign in the world. 


"Frankly speaking," he said," I can't understand those who cry that [black 
PR] is depressing and so on. Of course it is! But have they ever seen 
electoral campaigns in the West? All is fair in love and war."


*******


#12
Financial Times (UK)
22 December 1999
[for personal use only]
RUSSIA: Praises for Stalin spark dispute 
By John Thornhill in Moscow


A furious ideological dispute erupted between two of the leaders of Russia's 
newly-elected parliament yesterday after senior Communist party politicians 
praised Stalin's role in history and placed flowers on his grave on the 120th 
anniversary of his birth.


As leaders of the six parties that won seats in the Duma after Sunday's 
parliamentary elections yesterday opened talks on who would be the next 
speaker, Grigory Yavlinsky, leader of the liberal Yabloko party, said those 
politicians who claimed to be the ideological heirs of Stalin had no right to 
any senior posts in a democratically elected parliament.


"Today the chairman of the central committee of the Communist Party of 
Russia, Gennady Zyuganov, placed flowers on the grave of Stalin and during 
the ceremony gave a positive assessment to his historical role," Mr Yavlinsky 
said.


"Such a party has no right to claim the post of speaker of the Duma nor the 
post of first deputy."


Earlier in the day, Mr Zyuganov had praised Stalin as the greatest leader in 
Russian history. "Stalin came to power when the country was picking up the 
pieces and left it as one of the greatest and most powerful states on the 
planet," he said.


The leader of the biggest faction in the incoming parliament admitted there 
had been some "tragic events" during Stalin's rule but said the Soviet 
Communist party had discussed these issues in the 1950s and condemned the 
repressions and violations of the law.


Russian historians estimate as many as 30m people may have died in the 
famines, purges and deportations that resulted from Stalin's repressive 
policies.


Mr Zyuganov also denounced Boris Yeltsin, the president, as "reducing Russia 
to the status of a beggar pleading for crumbs in a church porch".


Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin, the prime minister, met parliamentary leaders 
yesterday, and urged them to back the government's efforts to pursue economic 
reforms and crush terrorism in the Caucasus.


"The nation is pinning great hopes on the new Duma, the more so since there 
are many problems that need to be solved," Mr Putin said - a call that 
appeared to have been rejected by Mr Zyuganov, who said his party would 
oppose any moves by Mr Yeltsin's government that threatened to inflict 
further suffering on the people.


Mr Zyuganov also attacked the Kremlin-backed Unity movement, which did 
surprisingly well in Sunday's elections.


*******


#13
Russia and US remain far apart on nuclear shield row: report


MOSCOW, Dec 22 (AFP) - 
Russia and the United States remain far apart Wednesday in their row over US 
plans to build a new nuclear defense shield, Interfax cited undisclosed 
diplomats here as saying.


The news agency report followed a meeting between visiting US Deputy 
Secretary of State Strobe Talbott and Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy 
Mamedov.


When Talbott arrived here Tuesday Moscow reiterated its warning to Washington 
not to step outside the bounds of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) 
Treaty in order build a nuclear umbrella over the United States.


Russia says any modification of the treaty would render current START III 
arms control talks meaningless.


However Washington insists it needs the defense system to guard itself from 
rogue states like North Korea and Iraq, stressing that its plans are not 
aimed at Russia.


Interfax reported that neither side budged from their positions during 
closed-door talks on Wednesday.


"Russia and the United States are not and will not lead any negotiations 
about changes to the ABM agreement," a Russian diplomat told Interfax 
afterwards.


"If you change its foundation, as the American side wants, then the ABM 
agreement loses all meaning."


Talbott was later due to meet with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, whom he was 
likely to question about the chances of the new Russian parliament finally 
ratifying the 1993 START II treaty, which had never reached the outgoing 
nationalist chamber for a vote.


Putin on Tuesday urged Russia's outgoing parliament to approve START II 
before the new chamber assembles in mid-January. But his call was brushed 
aside by Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov.


The Russian premier repeated Wednesday that START II should be ratified "the 
sooner, the better." 


"We want to make the world safe, and we are seeking the best of guarantees 
for the world's safety while securing Russia's position in the world," 
Interfax quoted Putin saying.


Talbott's visit comes amid a chill in US-Russian relations stemming from 
intense Western criticism of Russia's ongoing military campaign in the 
breakaway republic of Chechnya.


It also follows an unexpected shake-up in Russia's political landscape 
following the strong performance by pro-government forces in Sunday's State 
Duma lower house of parliament elections.


Talbott began his day Wednesday at the foreign ministry where he tried to 
"acquaint himself in detail with the outcome of the State Duma vote and its 
influence on the future development of Russia," one diplomat here told 
ITAR-TASS.


Besides disagreements on the ABM and Chechnya, Talbott's meeting with Putin 
was also expected to be soured by the State Department's intervention Tuesday 
in a key US loan to a top Russian oil company.


The US Export-Import Bank, acting on a recommendation from Washington, 
declined to approve a 500 million dollar loan guarantee to the Tyumen Oil 
Company (TNK).


Western oil companies, including BP Amaco, have accused TNK of unfair 
business practices and cheating minority shaleholders in the company, which 
is 49 percent owned by the state.


******