November 17, 1999    
This Date's Issues: 3628 •3629  •

Johnson's Russia List
#3629
17 November 1999
davidjohnson@erols.com


[Note from David Johnson:
1. The Guardian: Jonathan Steele, The dream goes cold. Russia's
warmongering 
in the Caucasus has ended hopes for greater progress on European security.
2. Nezavisimaya Gazeta: The Strict Logic Of Presidential U-Turns.
3. Reuters: Maria Eismont, Refguees escape ``hell'' of Chechen village.
4. RFE/RL: Lily Hyde, Ukraine: Observers Criticize Presidential Election, 
Campaign.
5. Interfax: KUCHMA'S REELECTION SECURED BY CORRUPT SYSTEM - COMMUNIST
LEADER.
6. Hasmik Khalapian: Re Menshikov on Caususus.
7. St. Petersburg Times: Brian Whitmore, Is Putin In, Is He Out? Does
Anyone 
Care? 
8. Stratfor Commentary: Chechnya Threatens to Eclipse OSCE Summit.
9. U.S. MISSION TO THE OSCE: Statement on Chechnya.
10. The Guardian (UK) letter: Russia's 'just war'
11. Bloomberg: Russian Grain Harvest Rises 11% This Year, Short of Demand.
12. Reuters: Putin says no war in Chechnya, no attack on Grozny.
13. Reuters: Clinton to urge political solution in Chechnya.
14. APF: Chechnya standoff threatens European security summit.
15. Washington Times: David Sands and Andrew Cain, Chechnya talks seen as 
last chance to avert catastrophe.]


*******


#1
The Guardian (UK)
November 17, 1999
[for personal use only]
The dream goes cold 
Russia's warmongering in the Caucasus has ended hopes for greater progress
on European security 
BY Jonathan Steele


Time was when the Russians had a dream. As the cold war ended, Europe's
heavily armed military blocks would disappear in favour of a single,
all-inclusive organisation to safeguard the continent's security. It would
be a kind of regional UN in which every European state would have equal
rights. Unlike the UN, no country would have a veto, or rather, every
country would have one since the new body would act by means of consensus. 


This wonderful creation would be called the Organisation for Security and
Co-operation in Europe, and in the battle of the acronyms OSCE would soon
overtake Nato as a household concept. For, of course, Nato would disband
once the east-west conflict in Europe was over. The "common European home"
which Mikhail Gorbachev had talked of in the mid-80s would be a reality. 


The dream was not confined to Russia. In western Europe many optimists also
wanted a Europe without armed camps and with dramatically reduced defence
budgets. Alas, it did not work out. Fearful of a trend which could lead to
its being squeezed out of Europe, the Clinton administration insisted on
maintaining Nato and indeed enlarging it as an instrument of America's
imperial supremacy. 


But if dream number one faded fast, there was still a chance for more
modest goals. The OSCE was launched, and as all the former Soviet republics
became independent, it stretched to the Caucasus and Central Asia. Perhaps
it could develop, if not as a substitute for Nato, at least in parallel to
it. Using the legitimacy which it had by virtue of its universal
membership, maybe it could become a powerful tool for crisis prevention,
confidence-building and mediation in conflicts. It might observe elections,
promote higher standards of human rights, and provide ceasefire monitors
and experts in the law, the media, and the police to move quickly into
postwar vacuums, such as Bosnia and Kosovo. While Nato remained as the
military enforcer, the OSCE could do the more delicate work of
state-building, ethnic conciliation and professional training. 


For a time this seemed to be happening, although the OSCE was never funded
adequately. It supplied observers in Kosovo who exercised some form of
restraint on Serb atrocities before they were pulled out in advance of
Nato's air strikes. It came close to brokering a settlement between
Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, until the assassinations in
the Armenian parliament last month threw everything into confusion. It has
produced important election reports, including the latest one this weekend
in Ukraine which is replete with accounts of an astonishing scale of
ballot-rigging. 


Another stage in the OSCE's desirable rise should have been reached at this
week's summit in Istanbul. The Russians had a real chance to press for a
more effective OSCE to "play the primary role in unifying our continent",
as they put it. Yet now, by their excessive use of force in Chechnya, they
have destroyed any hope of serious progress at Istanbul and put themselves
on the defensive rather than taking the high ground. They have shown
contempt for the OSCE by refusing its request to send a mission to the area. 


Earlier this year President Yeltsin put forward a new "concept" for
security in the 21st century. It was an admirable document which argued
that "human rights issues cannot be considered as falling under the
exclusive internal jurisdiction of states". Now the Russian authorities
accuse the critics of their Chechen operations of interfering. The document
said a prerequisite for humanising international relations was "to minimise
human suffering in the course of armed conflicts". Now Russian forces uses
long-range artillery and rocket attacks on population centres as a
substitute for genuine counter-terrorist measures. For a time they even
blocked the exodus of thousands of civilian refugees. 


One can understand the Russian drive to restore their presence in the
Caucasus. It is one more in the long string of bad consequences which
western critics of Nato's expansion predicted. If in 1991 Moscow was
willing to retreat from empire in a relatively relaxed way, they now have a
justified fear that Nato is eager to replace them in the Caucasus and
Central Asia. The US drive to weaken Russia as a strategic player
manifestly did not stop with the cold war's end. 


But Boris Yeltsin is helping the process himself by wasting the country's
resources and destroying its image. The charitable explanation is that the
president had no idea what his foreign policy advisers had put into the new
security concept. The malign version is that he did not care. In his
eagerness to get a compliant successor in the Kremlin, Yeltsin decided that
to turn the struggle against terrorism into full-scale war in the Caucasus
would be the best way to boost Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. So far,
according to the Russian opinion polls, it seems to be working. And along
with the corpses of hundreds of Chechen civilians, the hopes for a stronger
OSCE also lie dead.


*******


#2
Russia Today press summaries
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
17 November 1999
The Strict Logic Of Presidential U-Turns
BORIS YELTSIN IS PREPARING TO LEAVE - HIS ACTIONS IN THE PAST YEAR AND A
HALF WERE ONLY DICTATED BY THIS CONCERN


Summary
The hidden logic of Boris Yeltsin's actions in the past year have seemed
both bizarre and absurd to many observers. In reality, there is strong
logic underlying all reshuffles and appointments, which the President
himself once called a "U-turn".


The logic is that the President of Russia does not want to leave certain
problems unsolved after his term ends. Boris Yeltsin started to think about
what would follow him in early 1998. The President dismissed Chernomyrdin
from the prime minister's post because he felt Chernomyrdin didn’t have
enough political will to become his true successor. Then, for a short term,
Boris Yeltsin became a fan of the "young reformists", which resulted in the
appointment of Sergey Kirienko, who also disappointed him.


The President was primarily thinking about the problem of Chechnya, which
has been his greatest failure. But premier Primakov was again too cautious
and indecisive, and his ally Luzhkov even spoke in favor of granting
independence to the rebels. Thus, Yeltsin started to look for a brave
general who would return constitutional order to the republic. He first
chose Stepashin, but it appeared that the former Interior Minister still
had "defeat syndrome" after the first Chechen war. And finally, Putin was
chosen as a politician who could solve the four main problems the President
was pondering. These problems are: Chechnya, the Communists, Belarus and
his successor.


With Putin's high rating, the Communists no longer pose a threat to take
power in the country. And the prime minister has a ready plan with respect
to Belarus, which has secured its union with Russia already under Yeltsin.


*******


#3
Refguees escape ``hell'' of Chechen village
By Maria Eismont

SAMASHKI, Russia, Nov 17 (Reuters) - ``Nine days ago I came back to the
village because they said they would not bombard it. The nine days I spent
here were such hell that nothing will persuade me to return.'' 


Magomed, 55, spoke these words as he tramped away from the village of
Samashki in the breakaway region of Chechnya, a community coming under
virtually constant fire from Russian artillery positions on a nearby ridge. 


Thirty minutes before this reporter arrived in the village, it was hit by
the latest bombardment. 


Local residents said three people died and five were wounded. People flee
into cellars, afraid of the shells they expect to come crashing down during
the day and night. 


Magomed said he was heading to the neighbouring region of Ingushetia to
join the around 200,000 other Chechen refugees who have fled Russia's
seven-week campaign of air raids, infantry advances and artillery attacks. 


He said he would have to walk to the border, a few kilometres (miles) away
as he was afraid to use a vehicle in case it was attacked. 


People in this village say they are being bombarded every day and night. 


Russian forces have relentlessly pressed their advance into Chechnya, with
troops pushing forward from the west, north and east. 


Moscow says it is pursuing Moslem rebels who twice invaded a neighbouring
region and whom it accuses of devastating bomb blasts in Russian towns. The
rebels deny causing the blasts. 


Russia has said it also wants to restore control over Chechnya, which its
forces were forced to flee after a failed 1994-96 war against Chechen
separatists. 


The Chechen capital Grozny is gradually being caught in a pincer of troops
and armour and Russian forces are advancing also into regions southwest of
the city. 


The deputy head of the administration of Samashki, Mulat Barshigov, said he
was assured by a Russian general, Vladimir Shamanov, that his village would
not be attacked. 


``Many people returned and now they are shooting again. It is impossible,''
he said. Ninety people had died in the village and 120 houses had been
destroyed, he said. 


In one cellar, between 100 and 150 people gather every night, lying on
mattresses, sheltering from the shells. 


``They (Russia) consider they are fighting. This is not a war. If there
were 20 (Chechen) fighters here they would not come here ever,'' she said. 


``Now they are fighting against us. I am already tired from dragging my
five children around villages. There is no village which is not being
bombarded.'' 


*******


#4
Ukraine: Observers Criticize Presidential Election, Campaign
By Lily Hyde


The Sunday runoff vote in Ukraine has resulted in the re-election of 
President Leonid Kuchma. After the first round two weeks ago, international 
observers announced some shortcomings in the conduct of the vote but said 
that they had not changed the outcome. RFE/RL's Lily Hyde reports from Kyiv 
that observers are offering a more critical appraisal of the second round. 


Kyiv, 16 November 1999 (RFE/RL) -- Domestic and international observers 
announced yesterday that voting in the second round of the presidential 
elections had been marred by more violations than in the first round. 


The Committee of Ukrainian Voters, the Organization for Security and 
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the Council of Europe have issued a joint 
statement calling attention to several concerns. They include multiple 
voting, students and soldiers being made to vote according to lists, and an 
increased number of unauthorized people in polling stations, including 
representatives from the State security service, the SBU. However, the 
organizations said the violations were not widespread.


The organizations all saved their main criticisms for the election campaign. 
They concluded that activities of local administrations in the election 
process had increased. They also called attention to the so-called 
"resignation" of several heads of local administrations after the first round 
in areas where Kuchma's opponents received more votes than the incumbent. An 
OSCE statement issued yesterday said that these resignations "have particular 
significance given the observed level of interference in the campaign by the 
state administration."


Hanne Severinson, a long-term Ukraine rapporteur from the Council of Europe's 
Parliamentary Assembly, used strong words in her comment condemning breaches 
of Ukraine's election laws and international agreements. She spoke to 
reporters at a news conference in Kyiv held jointly with other observers.


"The conduct of the campaign got worse between the two rounds. Neither an 
unfair campaign nor attempts at intimidation nor the abuse of state power can 
detract from the fact that people turned out to vote in impressive numbers. 
The Ukrainian people have shown their trust in the democratic process. But 
the non-neutrality of the state in the election process must soon destroy 
this trust. The voluntariness of the resignation of three regional governors 
between the first and second round, their regions having returned results 
unfavorable to the outgoing president, defies belief. So do polling station 
turnout figures of 99 percent, the figures of 98 percent in support for one 
or the other candidate."


OSCE observers, and Severinson herself, said they witnessed multiple voting, 
especially in Western Ukraine, where Kuchma got returns of 96 and 98 percent 
in some regions. According to Severinson, some polling stations registered 
voting attendance of over 100 percent. Also in West Ukraine, students in 
hostels were forced to vote. Kuchma's victory largely relied on the support 
of young voters and of Western Ukrainians, while Communist Petro Symonenko, 
led the vote in the Russian-speaking East and in the Crimea.


The OSCE statement referred to documented cases of the militia canvassing 
door-to-door for Kuchma, and of organized coercion of state employees in 
education and health institutions. The Committee of Ukrainian Voters 
concluded that violations by government officials on voting day were the 
ad-hoc work of a panicked state administration afraid of losing their jobs 
like the unfortunate governors. But the OSCE produced a Telex from the 
Interior Ministry to local administrations. The telex required local 
administrations to report back to the Interior Ministry on meetings and 
canvassing they had organized on Kuchma's behalf, and to give figures for 
definite positive votes for Kuchma.


An official with the OSCE mission in Ukraine, Simon Osborn, says the evident 
disregard for the election law by state organizations, especially the militia 
who are supposed to uphold the law, is the most alarming aspect of the 
election violations. He also spoke at the observers' joint news conference.


"One of the concerns that I think we all have is that so many people seem to 
have been able to abuse the law and seem to get away with it, and I think 
that is not a helpful development in the move towards democracy in this 
country."


Observers said the large margin between Kuchma and Symonenko meant the 
results could not be immediately questioned despite some fraud on election 
day and an unfair campaign. Both the Council of Europe and the OSCE said they 
had already made many of their observations known to the authorities, and 
would continue to arrange meetings to discuss the OSCE report. Osborn praised 
Ukraine's Central Election Commission for already acting on many OSCE 
recommendations after the first round. But both OSCE and Council of Europe 
representatives were openly discouraged by what they viewed as the disregard 
for international advice shown by the Ukrainian government.


The Council of Europe's John Hartland says that both his organization and the 
OSCE have observed three elections in Ukraine, and have watched over a 
worsening in democratic practices.


"For us more important is the fact that some remarks which were made by the 
Council of Europe and also by the OSCE team before the first round and now, 
were not taken into consideration in this country, from the administration 
for instance, and this is a very big problem. Their results will be used I'm 
very sure also in the Council of Europe next time concerning Ukraine and also 
concerning other countries. There were delegations from the Council of Europe 
in the first round and the second round, we're trying to do our best to help, 
but unfortunately the situation is going to be worse."


Ukraine is not obliged to take any notice of what the OSCE or the Council of 
Europe says, and has already shown a disregard for the Council's criticisms. 
The parliamentary assembly has repeatedly threatened to cancel Ukraine's 
membership for failing to reform laws, repeal the death penalty and protect 
independent media. But Ukraine has still not complied with the Council of 
Europe's requirements. 


******


#5
KUCHMA'S REELECTION SECURED BY CORRUPT SYSTEM - COMMUNIST LEADER


KIEV. Nov 15 (Interfax-Ukraine) - Sunday presidential elections in
Ukraine were not won by Leonid Kuchma but a corrupt power system, his
rival and Communist Party leader Pyotr Simonenko has said.
During a Monday Internet chat organized by the UNIAN agency and
UkraSat company he said his party did not lose the elections.
"We did our utmost. Given the enormous pressure exerted on us we
did the impossible - practically 40% of the population did not fear to
openly vote for effective changes in Ukraine," he said.
"It was not Leonid Kuchma who won the elections, but certain
oligarchic clans and a system of corrupt power who fought to remain in
power, not for the nation to express its opinion. In Donetsk,
Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and Kiev regions the clans waged a stubborn
struggle to keep the levers of influence on the formation of the
economic policy. In a month or two it will become clear how all of this
will end up for Ukraine, it will become clear who had what objectives in
the elections," Simonenko said.
He placed political responsibility for the future of Ukraine on
centrist and right-wing forces which supported the incumbent president.
He claimed they encouraged the crude violation of law and the growing
influence of certain clans which expressed themselves during the
election campaign.
Once again, Simonenko said that he is opposed to Communists joining
a coalition government, if such should be formed, and will defend his
opinion at the party plenum.
Asked about the probability of the ouster of the parliament
leadership he said that the Communist faction will be strongly resisting
such actions. He said he would work for this not to happen. "This is
being done to transform parliament into a department of the presidential
administration," he said.
Simonenko expressed the opinion that the probability of the
parliament ouster depends on how many deputies will be acting at the
bidding of executive power and the presidential entourage.
He was opposed to the idea of a bicameral parliament expressed by
Kuchma, saying that it would lead to a tragedy for Ukraine. Simonenko
said the absence of a true regional policy is a threat. He fears this
may lead to the aggravation of the situation in the south of the country
because then Crimea would become a national autonomy.


*******


#6
From: "Hasmik Khalapian" <hasmikk@hotmail.com>
To: menshikov@i4.auc.dk
Subject: Your Comments in JRL #3626
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 


Dear Mr. Menshikov,


It's not Russophobia that West suffers from. It is Eastophobia. West 
always comforts itself by looking at the mistakes made in the east. The 
message is, "Russians are bombing Checnya and there are many civilian 
casualties, so we, Nato guys, are not really that bad." West's hypocrisy 
knows no bounds. West just cannot let its colonial past go. I read 
articles about Armenia in British and American newspapers, and keep 
wondering where they got the information from. If you do not read the 
reporters' names or the newspaper titles, you will think that all the 
articles were written by one and the same person. This is how brainwashed 
the western mass media is, that model of freedom of speech which Communists 
claimed to be fake, but we, suspicions citizens of USSR, refused to believe 
them.


Not for one second the western media hesitated to connect the slain at the 
Armenian Parliament to the events in Chechnya. Some refer to Armenia as 
they do to Chechnya without even acknowledging that Armenia, unlike 
Chechnya, is not a part of Russia. The west rushed to make conclusions - 
violent, terrorist Caucasians. And I thought, come on, ex-imperialists, you 
can't call names at the end of 20th century. It's time to look at your own 
violence. The United States forgot about the violence in the US, the attack 
in the US Congress, presidential assassinations, shooting at schools, 
church, elsewhere. The UK forgot its recent imperialist past and violence 
in India, African countries and where not? The Western media blaming 
Russians for increasing racism against dark-skinned Caucasians after the 
explosion of the buildings in Russia, started to make racist conclusions 
speaking of all the peoples in Caucasus as a whole, generalizing the whole 
region. The Western media representatives have aparently taken their 
classes of geography more seriously than the lessons of history and culture. 
They suffer from what, Edward Said, a humanist, called 'orientalism.'


And, you are absolutely right - Armenia asked Russia to protect her from 
Ottoman Empire. Every Armenian up to these days, is very thankful to 
Russians for their military support on the days when the west was watching 
how hundreds of thousands of Armenians were being massacred.


One more thing: you mention only Texas's occupation by the US. There is 
also California, which the US occupied practically by "cheating" Mexicans. 
Most Americans today are irritated by the Mexican presence in California. 
Not for one second they think that these people have in fact always been 
there. In fact, many of them don't even know that California used to be 
Mexican. Can you find a map of the United States without Texas and 
Califoria? At least, I have failed to.


******


#7
St. Petersburg Times
November 16, 1999 
Is Putin In, Is He Out? Does Anyone Care? 
By Brian Whitmore


PRESIDENT Boris Yelt sin's ringing endorsement of Vla dimir Putin on Sunday
night caught everybody off guard. 


Clutching the diminutive prime minister's arm in front of the cameras,
Yeltsin said forcefully and unequivocally that he wanted Putin to succeed
him as president. 


Moscow's favorite political parlor game of late has become trying to figure
out who has the upper hand among the capital's battling clans as they angle
to control the post-Yeltsin succession. 


In one corner, there is tycoon Boris Berezovsky, first daughter Tatyana
Dyachenko and the infamous "Family." The Family can count on the Kremlin's
administrative might, plus the financial backing of its cronies who run
"privatized" natural resource monopolies. It can also count on propaganda
support from television stations like RTR and ORT. 


In another corner there is Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov, ex-Prime Minister
Yevgeny Primakov and the opposition Fatherland-All Russia movement of
regional leaders. The Fatherland crew can count on the capital's
considerable financial and media resources, plus the political machines
Luzh kov's allies have built up in the regions. 


And then there is Putin. 


When St. Petersburg's ex-deputy mayor was appointed prime minister, the
conventional wisdom was that he was an agent of Yeltsin's family. Since
then, Putin has gone from being the president's boy to being his own man
with his own political base - Russia's military and powerful security
services. His popularity soared as the war he started in Chechnya
continued. The generals appear to be in love. 


And this made the family, most notably Berezovsky, very nervous.
Berezovsky's media empire had already managed to weaken their primary
rivals, Luzhkov and Pri makov, considerably. 


Lately, this media subtly turned on Putin. Some newspapers reported that
the war was going worse than the PM was letting on. Others hinted Putin was
on the way out. 


Then the Kremlin announced - with Putin out of town - that it was ready for
peace talks with Chech nya. And when state television started building up
Emergency Minister Sergei Shoigu as Russia's emerging star, it looked like
Putin was toast. 


Power in Yeltsinite Russia lies in control of the "cash flows" from export
oriented and hard-currency making natural resource enterprises. Here the
prime minister has nothing. His weakness among Russia's powerful
financial-industrial groups and his inability to influence the country's
state-owned enterprises make him particularly vulnerable. 


This was starkly illustrated in September when Putin was unable to prevent
the firing of Dmitry Savelyev, head of state-owned Transneft, who was
ousted in a much-publicized coup orchestrated by First Deputy Prime
Minister Nikolai Aksyonenko, a Bere zovsky ally, while Putin was out of
Moscow. 


So how to explain Yeltsin's demonstrative public support for Putin on Sunday? 


The president often publicly praises his prime ministers before sacking
them. There is also talk of a split in the family between those who trust
Putin (Dyachenko) and those who don't (Berezovsky). 


But the saddest thing is that at the end of the day, one has to wonder if
any of this really matters at all. Does it really make any difference if
one ex-KGB spy (Putin) or another (Primakov) runs Russia? Does it really
matter whether one corrupt oligarchic clan (the Family) or another
(Luzhkov's) gets all the goodies that come with power here? 


******


#8
Stratfor Commentary
0118 GMT, 991117 ­ Chechnya Threatens to Eclipse OSCE Summit


Russia’s campaign in Chechnya threatens to overshadow the agenda for the
upcoming Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) summit
in Istanbul. If Chechnya becomes the central point of debate, a delicate
situation will emerge. The West would like to curb Russian force in
Chechnya, and Russia is prepared to resist. A diplomatic approach and
successful conclusion of the meeting is to everyone’s advantage, but the
OSCE summit will provide a stage for the next episode in the escalating
political war between Russia and the West. 


The OSCE meeting, scheduled for Nov. 18-19, will be held in Istanbul with
4,000 participants from 54 member countries, and will include Russian
President Boris Yeltsin and U.S. President Bill Clinton. Two agreements on
the table, which affect all member states, are the European Security
Charter and the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. Several issues
of regional concern to the CIS states are also on the agenda. Among these
are the U.N. sanctions against Serbia, the embattled Georgian region of
Abkhazia, the trans-Caspian oil pipeline and the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline
project, and the ethnic-Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.


In spite of the significance of these issues, Russia’s war to retake
Chechnya will command attention. Several leaders, both Western and CIS,
announced they would raise the question of Chechnya at the summit. Georgia
and Azerbaijan are worried the fighting will spread south into their
territories. The West is concerned about Chechnya because of the potential
for humanitarian catastrophe, the region’s continued instability and the
indiscriminate use of force against the Islamic guerrillas. 


Russia is also preparing to broach the Chechen issue. It has begun to
resist the Western-backed CFE Treaty, which will give the West
justification to condemn Russia’s actions in Chechnya. The treaty limits
the forces a country may have in one region. Russia says the treaty accepts
NATO’s attack on Kosovo as the norm and will empower the international
community to interfere in similar internal conflicts. According to Russian
Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov in an Interfax interview, this will allow NATO
to act as "world policeman" and therefore intervene in Chechnya as well.
Russia threatened to block the CFE Treaty in its current form. 


Clinton warned Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin about Moscow’s
campaign in Chechnya when they met in Oslo Nov. 2., but he was coldly
received. In the days preceding the summit, Russian officials have set the
stage for confrontation. Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said on Russian TV,
"If anyone in Istanbul attempts to alter the existing agenda in any way
whatsoever … and tries to play the Chechen card, then, I think those states
will bear total responsibility for how the meeting goes. I hope that common
sense and reason will prevail, together with concern for European
security." The West had avoided harsh criticism of Russian force in
Chechnya, but as the fighting escalates, so do the tensions. 


Putin’s popularity has also paralleled the escalation in Chechnya, and he
took advantage of it this week by officially announcing his candidacy for
president. The political atmosphere in Russia right now has swung in the
nationalist direction. Putin’s defiant attitude toward Chechen terrorists
and Western criticism has solidified the Russian nationalist support for
Putin and his Chechen campaign. 


It has been increasingly clear that Russian leaders, especially Putin, will
not stand for Western criticism of anti-terrorist action in Chechnya. If
the West comes down on Russia for the Chechen conflict, Russia may storm
out of the summit. The most diplomatic option, although difficult to
achieve, would be for the West to follow the original agenda publicly and
raise the Chechen issue with Russia behind closed doors. Both sides want to
assert their opinions, yet neither wants to be overpowered. 


In advance of the summit, both Russia and the West are digging in to
support their sides on the Chechen conflict. If the West openly censures
Russia, it can expect strong resistance. At the very least, Russia will
withhold its approval of the CFE Treaty. In either circumstance, the OSCE
summit over the next few days will become the next political battleground
between Russia and the West. 


*******


#9
US Department of State
16 November 1999 
Text: Russian Operation in Chechnya Clouds OSCE Meetings 
(Rosenblatt urges restraint, dialogue) (760)


Josiah Rosenblatt, deputy chief of the U.S. mission to the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), said
November 16 that Russia's "disproportionate" military campaign in
Chechnya "hangs over our deliberations."


Rosenblatt made his remarks at the OSCE Forum for Security Cooperation
in Istanbul, where the OSCE Summit will be held November 18-19.


While Russia, like every other nation, has the right to defend its
territory and citizens from terrorism, Rosenblatt said, that right
does not extend to "indiscriminate use of military force" without
regard to civilian casualties.


"The United States therefore strongly urges the Russian Federation to
exercise restraint, and to redouble its efforts to avoid both the
indiscriminate and disproportionate use of force and further injury to
civilians and their property," Rosenblatt said.


He also criticized Russia for being "wedded to the idea of solving the
problem they face in Chechnya through purely military means. There
needs to be -- sooner rather than later -- a political dialogue
between Russian authorities and legitimate Chechen partners that
ultimately leads to a political resolution of this situation,"
Rosenblatt said.


Following is the text of Rosenblatt's statement:


(begin text)


U.S. MISSION TO THE OSCE
November 16, 1999


Statement on Chechnya
Delivered by Deputy Chief of Mission Josiah Rosenblatt
to the OSCE Forum for Security Cooperation, Istanbul


Mr. Chairman, the shadow of the Russian military's continuing
disproportionate use of force in Chechnya hangs over our deliberations
in the Forum today. We remain disturbed by information -- including
accounts from refugees to the Chairmanship fact-finding mission --
about the indiscriminate use of military force that has struck
civilian targets and victimized the civilian population. We find, as
did the Chairmanship's Mission, these accounts to be credible by their
frequency and consistency.


While we have made clear that Russia has the right to defend its
territorial integrity and to combat terrorism, our acknowledgment of
these objectives does not extend to condoning civilian casualties.


The United States therefore strongly urges the Russian Federation to
exercise restraint, and to redouble its efforts to avoid both the
indiscriminate and disproportionate use of force and further injury to
civilians and their property, consistent with its commitments in
paragraph 36 of the Code of Conduct.


We are also deeply concerned that Russian authorities seem to remain
wedded to the idea of solving the problem they face in Chechnya
through purely military means, and worry that the recent entry of
Russian forces into Gudermes will further encourage those who advocate
this approach.


There needs to be -- sooner rather than later -- a political dialogue
between Russian authorities and legitimate Chechen partners that
ultimately leads to a political resolution of this situation.


We urge the Russian government -- bearing in mind its commitments in
paragraph 19 of the Code of Conduct -- to pursue urgently a political
solution to the conflict. The United State remains convinced that only
through a political settlement will it be possible for the Russian
Federation to achieve durable stability and security in the region. We
encourage Russia to look at how the OSCE can play a useful role.


We also urge Russian authorities, consistent with their commitments in
paragraph 19 of the Code of Conduct, to facilitate the movement of
displaced persons and humanitarian assistance in order to alleviate
the suffering of the civilian population of Chechnya. It is critical
that Russia deal with the immediate humanitarian problem, particularly
with the onset of winter weather in the area.


Finally, Mr. Chairman, we call on the Russian Federation to remain
transparent regarding its concentration of forces and military
operations in the North Caucasus. The Russian Federation's October 28
Vienna Document notification was an important step toward compliance
with its Vienna Document commitments. Developments in the operations
of Russian forces in the North Caucasus since October 28 indicate that
the overall operation may have entered a new phase. We therefore
encourage the Russian Federation to update its notification as
circumstances evolve.


We would also be interested in hearing from the Russian Federation
about its plans to issue invitations to an observation of this
military activity, as was noted in the notification of October 28.
Such transparency, consistent with the Vienna Document, will
contribute to our ability -- as individual states and as an
organization -- to assess thoroughly this situation, which is of
concern to all OSCE states.


Thank you, Mr. Chairman.


******


#10
The Guardian (UK)
17 November 1999
Letter
Russia's 'just war' 


Your leader (November 10), implies that a "weak" Russian premier, Vladimir 
Putin, is being manipulated by hawkish generals into cranking up the 
hostilities in Chechnya. In fact a strong Russian premier is taking decisive 
action to re-establish law and order in a republic ravished by terrorism and 
corrupt bandits - the kind that did not flinch at beheading British Telecom 
engineers not so long ago. Far from being "weak", Mr Putinhas laid out a most 
active vision for a regenerated Russian Federation at peace with itself and 
free of the ravages of poverty, corruption and, most pertinently, terrorism. 


The premier stressed the difficulties for Russia in getting its message over 
beyond its borders where "regrettably, far from all forces abroad want Russia 
to be a powerful and great state ... Our geopolitical opponents are using the 
north Caucasian problems to keep Russia in check. To make it more compliant 
during the handling of other problems." 


Those calling for talks with the Chechen terrorists and mafia must ask if the 
Americans would sit down with Bin Laden. No, they struck at bases far outside 
US territory, not to mention violating the UN charter and international law 
in bombing Yugoslavia. Russia is acting within its own borders in Chechnya. 


The answer to this Caucasian conundrum lies not, in appeasing terrorism - as 
the west would usually agree when such matters are on its own doorstep. 


Paul Colston
RIA-Novosti 
*******


#11
Russian Grain Harvest Rises 11% This Year, Short of Demand

Moscow, Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) - Russia's grain harvest rose 11.4 this year,
and still falls far short of demand, the State Statistics Committee said. 


Russian farms harvested 57.8 million metric tons of grain this year, up
from 51.9 million tons a year ago, the agency said. Of this amount, small
private farms gathered 5 million tons. Earlier this month, the Agriculture
Ministry reported crops reaped by large farms only. 


While the harvest is bigger than the last year's, when drought reduced the
crop to the smallest since the 1950s, it's far behind Russia's annual
demand of 74 million tons of grain. Moreover, the country's outdated
technologies cause losses during sorting and drying of grain, so less grain
is being stockpiled than was gathered. Russia lost more than 3 million tons
of reaped crops last year. 


Russia harvested 14 million of sugar beet this year, up 30 percent from a
year earlier, the committee said. Its sunflower crops rose 26.5 percent to
3.5 million tons, while it gathered 10.6 million tons of vegetables, up 6
percent from last year. 


Analysts expect Russia to import 7 million metric tons of feed grains, of
which 3 million may come as part of food aid from the U.S., which is
currently under negotiation. Analysts and industry officials expect the
rest of the demand to be covered by grain which was hidden by farmers from
tax authorities and went unreported by the government statistics. 


*******


#12
Putin says no war in Chechnya, no attack on Grozny


BERLIN, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Russia was
waging not war but an anti-terrorist campai gn in Chechnya and Russian
forces, concerned to avoid civilian casualties, were not attacking the
regional capital Grozny. 


``We have no war aims. There is no war in Chechnya,'' said Putin, asked
what Moscow's war aims were in an interview with the German weekly Die
Zeit. ``There is an anti-terrorist operation going on. As you will not fail
to notice, we are in no way attacking cities,'' he said in the interview
released on Wednesday. 


Russian forces occupied the region's second biggest town, Gudermes, at the
weekend and have been tightening their control over areas around Grozny,
once home to some 300,000 people before the conflicts of recent years. 


``It will take time to achieve our goal. The goal is to pursue the military
undertaking to the end and to rid Chechen territory entirely of the
terrorists' bases,'' Putin added. ``We are not fighting the residents of
Chechnya. We did not go in as foreign invaders. The residents recognise
that.'' 


President Boris Yeltsin flew to Istanbul on Wednesday to try to dispel
opposition among other major powers to Moscow's latest Chechen campaign.
Western nations are expected to use the summit of the Organisation for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to voice concern at the effect of
the fighting on civilians, tens of thousands of whom have fled their homes. 


Putin said Westerners were mistaken in suggesting Russia was trying to
solve ethnic and religious disputes in the North Caucasus by force. But
defeating armed Islamist groups was a precondition for a political
solution, he said. 


He disputed a figure of 170,000 for the number of Chechens living as
refugees since the latest fighting, saying the real number was lower.
Russia would take care of those who fled, he said. 


``Everything necessary will be done for these people,'' Putin said. 


*******


#13
Clinton to urge political solution in Chechnya

EPHESUS, Turkey, Nov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. President Bill Clinton intends to
urge Russian President Boris Yeltsin to seek a political solution in
Chechnya when the two meet in Istanbul on Thursday, U.S. officials said on
Wednesday. 


Clinton will repeat comments he made to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin in Oslo earlier this month, warning that Russia's military offensive
threatens to cause mounting civilian casualties and to undermine world
opinion of Russia. 


``Undoubtedly we are going to be talking about Chechnya. He's going to be
making the same points as he made to Putin in Oslo,'' U.S. National
Security Council spokesman Mike Hammer told reporters. He was with the
Clinton family visiting the ancient site of Ephesus on Turkey's Aegean coast. 


Clinton and Yeltsin are to hold talks at a summit of the Organisation for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which is being held in Istanbul
on November 18-19. 


A U.S. official said the OSCE was not expected to make a formal statement
on Chechnya, but officials said earlier that Clinton would try to rally
international support for the U.S. position. 


The official said there were limits to the pressure Washington could put on
Moscow because punitive measures would be counter to U.S. aims of
encouraging democracy and bolstering Russia's economy. ``We don't have much
leverage,'' the official said. 


In Moscow on Tuesday, a Russian government spokesman told reporters that
the European security summit should focus on wider European and global
security issues and not on the crisis in Chechnya. 


Before leaving for the summit on Wednesday, Yeltsin said he would use his
political weight to try to change Western attitudes to Russia's military
offensive. 


``I hope common sense will prevail with those who have not been ready for
that so far,'' Interfax news agency reported Yeltsin as saying. 


******


#14
Chechnya standoff threatens European security summit


ISTANBUL, Nov 17 (AFP) - 
The standoff between the West and Russia over Chechnya could yet lead to a
"failure" of the OSCE summit in Istanbul, despite intensive last-minute
negotiations, a key official said Wednesday.


As Russian President Boris Yeltsin arrived for the two-day meeting starting
Thursday, OSCE chairman in office Knut Vollebaek said he hoped for the
signature of two landmark accords on arms reduction and security.


But he said it could not be guaranteed.


"If we do not reach agreement of course it's a failure .. for us as a
community," he told reporters ahead of the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) summit in Turkey's commercial capital.


"It is my strong hope that we will be able to sign these two documents
before we leave Istanbul," he added.


Yeltsin, who will hold face-to-face talks with US President Bill Clinton on
Thursday, appeared conciliatory before leaving Moscow for Istanbul, saying
he hoped "common sense" would prevail in his talks with Western leaders.


"I hope that will happen thanks to my intensive work" at the two-day summit
starting Thursday. However, Yeltsin, on his first foreign trip in several
weeks, conceded that his task would "not be easy."


Clinton, who has been in Istanbul since Tuesday, is expected to urge
Yeltsin to accept third-party mediation, possibly from the OSCE, to end the
Chechen conflict, according to his US national security advisor Samuel Berger.


But the US leader will also tell Yeltsin that his government's Chechen
strategy was at a "dead end," Berger told the Washington Post.


The Istanbul meeting aims to trumpet two key accords: a revised version of
the 1990 Convention Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty, and a new Security
Charter aimed at concretizing Europe's post-Cold War security structure.


The new CFE accord will cut by an average 10 percent ceilings established
by the 1990 accord for deployment of weapons such as tanks, aircraft and
artillery forces, notably on front lines between the former enemy blocs.


Vollebaek confirmed that the text of the amended CFE treaty itself had been
agreed, but said that an accompanying political declaration "is still under
discussion." He also confirmed that "intensive dicussions" were continuing
even as the summit officially opens. 


But asked if the CFE may yet not be signed, he told AFP: "As long as it's
not signed the risk is there."


Speaking at a pre-summit press conference, Vollebaek meanwhile reiterated
an appeal to Russia to seek a political dialogue to resolve the Chechen
conflict.


"On the eve of the summit I want to repeat my appeal to Russia to enter
into a dialogue aimed at a political solution," he said ahead of the start
Thursday of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe meeting.


"There is no doubt that the question of the situation in Chechnya will cast
a shadow over the summit," he said, while adding: "It is my strong hope
that it will not hinder us in signing the amended CFE treaty."


Meanwhile he said the European Security Charter was "about 80 percent
ready" as the summit prepares to open.


But crucial outstanding issues include "the conditions required to approve
use of force, including the role of the UN Security Council, and also the
role of the OSCE in internal conflicts," he said.


"The latter part must be seen against the conflict in Chechnya," he said.


The full agenda for the summit is enormous, ranging from assessing the
latest progress in Bosnia-Hercegovina and Kosovo to promoting democracy and
economic growth in central Asia.


Turkey will also revel in the spotlight of a meeting seen as supporting its
Westwards development -- backing all the more crucial since the devastating
earthquake in Istanbul in August which killed close to 20,000 people,
followed by the new quake last Friday which killed over 500 people.


*******


#15
Washington Times
17 November 1999
[for personal use only]
Chechnya talks seen as last chance to avert catastrophe
By David R. Sands and Andrew Cain
THE WASHINGTON TIMES


Tomorrow's private meeting between President Clinton and Russian
President Boris Yeltsin in Turkey marks the last chance to prevent a
military catastrophe in Chechnya, the Chechens' top diplomat in the United
States warned yesterday.
"Russia clearly has the capacity to destroy [the Chechen capital of]
Grozny," said Lyoma Usmanov, the authorized representative of the Chechen
Republic to the United States. "If nothing happens at the summit, my fear
is that things will become much more brutal."
Moscow has already warned against turning the two-day Istanbul summit
of the 54-nation Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which
gets under way tomorrow, into a forum for criticizing Russia's 10-week war
in the breakaway republic.
The West "has no right to blame Russia for destroying bandits and
terrorists in its territory," Mr. Yeltsin said earlier this week. "We will
not stop as long as there is even one terrorist there."
Samuel R. Berger, Mr. Clinton's national security adviser, said in
Istanbul yesterday that Moscow's campaign in Chechnya was "not a wise one"
and "likely to be counterproductive."
But he signaled the United States would not use the leverage of an
International Monetary Fund aid package to press Russia to curb the
violence -- something Mr. Usmanov said was crucial if Moscow was to be
persuaded to reverse its course.
"It would not make sense for us to affect the IMF money," Mr. Berger
told reporters traveling with Mr. Clinton in Turkey. He said the financial
rescue package now under way "goes to the very stability of Russia."
In Chechnya, Russian troops tightened their choke hold on two major
Chechen cities, Achkhoi-Martan and Argun, while advancing on Grozny. The
war has already produced heavy civilian casualties and an estimated 210,000
refugees, many poorly fed and poorly equipped for the coming winter.
Russia has already suffered one humiliating reverse in a two-year war
that gave Chechnya de facto independence. Moscow says it invaded to stop
Chechen terrorist attacks inside Russia and to turn back an incursion by
Islamic extremists into the neighboring Russian republic of Dagestan this
summer.
The war has boosted the poll numbers of new Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin, who plans to run for Mr. Yeltsin's job in June.
The United States, which does not recognize Chechnya's independence,
says it respects Russia's right to defend its territory and fight
terrorism, but has joined with nations around the world in condemning the
increasing brutality of the campaign.
Mr. Clinton, in muted remarks to the Turkish National Assembly in
Ankara on Monday, said: "We must be clear with Russia that its fight
against terrorism is right, but that the use of indiscriminate force
against civilians is wrong [and is] likely to exacerbate the very tensions
Russia wants to resolve."
Mr. Usmanov, in an interview after a talk yesterday at the Middle East
Institute here, said Russia's military is employing brutally effective new
tactics in its second attempt to reclaim the breakaway republic.
"They are avoiding hand-to-hand combat in the streets by heavily
shelling civilian areas of our towns before they move in," he said. "It is
a more effective policy, but it has nothing to do with humanitarian concerns."
Hardened Chechen guerrillas routed ill-trained and poorly motivated
Russian troops in urban fighting in the 1994-96 war. Russian military
officials confirmed yesterday they are taking a more measured approach this
time, relying on heavy artillery attacks before entering key Chechen
strongholds.
"We are in no hurry," Russian Maj. Gen. Vladimir Shamanov told the
Associated Press yesterday in Moscow. "There will be no stormings. The
troops will be using the tactics of wearing down the rebels' resistance
with artillery."
The Chechen representative insisted that his government had nothing to
do with a series of apartment building bombings that killed nearly 300 in
Moscow and Dagestan.
He said Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov had opposed the action by
Islamic extremists in Dagestan and that Chechnya was not aiding Saudi
international terrorist Osama bin Laden, as Moscow has charged.
"We have told Moscow and the U.S. State Department that, if bin Laden
comes into our territory, there is no doubt he will be arrested and handed
over," Mr. Usmanov said.
Designed to promote cooperation across the continent, the OSCE summit
now threatens to spotlight Russia's growing alienation with the West. Both
the European Union and the United States have stepped up their criticism of
the Chechnya war in recent days, producing an angry backlash in Russia.
"I do not know if there will be Bill and Boris this time," said Dmitry
Trenin, a defense analyst in Moscow, referring to Mr. Yeltsin and Mr.
Clinton's past public demonstrations of affection. "Now, in public there
may be more 'Mr. President.' "
Russia opposed NATO's war in Kosovo and its military has criticized
both NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe and U.S. plans to build a modest
missile defense system. Many in Moscow believe Washington is behind a delay
in the payment of a $640 million installment in the IMF lending program,
which was expected in September.
Russia's military buildup in Chechnya also clashes with one of the
primary diplomatic tasks of the Istanbul summit -- a planned modification
of the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty to set new post-Cold War force
levels across the continent.
The White House also announced yesterday that Mr. Clinton will meet
with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak in Istanbul today to discuss the
Middle East peace process. Israel is not a member of the OSCE, but Mr.
Barak planned to be in Istanbul to meet with other leaders attending the
summit.


******