December 20, 1999    
This Date's Issues:• 3696  • 3697

Johnson's Russia List
#3697
20 December 1999
davidjohnson@erols.com


******


TABLE-Russia election results and seats at 1100 GMT


MOSCOW, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Following is a table of the
latest results of the parliamentary election held in Russia on
Sunday, including the number of seats won. Results are from the
Central Electoral Commission.


Half of the 450 seats in the State Duma lower house were
contested among 26 parties, the other half by individual
candidates in local constituencies.


A party needs to get at least five percent of the vote to
win seats in the Duma. Votes won by parties which fail to pass
through the threshold are divided between the winners. So the
share of seats in the next Duma will be bigger for each of the
winning party than the percentage of votes it wins.


For parties which took part in the 1995 Duma election,
results of their party list voting is shown in brackets.


Time: 02:00 p.m. (1100 GMT)


Percent of votes counted: 82.31 percent


Turnout: 61.3 percent (minimum 25 pct)


PARTY LISTS INDIVIDUALS TOTAL


pct seats seats seats


1. Communist Party


(22.30 pct) 24.38 68 43 111


2. Unity (Yedinstvo) 23.68 66 10 76


3. Fatherland-All Russia 12.08 33 29 62


4. Union Of Right-Wing
Forces 8.71 24 5 29


5. Yabloko (6.89 pct) 6.10 17 5 22


6. Zhirinovsky bloc


(11.18 pct*) 6.15 17 0 17


7. Communists and Workers
of Russia for USSR 2.25 - - -


8. Women of Russia (4.61 pct) 2.06 - - -


9. Pensioners Party 2.03 - 1 1


10.Our Home is Russia


(10.13 pct) 1.22 - 7 7


11.Party for Protection
of Women 0.81 - - -


12.Stalinist bloc for USSR 0.62 - - -


13.For Civil Dignity bloc 0.62 - - -


14."Peace, Work, May" 0.58 - - -


15.Block headed by general
Andrei Nikolayev and
Svyatoslav Fyodorov 0.57 - - -


16.Congress of Russian
Communities (4.31 pct) 0.62 - 1 1


17.Movement in Support
of the Army 0.59 - 2 2


18.Party of Peace and Unity 0.38 - - -


19.Russian Popular Union 0.36 - 1 1


20.Russian Socialist Party 0.24 - - -


21.Movement of Patriotic
Forces 0.18 - - -


22.Conservative Movement
of Russia 0.13 - - -


23.All-Russian People's
Party 0.11 - - -


24.Socialist Party of Russia 0.10 - 2 2


25.Spiritual Heritage 0.10 - 1 1


26.Social-Democratic bloc 0.08 - - -


27.Against All 3.36 - - -


28.Independents - - 107 107


* In 1995 ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky stood for
parliament at the helm of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR).
This year the party was barred from election on technicalities
and Zhirinovsky hastily set up another bloc. But throughout the
campaign he consistently said it was just another name for LDPR.


******


Three ex-PMs, two tycoons elected to Russian Duma
By Anatoly Verbin

MOSCOW, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Three former prime ministers and two controversial 
businessmen will be among the newcomers to Russia's State Duma, the lower 
chamber of parliament, poll results showed on Monday. 


Viktor Chernomyrdin, the longest-serving premier in post-Soviet Russia and 
now head of the board of natural gas monopoly Gazprom, won in the sparsely 
populated gas-producing Yamal-Nenetsk region in western Siberia. 


But he is likely to carry little political weight as his centrist party 
suffered a humiliating defeat in Sunday's poll. Our Home is Russia, dubbed 
"the party of power" in the previous 1995 poll, got slightly more than one 
percent. 


Chernomyrdin, 61, was sacked by President Boris Yeltsin in March 1998 after 
more than five years in office. 


Two other former premiers, though they served much shorter terms, are likely 
to be important players in the new Duma. 


Sergei Kiriyenko, 37, led his newly formed Union of Right-Wing Forces (SPS) 
of radical reformers to the biggest surprise in the poll -- it easily cleared 
the five percent barrier to form a party group in the legislature. 


Kiriyenko was Yeltsin's surprise choice to take over from Chernomyrdin, but 
he served only four months and was sacked after announcing Russia was to 
default on some debts and allowing the rouble to devalue sharply. 


SPS is likely to side with the pro-Kremlin Unity bloc which results showed 
running neck-and-neck with the Communist Party. Unity, only created a couple 
of months ago, has virtually no platform, and is likely to draw on the 
experience of SPS. 


STEPASHIN COULD BE NEW SPEAKER 


Another former premier, Sergei Stepashin, was number two on the list of the 
liberal opposition Yabloko party, which also cleared five percent but did 
worse than expected after criticising the tactics used in breakaway Chechnya. 


The mild-mannered 47-year-old, who also won an individual place in a St 
Petersburg constituency, is not a formal member of Yabloko. He is seen by 
some analysts as a possible contender for the post of the Duma speaker, 
acceptable to many groups. 


Stepashin served only 82 days this year before Yeltsin replaced him with 
Vladimir Putin in August. 


A group of controversial businessmen appeared poised to become deputies. 


Top of the list are Roman Abramovich and Boris Berezovsky who are widely seen 
as influential members of President Boris Yeltsin's inner circle, dubbed "The 
Family" by Russian media. 


They stood in opposite parts of Russia -- Abramovich in the Chukotka 
peninsula opposite Alaska and Berezovsky in the North Caucasus region of 
Karachayevo-Cherkessia. 


Abramovich, who controls the Sibneft oil company, has been declared a winner 
while Berezovsky was ahead of the closest rival by 10 percentage points. 


Berezovsky became a public politician several years ago. He was recently 
investigated by Russian prosecutors in connection with alleged 
money-laundering and illegal business activities, but the case against him 
was later dropped. 


Abramovich allowed his fist newspaper picture to be taken only when he 
launched his campaign. 


******


Kremlin says Duma poll brings ``revolution''
By Gareth Jones


MOSCOW, Dec 20 (Reuters) - A senior Kremlin aide on Monday hailed the outcome 
of Sunday's Russian parliamentary election as a victory for President Boris 
Yeltsin and the government of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. 


``In Russia a revolution has taken place, a peaceful one but a revolution all 
the same,'' Igor Shabdurasulov, first deputy head of the presidential 
administration, told a news conference. ``This is a colossal breakthrough.'' 


The main opposition Communists looked set to remain the biggest party in 
Russia's State Duma lower house after Sunday's poll, but two new pro-Kremlin 
blocs did surprisingly well and were expected to alter the balance of power 
in parliament. 


Shabdurasulov said Yeltsin had high hopes for ``constructive cooperation'' 
with the new Duma, adding that he had spoken to the president overnight as 
results from Russia's 11 time zones were flowing in. 


``(Yeltsin believes) we have to do everything possible to achieve concord 
between the different branches of power.'' 


Yeltsin, now 68, has spent much of his eight years in power since the fall of 
the Soviet Union fighting parliaments dominated by his enemies, notably the 
Communist Party and its allies, who have tried to slow or reverse his 
economic reforms. 


In 1993 the president sent tanks to crush an armed rebellion backed by 
hardliners in the Soviet-era legislature still then in existence. The 
subsequent two Dumas, elected in 1993 and in 1995, have also fought with 
Yeltsin and earlier this year lawmakers tried unsuccessfully to impeach him. 


REFORMS, PUTIN SEEN AS MAIN VICTORS 


Shabdurasulov said Russia now had the most reform-friendly parliament of its 
post-Soviet history and said this pointed to the maturity of the country's 
electorate. 


``The citizens...have shown themselves much more responsible and wiser than 
the politicians and political analysts,'' he said. 


The biggest surprise of Sunday's election was the strong showing by Unity 
(Yedinstvo), a bloc formed only a few months ago and openly endorsed by 
Putin. Unity is on course to be the biggest faction in the new Duma after the 
Communists. 


The Union of Right-Wing Forces (SPS) led by former prime minister Sergei 
Kiriyenko and other so-called ``young reformers'' also put in an unexpectedly 
strong showing. 


Shabdurasulov ascribed the results to the role of Putin, Russia's most 
popular politician and Yeltsin's preferred candidate to succeed him in a 
presidential vote due next year. 


``This (outcome) is extremely important for the fate of the country and for 
the forthcoming (presidential) election,'' Shabdurasulov said. 


``The parliamentary election clearly indicates the likely winner of the 
presidential poll,'' he said. Asked to clarify his remark, he added: ``Putin. 
That's it.'' 


PUTIN ``TOUGH, PRINCIPLED'' 


Putin, in office only since August, owes his popularity largely to his 
decision to get tough with Islamic militants in breakaway Chechnya whom 
Moscow blames for a series of bomb blasts and for trying to destabilise the 
North Caucasus region. 


The military campaign, now in its third month, has strained Russia's 
relations with the West but has gone down well with an electorate hungry for 
strong, decisive leadership. 


Shabdurasulov said voters had been impressed by Putin's ``tough, principled'' 
approach. 


He said the Kremlin also hoped to work with deputies from the Fatherland-All 
Russia bloc (OVR), seen as one of the main losers of Sunday's poll. He 
counted OVR together with Unity, SPS and the Yabloko party as part of 
Russia's reformist camp. 


The bloc, led by ex-Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov and Moscow Mayor Yuri 
Luzhkov, had been the target of a hostile campaign in Kremlin-backed media 
during the runup to the vote and ended up with far fewer votes than initially 
expected. 


*******


Boston Globe
20 December 1999
[for personal use only]
Premier gains in his bid to succeed Yeltsin
By David Filipov


MOSCOW - The Communists were on target to get the most votes, but Russian 
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his war effort in Chechnya appeared to be 
the big winners yesterday as Russia elected a new lower house of parliament.


Riding on Putin's message of national pride and strong leadership for Russia, 
parties allied with the former KGB agent did better than expected in 
yesterday's vote for the State Duma, taking 36 percent of the vote versus 28 
percent for the Communists, according to exit polls.


Putin's hopes of succeeding President Boris N. Yeltsin also got an important 
boost six months before next year's presidential election. Fifty percent of 
voters surveyed in a nationwide exit poll yesterday said they would vote for 
the premier. Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov rated second in the poll with 
17 percent, and former prime minister Yevgeny Primakov ranked third with 14 
percent.


Preliminary results of the voting indicate that the next State Duma, for 
years a bastion of antigovernment sentiment, could have a pro-Kremlin 
majority for the first time since its creation in 1993.


But what that means for Russia's transition to a market-oriented democracy is 
unclear. In his four months as premier, Putin has said little about his 
economic plans. So far, the main source of his popularity has been Russia's 
three-month military campaign against Islamic separatists in Chechnya, which 
is widely seen here not only as a success for the army, but also as a sign of 
Russia's rejuvenation as a force to be reckoned with.


The main pro-Kremlin bloc in yesterday's vote, Unity (also known as ''The 
Bear''), clearly benefited from its backing by Putin and the close 
involvement of its leader, Emergencies Minister Sergei Shoigu, in the war 
effort. Unity's rating was nil when it was hastily formed in September; 
results of a nationwide exit poll shown on NTV television indicated The Bear 
would snare 25 percent of the vote.


Another bloc that has allied itself with Putin's presidential campaign, the 
Union of Right Forces, scored a surprising 11 percent in the exit poll. The 
bloc is led by the ''young reformers,'' proponents of Western economic models 
who have held senior government posts in recent years.


''For the first time in 10 years the Duma will not be controlled by the 
Communists,'' said former prime minister Sergei Kiriyenko, leader of the 
Union of Right Forces. ''This victory is hard to overestimate.''


But rather than a ringing endorsement of market economics, analysts 
attributed the bloc's strong showing to the heavy promotion it received on 
Russia's two main state-run television stations in the last three weeks of 
the campaign, and to the strong pro-war stance taken by its leaders. Many 
Russians blame the reformists for everything that has gone wrong with the 
economy.


Putin himself was more circumspect.


''One would like very much the new Duma to be efficient and easy to cooperate 
with in solving the country's acute problems,'' he said after voting in 
western Moscow.


The exit poll predicted 11 percent for the Fatherland/All Russia alliance of 
Primakov and Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov, who cruised to reelection yesterday 
in the Russian capital despite the disappointing national result for his 
coalition. The poll predicted that the liberal Yabloko party would win 8 
percent, and forecast that a bloc led by flamboyant nationalist Vladimir 
Zhirinovsky would gain 5 percent of the vote, the minimum vote needed for 
parties to place their members in the Duma. 


Preliminary results released this morning with 43.2 percent of the vote 
counted showed Unity/Bear with 25.6 percent of the vote versus 25.2 percent 
for the Communists, with about 6.8 percent for Zhirinovsky, 8.8 percent for 
the Union of Right Forces, 8.6 percent for Fatherland/All Russia and 5.9 
percent for Yabloko. 


Support for the war was one of the main issues in a campaign in which parties 
rarely talked about how they would make life better in a country where 
millions of workers go months without being paid and the health system, 
education, and other social services have yet to recover from 10 years of 
economic decline.


Only the Communists, staunch critics of Yeltsin throughout his eight years as 
Russia's leader, appeared to capitalize on their appeal to discontented 
voters. But the Communists' first-place showing does not guarantee that they 
will have the most seats in the Duma. Only half of the house's 450 seats are 
decided by parties' showing in the national vote; the other 225 seats are 
contested in individual constituencies.


Only when these votes are tallied will the makeup of the Duma, and the 
policies it will pursue, become clear. Yesterday, several prominent 
progovernment candidates, including another former prime minister, Viktor S. 
Chernomyrdin, and oil baron and reported Kremlin insider Roman Abramovich 
appeared to have won seats. Kremlin insider Boris Berezovsky, a prime 
strategist for the Unity bloc, was ahead in his region. Political analyst 
Igor Bunin predicted that the Kremlin would, for the first time since the 
Duma was created in 1993, have the simple majority needed to elect a 
supporter as speaker.


Since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian governments have always 
feuded with parliament; the Duma was created in 1993 after Yeltsin used tanks 
and troops to destroy the previous legislature, which had defied his attempt 
to dissolve it.


Putin's allies won despite Yeltsin's endorsement, rather than because of it. 
Russians have come to associate their president with corruption, economic 
crises, and a lack of authority personified by his own erratic behavior and 
declining health. Putin, and the parties he supports, have managed to create 
the impression of vitality. Even though Unity/Bear has no recognizable party 
platform, this was more important.


''There is such a longing for powerful authority,'' noted Dmitry Oreshkin, a 
spokesman for Russia's federal electoral commission.


Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said 
the vote appeared to have been conducted fairly, although they had witnessed 
''family voting'' practices, where the head of a household votes on behalf of 
the entire family. In one Moscow polling station, voters asked one another 
for advice on how to choose among two dozen parties. NTV reported that some 
stations ran out of paper ballots, and local election officials added to the 
confusion by crossing out candidates who were on the list.


In one incident, the Communist Party accused opponents of trying to blacken 
its image by placing 24 bottles of vodka outside its headquarters, Reuters 
reported. The party apparently feared that voters might have seen the bottles 
as an attempt to secure their votes through bribery.


Elsewhere, vodka shots were sold at low prices, apparently to entice citizens 
to brave the winter weather and get out the vote. But even where there was no 
liquid encouragement, turnout was solid: 57 percent nationwide.


The campaign was marred by a heavy-handed effort to discredit the 
Fatherland/All Russia alliance, put on by the country's main television 
station, ORT, which is controlled by Berezovsky and reaches most of Russia's 
households. Sergei Dorenko, the ORT host who led the campaign against Luzhkov 
and Primakov, was pleased with yesterday's results.


''The electoral show has been successful,'' Dorenko told reporters. ''Now 
Luzhkov and Primakov cannot be considered realistic candidates for 
president.''


*******


Russian press upbeat on parliamentary elections
By Karl Emerick Hanuska

MOSCOW, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Russian newspapers on Monday were upbeat about the 
weekend election which has tipped the balance of power in the country's third 
post-Soviet parliament from the Communists towards pro-Kremlin parties. 


The Communist Party will maintain a major voice in the new State Duma, or 
lower house, but early results showed a larger than expected contingent of 
pro-government deputies. 


The election dominated the headlines of the handful of newspapers which are 
published in Russia on Mondays and the surprisingly strong showing by the 
Kremlin-backed Unity party, also known as the Bear, was greeted 
enthusiastically by most. 


Under the headline ``A Bearish Surprise'' the business daily Vedomosti noted: 
``For the first time in post Soviet history parties which support the 
government garnered more votes than were forecast...and not the reverse.'' 


``Now, in contrast to the outgoing Duma, the Communists will not have the 
opportunity to dictate who will fill senior posts in the lower house of 
parliament.'' 


It added: ``More than that, a firm majority which can pass 
government-proposed bills has appeared among non-Communist forces.'' 


Preliminary results, with more than 80 percent of votes counted, showed the 
Communists leading with 111 seats in the 450-seat chamber, while two 
pro-government blocs, Unity and the Union of Right-Wing Forces, won a 
combined total of 105 seats. 


Izvestia called the results a sensation and said: ``(Russia) now has the 
chance to get a Duma capable of getting work done.'' 


``The Russian voter likes to create sensations. This time they did not let us 
down. And the main sensation is that the voter, so it seems, has fallen in 
love with the powers that be.'' 


``That means that pro-government and potentially pro-government forces have 
received a number of votes (in the Duma) which is unprecedented in the new 
Russia.'' 


Moskovsky Komsomolets' banner headline read: ``Muscovites Turned Out in 
Defence of the Mayor.'' It made the most of Mayor Yuri Luzhkov's 
Fatherland-All Russia party trouncing other parties in the capital despite a 
much weaker showing nationwide. 


It also featured more downbeat coverage including a front-page article about 
election organisational problems which it said left some voters ``screaming 
in despair.'' 


******


From: Nancy Herring <nherring@regent.ru>
Subject: ELECTION COMMENT FROM REGENT EUROPEAN SECURITIES
Date: Mon, 20 Dec 1999 


ELECTION RESULTS FROM REGENT EUROPEAN SECURITES
Has the fox won the henhouse?


The new Duma will be a pragmatic Duma, one able to enact legislation no
longer based on failed ideologies but on concrete efforts to end Russia's
malaise. The Duma could finally act on tax reform and banking reform
followed by commercial law reform including improved bankruptcy laws.


But we would like to sound some cautionary notes. It is crucial to look
with a cold eye on just what the policymakers who make up Unity and the
Union of Right Forces have brought Russia. They have brought it capital
flight, flagrant property rights abuses, widespread poverty and a crippled
banking sector. Their commitment to reform and rule of law cannot be taken
for granted.


Pro-Government parties Unity and Union of Right Forces and Zhirnivosky's
Block look set to gain at least 40% of the Duma. FAR and Yabloko, fiercely
anti-Yeltsin have won at least 16% of the Duma. The KPRF has fallen to 25%
of the Duma, not counting single-mandate seats of which they already have
43 out of 225. Pro-Government parties will have to form coalitions to gain
majorities but the barrier is quite low. The Communists have probably been
sidelined to a vociferous minority that may find extremely rare use in
over-riding a Presidential veto. 


*******


Election monitors say Russia poll a step forward

MOSCOW, Dec 20 (Reuters) - International monitors observing Russia's 
parliamentary election said on Monday the voting represented a step forward 
in Russia's democratic process, but they were concerned about bias in the 
media during the campaign. 


``The statement shows that the election system in the Russian Federation has 
reached a new level on its journey to sophistication,'' Helle Degn, head of 
an observer team from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe 
(OSCE), told a news conference where she presented the group's findings. 


06:46 12-20-99
``The voting process has been technically correct and efficient,'' Degn said, 
but she added that both state and private media had proven ``very biased'' 
during the election campaign. 


The OSCE's preliminary statement said the election ``marked significant 
progress for the consolidation of democracy in the Russian Federation.'' But 
it also enumerated irregularities. 


``The pre-election period was marked by a campaign in which candidates and 
the media waged negative attacks on their opponents, often crossing the line 
to slander and libel. In addition, campaign expenditure often appeared to 
exceed legal limits and should be controlled more effectively,'' it said. 


It said officials had also harassed opposition supporters by dismissing them 
from their jobs or by arranging extraordinary tax inspections, administrative 
fines and ``criminal investigations that were subsequently proven 
groundless.'' 


******


Washington Post
20 December 1999
[for personal use only]
Russian Voters Remember No. 6 Kashirskoye Road
By Daniel Williams


MOSCOW, Dec. 19—Few polling places for today's parliamentary vote were 
situated at a more poignant site than the one on Kashirskoye Road in south 
Moscow. Next to a school where the ballots were cast is an open lot marked by 
an iron monument to the dead at what used to be No. 6, House 3.


The apartment building there was blown up in September, one of two destroyed 
by terrorist blasts in the capital, along with two others in provincial 
towns. In all, nearly 300 people died in the explosions, about 120 on 
Kashirskoye Road alone.


The explosions--which Russian authorities, without producing evidence or 
suspects, have blamed on Chechen separatist guerrillas--changed the course of 
Russian politics, providing a powerful rationale for the Russian military's 
offensive in Chechnya. That event, in turn, has sharply boosted the 
popularity of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and the Unity party he backed in 
today's vote.


It is not certain how far the Chechen war can carry Putin--an obscure 
security official just four months ago and now a leading candidate to succeed 
President Boris Yeltsin in next summer's election--or the Unity party, but 
one thing was clear from conversations today with Moscow voters: The search 
for a strong hand to guide Russia is much on their minds.


"I believe that the bloc I voted for will best destroy the bandits who did 
this," said policeman Viktor Bessonov, gesturing to the monument and 
employing the government's derisive term for the Chechen rebels. He cast his 
ballot for Unity.


"The state is the state, and it must be protected," said Galina Garus, a 
retiree who voted for the Fatherland-All Russia list of candidates headed by 
former prime minister Yevgeny Primakov and Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov.


"They're beasts," World War II veteran Vladimir Sokolinsky said of the 
Chechens, as he showed off a billboard of medals on his chest before entering 
a voting booth. "No talks with Chechens, no compromise; they're worse than 
the fascists," Sokolinsky said." His ballot went to the Communists.


Russians largely have been shielded from bad news in Chechnya--a region of 
the northern Caucasus about 1,000 miles south of Moscow--so negative events 
there were unlikely to affect today's balloting. Even the reported deaths of 
more than 100 soldiers last week during an apparent army incursion into 
Grozny, the Chechen capital, made news for only a day in the Russian media; 
no television or newspaper outlet probed the reports closely. In general, the 
media have been supportive of the offensive.


In Chechnya today, Russian forces heavily shelled Grozny, and battles were 
reported at the city's edge, as military chief of staff Gen. Anatoly 
Kvashnin, gave the Interfax news agency an upbeat assessment of the situation 
there. He asserted that the army is in complete control of the flatlands of 
northern and central Chechnya and has begun to penetrate the mountainous 
south. He did not claim army control of any part of Grozny.


Russian authorities have been in communication with representatives of 
Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov, Kvashnin said, but only to reiterate 
long-standing conditions for halting the offensive: The Chechens must 
surrender and hand over "terrorists."


Russian voters, apparently united on the need for strong leadership and for 
crushing Chechen separatism, were also in agreement that the economy needs 
improvement, but some split over a generational issue.


Those who believe governmental experience is important seemed to favor the 
Fatherland-All Russia slate. Primakov, 70, was a Soviet-era bureaucrat, 
foreign intelligence chief under Mikhail Gorbachev and foreign minister under 
Yeltsin before serving as prime minister for nine months. Luzhkov, 63, has 
been involved in Moscow city politics for years and has been mayor since 
1992. Those who believe veteran leaders cannot cope with current problems 
mentioned Unity or the Union of Right Forces, both of which feature younger 
leaders.


"The old don't bother me so much, if they have performed," said Yuri Surinov, 
a Luzhkov backer who described his profession as, "Let's just say commerce." 
Said Andrei Shaposhnik, a policeman: "We need serious, active people. Putin 
fits that description."


The capital was calm as the voting proceeded. By evening, the only untoward 
incident proved to have comic overtones. Police examining a suspicious bag 
left in front of Communist Party headquarters discovered not bombs, but two 
dozen bottles of vodka. Communist representatives complained that someone had 
placed the liquor there to associate Communists with ballot-day 
bribery--offering vodka for votes. "We have nothing to do with this 
provocation," Communist spokesman Anton Vasilchenko said soberly. 


******


New York Times
December 20, 1999
[for personal use only]
Polling Station 1380: Grumbling, Mixed With Hope
By MICHAEL WINES


ST. PETERSBURG, Russia, Dec. 19 -- Her husband walked through mushy snow, 
still in his thick brown knit sleeping shirt, to vote early in Russia's 
parliamentary elections today, but Mariya Chashena, 78 and feeling stiff, was 
in no shape to get out. So this afternoon a delegation of election officials 
trudged to her minuscule second-story walkup and stood sardined in the 
kitchen as she sat beneath a yellowed poster of Russia's czars, and committed 
democracy. 


"Medved! The bear means wealth," she declared, and marked a big "X" on a 
ballot next to an emblem of a prowling bear. An official held out a battered 
gray suitcase, fishing line wrapped around it to prevent tampering, and she 
stuffed her choices through a slot cut in the top, next to the handle. 


"With pleasure," she said solemnly, "I cast my vote." 


This is how Polling Station 1380 helped elect the lower house of Russia's 
Parliament today, with a 40-year-old suitcase and fishing line and, more 
often than not, a good deal of dignity. 


In this once opulent neighborhood near the imposing fortress that was Peter 
the Great's landmark when founding this city, now badly frayed by Soviet 
neglect and capitalist poverty, perhaps half of the 1,450 registered voters 
turned out in winter's half-daylight to cast their ballots. Officials scoured 
the area to take ballots to at least a dozen more shut-ins like Mrs. 
Chashena. 


It was a scene straight out of Norman Rockwell, if one can imagine Norman 
Rockwell in a fur hat and old boots painting the militiamen in camouflage and 
carbines who stood by to ensure order. 


The militia, it must be stressed, were utterly unnecessary. 


"Democracy has given us an end to fear," said Sergei Dimitrievsky, a 
45-year-old worker at a local military plant. "Right now, I am speaking with 
a foreign journalist and nobody is going to call me into his office tomorrow. 
I can do what I want, and I have freedom of choice." 


Mr. Rockwell might have blanched at the leather-jacketed fellow with five 
days' stubble who weaved toward the ballot station exit proclaiming that he 
had voted for democracy, but had forgotten precisely which democratic party 
he supported. 


Then there was Pyotr B. Shelisch, the incumbent legislator and a member of 
the liberal Yabloko party, who said the campaign had been largely free of 
trickery excepting, perhaps, the fire that reduced Yabloko headquarters here 
to cinders last month. 


Still, a day in this Petersburg precinct also suggested that there is much 
about the electoral process -- good and bad -- that a Chicago ward heeler 
would probably recognize. 


There was, first and foremost, a choice: 27 parties on the ballot in all. 
There were Stalinists, two women's parties, several flavors of Communists and 
even a vanity party, wholly owned and operated by a Trumpian tycoon whose 
portrait graces his personal brand of vodka. 


Nationwide, only a handful were clear favorites: the Communist Party of the 
Russian Federation; Fatherland/All Russia, an anti-Kremlin coalition led by 
the mayor of Moscow and former Prime Minister Yevgeny M. Primakov; and the 
pro-Kremlin Unity Party, also known as Medved -- or Bear -- from its symbol. 


Russia's two foremost parties advocating Western-style democracy, Yabloko and 
the Union of Right Forces, are less popular. But polls forecast that they 
were likely to gather the minimum 5 percent of votes necessary to win the 
status in Parliament of a party bloc. 


In the crumbling high school that served as a polling place, lined up along 
the familiar institutional green walls, were observers from various parties 
watching for cheating and a few policemen doing nothing much except creating 
a sense of discipline. 


At the end of the hall, in civics-book order, sat a row of men and women 
behind tables decked in red, checking the identity of prospective voters. 
Beyond them stood three voting booths -- less booths, really, than plywood 
dividers draped in red curtains where voters could mark ballots in relative 
privacy. 


There remains a lot about the Russian electoral process to disconcert 
Westerners -- flambéed campaign offices, the lingering use of the Russian 
word for "agitation" to describe campaigning, the voters' complacent 
acceptance of flagrantly corrupted candidates. 


"Anybody who comes into power steals. I know that," said Nina Danilova, a 
45-year-old nurse, after mentioning one candidate who, she said, flaunts four 
fully outfitted Jeeps. 


There also seems little doubt that Russian democracy remains a daffodil in 
the snow. By anyone's measure, the campaign that ended today was brutal and 
often lawless, filled with slanderous attacks and in all likelihood paid for 
with dirty money. 


There is also no doubt that many voters are disgusted. "Democracy has come to 
a dead end in Russia," said Valery Gulya, 48, a radio electronics engineer 
who said he helped build Russia's new Topol nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles 
before he was laid off a year ago. "Russia doesn't have democracy, but 
demokrazha," he added, playing on the word "krazha," or theft. As Mr. Gulya 
complained, he finished voting for Yabloko and its strong anti-corruption 
platform. 


What made the scene at Polling Station 1380 today remarkable was its very 
ordinariness. 


"I came here four years ago," Viktor Fyodorov, a polling official, said as he 
finished delivering a ballot to one elderly shut-in. "The same two chairs 
were in the same place. The same woman voted. Who is to say that anything has 
changed?" 


In a nation whose new democracy falls well short of Western hygienic 
standards, that was a refreshing statement all by itself. 


******


Yeltsin Calls for Respect for Election Results


MOSCOW, December 20 (Itar-Tass) - Russian President Boris Yeltsin had a 
telephone conversation with chairman with the Central Electoral Commission 
Alexander Veshnyakov to discuss the results of the election to the State 
Duma, presidential press secretary Dmitry Yakushkin told Tass. 


He said the president had closely followed the voting. At about two a.m. he 
got in touch with chief of the presidential administration Alexander Voloshin 
who is in the Kremlin. The president continues following the counting of the 
results of the voting. 


"The president is pleased with a high voter turnout," Yakushkin said. 
"However the results of the elections may be interpreted now, this is the 
choice of the people and the president calls on everyone to have respect for 
the election results," Yakushkin said. 


First deputy chief of the presidential administration Igor Shabdurasulov told 
a briefing on Monday that President Boris Yeltsin "has the entire information 
and follows the dynamics" of summing up the results of the voting at the 
election to the State Duma. He said that on Monday morning the president 
talked by phone with chief of the presidential administration Alexander 
Voloshin and Prime Ministers Vladimir Putin. 


******


Disgruntled Moscow mayor confident despite attacks

MOSCOW, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov on Monday blamed a
Kremlin propaganda onslaught for his party's poor showing in Russia's
general election but predicted its tally of seats would go up when
constituency results were announced. 


Luzhkov, joint leader of the Fatherland-All Russia party (OVR) with former
prime minister Yevgeny Primakov, saw his list trailing in third place, with
only half as many votes as the pro-government Unity bloc. 


Luzhkov easily won re-election as mayor of Moscow on Sunday with more than
70 percent of the vote, although the parliamentary election, which saw a
welter of criticism from Kremlin-controlled media, clearly left him bitter. 


``In all probability, we will get a number of seats totally compatible with
Unity, maybe less than the Communists,'' Luzhkov told a news conference. 


``I consider that the results we got were alright. They could have been far
better if it had not been for this completely political pressure (from the
Kremlin),'' Luzhkov added. 


The pro-Kremlin Unity party was the surprise of Sunday's election, opening
up a wide gap on party list voting over OVR, with which it had been
expected to vie closely for second place. 


Half the 450 Duma seats go to constituencies, the other half are allocated
proportionally to parties that win more than five percent. 


With more than 80 percent of the votes counted, Unity was on around 24
percent under the party lists and had 10 seats in constituencies. OVR was
on around 12 percent and 29 seats. 


The Communist Party was beating both, showing just over 24 percent under
party lists and 43 constituency seats. 


Another party which did surprisingly well was the Union of Right-Wing
forces (SPS), heading for fourth place. The parties of ultra-nationalist
Vladimir Zhirinovsky and liberal Grigory Yavlinsky were heading for fifth
and sixth place respectively. 


But Luzhkov insisted that OVR could have done better if not for a Kremlin
campaign, in which leading state television stations heaped criticism on
the Moscow mayor. The Kremlin launched the attacks to cut OVR's vote and
boost that of Unity. 


``SPS was supported (by the Kremlin), quietly, but it was supported.
Zhirinovsky also got the support of the presidential administration. Even a
few representatives of the Communists got support from the presidential
administration,'' Luzhkov said. 


``Imagine how much you have to hate OVR for the Kremlin to side with the
Communists,'' he said, referring to the fierce enmity between President
Boris Yeltsin and a party which has strongly opposed his economic reforms
over the past decade. 



*******


Moscow's Yuri Luzhkov Leads Mayoral Race With 71.5%

Moscow, Dec. 20 (Bloomberg)
-- Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, known for the construction boom that 
transformed the city's skyline and filled in the potholes that scarred its 
streets, won reelection even as the party he leads foundered in the 
parliamentary vote. 


Luzhkov, 63, who built a marble and chrome shopping mall in the shadow of the 
Kremlin and rebuilt the Church of Christ the Savior on the Moscow river 60 
years after it was destroyed by communists, was leading with 71.5 percent of 
the vote, with 90 percent of votes counted. His closest rival, former Prime 
Minister Sergei Kiriyenko, had 11 percent. 


Luzhkov's party, Fatherland-All Russia, won just 11.7 percent to finish in a 
tie for third place in the parliamentary election, according to exit polls. 
Much of the criticism of Fatherland-All Russia focused on Luzhkov's Moscow 
administration. 


Luzhkov ``is very popular in Moscow,'' said Tom Adshead, political analyst at 
Troika Dialog brokerage in Moscow. ``He has a very strong electorate here and 
it shows he wasn't harmed'' by criticism of his administration during the 
campaign. 


Luzhkov is seen by many Muscovites as a leader who gets things done -- and 
his supporters say that Moscow's newly-laid, neon-lit avenues, its efficient 
subway, its ever-expanding skyline and its well-stocked store shelves support 
this reputation. 


Internal Passports 


Luzhkov's critics say he runs the capital city -- with a population of 10.5 
million, it's larger than some European countries -- as his own private 
fiefdom. For example, he maintains, and periodically enforces, Soviet-era 
rules requiring residents to have special residence permits for Moscow, a 
type of ``internal passport'' that Russia's courts have deemed 
unconstitutional. 


Financing high-profile projects in his next term will be much tougher as last 
year's Treasury debt default and the fall of the ruble has slashed the 
earnings of the capital's banks and businesses. 


Moscow's prosperity was fueled by tax revenue from Moscow- based banks and 
brokerages and the Moscow headquarters of Russia's most successful companies, 
mainly in the oil, gas and metals businesses. 


The city's coffers have now shrunk, however, after last year's collapse of 
stock and bond markets based in Moscow led many foreign banks to close their 
offices or to fire most of their employees, while the largest domestic banks 
shut down. 


Financial Base 


The ruble's 76 percent plunge since August 1998 has also slashed revenue of 
Moscow-based companies, and the city. 


Large Moscow-based banks, including SBS Agro, Menatep, and Inkombank, shut 
down after the government defaulted on $40 billion in Treasury debt last 
year, a large part of their portfolios. 


Moscow owns stakes in more than 500 companies, of which 260 companies are 
controlled by the city. City-owned companies include unprofitable car 
factories AO ZIL and AO Moskvitch, which are surviving on the city's 
subsidies and loans. 


Moscow, the first Russian city to sell a Eurobond, said earlier this month it 
will repay its 9.5 percent Eurobond due in May 2000. Moscow said it bought 
back 219.33 million of the Eurobond and will repay the remaining $280.67 
million on May 31, 2000 when it comes due. The 9.5 percent $500 million bond 
is due May 31, 2000. 


Moscow has three Eurobonds outstanding -- a 500 million deutsche mark bond 
($257 million), a $500 million bond, and a 400 million lira ($207.5 million) 
bond. 


Man of Action 


Luzhkov's election slogan was that he is a man of action rather than words. 
Luzhkov often goes his own way, ignoring government policies. When the 
Russian ruble plunged 60 percent against the dollar in August and September 
1998, Luzhkov imposed citywide price limits on staple foods, defying federal 
policy. 


Luzhkov, whose family has lived in Moscow for several generations, won the 
mayor's office in 1996 by a landslide vote of almost 90 percent. 


By then, he had been involved in running Russia's capital for nine years -- 
as deputy head of the city administration, first appointed by the city 
assembly, and then re-appointed by Moscow's first popularly elected mayor, 
Gavriil Popov. 


Outside the capital, Luzhkov is seen as a regional figure rather than a 
national leader and Fatherland-All Russia, the political party he helped lead 
into parliamentary elections, was damaged by allegations of corruption and 
criminality leveled against Luzhkov himself by national television stations. 


``In a sense, Luzhkov has lost considerably since (1996),'' said Eric Kraus, 
chief strategist at Nikoil Capital Markets in Moscow. ``The astonishing thing 
is how badly his party did.'' 


******


ANALYSIS-Russian poll boosts PM's presidency bid
By Timothy Heritage

MOSCOW, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Vladimir Putin emerged on Monday as 
the big winner from Russia's general election, his hopes of becoming 
president boosted by the strong showing of parties which back him. 


"He won the first round of his presidential campaign," said Sergei Stepashin, 
whom Putin succeeded as premier last August. 


The outcome was a relief for the Kremlin, which a few months ago appeared to 
have no suitable candidate to represent its interests in the presidential 
election next June when Boris Yeltsin leaves the post he has held since 1991. 


Putin has filled that void. Yeltsin has named him as his preferred successor 
and he has become Russia's most popular politican thanks to gains in the war 
against separatists in the rebellious Chechnya region. 


Sunday's election to the State Duma lower house has given him a rare chance 
of having a parliament that broadly cooperates with the government instead of 
trying to check its programme. 


Before the election he loudly backed the centrist Unity (Yedinstvo) party, 
which responded by winning about a quarter of the votes -- roughly the same 
as the opposition Communists. 


The surge of the pro-government Union Of Right-Wing Forces (SPS) led by 
former Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko was an additional, unexpected boost 
for Putin that could shift the balance away from the Communists in their Duma 
powerbase. 


Just as significantly, one of Putin's main challengers for the presidency, 
former prime minister Yevgeny Primakov, suffered a major setback to the 
presidential campaign which he announced only three days ago. 


Primakov's centrist Fatherland-All Russia (OVR) party was left struggling 
even to secure third place and its gloom was relieved only by its other 
leading light, Yuri Luzhkov, being re-elected Moscow mayor. 


"The Kremlin achieved all that it set out to, with the one exception that for 
full victory it needed Luzhkov to lose or at least to be forced into a second 
round (and not win an easy victory)," said political analyst Andranik 
Migranyan. 


DRESS REHEARSAL FOR PRESIDENTIAL POLL 


The Duma election has always been regarded as a dress rehearsal for the 
battle for the presidency because Russia's 1993 constitution, shaped to suit 
Yeltsin, gives parliament few teeth and puts real power in the hands of the 
president. 


Even so, the Communists came close last May to impeaching the president, 
using one of its few genuine levers of power. 


If, as seems likely, the Communists' grip on parliament has been weakened, it 
will be unable to seriously challenge Putin's right to remain prime minister 
or to call a no-confidence vote. 


The Communists, who are likely to ask party leader Gennady Zyuganov to be 
their presidential candidate despite his defeat to Yeltsin in 1996, would 
have relied on such tactics to impress their supporters and attract potential 
voters for the June vote. 


Putin, 47, can also take heart from the fact that parties led by other likely 
challengers such as liberal Grigory Yavlinsky and nationalist Vladmimir 
Zhirinovsky made no major gains. 


"Putin is the strongest presidential candidate," said Anatoly Chubais, a 
well-known reformer who ran the SPS campaign. 


He predicted a new dawn for economic reforms under Putin and the new Duma 
saying: "There is an absolutely real possibility from this point, from the 
end of this year or early next year, to start the real, deep, long-term 
revival of the country." 


CHECHNYA, YELTSIN KEY FOR PUTIN 


Six months is a long time in Russian politics -- Yeltsin rose in half a year 
from almost zero ratings to win the 1996 election, and Putin was almost 
unheard of six months ago -- and much will depend on how the war in Chechnya 
goes. 


"Destroying terrorism in Chechnya is, of course, the basis of continued 
support for Putin," Chubais said. "Any failure by Putin in Chechnya would be 
a very grave factor." 


Any failure of the centrist and right-of-centre parties to unite would also 
reduce his chances of a soft ride in parliament, give the Communists a 
greater chance to attack him and potentially undermine support for Putin. 


Yeltsin, an increasingly unpredictable force at 68, could also have a 
decisive influence over the election. 


As long as Putin retains Yeltsin's support, the prime minister will have the 
powerful Kremlin machinery and state-controlled media behind him -- key 
factors in the OVR's disappointing result, in the rise of the three-month-old 
Unity bloc and in Yeltsin's re-election in 1996. 


The key for Putin will be to keep Yeltsin happy. Several apparent heirs have 
disappeared from view entirely and the impulsive president has guards power 
jealously, as Primakov discovered when he was sacked earlier this year after 
Yeltsin grew wary of his rising power and popularity. 


*******