April 7, 1999    
This Date's Issues: 3229• 3230 •

 
Johnson's Russia List
#3230
7 April 1999
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. Itar-Tass: PRIMAKOV'S Ailment Not Political, Not Presaging Resignation.
2. Reuters: West must back Russian peace bid on Kosovo-Fischer.
3. AFP: Berezovsky arrest warrant sign of Moscow "class struggle": press.
4. St. Petersburg Times: Brian Whitmore, The Welfare State: Life on 500
Rubles 
a Month.
5. Itar-Tass: World Situation May Aggravate for Long- Sergeyev.
6. Newsday: Michael Slackman, CRISIS IN YUGOSLAVIA / Consul Denies Ethnic 
Cleansing / Milosevic's brother says reports are false.
7. Moscow Times: Igor Semenko, Russia Scrambles to Fill Revenue Gap .
8. Bill Mandel: Re: 3227-Durgin/Soviet Collapse.
9. Robert McIntyre: Aeroflot tickets and Berezovsky.
10. Interfax: Yeltsin's Popularity Fading; Primakov's Growing.
11. Inter Press Service: Health: Caught Between Old and New, Diseases
Rise in Russia.
12. Itar-Tass: Nemtsov Remarks on Actions of Office of Prosecutor-General.
13. AFP: Moscow Mayor's Party Scores Big In Provinces. 
14. Sovetskaya Rossiya: Kremlin at Odds With Public Mood on Yugoslavia.] 

*******

#1
PRIMAKOV'S Ailment Not Political, Not Presaging Resignation.

MOSCOW, April 7 (Itar-Tass) -- There is nothing political about Prime 
Minister Yevgeny Primakov's illness and the postponement of his visit to 
Ukraine, still less about resignation of the Cabinet of Ministers, head of 
the Government information administration Igor Shchegolev told a briefing in 
Moscow on Wednesday. 

According to Igor Shchegolev, the words "political illness" were earlier used 
by himself especially to prevent the media from using the phrase to explain 
the postponement of Primakov's visit to Ukraine until a later date. 

He said journalists who covered the activity of the Prime Minister could 
notice on Wednesday morning that the prime Minister had difficulty moving 
around, strictly due to the pain in the back. 

Asked whether the prime minister was informed about the warrant to arrest 
Boris Berezovsky issued by the Office of the Prosecutor-General, Shchegolev 
replied that no provisions for such notification exist in the government. But 
he expressed confidence that nonetheless Primakov was naturally in the know 
of what was going on. 

*******

#2
West must back Russian peace bid on Kosovo-Fischer

BONN, April 7 (Reuters) - German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer on 
Wednesday urged Western powers to back renewed Russian efforts to negotiate 
peace in Yugoslavia as the Western powers formally rejected a ceasefire offer 
from Belgrade. 

Fischer released an agreed joint statement by Germany, France, Britain, Italy 
and the United States, the five Western countries which together with Russia 
make up the Contact Group on Yugoslavia, rejecting Belgrade's offer as 
``insufficient.'' 

Fischer told a news briefing in Bonn he hoped a ministerial level meeting of 
either the Contact Group or G8 group of major industrial nations could be 
scheduled in the next few days. 

Senior foreign ministry officials from the six Contact Group powers were 
meeting in Brussels on Wednesday to try to arrange a meeting of their 
ministers. 

Fischer said such a meeting was needed, ``so that we can work with the 
Russians on a joint peace effort.'' 

``Russia can, should and must play an important role in taking the 
initiative,'' he said, stressing that he saw Russia, a traditional ally of 
the Serbs who are fighting ethnic Albanian separatists in the region, as 
crucial to any mediation efforts. 

Fischer said he hoped senior Contact Group officials would clear the way for 
their foreign ministers to meet at the end of this week or beginning of next. 

Fischer said the meeting could also be of the G8 nations, meaning Canada and 
Japan would also be included. German government officials have proposed Bonn 
as the venue for the meeting. 

Russian President Boris Yeltsin earlier stepped up his diplomatic drive to 
bring peace to Kosovo, sending a letter containing a new set of proposals to 
Group of Seven leaders, a Russian diplomatic source said. 

No details were available on the content of the letter, which the source said 
was sent out overnight. 

In the joint statement issued in Bonn, the five Western members of the 
Contact Group formally rejected the ceasefire called by Yugoslav President 
Slobodan Milosevic on Tuesday, just before NATO carried out a further bout of 
heavy bombing. 

``Belgrade's proposal provides an insufficient basis for achieving the 
international community's objective,'' it said, saying the aim was for a 
``peaceful, multi-ethnic Kosovo.'' 

*******

#3
Berezovsky arrest warrant sign of Moscow "class struggle": press

MOSCOW, April 7 (AFP) - The Russian press on Wednesday ruminated on the 
arrest warrants slapped on two of the country's leading business barons, the 
latest twist in a political struggle tinged with sleaze and corruption.
In a front page devoted to the attacks on one-time Kremlin insider Boris 
Berezovsky and fellow 'oligarch' Alexander Smolensky, the liberal Sevodnya 
daily declared that a "class struggle" had broken out.

Both tycoons face warrants for their arrest in connection with alleged 
dubious financial practices conducted within their business empires. Both are 
currently out of the country.

"In Russia a class struggle has started, a hunt for famous and rich people, a 
hunt which the left is leading and for which the instrument, willingly or 
not, is the prosecutor general," it said, adding that a witch-hunt was on for 
the "culprits of the economic and political crisis in Russia."

Ivestiya agreed, noting that, "For other figures with political and financial 
clout ... this is also a bad sign." It noted that the money laundering 
charges levelled at Berezovsky carry penalties of property confiscation and 
7-10 years in jail.

Vremya for its part noted that Smolensky "has more than once been named as 
one of the biggest business partners of Berezovsky."

But beneath the obvious conclusion that the authorities are finally taking on 
the so-called 'robber barons' who got rich quick during the transition to the 
market economy lurks a convoluted and murky power struggle, steeped in sleaze 
and corruption allegations, the press noted.

At the eye of the storm lies Yury Skuratov, Russia's prosecutor general, who 
has taken on both Berezovsky and the Kremlin in his corruption probes, and 
whose office issued Tuesday's arrest warrants.

President Boris Yeltsin has twice tried to force Skuratov from office for 
alleged abuse of office, his security sidekicks seizing on a video showing 
the prosecutor cavorting with prostitutes as evidence that he had compromised 
his position.

"The prosecutor general has hit back. The Kremlin, in essence has been 
offered to trade Skuratov for Berezovsky," Segodnya said.

Added Izvestia: "The authorities have decided that they can only get out of 
the persistent dead end of political crisis by getting rid of two of the main 
irritants, Yury Skuratov and Boris Berezovsky." 

*******

#4
St. Petersburg Times
April 6, 1999 
The Welfare State: Life on 500 Rubles a Month 
Some 1.2 million St. Petersburg residents live below the legal poverty
level. Though all of them qualify for financial support, less than a fourth
of them actually receive city benefits. Brian Whitmore looks at St.
Petersburg's crumbling welfare state. 

Leokadia Girs has been victimized by two regimes. Her grandfather was
killed by Bolshevik revolutionaries, and in 1937, when she was just 10
years old, Girs and her entire family were hauled away by the Soviet KGB,
charged with being "enemies of the people" and put in a labor camp. There,
her father, a sister, two uncles and two cousins perished. Girs returned to
her native Leningrad in 1949. Her mother and one sister joined her in 1956
and the family was eventually rehabilitated. Today, Girs, 72, is the only
survivor of the ordeal. 

Back from the camps, Girs tried to put her life back together. She married,
had a son and managed to etch out a modest existence. In 1983, her husband,
a physicist, died and Girs sold the family car and garage, banking the
proceeds - 20,000 rubles, a solid nest egg in those days - to provide for
her old age. 

But the hyper-inflation that followed Russia's shock-therapy in the early
1990s decimated her savings. Now the only source of income for Girs and her
invalid son Alexander is a combined 522 monthly ruble pension. When she
applied for welfare assistance, however, she was turned away by the
Vasilievsky Island district administration, which informed her there were
no funds. 

Such stories are common for St. Petersburg's most destitute residents, who
are forced to survive on meager pensions and are left at the mercy of a
groaning social welfare bureaucracy that is underfinanced and riddled with
corruption allegations. 

According to federal and local law, those whose incomes fall below a
monthly cost of living minimum established by the state are entitled to
government welfare subsidies. Last month, City Hall raised the minimum
monthly survival wage to 1,316.1 rubles for men; 1,116.9 rubles for women;
728.7 rubles for pensioners, 844.7 rubles for children under seven years
old and 1,207.2 rubles for children aged seven to 15. 

In an address to the Legislative Assembly, First Vice Gov. Vyacheslav
Shcherbakov said some 1.2 million St. Petersburg residents have incomes
below the cost of living minimum. According to data provided by the St.
Petersburg Audit Chamber, however, last year only 260,004 St. Petersburg
residents received welfare payments. The 1998, city budget allocated just
70.009 million rubles in subsidies for these families - enough to provide
266.82 rubles per person. 

In 1999, the city increased the welfare budget to 92.070 million rubles,
although, when inflation is taken into account, that amount actually
represents a 12 percent decrease in real terms from 1998, according to
Audit Chamber figures. 

According to the city's budget law, those funds are supposed to be
disbursed by the City Hall's Labor and Social Welfare Committee. Instead,
however, that committee transfers the funds to the city's 20 district
administrations - a practice that violates the law, according to German
Shalyapin, chairman of the St. Petersburg Audit Chamber. 

Officials from the Labor and Social Welfare Committee insist the practice
of routing the funds through the districts is legal. Shalyapin, however, is
worried about the decreased accountability at the district level and has
opened probe into the matter. Shalyapin said that at some district
administrations - he wouldn't say which - signs were posted on the doors
that read "Social assistance has been discontinued." 

Meanwhile, local legislators are beginning to ask questions of their own
about Smolny's social welfare practices. In an official letter to Gov.
Vladimir Yakovlev, lawmaker Natalya Yevdokimova, a member of Yabloko, wrote
that many district administrations were setting their own minimum survival
income levels that were considerably lower than federal and city levels.
Some districts, Yevdokimova wrote, are setting the minimum monthly cost of
living level as low as 400 rubles (about $16.91 at Friday's Central Bank
rate) a month per person - less than half the level established by Smolny
and the federal government. 

Yevdokimova and independent lawmaker Alexander Shchelkanov have also
questioned a decree signed by Yakovlev in January taking 37 million rubles
from the already meager 92.07 million rubles welfare budget for 1999 to
give cash gifts to survivors of the Leningrad Blockade. 

"That money was allocated in the budget exclusively for low income
citizens. The administration is taking money away from the most needy
section of society and giving it to blockade survivors, some of whom are
poor and some of whom are not," said Shchelkanov. 

"This is an empty populist gesture as well as a violation of the budget law." 

The City Prosecutor's Office apparently agrees. In response to a query from
Shchelkanov, the prosecutor responded that Yakovlev's move was illegal and
instructed City Hall to correct the situation. For low-income individuals
and families seeking some form of relief, however, the prosecutor's move
came too late. 

"They said they had no money. They said they gave it all to the blockade
survivors," said Girs. 

But the problem of welfare assistance to St. Petersburg's most
disadvantaged citizens is more than a matter of officials misappropriating
public funds. The real problem is systemic, rooted in Russia's inability to
move from a Soviet-era welfare system that distributed benefits based on
categories of citizens - regardless of their financial situation - to the
type of needs-based programs that exist in Western Europe and the U.S. 

In St. Petersburg certain categories of citizens - including veterans,
pensioners, blockade survivors and victims of political repression -
qualify for benefits like discounts on public transportation and local
telephone service. The city budget pays out a total of 2.58 billion rubles
($102.74 million at Monday's Central Bank rate) for these discounts, money
that is transferred to organizations like the October Railway Co. and the
St. Petersburg Telephone Company based on the number of qualified citizens,
regardless of how many actually use the benefits. 

Additionally, the city budget disburses 22.532 million rubles in cash
assistance to families with 3 or more children, regardless of their
household income; 3.8 million rubles in subsidies to charity organizations;
and 6.18 million rubles in other entitlements to veterans, blockade
survivors and invalids. 

In contrast, the entire means-tested welfare budget for 1999 was 410.964
million rubles ($16.36 million); including 303.6 million rubles for
compensation for housing and utilities fees for poor families and 92.07
million rubles for welfare payments. 

Moving to a means-tested system would mean scrapping many of these sacred
cows - political suicide for any politician who made such an attempt.
Russia also lacks a reliable system to assess citizens' real financial
situation, an essential element in a needs-based welfare system, said
Shchelkanov. 

"The current system suits the authorities," said Shchelkanov, who advocates
reforming Russia's welfare system. "There is so much possibility for
corruption." Shchelkanov added that the present system tends to set various
groups of citizens - blockade victims, war veterans, invalids and
repression victims - against each other over the distribution of benefits. 

"These groups tend to direct their anger against each other, not against
the government, and this also suits the current authorities," he said. 

Some of those unable to make ends meet in St. Petersburg were once members
of the country's cultural elite. Take for example, Yury Bersenev, a ailing
and retired theater director who was repeatedly honored by the Soviet
government, and his wife Alla, who worked in the Ministry of Culture. 

After working as director of the Volkhovsky Peoples' Drama Theater in the
Leningrad Oblast for 19 years, Bersenev, a diabetic, retired due to poor
health in 1992. The couple also lost all their Soviet-era savings to
hyperinflation in the early years of reform. 

The two are now forced to survive on a combined 709-ruble pension. And
although last year the couple received welfare payments of 460 rubles each,
this year, they were told that there would be no money until May. 

When the couple wrote a letter to Gov. Yakovlev, they received a terse
reply from Smolny that simply stated that the level of their pensions were
in accordance with the law. 

The Bersenevs' two-room apartment is modest yet impeccably neat, adorned
with theater posters, books and awards - including one from the U.S.S.R
Supreme Soviet. Berseneva says that on their pensions, the couple can
afford to eat only bread, kasha and occasionally rice. 

"We thought that the governor of Russia's cultural capital would be
interested in the fate of people who have dedicated their entire lives to
supporting culture," said Berseneva 

"We studied and worked and hoped we would be provided for in our old age.
They are killing us and we refuse to die," said Berseneva. "We still hope
that our country still needs us." 

In the absence of state assistance, people like Girs and the Bersenevs are
increasingly being assisted by charity organizations like Podderzhka, or
"support" - an organization founded in 1993 by the husband-and-wife team of
Regina Isat and Anatoly Shamin. The organization solicits humanitarian aid
parcels from the West and distributes the assistance to needy St.
Petersburg families. 

"Our wonderful authorities understand the problems of the underclass only
in the abstract," said Isat. "They have no concept of what it is like to
live on 500 rubles a month." 

*******

#5
World Situation May Aggravate for Long- Sergeyev.

DUSHANBE, April 7 (Itar-Tass) - Russian Defence Minister Igor Sergeyev said 
on Wednesday that he feared "the situation in the world may aggravate for 
long and seriously" as a result of the crisis in the Balkans. 

Sergeyev was speaking before the personnel of the 201st motorized infantry 
division, performing peacekeeping functions in Tajikistan. 

According to Sergeyev, the world is facing its "re-division". "NATO is 
assuming the role of the international gendarme," the minister stressed. 

He said that in the developing situation, Russia will have to revise its 
plans for a further reduction of the armed forces, while Russian lawmakers 
will have to reconsider their attitude towards the financing of the armed 
forces. 

Sergeyev emphasized that a new NATO concept, to be adopted soon, includes two 
principled positions. The first one gives NATO the right to use force without 
the UN Security Council sanction. The second one enables NATO, which was 
created as a defensive union, to operate outside the zone of the alliance's 
responsibility. 

Focusing on the current situation in Yugoslavia, Sergeyev emphasized that in 
the past 24 hours alone, NATO forces performed 136 flights. They targeted on 
broadcasting centres, bridges, industrial and other objects. In essence, they 
are step by step destroying the country's infrastructure, the minister 
stressed. 

Unfortunately, initiatives by Russian President Boris Yeltsin don't find a 
welcome response among the NATO leadership, he stated. Despite Belgrade's 
readiness to withdraw its police formations from Kosovo if air strikes are 
stopped, NATO's heads have so far turned a deaf ear to the offer. 

According to Sergeyev's estimates, NATO is getting ready for a land operation 
in Yugoslavia, although it denies that. He also said the losses among the 
peaceful population and the military are seen as ten to one. Mostly civilians 
are being killed, he stressed. 

Sergeyev also hailed the activity of Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, who, 
according to him, "knows the situation in the armed forces and takes care of 
their fighting capacity like none of his predecessors." 

On Wednesday, Sergeyev is expected back in Moscow. zhe/ezh 

*******

#6
Newsday
7 April 1999
[for personal use only]
CRISIS IN YUGOSLAVIA / Consul Denies Ethnic Cleansing /
Milosevic's brother says reports are false
By Michael Slackman. MOSCOW CORRESPONDENT

Moscow - The West is attacking Yugoslavia not only with bombs but
with propaganda, fictionalizing accounts of Serb attacks on civilians,
mass deportations and an overall strategy of ethnic cleansing, Borislav
Milosevic, the Yugoslav ambassador to Russia said yesterday.
"It's a complete falsification and fabrication," the ambassador,
whose brother is president Slobodan Milosevic, said yesterday of the
allegations of ethnic cleansing by Serbs against the Kosovo Albanians.
Striding into a news conference here, Milosevic, a dapper man
wearing a double-breasted blue suit, flowing silk pocket scarf and a
yellow tie, met with the media in Moscow for the first time since the
attack on his country began.
His message, broadcast without opposing comment across Russia's 11
time zones, was a now-familiar one from Belgrade: NATO, with America as
the main culprit, has launched an all-out offensive against a sovereign
country that has done nothing wrong.
Of reports by Albanian refugees that Serbs are slaughtering
civilians and destroying identification cards, he said: "A fabrication.
A slander."
Asked why there are so few young men among the refugees, a fact that
would seem to confirm reports of men being separated from their families
by Serb authorities, he said: "It is possible that maybe the men want to
go a different way; they can be organized by guerrillas of the KLA."
From the start of the NATO attack on Yugoslavia nearly two weeks
ago, Russia has remained Yugoslavia's strongest and loudest supporter,
decrying the attack as barbaric. The media here have been equally
supportive, for the most part ignoring allegations of attempted
genocide. And so the ambassador was careful yesterday not to offend his
Russian friends, tiptoeing around sensitive topics.
He said, for example, that there have been 300 Serb civilian deaths,
while Russia reported a week ago that already 1,000 civilians were dead.
Asked about the discrepancy, he dipped his head from side to side and
said: "They probably meant the total injured, wounded and killed."
There is strong political support throughout Russia for stepped-up
military aid to the country's ethnic cousins in Yugoslavia. But the
government is wrestling with its own problems, including a currency that
this week hit an all-time low. A few days ago, after sending one
intelligence ship to the Mediterranean, Russia threatened to send six
more. But yesterday, Russia's chief naval officer said no additional
ships would be sent. First Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Maslyukov also
said Russia will not supply military equipment to Yugoslavia.
"Maybe there are some crazy people in Russia who want to supply arms
to Yugoslavia," he said. "It is absolutely impossible and absolutely
unnecessary."
This split between the desire to help and the decision not to help
has fostered an atmosphere of frustration here. This week, a man dressed
in a knight's uniform was arrested after he rode on horseback to the
residence of the U.S. ambassador and shot an arrow over the fence, with
a note attached calling for the end to the bombing campaign.
Milosevic did all he could to stoke that frustration and the
anti-western feelings that have spread across Russia, insisting that
every single allegation of Serb brutality was "a fabrication."
"There are no operations to touch civilians; the people are running
away from the bombs," he said. "There is no forcible deportation. It is
all fabrication. This war is also one of information." 

*******

#7
Moscow Times
April 7, 1999 
Russia Scrambles to Fill Revenue Gap 
By Igor Semenenko
Staff Writer

As budget revenues continue to lag behind their projected level, Russia 
apparently admitted losing the war on tax collection and moved Tuesday 
instead to hike export tariffs on a wide range of goods. 

A higher maximum tax rate aimed at squeezing more money out of the rich that 
came into effect Tuesday is unlikely to make much difference to tax 
collection rates because almost every tax return filed in Russia declares an 
income that falls in the lowest tax bracket anyway, Russia's tax officials 
said. 

Admitting that the authorities had little hope of raising tax collection 
rates, the deputy head of the Tax Ministry's income tax office, Anna 
Komardina, said that more than 90 percent of individuals pay the minimum tax 
rate of 12 percent. 

The new tax regime alters income tax rates to target the higher income 
earners, but the changes will have almost no impact on collection rates, 
according to both tax officials and analysts. 

The top tax rate will also be raised to 45 percent from 35 percent on annual 
incomes of 300,000 rubles or more (about $1,000 a month) as of Jan. 1, 2000. 

Despite a slight increase in tax collection from individuals, the government 
fell short of revenue targets in March, collecting 33.5 billion rubles, 11.6 
percent below target. 

On top of January revenues of 27.7 billion rubles and February revenues of 
25.5 billion rubles, that means Russia has collected all of 86.7 billion 
rubles (about $3.5 billion) for the first quarter of 1999. Over the same 
period, Russia made $2.1 billion in debt repayments, mostly by drawing on its 
hard currency reserves. 

Russia's finances still depend more on global oil prices than on revenues 
from the domestic economy, analysts said. 

They pointed to the customs committee's increasing share of revenues to 
illustrate the point. In March, customs accounted for 43.1 percent of budget 
revenues, 6.4 percent above projections. 

"The bulk of [revenues] should come from export tariffs on oil," said Nancy 
Herring, head of research with Regent European Securities. 

"When they talk about a 2 percent [primary] budget surplus with IMF, they 
should be talking about a higher amount of taxes due precisely to the 
increase in oil prices," she added. 

The International Monetary Fund and Russia recently initialed a deal where 
the fund agreed that it would provide Russia with some sort of credit program 
this year, in return for which Russia committed to a 2 percent primary budget 
surplus excluding debt servicing. 

As long as world oil prices stay above the basement, Russia has an excellent 
chance of meeting that condition.The government in February introduced a 
floating tariff rate on exports of oil, metals and fuel. Under this regime, 
Russia should receive 5 Euros per ton of crude oil exports if export price 
averages above $12.50 a barrel. 

If prices stay at their current level, this should bring in an extra $5.38 
per ton exported, a tasty $45 million a month (roughly 1 billion rubles). 

But realizing that such revenues may not be enough to satisfy both the IMF's 
desires and its own need for funds, the Russian government also moved Tuesday 
to raise or impose export tariffs on a range of commodities, Reuters 
reported. 

The measures may well have been timed to coincide with the arrival of an IMF 
mission in Moscow to discuss an economic program to underpin any loans from 
the fund. Russia needs new cash from the IMF if it is to keep up with its 
currentcommitment to pay about off about $2.7 billion in debts to the IMF, 
the World Bank and Eurobond holders by mid-summer. 

With Central Bank chief Viktor Gerashchenko saying that reserves will shrink 
as low as $10 billion by the end of the month f of which about $4 billion is 
in gold f Russia can no longer go on calling on Central Bank reserves to pay 
off debts, making export revenues more vital than ever. 

But even as economists said that export revenues were Russia's only real hope 
to get its books in order, they warned that Russia's methods were far from 
perfect. 

"The government makes ad hoc adjustments," said Roland Nash, chief economist 
with MFK Renaissance. "They do not seem to be doing a great deal of 
planning." 

Others warned that the state was leaving itself open to external stocks as 
long as it refused to change its basic approach. "I do not see radical 
changes in the tax system," said Boris Bolotin, professor with Institute of 
World Economy and International Relations. 

"Recent increase in oil prices were not caused by fundamental changes," he 
added. "My guess is that in two months the oil price will decline to its 
previous level." The price for benchmark Brent crude surged to $15 per barrel 
at the end of March from under $11 in January. 

*******

#8
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 
From: Bill Mandel <wmmmandel@earthlink.net> 
Subject: Re: 3227-Durgin/Soviet Collapse

For Durgin to ascribe the collapse of the Soviet system to a 
drinking spree by three individuals is to subscribe to the 
cult of the individual. If the Soviet system retained the 
vitality it unquestionably had in earlier decades (I have 
seen it at first hand over a period of sixty-eight years), 
no body and no alcohol could have imploded it. The signs of 
collapse first appeared in the 1970s when my late dear 
friend Lynn Turgeon asked if I could explain the rise in 
infant mortality in Central Asia. I couldn't, and alcohol 
was not a serious problem there. What happened was that, in 
the total absence of a market, the burocracy making the 
decisions that the market makes had to bloat to the point at 
which it choked on its own weight. And the suppression of 
free expression and organization left the people incapable 
of and unready to work out alternatives quickly.
With respect to Cohen‹this is not on the economy‹while 
I hold similar views in the realm of foreign policy, I can't 
agree that the Soviet system was reformable to the end, 
although I thought so then. Also, the fact that there has 
been no upheaval on grounds of poverty, while the war on 
Yugoslavia has politicized the youth overnight, 
substantiates my suspicion that Cohen, when in Russia, has 
associated too much with fellow academics and too little 
with the person in the street, particularly outside Moscow.
An unrelated matter of interest. Your report of the 
Pentagon's decision to issue a Certificate of participation 
in the Cold War is very revealing. The dates within which 
former members of the armed forces may apply for that 
certificate are from the very day of victory over Japan to 
the day of dissolution of the Soviet Union. In a word, the 
Cold War began before the USSR had a chance to do the things 
over which Washington claimed we waged it. In other, words, 
we started it. Why did we start it? The terminal date for 
the Certificate is not that when Gorbachev, as head of the 
USSR, took steps to cool the Cold War and win Western 
confidence, but the date the Soviet Union was dissolved. In 
other words, the purpose of the Cold War was not to avoid a 
war but to bring the USSR to an end. Q.E.D.

******

#9
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 
From: "Robert McIntyre" <mcintyre@wider.unu.edu> 
Subject: Aeroflot tickets and Berezovsky

An observation and inquiry: Aeroflot tickets that I have bought in 
Moscow last year and as recently as 3 March 1999 ("$254.84 = 5,869.00 
ARMENIAN DRAM") using US Visa and Mastercard credit cards are charged 
in Armenian Dram. Is this a skimming tactic or is there a 
plausible explanation for this?

Dr. Robert J. McIntyre
Project Director, Transition from Below
UNU/WIDER (World Institute for Development Economics Research) 
Katajanokanlaituri 6B
00160 Helsinki
FINLAND

******

#10
Yeltsin's Popularity Fading; Primakov's Growing 

MOSCOW, April 2 (Interfax) -- Russian sociologists 
say Russian President Boris Yeltsin's rating has fallen considerably. A 
survey of 1600 Russians was conducted on March 27-30. Director of the 
All-Russian Center for Public Opinion Studies (VTSIOM) Yuriy Levada said 
Friday [2 April] at a press conference in Moscow that only 6% of those 
polled supported Yeltsin. Ninety-two percent were against his activities, 
and 2% were undecided. According to the poll, Prime Minister Yevgeniy 
Primakov's popularity rating continues to grow. Levada said that 64% of 
those polled supported Primakov, 25% disapproved of his activities and 
11% were undecided. Asked whether they would favor giving full authority 
in the country to the Communist party, 25% percent of respondents 
[passage indistinct] going to take part in "the protests which will be 
organized by the Communists if the president tries to dismiss the current 
government;" 8% will participate; and 8% were undecided.

*******

#11
Health: Caught Between Old and New, Diseases Rise in Russia
Inter Press Service

MOSCOW, (Apr. 5) PANOS/IPS - In the late 1980s, Boris Yeltsin, the future 
Russian president, publicly swapped his special elite "Kremlin" medical 
center for an ordinary district clinic. 

The populist move was duly applauded but he really ran no risk -- the 
existing healthcare system guaranteed suitable medical treatment for all -- 
and it was free. 

How things have changed. 

The ailing Yeltsin is now treated in the elite Central Clinical Hospital, 
cared for by imported physicians -- and the tale of the district clinic is 
remembered as only a parable to illustrate Russia's crumbling healthcare 
system. 

Economic reforms, begun in 1992, have had two key effects in Russia: the 
dismantling of the social safety net and the spread of poverty. On the 
ground, this has also meant the spread of tuberculosis, alcoholism, HIV/AIDS 
and other sexual transmitted diseases. 

The healthcare system underwent budget cuts just when the whole health 
protection system was sought to be replaced by a compulsory health insurance 
system. 

The result was that while the old guarantees had been removed, the new system 
did not work. In 1999, it still doesn't. 

Money is one problem. Vladimir Usanov, press secretary of the Health 
Committee of Russian Parliament says the government plans to spend 109.9 
billion rubles (less than five billion U.S. dollars) on health in 1999. 

This amounts to a per capita health expenditure of $32.50 for Russia's 147 
million people. In comparison, the United States spends up to $4,000 and 
Western European countries $1,500-$2,000. 

The comparison may be wrong: the World Bank now classes Russia as a 
developing country. More than 30 percent of Russian families live below the 
poverty line. And stress, undernourishment, loss of savings and growing 
unemployment have all pooled to create a new threat for post-Cold War Russia 
-- infectious diseases. 

It seems like another era today, but it wasn't very many years ago that 
authorities in the then Soviet Union were exuding confidence about seeing off 
tuberculosis. 

Typically, Soviet authorities even prepared a special decree entitled "On The 
Liquidation Of Tuberculosis." 

But the rate of TB infection has spread so rapidly since 1992 that far from 
liquidating it, Russia now ranks among the 10 countries with the highest 
levels of infections in the world. In 1998 there were 74 TB cases per 100,000 
population. The death rate from it has more than doubled over the last five 
years. 

To its credit, Yeltsin's cash-strapped government has launched an anti-TB 
program but experts say its success will depend on financing and, ironically, 
the revival of the old prevention and control systems. 

Accelerating HIV infection is another health scourge today. In 1987 there 
were only 24 officially registered HIV cases in Russia. By 1998-end there 
were 10,043. 

Many think the real figure may be 10 times higher. At today's transmission 
rate, Russia will h ave five times more HIV-positive people than now by the 
year 2000, experts say. 

Recent market reforms have not helped matters. The introduction of user fees 
and compulsory health insurance system, for instance, are thought to have 
radically changed the way people can access medical treatment. 

"Compulsory health insurance makes working with infected people more 
difficult," says Gennady Roshchupkin of AIDS Info Connection, a 
nongovernmental organization. 

According to Roshchupkin, AIDS patients find it difficult to access regular 
medical assistance because private insurance companies have carved up Russia 
into exclusive marketing zones. 

Moscow is a good example of the way private insurance works. 

Medical assistance to HIV-positive people in Moscow -- as in all of Russia -- 
is provided at special state AIDS clinics. But Moscow oblast (the Moscow 
administrative region surrounding the city) has no AIDS clinics of its own 
and has traditionally relied on clinics in the city. 

This posed few problems in the past, but now Moscow city no longer accepts 
infected people from the outlying areas because the Moscow city insurance 
company cannot recover the expense from the Moscow oblast company. 

The other so-called alternative is user fees -- the system where even 
state-owned clinics and hospitals are encouraged to charge for the health 
services they deliver. Roshchupkin insists that this increases choice. 

That sounds more like wishful thinking in a country where, according to the 
United Nations Development Program, one in five workers is probably out of 
work; average real wages dropped by more than a third in 1991-94 
(agricultural wages by more than half ); and income inequality has soared. 

Life expectancy for Russian men, at 57.6 years, is lower than the average for 
all developing countries (64 years). 

In the case of HIV/AIDS, although by Federal law all medical assistance for 
HIV-positive people must be provided free, the city of Moscow is the only 
authority that carries this out. 

In theory, all AIDS drugs can be bought off the shelf. In practice - with a 
monthly dose costing $1,000-$1,200 -- only a handful can 
afford them. If HIV is accompanied by hepatitis, treatment can cost up to 
$2,500 per month. 

To cushion the impact of paid medicine, some vulnerable groups such as 
pensioners and the disabled were given the right to some free drugs. 
Originally, the list comprised 385 drugs. But it was cut by 25 percent last 
year because of mounting costs. 

Elena Artuchina, a 65-year-old pensioner and heart patient, says: "Because of 
arthritis I need strong painkillers and some sleeping pills and I had the 
right to receive them for free. Recently I was refused the painkillers as the 
list of free medicines had been shortened. Now I receive another medicine but 
it is not as good as the one before." 

Some experts fear the worst: they say the rapidly deteriorating financial 
crisis means that less and less people with TB or the AIDS virus are likely 
to receive free medical treatment. 

With the death rate overtaking the birth rate by 1.7 times (800,000 
annually), the spread of infectious diseases is something Russia just cannot 
afford, they say. 

The one silver lining is a legacy from the former Soviet days: the enthusiasm 
and professionalism of doctors and a still-first rate medical education 
system. 

These, say experts, give cause to hope Russia's health will start to improve 
one day. 

*******

#12
Nemtsov Remarks on Actions of Office of Prosecutor-General.

MOSCOW, April 7 (Itar-Tass) - Russia's former Vice-Premier Boris Nemtsov 
believes that the sanction to arrest prominent businessmen Boris Berezovsky, 
the sanction given on the eve of suspended Prosecutor-General Yuri Skuratov's 
speech in the pro-Communist Duma, indicates that "the prosecutor's office is 
under a powerful pressure of the Communist Party and acts an its bidding". 

Nemtsov, who leads the Young Russia liberal movement, told journalists here 
on Wednesday that a "political nature of the actions of the prosecutor's 
office" is evident. 

In the opinion of Nemtsov, "there will be no order in the country as long as 
the prosecutor's office fills politically- motivated orders". He believes 
that since everyone should be equal before the law, it becomes topical "to 
lift the immunity of deputies and governors". 

"In Russia, everyone should be equal before the law -- from oligarchs, 
members of government, and the staff of the Presidential administration to 
governors, mayors, and members of the State Duma," Nemtsov said. 

*******

#13
Moscow Mayor's Party Scores Big In Provinces 

MOSCOW, Apr. 07, 1999 -- (Agence France Presse) Local parliamentary elections 
held Tuesday in the Russian republic of Udmurtia surprised observers with an 
impressive showing of Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov's new political party, NTV 
television reported. 

Out of 100 seats in the region's Duma, or lower house of parliament, almost 
half went to members of Otyechestvo, or Fatherland, the centrist party formed 
last year by Moscow's powerful mayor. 

The communists, who previously enjoyed popularity in the Volga province, 
suffered a serious loss in the elections, cutting their number of seats by 
almost two-thirds. 

Fatherland politicians now hold the largest representation of any party in 
the region's Duma. 

Luzhkov, a pragmatic politician who espouses a moderate economic policy and 
nationalistic political views, launched the party last November with the 
intention of sweeping this year's elections to the State Duma. 

He has also announced his hopes for Fatherland's success in next year's 
presidential elections, while remaining vague about his personal ambitions 
for the nation's highest office. 

Luzhkov's critics have previously voiced doubts over the mayor's potential 
for success outside the nation's capital, which has seen relatively rapid 
progress under Luzhkov while Russia's provinces continue to decline. ( (c) 
1999 

*******

#14
Kremlin at Odds With Public Mood on FRY 

Sovetskaya Rossiya 
1 April 1999
[translation for personal use only]
Article by Vyacheslav Tetekin: "Caution Or Timidity?" 

The U.S. missiles exploding in Yugoslavia had very 
loud and unexpected repercussions in Russia. The tumultuous protest 
rallies around the U.S. Embassy in Moscow mark the entry into the 
political arena of hitherto "slumbering" social forces. The bombing of 
Serbia has led to the radicalization of youth. The United States has 
suffered a massive political defeat in Russia: The fruits of its efforts 
over many years and the many billions spent on indoctrinating Russian 
youth in the spirit of "Western values" were destroyed in a trice. 
Amid the tumultuous youth protests another very significant phenomenon 
went practically unnoticed: the constant sound of car horns around the 
U.S. Embassy. The youth picket was strongly supported by people driving 
along the Garden Ring. This means that the Americans were opposed not 
only by students and schoolchildren, but by the relatively successful 
middle class. Just as many (if not more) Mercedes and Audis were sounding 
their horns as modest Zhigulis. 

For the first time in recent years the scale and intensity of the 
spontaneous protest defined the public mood: The pro-NATO lobby on 
television was forced to bite its tongue, Messrs. Yavlinskiy and Gaydar 
started condemning their American friends' actions, while Chubays 
actually tried to ride the wave of public indignation by sending a group 
of friends on a "peacemaking" mission to Mrs. Albright and the pope. 

The Moscow authorities banned picketing outside the U.S. Embassy 
precisely because the anti-American feeling was starting to become 
dangerous and was causing the United States serious concern. 

In these conditions the usually brusque and decisive State Duma 
appeared rather wishy-washy. There was no lack of fiery speeches and the 
preamble to the statement adopted at the Duma emergency sitting on 27 
March very strongly condemned NATO aggression. But the part of the 
statement containing recommendations to the president and government had 
been effectively watered down; the wording of very important proposals, 
for example, on withdrawing from international sanctions against 
Yugoslavia, was extremely vague. 

This reflects above all the fact that the State Duma International 
Affairs Committee is under the control of Yabloko, which has a special 
liking for the United States. Mr. V. Lukin is not doing much himself, but 
he is skillfully paralyzing the patriotic opposition's initiatives. The 
left in parliament has no clear leader in foreign policy matters in the 
way that, for example, Yu. Maslyukov was in economic matters, and this is 
having a major effect. 

But the State Duma's "soft" resolution is a Pyrrhic victory for the 
executive branch, which wants to settle the conflict over Yugoslavia 
quietly. B. Yeltsin's supporters are pressing for the 14 April 
impeachment vote to be canceled. But if the president's incomprehensible 
policy on Yugoslavia continues, then in mid-April the five counts of the 
indictment will certainly be joined by another one -- betrayal of our 
strategic ally. 

The sonorous rhetoric of the head of the Foreign Ministry, Mr. I. Ivanov 
will not deceive anyone. Having made loud statements at first, Moscow 
immediately started to try to reassure the alliance that there would be 
no major steps. But this is a matter of basic diplomatic technique: You 
may not be taking the toughest steps, but why announce this at the very 
start of the conflict. 

Incidentally, the Russian Federation Foreign Ministry also had a hand in the 
present situation by supporting UN Security Council Resolution 1190 on 
the need to halt the conflict in Kosovo at all costs, which was 
interpreted by NATO as a mandate for tougher action. And the "Contact 
Group" ultimatum was put forward with Russia's involvement. The Americans 
then despicably replaced the document with something else, but the 
Russian Foreign Ministry kept quiet, which gave NATO propaganda grounds 
for claiming that Yugoslavia had gone against the opinion of the "world 
community." 

Reasonable caution is necessary, of course, in such a complex situation. But 
the timidity of the Russian executive branch about taking absolutely 
essential (and expected by the West) measures like withdrawing from the 
sanctions regime against Yugoslavia is unwarranted. Strangely enough, 
Russia's failure to adopt a firm stance increased the possibility of 
obtaining IMF credit. The last thing the Americans, who have now been 
drawn into two regional military conflicts (in Iraq and Yugoslavia), want 
now is deteriorating relations with Russia. If credit is refused such a 
deterioration would be practically inevitable. 

Moreover, the United States needs Russia. The Americans, with their typical 
obtuseness, are beginning to get bogged down in another morass like 
Vietnam. The first phase of the bombing had only a negative effect 
(increasing anti-Americanism worldwide). The wave of protest lashed the 
world to such an extent that the U.S. State Department was forced to 
issue instructions to strengthen security measures at U.S. embassies and 
to tell U.S. citizens abroad to be more careful. 

Moreover, the missile attacks on Yugoslavia have given rise to the very wave 
of refugees and "humanitarian disaster" NATO had allegedly sought to 
prevent. The Yugoslavs have drastically stepped up the struggle against 
armed separatists in Kosovo. This means that the bombing of Yugoslavia 
has had the diametrically opposite effect. Ye. Primakov's visit to 
Belgrade could provide the United States with an opportunity to get out 
of the hole it is falling into. 

In a number of emotional speeches in recent days there have been 
pronouncements to the effect that not only Serbia but the UN system is 
perishing beneath the American bombs. But it is too early to bury Serbia 
and the United Nations. It is well known that the UN Security Council 
draft resolution condemning NATO aggression against Yugoslavia submitted 
by Russia and Belarus was supported by India and China. But little 
attention was paid to the support for the resolution by Namibia, which 
has a population one-thousandth (!) of that of China. This small African 
country firmly defended the United Nations. Namibia's stance symbolizes 
the stance of very many developing countries. The United Nations' 
resources have not only not been exploited, but they have not even begun 
to be exploited. The Yugoslav crisis could be critical to the struggle 
against attempts to impose a "new world order." There is a need for very 
hard work by Russian diplomacy. Can it do this? 

Incidentally, the Russian Foreign Ministry is also on the Garden Ring, not 
far 
from the U.S. Embassy. The young people may get mixed up.... 

*******