May
14, 1999
This Date's Issues: 3286 •
3287
•
Johnson's Russia List
#3287
14 May 1999
davidjohnson@erols.com
[Note from David Johnson:
1. Fred Weir on latest developments.
2. Bloomberg: Yeltsin Has Legal Right to Dismiss Duma, Minister Says.
3. Reuters: Russian military won't stray into politics.
4. Izvestia: Government Members Wanted.
5. Moscow Times: Jonas Bernstein, PARTY LINES: Elite Breathes Easier With
Primakov Out.
6. The Nation editorial: Showdown in Moscow.
7. AFP: Influential Regional Chiefs Warn Against Yeltsin Impeachment.
8. Reuters: Duma speaker predicts narrow Yeltsin impeachment.
9. Sovetskaya Rossiya: The Primakov Government Was Honestly Trying
To Save the Country, But Yeltsin Needs Upheavals.
10. Itar-Tass: Primakov: Government Did 'Nothing To Make it Blush'
11. Los Angeles Times: Nina Khrushcheva, In Moscow, It's All Boris, All
the Time.
12. Reuters: Ghost Of 1993 Haunts Russian Politicians.
13. Reuters: Russia's Stepashin sees no major govt shakeup.
14. USA Today: Fred Coleman, Russia may get tough economic medicine.
15. New York Times editorial: Dangerous Sideshow in the Kremlin.]
********
#1
From: "Fred Weir" <fweir@glas.apc.org>
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999
For the Foreign Editor, Hindustan Times
From: Fred Weir in Moscow
MOSCOW (HT May 14) -- Whatever the outcome, Saturday's vote in the
State Duma on impeaching President Boris Yeltsin will highlight the
continuing deep and bitter divisions within Russian society after a decade
of failed economic reforms, civil conflict and political drift.
"The effort to impeach Yeltsin is fraught with new dangers, but it is
in many ways just the latest chapter in a struggle that's been going on for
almost 10 years," says Viktor Levashov, a sociologist with the Institute of
Social and Political Studies in Moscow.
"The failure of Russia's transition from communism, and Yeltsin's
responsibility for that, is at the root of all our political turmoil. Today
we live in a society of total discontent".
The Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, is debating five charges
of treason against Mr. Yeltsin and will put each of them to a separate vote
on Saturday.
Although the Kremlin has accused parliamentarians of hysteria and
demogoguery, recent opinion surveys suggest the vast majority of Russians
are even more fed up with the direction of post-Soviet Russia than their
cautious parliamentarians and more than two-thirds of them blame Mr. Yeltsin
personally.
A poll carried out last week among Moscow residents by the Research
Centre of the Youth Institute found that just 1 per cent of respondents
thought Mr. Yeltsin not guilty of all five charges being considered by the
Duma.
Those charges are:
* That Mr. Yeltsin conspired in secret with the leaders of Ukraine
and Belarus to illegally and undemocratically disband the Soviet Union in
1991.
* Mr. Yeltsin violated his oath of office, trampled the legitimate
Constitution of Russia and illegally dissolved the elected parliament in
September 1993. When the parliament resisted, the Kremlin brought troops and
tanks into Moscow and bombarded it out of existence on October 4, 1993, with
the loss of at least 200 lives.
* Without consulting any other institution of Russian state power,
Mr. Yeltsin launched a military invasion of the secessionist Russian
Republic of Chechnya in December 1994. In almost two years of bloody
warfare, never approved by parliament, nearly 80,000 Russian citizens lost
their lives.
* Russia's national defences have been undermined by years of
underfunding, neglect and denigration of the armed forces.
* Bungled market reforms have led to mass poverty, plunging
birthrates and dramatically lower life expectancies. In consequence
Russia's population has been shrinking by almost half a million people
annually, which the article of impeachment describes as "genocide".
If even one of the articles is approved by a two-thirds vote in the
Duma Saturday, the process of impeachment will be launched. The charge must
then be examined by the Supreme and Constitutional courts for its technical
correctness and constitutionality, and finally must win two-thirds support
in the Federation Council, Russia's upper house of parliament.
Most analysts consider the chances of impeachment clearing all these
hurdles to be extremely remote. But that may be missing the central point,
which is that Russians are profoundly disaffected with the Kremlin and are
only likely to become more so if Mr. Yeltsin demonstrates that he is beyond
accountability.
"These charges are very politicized, but each in some way expresses
the pain of some part of the population," says Mr. Levashov. "The Duma, as
the branch of government closest to the people, feels it must react in some
way -- especially in an election year".
The Youth Institute survey illustrates how deep and angry are the
feelings of most Russians on these points. Only about 40 per cent of
respondents felt Mr. Yeltsin is guilty on the first two articles -- both
issues of direct emotional interest mainly to elderly and pro-Communist
Russians. But 82 per cent blamed him for the Chechnya war, 68 per cent said
Mr. Yeltsin was guilty for destroying the armed forces and 73 per cent said
he had to bear responsibility for impoverishing the country.
"The only one of the five articles that stands a good chance of
passing is Yeltsin's guilt for the war in Chechnya, which almost all
political factions in parliament agree on," says Andrei Piontkovsky,
director of the Centre for Strategic Studies in Moscow.
Mr. Yeltsin reacted to the threat of impeachment proceedings in the
Duma by firing left-leaning Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, whom he blamed
for not preventing it.
Leaving the country without a government in the midst of an
impeachment proceding threatens a full-blown Constitutional crisis,
analysts say.
"Impeachment itself may not turn out to be a catastrophe, the country
will probably survive whatever happens," says Mr. Levashov. "But Yeltsin
will go down in history as the first Russian President who made his country
try to impeach him. That's his personal catastrophe".
********
#2
Yeltsin Has Legal Right to Dismiss Duma, Minister Says
Moscow, May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's acting Justice Minister Pavel
Krasheninnikov said President Boris Yeltsin has the constitutional right to
dissolve the lower house of parliament even if it votes to impeach him
tomorrow, Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported. A clause in the
constitution prohibiting the dissolution of the parliament if the impeachment
process begins does not override two other clauses requiring the president to
dissolve the lower house if it fails to approve his choice of prime minister
in three separate votes, Krasheninnikov claimed. Commenting on the
impeachment charge most likely to win parliamentary backing -- illegally
starting a war in Chechnya -- Krasheninnikov said ``everyone forgot that the
Chechnya issue has already been considered by the constitutional court and it
didn't find any violations of law in Yeltsin's actions,`` the paper reported.
*******
#3
Russian military won't stray into politics
By Martin Nesirky
MOSCOW, May 14 (Reuters) - Russia's defence minister said on Friday his
forces would not be dragged into the country's political crisis because
President Boris Yeltsin's own rules prevented it.
Marshal Igor Sergeyev said the Kremlin chief determined the role of the armed
forces and there had been no changes. Yeltsin, ailing and unpredictable,
plunged nuclear power Russia into renewed uncertainty when he sacked the
cabinet on Wednesday.
Some Russian media have suggested Yeltsin could use force against opponents
if the State Duma lower house of parliament votes to launch impeachment
proceedings against him and rejects his replacement prime minister, Sergei
Stepashin.
Communist parliamentary speaker Gennady Seleznyov suggested even if Yeltsin
bent the rules, the disillusioned armed forces would either stay in their
barracks or take aim at the Kremlin, rather than at the opposition.
Defence chief Sergeyev, speaking during a visit to an elite army base in
Moscow, said: ``The armed forces of Russia cannot be drawn into the country's
domestic political processes.''
Russian television said it was his first public appearance since Yeltsin, 68,
ditched Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov and asked the cabinet to stay on
until a new government was formed.
``The areas of the armed forces' activity have been defined by the president
and have so far remained unchanged,'' Sergeyev said in comments reported by
Russian news agencies and confirmed by the Defence Ministry.
During a hardline revolt in Moscow in 1993, reluctant armed forces commanders
moved troops into the capital on Yeltsin's orders and used tanks to force
rebel deputies to leave the besieged parliament building. One of the five
impeachment charges against Yeltsin covers precisely this point.
But diplomats and defence experts have played down the chance of a repeat of
1993, pointing to poor army morale and skills.
Seleznyov, taking a break from the impeachment debate in the State Duma lower
house, also rejected such talk.
``I rule out any military coup,'' he told reporters. ``Everything is
proceeding in a constitutional way now, and I think the president understands
this perfectly well.'' But he said the military would not follow Yeltsin's
orders.
``If there is an order to shame the army again and seize or disband
parliament by military might, I know many leaders and officers and division
commanders who say, perhaps with extraneous emotion, that then 'we would turn
our tanks and bayonets against the Kremlin','' he said.
Sergeyev said his visit to the 27th Special Motorised Rifle Brigade, which
Russian television said was one of the army's most battle-ready units, was
entirely unconnected with Russia's political crisis. He was attending a
military meeting.
Under military reforms, Russia's forces have been cut to 1.2 million men and
women, partly because the country cannot afford more and partly to reflect
post-Cold War realities.
Sergeyev's remarks did not cover Interior Ministry troops, which do have a
remit to guarantee internal security. Their role in the 1994-96 war against
separatist Chechnya was widely criticised. Defence experts estimate the
forces at some 300,000.
Those forces would have reason to be loyal to Stepashin. He was hitherto
interior minister and is a colonel-general.
Sergeyev said NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia and U.S.-led air strikes on Iraq
had prompted Russia to review its security strategy and military doctrine.
The defence weekly Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye said many in the
military had high hopes a Stepashin government would pay more attention to
them.
*******
#4
Izvestia
May 14, 1999
Government Members Wanted
By Svatlana Babayeva, Gennady Charodeyev, Vladimir Yermolin
Acting Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin has started consultations on the
makeup of a new Russian Government, writes IZVESTIA. One of the first
politicians he met with was Yabloko leader Grigory Yavlinsky [it is rumored
that he was offered the post of Deputy Prime Minister in charge of
macroeconomics, though Yavlinsky denies this]. There are also other potential
candidates for this job, such as former chief of the Federal Tax Service (and
earlier Finance Minister) Boris Fyodorov and former Prime Minister Sergei
Kiriyenko. Observers also saw Anatoly Chubais and Viktor Chernomyrdin in the
Kremlin.
Government officials fear that some figures might be imposed on Stepashin,
in which case there will be no team. They say that if Railways Minister
Nikolai Aksenenko, recently promoted to the First Deputy Prime Minister's
post, is given the entire economic block, this will not be good either for
the economy or for the government. Aksenenko is known as a good manager, so
it will be better if he is given the real sector of economy to command. If
there is no well-knit team, Russia will have to forget about "dynamic
economic reforms," the paper warns.
Observers also lively discuss whether the current Foreign Minister, Igor
Ivanov, will preserve his post. Some diplomats say he should stay, whereas
others believe that he will be replaced. Among the candidates, they name
Chairman of the Duma Foreign Relations Committee Vladimir Lukin, former
presidential press secretary Sergei Yastrzhembsky, current Deputy Foreign
Minister Grigory Krasin and former Foreign Minister Alexander Bessmertnykh.
But the most striking rumor is that the President may propose Viktor
Chernomyrdin for the Foreign Minister's post, because he has shown himself as
a "skillful diplomat in settling the Balkan crisis."
Because of his new appointment, Stepashin will have to vacate the post of
Interior Minister. Among the most likely candidates for that job observers
name one of two of his current deputies, Vladimir Vasilyev and Vladimir
Rushailo [the latter was promoted to Colonel- General just a few days ago].
********
#5
Moscow Times
May 14, 1999
PARTY LINES: Elite Breathes Easier With Primakov Out
By Jonas Bernstein
Staff Writer
President Boris Yeltsin's decree firing Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov
essentially marked a return to the pre-August 1998 status quo.
Indeed, it must have seemed like an all-clear to the leaders of the New Class
- a signal that their dark months of tribulation at the hands of
Gorbachev-era interlopers were finally over. One could almost hear the sighs
of relief and the popping of champagne bottles emanating from villas on the
French Riviera and in Monaco, the private jets fueling up for the
Moscow-bound journey.
It has not, of course, been an entirely smooth ride in the wake of Primakov's
sacking, with the Russian market taking a steep tumble (a strange reaction to
the ouster of an anti-market Cabinet) and dollar sales increasing 10-fold on
Thursday (hardly a ringing endorsement of the proposition that Yeltsin's move
signaled a "strengthening of reforms"). And then there's the problem with the
International Monetary Fund, whose next multi-billion-dollar credit is
contingent upon getting revenue-enhancing laws through the Duma. Deputies
there probably won't want to make things difficult for average Russians just
to make things easy for the Fund and the Kremlin.
Yet this, too, shall pass. Once the uproar surrounding the firing, Sergei
Stepashin's confirmation as Primakov's replacement and impeachment has
subsided, Yeltsin will have to finish staffing the new Cabinet. If he
decorates it with a few energetic young reformers (EYRs) - Sergei Kiriyenko
and Boris Fyodorov are already being talked up on the rumor mill - and,
perhaps, throws in Old Reliable (Viktor Chernomyrdin), the Western moneybags
are likely to become more generous. And, with luck, there won't even be a
Duma to worry about.
What is more, Fortune dealt Russia a high card this week when Lawrence
Summers replaced Robert Rubin as U.S. Secretary of Treasury. In 1996, just
two years before Russia's financial collapse, Summers hailed Yeltsin's
appointment of Anatoly Chubais and other EYRs as the arrival of an "economic
dream team." (Summers did not, to the best of my knowledge, bring up the
dream team again when Russia's economy collapsed.) Chubais was back
Wednesday, hinting that he played a role in Primakov's ouster. His return to
the political arena increases the likelihood that if the IMF gets cold feet
about Russia's dough, Summers will prod the Fund in the "right" direction,
just as he did right before last August's default.
But the most entertaining phase in Russia's political tragicomedy, I suspect,
lies ahead. In an interview published Thursday in Obshchaya Gazeta, Grigory
Yavlinksy gave us a preview. Asked about the plans of Yeltsin and Belarus
President Alexander Lukashenko to move toward a unified state, the Yabloko
leader answered: "It is entirely possible that Yeltsin needs it to maintain
his presidential status after the year 2000. If such a union is established,
it is possible that the president of the union state will be appointed, not
elected. This also suits Lukashenko. He believes that he will be able to
outplay Yeltsin and enter the Russian political arena."
Whether or not Yeltsin engineers an extra term, it is probable, as Obshchaya
Gazeta's Dmitry Furman noted this week, that the regime he has created will
outlive him.
Russia's "transition," it seems, is complete.
*******
#6
The Nation
May 31, 1999
Editorial
Showdown in Moscow
By dismissing Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov and warning that Russia may
pull out of the Yugoslav peace talks, Boris Yeltsin has shown again that he
will do almost anything to save his skin, even jeopardize his country's
domestic stability and role on the international stage. For years the
darling of the Western establishment, Yeltsin is in real danger. As
investigations of financial scandals close in on the Kremlin, his family
and his entourage, Yeltsin feels gravely threatened.
Yeltsin no longer (if he ever did) trusts the popular Primakov to protect
him from the possibility of impeachment or from prosecution upon leaving
office next year. And once Parliament starts impeachment proceedings,
scheduled to begin on May 13, he can no longer legally dismiss it (although
Russia's constitutional court is capable of authorizing anything).
Moreover, in the parliamentary elections scheduled for December the
Communists and other opponents of the regime are almost certain to increase
their numbers in the Duma. Still worse, in the presidential election next
June, no pro-Yeltsin candidate stands a reasonable chance.
Recklessly, and dangerously, Yeltsin is trying to replace Primakov with
people he can trust. By naming Interior Minister Sergei Stepashin-the
country's top policeman, who controls Russia's best-maintained military
units and was an architect of the bloody and disastrous war in Chechnya-as
acting prime minister, Yeltsin is signaling that he has in mind a less
constitutional solution to his problems. Indeed, he is telling Parliament
that he is prepared to disband it by force, as he did its predecessor in
1993. The domestic consequences of such a step are unpredictable. It is not
clear that Stepashin can control his own police forces or what the regular
army's reaction to a showdown with the President might be. Thus has Yeltsin
risked the stability achieved by the Primakov team at a time when a stable
government is badly needed to proceed with economic recovery and play a
crucial role on the international stage.
Those who hope that, weakened by self-inflicted wounds, Russia will be more
amenable to Western pressure are making a mistake. The mood in Russia is
probably more anti-American today than at any stage in Russian, or even
Soviet, history. Indeed, it's widely believed by political observers in
Russia that anti-Primakov forces in the Clinton Administration (and the
IMF) were involved in his ouster. As a result, Primakov's expulsion will
make it more difficult to find support in Russia for the peace process or
any deal made in the coming weeks.
*******
#7
Influential Regional Chiefs Warn Against Yeltsin Impeachment
MOSCOW, May. 14, 1999 -- (Agence France Presse) Influential regional leaders
have appealed to Russian deputies to drop moves to impeach President Boris
Yeltsin, saying he should stay because of his role in founding a democratic
post-Soviet Russia.
Presidential hopeful Alexander Lebed was among the 17 governors and republic
leaders to sign the letter, which was being distributed to deputies who
Thursday began debating the process of impeaching Yeltsin.
The letter was addressed to Boris Kuznetzov, a deputy speaker of the Duma,
the lower house of parliament, who is from the pro-Yeltsin Our Home is Russia
party.
"We firmly ... call on your colleagues in the Duma to stop the procedure of
impeachment against the president of the Russian Federation," the letter
said.
Among the signatories were Mintimer Shaimiyev, the president of Tatarstan
which is one of the republics with the loosest links to Moscow, North
Ossetia's President Alexander Dzasokhov, his Ingushetia counterpart Ruslan
Aushev, and the former general Lebed, now governor of Siberia's mineral-rich
Krasnoyarsk region.
"We think that it is right and historically proven that President Boris
Yeltsin has built the basis for a democracy in Russia," said the letter, a
copy of which was seen by AFP.
They added that "today, as never before, it is important to keep a
constitutional balance among the branches of power."
The regional leaders said they supported Yeltsin's tough line against NATO on
the Yugoslav crisis and approved of his moves to grant the regions broader
powers to run their own affairs.
"We give special importance, together with the president, for clean
parliamentary elections and we will do everything to ensure that happens,"
they said.
Russian voters are due to elect a new parliament in December.
The sacking by Yeltsin of premier Yevgeny Primakov on Wednesday, on the eve
of the impeachment debate, has plunged Russia into its sharpest political
crisis since Yeltsin used tanks to quell a parliamentary revolt in October
1993.
If deputies reject premier-designate Sergei Stepashin three times, parliament
in theory is dissolved, although the Duma insists that cannot happen once the
impeachment process has begun. The Constitutional Court could be asked to
rule on this point.
*******
#8
Duma speaker predicts narrow Yeltsin impeachment
By Adam Tanner
MOSCOW, May 14 (Reuters) - Gennady Seleznyov, the speaker of Russia's State
Duma lower house of parliament, predicted on Friday that deputies would
narrowly vote to impeach President Boris Yeltsin on at least one of five
counts on Saturday.
The Duma continued a second day of impeachment debates on Friday, with the
opposition hoping to gather more than 300 votes in the 450-member body to
vote to impeach on Saturday.
The third of five charges, on starting the 1994-96 war in the separatist
Russian region of Chechnya, appears to have the best chance of being
approved.
``My prediction is that on the third item we'll get not less than 312
votes,'' the moderate Communist Seleznyov told a news conference. ``There
will be fewer votes on the other ones, but enough to send the matter to the
Supreme Court and Constitutional Court.'' If the Duma approves at least one
impeachment charge, the case goes before the country's top two courts before
the upper house of parliament takes a final vote on the matter.
A Duma vote in favour of impeachment would bar the president from disbanding
the legislature for three months.
But the chamber would trigger a constitutional deadlock if it voted down
Yeltsin's new candidate for prime minister, Sergei Stepashin, three times,
because the constitution says in that case the Duma must be disbanded
immediately.
In 1993 Yeltsin turned tanks on the Soviet-era elected Duma after they
started a mutinous uprising following a long period of political tensions.
Seleznyov said he did not expect any bloody resolution to the latest standoff
between the Kremlin and parliament.
``I rule out any military coup. Everything is proceeding in a constitutional
way now, and I think the president understands this perfectly well,'' he
said.
The speaker also said Yeltsin would no longer enjoy the loyalty of the armed
forces in an internal struggle.
``If there is an order to shame the army again and seize or disband the
parliament by military might, I know many leaders and officers and division
commanders who say, perhaps with excessive emotion, that then 'we will turn
our tanks and bayonets against the Kremlin','' Seleznyov said.
Seleznyov, whose Communists are the largest party in the Duma, said that if
the chamber voted for impeachment and against Yeltsin's candidate for prime
minister three times, they and the president would likely seek a compromise
candidate for premier.
The Duma's first vote on Stepashin's nomination is expected next Wednesday.
Seleznyov declined to predict chances for the former interior minister,
saying party leaders would hold consultations on the nomination on Monday and
Tuesday.
``There are many doubts about Stepashin,'' he said. ``He has always been a
security official. He led security structures and the government mechanism is
much more complex.''
But he also added that Stepashin was in favour of continuing the line of
sacked Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, who was popular with the
opposition-dominated Duma.
*******
#9
Yeltsin's Dismissal of Primakov Said To 'Suit Washington'
Sovetskaya Rossiya
13 May 1999
[translation for personal use only]
Unattributed article: "The Primakov Government Was Honestly Trying
To Save the Country, But Yeltsin Needs Upheavals"
So after all, contrary to logic and common sense,
what has happened is precisely what the magpies that hang around the
Kremlin had been chattering about so loudly on all the TV channels:
Yeltsin has dismissed Yevgeniy Maksimovich Primakov's government and
appointed as acting premier S.V. Stepashin, a man who is personally
devoted to Yeltsin, a specialist in party work in the firefighting units
and minister of internal affairs, who was elevated to the rank of first
vice premier at the end of April in return for who knows what services.
Commenting immediately after that rather bizarre appointment, Sovetskaya
Rossiya, in its article "Trouble-Shooting Appointment..." (in the 29
April issue), predicted that "a new 'trouble-shooting appointment' is
very possible." And now it has happened...
Contrary to some reports in the media, Ye.M. Primakov did not submit a
resignation request to the president, and everything is fine as regards
his health (at any rate, his health is much better than Boris
Nikolayevich's own). As for the results of the last government's work
over a short period -- eight months -- they speak for themselves: The
country has managed to avoid hyperinflation. The ruble rate against the
dollar has started to rise and a slow growth in industrial production has
begun. As Yeltsin himself admitted, "the government has completely fulfilled
the tactical task that it was set." Evidently the president was afraid
that it would also fulfill economic tasks of a strategic nature, and
therefore he adopted this "difficult decision," to use his own words.
As the hero of A.S. Griboyedov's comedy "Woe From Wit" ironically
observed, "rank is conferred by people, and people can be deceived." B.N.
Yeltsin is admittedly entirely worthy of an entry in the Guinness Book of
Records for the record number of totally irresponsible personnel
decisions he has made during the years of his presidency, but the case of
Ye.M. Primakov was almost the only time he did not blunder.
It is curious that even the pro-presidential NDR [Russia Is Our Home]
Duma faction, through the lips of its leader Vladimir Ryzhkov, has on
this occasion dissociated itself from Yeltsin's decision, believing that
Ye.M. Primakov's dismissal "can only complicate mutual relations between
the executive and legislative branches of power." And even Yu. Luzhkov,
who usually follows in the wake of Yeltsin's policy, "very much regrets
the decision" and "sees no serious reasons to explain Yevgeniy Primakov's
dismissal." As for the president's attempts to replace Ye. Primakov with S.
Stepashin, Duma Speaker G. Seleznev rightly called this "the president's
biggest mistake in recent times." However, the reaction to this mistake
on the London currency and financial markets is noteworthy. The currency
exchange and share rates recorded that the Kremlin has made personnel
decisions that suit Washington. According to ITAR-TASS's correspondent,
the news of Ye. Primakov's dismissal from the post of head of the Russian
Government boosted the dollar rate against the euro, while the prices of
Russian eurobonds immediately fell five points.
On the eve of the State Duma hearings on impeachment, Yeltsin is
deliberately disrupting the fragile political balance that had existed in
the country. What will he gain as a result? Duma experts believe that the
chances of Yeltsin's removal from the post of president have
substantially increased after his latest personnel reshuffle.
********
#10
Primakov: Government Did 'Nothing To Make it Blush'
MOSCOW, May 12 (Itar-Tass) - "I think our
government has done nothing to make it blush, said Yevgeny Primakov at a
session of the Cabinet on Wednesday. He thanked members of the Cabinet
for "well-coordinated, and very fruitful and efficient work carried out
in a friendly spirit."
"We have done our job as we could, professionally, and I believe it has
been good," Primakov said.
He underlined that the government under his leadership managed "to
avoid hyperinflation which had been predicted."
"To the present day, the rouble exchange rate has never reached the
level of fifty roubles against the dollar as was predicted," Primakov
stressed.
"At the macroeconomics level, we have managed to improve the situation
which developed after August 17, 1998, stabilize the situation in society
both in a political and a social aspect. The number of strikes has
sharply declined, which is the evidence that the social situation in the
country has been controllable," Primakov said.
The government has developed a programme of the economic development for
the year 2000, he said. The programme has been passed by all the
departments, has been examined by international financial organizations
and has been acknowledged as optimal under the present conditions."
Primakov said.
"I am turning over this programme to Stepashin and hope that he will
probably find it useful," Primakov said.
"I feel much better now and can walk better now," Primakov noted.
*******
#11
Los Angeles Times
May 13, 1999
[for personal use only]
PERSPECTIVE ON RUSSIA
In Moscow, It's All Boris, All the Time
It's Yeltsin's pattern to lash out when he's threatened; a prime minister
was again the victim.
By NINA KHRUSHCHEVA
Nina Khrushcheva Is Director of Communications and Special Projects at the
East-west Institute in New York
On the one hand, Russia is not the most predictable country in the world. On
the other, what can be more predictable than Russia, whose leader for a
number of years has being doing things that seem impossible, irrational and
illogical? And he does them in very consistent fashion.
It has been Boris N. Yeltsin's habit that when there is a situation in which
his authority or power is threatened, he does everything to solidify his own
power, often at the expense of common sense.
Just-fired Prime Minister Yevgeny M. Primakov enjoyed popularity among the
population. He has been able to stabilize the political situation and
encourage the International Monetary Fund to give another round of support to
Russia. But Yeltsin's own political pride is surely of most importance. It
was not the good of Russia but Yeltsin's imminent impeachment process that
decided Primakov's future.
In the present case, Yeltsin is charged with five impeachment counts, the
most serious of which is his responsibility for the war in Chechnya. Even
lesser threats to Yeltsin's power have, in the past, invoked political
retribution.
Mere rumors that Viktor S. Chernomyrdin was considering running for president
resulted in his dismissal in spring 1998. Summer 1998 brought the sacking of
another government, now a reformist one, with 35-year-old Sergei Kiriyenko as
the prime minister. Boris Berezovsky, one of the major Russian oligarchs,
lost his position as an executive secretary of the Commonwealth of
Independent States in March due to his increased influence in Russian
politics in general and Yeltsin's private family matters in particular.
What recent history teaches us is that Yeltsin's response to humiliation--and
he regards all threats to his power as humiliating--is to attack with only
his own survival in mind.
Impeachment hearings in Russia are, in fact, very much a symbolic act. There
are no constitutional facilities to remove a living president. It is also a
long process, one that will surely take longer than the remaining year
Yeltsin has left in the Kremlin.
The Duma must approve the motion by a two-thirds vote, which it is unlikely
to do for psychological reasons. The constitutional court, the next step in
the impeachment process, is very pro-Yeltsin, and despite its democratic
appearance, willn't interfere with the country's laws and tradition. Finally,
the parliament's upper house, the Federation Council, must pass the motion by
a two-thirds majority.
But as impractical as these impeachment threats are, they put the country in
real danger. Yeltsin has another quality which defines him as a Russian
leader: He doesn't forgive those who have betrayed him even if these
betrayals exist only in his own head. All those who appear to be more
independent than his unlimited authority allows he considers to be traitors.
If Primakov thinks he can rule the country by himself, Yeltsin wants to show
who's in charge here.
Primakov's acceptance and respect by both aisles of the Duma, the left and
the right, made him a prime minister last September. This very acceptance and
respect, especially by the Communists--the Duma's majority--brought him down
Wednesday. It doesn't take Sigmund Freud to guess what Yeltsin was thinking.
"If Communists support Primakov and are against me, let's see what they're
going to do when there is only me and no Primakov.' "
And this is a good question. What are they going to do? Constitutionally,
Yeltsin cannot dissolve the rebellious parliament while the impeachment
process is in motion. However, if the Duma, by the third vote, doesn't
approve of his choice of replacement for Primakov--Sergei V. Stepashin, a
recently appointed first deputy prime minister who was a minister of internal
affairs and Yeltsin's protege--the president might still dissolve the Duma.
And even if dissolution proves to be impossible, obviously this latest move
shows that in Russia there is always a way for the man in power to assert his
will.
The impulsive Russian president didn't hesitate to send troops against the
parliament headquarters--the Russian White House--in 1993. The excuse was
obvious. Democratic Yeltsin was fighting for democracy even if it had to be
with the help of guns. If this time the simple dissolution of the Duma is not
possible, we can only wonder what Yeltsin might do next.
Besides, if Stepashin's his familiarity with the power structure, his
campaign against corruption in the capital and the region and his general
responsibility for firm order in the country make him a perfect executor for
a potential assault on parliament. As grim as it sounds, unfortunately, it's
only in the tradition of Yeltsin's predictable unpredictability.
*******
#12
Ghost Of 1993 Haunts Russian Politicians
MOSCOW, May. 14, 1999 -- (Reuters) When Russian President Boris Yeltsin
disbanded the Soviet-era parliament in 1993, he offered top members jobs in
the government as an incentive to comply with his order.
Many Supreme Soviet deputies rejected Yeltsin's mix of incentives and
threats, and two days of bitter fighting broke out soon afterwards. More than
140 people were killed in clashes that followed and Yeltsin sent tanks to end
the rebellion.
One of the top parliamentarians co-opted by Yeltsin's offer was the then
chairman of the parliamentary defense and security committee, Sergei
Stepashin, who immediately become deputy security minister.
Stepashin has remained loyal to Yeltsin ever since. After spells as justice
minister, interior minister and first deputy prime minister, he was nominated
by the president on Wednesday to replace Yevgeny Primakov as prime minister.
That appointment, and the start of debates in the lower house of the new
parliament on whether to impeach Yeltsin, sets the stage for the most direct
confrontation between the president and parliament since 1993.
Yeltsin needs parliamentary backing for Stepashin but has alienated deputies
by ousting a premier most of them backed.
Despite the political turmoil, Russian security analysts and Moscow-based
diplomats say a bloody ending looks unlikely this time.
"This situation is different from the one in 1993," said one military
attache. "I don't think anything will happen. This is only the worst-case
scenario."
Another diplomat said: "I don't think it's a big danger, not for the time
being."
A Kremlin official also dismissed the possibility of any repeat of the events
of 1993.
"No one on the president's side will ever do anything outside the
constitution," he said. "Everything that happened (in 1993) is now in the
past."
Other analysts say Yeltsin would be less likely to risk such a confrontation
now because he was much more popular in 1993 and now has little public
backing.
Support in the military for any use of force is also questionable although
interior forces would have reason to be loyal to Stepashin, their former
chief.
Legal experts say the impeachment debates that started on Thursday in the
Duma, the lower house of parliament, could however lead to a constitutional
impasse.
If deputies vote to impeach the president, the constitution says he cannot
dissolve the Duma. Yet if the Duma votes down Stepashin as prime minister
three times, the constitution says the chamber must be disbanded.
"There would be a constitutional case that would be decided in a
constitutional way," the Kremlin official said.
But Kommersant business newspaper quoted other officials as acknowledging the
possibility of a direct confrontation.
"Most of Kommersant's Kremlin sources recognize the possibility of the
situation developing into a violent scenario and confirmed that 'the
president will react adequately to any anti-constitutional actions,'" it
wrote.
The memory of 1993 lingers not as a bloody ghost of the past but also as one
of five charges on which the Duma is now considering impeaching Yeltsin.
Another Supreme Soviet deputy who accepted Yeltsin's bid to join the
government in 1993, Yevgeny Kozhokin, said 1999 is very different -- and less
explosive -- because the confrontation is not over the constitution itself.
"Then there was the situation where the parliament was constitutionally
entitled to change the constitution and take powers away from the president,"
said Kozhokin, director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies.
"Now the whole conflict between two different branches of the constitutional
order is taking place within the bounds of the constitution."
******
#13
Russia's Stepashin sees no major govt shakeup
By Brian Killen
MOSCOW, May 14 (Reuters) - Russia's Acting Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin
said on Friday he would keep the backbone of his predecessor's government --
accused by President Boris Yeltsin of being spineless on reform.
``The backbone will certainly be maintained and there will be no reshuffle,''
Interfax news agency quoted Stepashin as saying.
Stepashin, a former interior minister and staunch Yeltsin ally, was named
acting premier by Yeltsin on Wednesday when Yevgeny Primakov was sacked for
failing to implement reforms more decisively.
But Stepashin, 47, appeared to call for a new economic philosophy by saying
on Friday that the crisis required ``a technocratic government'' and it was
not clear who would now assume overall responsibility for the economy.
Primakov's economic supremo, moderate Communist Yuri Maslyukov, has said he
does not plan to serve under Stepashin, who ruled out forming a coalition
government.
Primakov also liked to refer to his government as a team of professionals,
but he formed it with the aim of restoring political and economic stability
in the wake of the August financial crisis rather than pushing ahead with
reforms.
The composition of Primakov's government, which included leftist opposition
members, reflected his desire to cooperate with the Communist-led State Duma
lower house of parliament.
Stepashin's remarks, while ruling out wholesale changes, suggested a return
to the vigorous reformist approach of Sergei Kiriyenko's pre-crisis
government, which ran into a wall of resistance from the Duma.
The new acting premier also stressed the need for cooperation with the
International Monetary Fund and World Bank, but he could face the same
problems as Kiriyenko when it comes to seeking legislative backing for
IMF-sponsored reforms.
The IMF and World Bank have promised to lend Russia billions of dollars
provided reforms are implemented, including new tax measures that require
Duma support.
Prime-Tass news agency quoted Stepashin as saying failure to adopt this
package of laws, which would unlock $4.5 billion in IMF loans over 18 months,
would throw in doubt agreements reached with international financial
organisations.
He also said the main parameters of the 2000 draft budget would be considered
by the government in two weeks so that the document could be debated by the
Duma before its summer recess.
Interfax quoted Stepashin as saying Yeltsin's economic reform course would
continue, but he repeated some of the mantras of the Primakov-Maslyukov team
-- support for domestic industry, measures to stimulate investment, tax and
social sector reforms, fight against crime and corruption.
Stepashin, described as a Russian Pinochet in some local newspapers, also
showed the law enforcer in his character by warning that unjustified rises in
petrol prices would draw a swift government response, RIA news agency
reported.
Petrol prices in St Petersburg rose sharply after a mysterious disruption to
supplies in the city. Moscow prices have also risen, but Stepashin said there
were no shortages.
*******
#14
USA Today
May 14, 1999
[for personal use only]
Russia may get tough economic medicine
By Fred Coleman, USA TODAY
MOSCOW - The conventional wisdom here is that Boris Yeltsin fired Prime
Minister Yevgeny Primakov this week to get rid of a political rival.
But Russian analysts think the real reason was to clear the way for a sea
change in government policy.
The second group says the shift makes sense if Yeltsin intends to move to the
"Pinochet model" of development.
The daily Moscow Times agreed, saying in an editorial that the high-level
shuffle sounds "like the prelude to a Pinochet-style defense of authoritarian
capitalism."
The reference is to Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet who ruled with a heavy
hand to force painful but necessary economic change in Chile in the 1970s.
It is an idea that appeals to a post-Soviet Russia that has failed to create
a stable democracy and a successful market economy at the same time.
The Pinochet model puts the economy first, even at the expense of draconian
measures, so that a healthy democracy can develop later.
Some Russian analysts say Yeltsin hinted at that strategy by firing Primakov
for failing to improve the economy, and then putting in his place Sergei
Stepashin, with a mandate to use "harsh measures" as the way toward economic
progress.
Stepashin is a symbol of law and order, having run both the uniformed police
as interior minister and the secret police or former KGB, but he has no
economic experience.
Still, his appointment makes sense, analysts say, if Yeltsin names a proven
economic reformer as Stepashin's first deputy to prescribe the medicine that
the tough new premier will then make the country swallow. Some think this
could occur within days.
"That way the new government can be authoritarian politically and liberal
economically," says Andrei Kortunov, president of the Russian Science
Foundation, a leading think tank.
Anatoly Chubais, a leading reformer and former first deputy premier, added
further weight to speculation that a policy change is afoot. Chubais, who
discussed the shake-up with Yeltsin, called it "a well thought-out process."
"The whole success of the Yeltsin changes depends on who will be appointed
first deputy prime minister in charge of the economy," says analyst Andrei
Piontkowski of the Center for Strategic Studies.
If a Soviet era apparatchik gets the post, however, it indicates that Yeltsin
sacked Primakov only for political reasons, using the economy as a lame
excuse.
Even if a reformer is chosen, the policy shift is far from a sure thing in
Russia. The fight over impeachment could tie up the country for weeks, while
the Duma, or lower house of parliament, may never confirm Stepashin as
premier.
On the economic front, the key is a $4.5 billion loan from the international
monetary fund over the next 18 months to keep Russia from defaulting on its
foreign debt this year.
Longer term, the Pinochet model would require the muscle to put in an
effective tax collection system, curbs on capital flight and a crackdown on
bureaucratic corruption. The lack of all three is a major reason for Russia's
economic mess.
On foreign policy, the main effect of the political and economic uncertainty
in the weeks ahead is that Russia will likely play a lesser role on the world
stage, starting with scaling back ambitions to mediate the Kosovo crisis,
analysts say.
The bottom line, according to the sea-change theory, is Yeltsin failed with
his "soft option" of appointing Primakov to disarm the Communists and
nationalists in parliament.
Under the "hard option," Yeltsin would now confront opponents head-on. In the
end, that could include dissolving the Duma, quashing the impeachment process
and ruling by presidential decree.
*******
#15
New York Times
May 14, 1999
Editorial
Dangerous Sideshow in the Kremlin
It is probably too much to expect from Russia's Communist legislators, but
they ought to drop their misguided impeachment drive against Boris Yeltsin
before it further destabilizes the Kremlin. No good can come of this needless
confrontation, and it could produce a protracted crisis that leaves Russia
even more wounded than it is today.
The case has simmered for months, periodically used by the Communists as a
club against Mr. Yeltsin, but it is now moving rapidly toward a vote by the
Duma, possibly before the week is out. Mr. Yeltsin's dismissal of Prime
Minister Yevgeny Primakov has galvanized his opponents, and they may now be
within reach of the simple majority they need in the lower house of
Parliament. Fortunately, additional steps are required before Mr. Yeltsin can
be removed, including approval by two high courts and by two-thirds of the
upper house. Those hurdles are probably insurmountable.
But even a Duma vote to impeach will compound Moscow's political problems.
Though the Russian Constitution forbids a sitting president to dissolve
Parliament after the lower house has approved impeachment charges, Mr.
Yeltsin is quite capable of trying to shut down the legislature anyway. The
same Constitution empowers the president to disband Parliament and call new
elections if the Duma votes three times to reject his choice for Prime
Minister. These clauses could soon be in conflict, for Sergei Stepashin, the
newly designated Prime Minister, may be rejected.
This impasse might be unavoidable if the case against Mr. Yeltsin were
legitimate. Certainly, he has been an erratic and increasingly ineffective
leader, partly because of declining health. But that is not grounds for
impeachment. The Communists, looking for any excuse to remove him, have
assembled an outlandish case. It charges Mr. Yeltsin with responsibility for
the dismantling of the Soviet Union and the impoverishment of the Russian
military. He is also implausibly accused of waging a campaign of genocide
against the Russian people with his economic policies. The only remotely
tenable charge involves the war in Chechnya, which Mr. Yeltsin conducted
without seeking the approval of Parliament.
Russia desperately needs steady, democratic leadership. Mr. Stepashin may be
unproven, but he should be allowed to form a government and get on with the
hard business of reforming and reviving the economy. Impeachment is a
senseless and potentially damaging distraction.
*******
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