March 16, 1999    
This Date's Issues: 3092•3093  • 

Johnson's Russia List
#3093
16 March 1999
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. Reuters: Russian Duma gives PM boost ahead of U.S. trip.
2. The Independent (UK): Helen Womack, Street Life - A democratic waste 
of time.
3. Itar-Tass: Stroyev Calls Conference on Economic Priorities in Russia.
4. AFP: Russia asks for Japanese help in Siberia, Far East.
5. Moscow Times: Kirill Koriukin, Maslyukov's Bank Built on Dreams .
6. Itar-Tass: Russia Seeks to Make Transition to Market Easier for Women.
7. RFE/RL: Paul Goble, NATO: Analysis From Washington -- Competing Visions 
Of Alliances's Future. 
8. AFP: Tax service seeks to shame Russians into paying their dues.
9. Moscow Times: Peter Ekman, Yavlinsky's Turn at Bat.
10. New York Times: Thomas L. Friedman, The Doomsday A-List.
11. Reuters: More Jews leave Russia amid crisis, anti-Semitism.
12. David Rowell: A different perspective on Sexual Harrassment.
13. T. S. White: Sexual harassment fact opposes truth: response to Varoli 
and Dent.]

*******

#1
Russian Duma gives PM boost ahead of U.S. trip
By Andrei Khalip

MOSCOW, March 16 (Reuters) - Russia's State Duma lower house of parliament
gave Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov a boost on Tuesday by opening the way
for the long-delayed ratification of the START-2 arms reduction treaty with
Washington. 

The decision by the Communist-dominated chamber to allow renewed debates on
the 1993 pact just ahead of Primakov's trip to the United States next week
seemed less than coincidental. 

Political analysts last week asked whether the Duma had deserted Primakov
when it voted for a cut in value-added tax, which was against International
Monetary Fund recommendations. 

The government, trying hard to convince the Fund to unfreeze its loans to
crisis-hit Russia, had asked the Duma to postpone the VAT cut. But the
chamber did not give in, an unusual sign of defiance since it approved
Primakov as premier last August. 

The analysts see START-2 ratification as a major atmospheric factor in
helping to win new credits from the IMF. Primakov is due to fly to
Washington next week to try to push forward uneasy talks with the IMF and
to meet U.S. officials. 

Duma speaker Gennady Seleznyov said the managing Duma council agreed on
Tuesday to send a letter asking Yeltsin to exercise his right to request
the ratification of an international treaty. 

Asked whether a debate could take place before Primakov goes to Washington,
he said: ``Consultations are under way, but I cannot rule this out.'' 

The Duma has dragged its feet over the pact, which would slash the
countries' deployed nuclear warheads by two thirds. The Kremlin and
government have urged the Duma to ratify it. 

Ratification was further postponed after the United States launched attacks
against Iraq and signalled it may want changes to the 1972 U.S.-Soviet
Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty -- seen in Moscow as a backbone of world
nuclear deterrence. 

The Duma made clear its support did not extend beyond Primakov, who is less
reform-minded than his predecessors. 

Deputies also agreed on Tuesday to set April 15 as the start of a debate on
impeaching Yeltsin. 

Under the constitution, drawn up under Yeltsin in 1993, it is all but
impossible to impeach the president, even if the motion makes it through
the lower house. But Yeltsin, whose term ends in mid-2000, cannot dissolve
the Duma after the start of the impeachment process. 

A special Duma commission has considered and confirmed five impeachment
charges against Yeltsin that had been brought up by the opposition
Communists. 

Among other things, Yeltsin is accused of illegally launching the 1994-96
war in separatist Chechnya and using the army and tanks to quell a
parliamentary rebellion in 1993. He is also accused of causing the 1991
demise of the Soviet Union. 

*******

#2
The Independent (UK)
16 March 1999
[for personal use only]
Street Life - A democratic waste of time
By Helen Womack 

Samotechny Lane: Recently I was invited to speak at a college of higher
education in Moscow. The director looked visibly nervous when I pushed the
lectern aside, sat among the students and asked them what they thought
about the future of Russia. A lively discussion ensued. 

"Anti-Semitism is a danger. Anybody who incites racial hatred should be
prosecuted." 

"If this is a real democracy, you should be free to express any opinion you
want. And anyway, what's wrong with the idea of Russia for the Russians?" 

"Sure, we need a new national idea. We can't go on depending on the West.
But hating the Jews is a pretty lousy idea." 

The students enjoyed themselves so much that they asked me to "come and
give another talk" sometime and several took down my telephone number. 

So it was that last week, I received a call from Irina, the young woman who
had been searching for a positive national idea. Full of excitement, she
asked if I would go and hear her speak at the launch of a "youth
parliament". It seemed like a good opportunity to catch more of the Russian
student debate. 

The venue was the social club of the Moscow Aviation Institute. This
college has been a hotbed of anti-Americanism since Washington included it
on a blacklist of Russian institutions denied funds because of alleged
atomic co-operation with Iran. In this setting, I envisaged a clash of
Slavophiles and Westernisers, representatives of the two schools of thought
that have vied with each other throughout Russian history. 

The students were also expecting verbal fireworks, as they overflowed the
1,500-seat hall. Instead, we were treated to a display of ballroom dancing
by girls and army cadets, who swirled against a white backdrop, decorated
with an image of a stork building a nest. 

"Have I got the right place? I thought this was the youth parliament," I
said to the woman next to me. She was wearing a badge, identifying her as
an organiser. 

"Be patient. There will be a few speeches now. And we will endorse a couple
of documents. Then the students will take the floor." 

It turned out that the event was organised by Dobro (Good), a new centrist
political movement of those who see the improvement of education as the key
to Russian development. The idea of the youth parliament was to raise civic
consciousness among the young. Also, I gathered, to give them some
alternative to neo-Fascist movements such as Russian National Unity. 

Would there be political parties in this mock parliament? No. The young
people would develop their ideas in committees covering such subjects as
the economy, law reform and ecology. There would be a "council of the
wise", or body of grown-ups to make sure debate did not get out of hand. 

The Minister of Education was the first of many adult speakers to come on
stage and complain of the width of the generation gap, the loss of
spirituality in Russia, the drug problem and the lack of respect for the
law. As at an old Communist Party congress, the students sat in rows,
unable to interject with comments or questions. 

Gradually, they got up and left. They were voting with their feet. I
followed three girls out into the foyer and discovered they were journalism
students. "We had thought we might write about this but it is so dull,"
said one. "It's just like the Komsomol [the now-defunct Communist youth
league]." 

Irina was pacing up and down in the corridor. A would-be politician, she
had an interest in staying, as she was slated to speak when the "New Faces"
or selected promising students were finally given access to the microphone.
"I'm going to call for tax cuts to stimulate business," she said. 

I fear she ended up speaking to an empty hall. To my shame, I did not stay
to support her. Two hours into the proceedings, when the adults were still
droning on, I left with a group of computer students. They were healthily
patriotic, not anti-Western. On the side of the angels, they had been ready
to join a "good" youth movement. But they had been bored away. 

We parted in an underpass, spray-painted with the swastikas of Russian
National Unity. I suspect it will be a long time before the nest-building
stork enters the repertoire of the graffiti artist. For many Russian
youths, black leather and fascism are still more fun. 

*******

#3
Stroyev Calls Conference on Economic Priorities in Russia.

MOSCOW, March 16 (Itar-Tass) - Federation Council chairman Yegor Stroyev
called for holding a conference on priorities and mechanisms of Russia's
economic policy during the crisis. 

Speaking after a round table in the upper house of parliament on Monday,
Stroyev said such a conference could be held in the beginning of April and
involve representatives of all branches of power and science. 

He supported Gazprom head Rem Vyakhirev's proposal to work out a comprehensive
economic development concept. 

Stroyev said he would relay the proposals put forth at the round table to
Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov. 

"Russia will revive through regions and its own reserves," he said. "We have a
huge potential, but the economy cannot develop without grass-root
initiative.... New mechanisms strengthening the role of the state but not
replacing the market should also take into account the energy potential,
entrepreneurial imitative and our natural resources and conditions in which we
live," Stroyev said. 

He stressed the need to "reverse the situation" in the country. "We will not
live better in the near future, but we can hardly live worse," he said. 

*******

#4
Russia asks for Japanese help in Siberia, Far East

TOKYO, March 15 (AFP) - A senior Russian minister Tuesday asked Japan to help
develop energy, transport and telecommunications in Sibera and other far
eastern areas.

First Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Maslyukov, on a four-day visit here, urged
Japan to bolster business links with Russia, according to a Japanese foreign
ministry official.

Russia "expects Japan's cooperation in energy, transport and telecom projects
in Siberia and far east region," he was quoted as telling a two-day joint
officials' meeting on Japan-Russia business ties.

Maslyukov called on officials to lay the groundwork for projects in trade and
telecommunications.

And he urged them to propose medium- and long-term projects which included the
private sector.

Maslyukov, who arrived Sunday, was to meet Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi,
Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura and business leaders later in the day,
according to officials.

At an informal Siberian summit in November 1997, Russian President Boris
Yeltsin and then Japanese premier Ryutaro Hashimoto agreed to reach an accord
and sign a peace treaty by 2000.

But aside from good intentions, little progress has been made in negotiations,
largely due to an ownership row over a group of islands occupied by the Soviet
army in the final days of World War II.

The islands are known as the Southern Kurils in Russia and the Northern
Territories in Japan.

Negotiations on the peace treaty have been conducted from behind closed doors.

Comments from officials on both sides suggest Moscow is keen to separate the
islands issue from a treaty and economic cooperation, while Tokyo insists they
are linked. 

********

#5
Moscow Times
March 16, 1999 
Maslyukov's Bank Built on Dreams 
By Kirill Koriukin
Staff Writer 

First Deputy Prime Minister Yury Maslyukov has finally succeeded in
getting his cherished dream of a Russian state financial institution to
revive Russian industry through targeted investment, but it looks to be a
lame duck. 

Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov last Thursday signed a resolution creating
the state-owned Russian Development Bank, or RBR, with a start up charter
capital of just 375 million rubles ($16 million). The government has said
it will increase the capital to 4 billion rubles at a later date. 

But there is no money for the bank. 

RBR's charter capital is supposed to come from the parliament's 21 billion
ruble development budget - which itself has yet to see a kopek. The budget
is built on hopes of some 18 billion rubles from foreign lenders and 3
billion rubles in tax revenues. 

Seeing as there is no development budget, the government is looking to the
Central Bank to shell out the money. However, the bank is unlikely to cast
away the main pillar of its economic policy by cranking up the printing
presses, analysts said. 

The bank is striving to stabilize the ruble and will not give up the
battle just to support Maslyukov's pet project, said Andrei Ivanov, a
banking analyst at Troika Dialog. 

"The Central Bank is more keen on monetarist measures such as limiting the
amount of rubles in the economy and stabilizing the dollar rate than
implementing the government's policy," he said. 

When the state asked the bank to cough up several billion rubles at the
end of last year to pay wages and pensions, the bank obliged for a short
time and then stopped, saying more rubles would lead to hyperinflation. 

The Central bank would probably agree to fund the project if it gains
control of RBR, analysts said. The state now holds a 75 percent stake. 

It is likely that "the Central Bank is not going to finance RBR if it is
not going to control it," said Alexei Vasilyev, an analyst at Skate
financial information agency. 

In any case, the Central Bank "will not give a loan until RBR is created,
gets a license, management is appointed, infrastructure is created, and it
has dozens of projects in its portfolio," Ivanov said. 

Another financing source could be state-owned Sberbank, which is also
Maslyukov's personal preference. 

However, analysts said that Sberbank would balk at the idea of simply
transferring funds to the new bank. Instead, it would be willing to
disburse loans for RBR and thus be able to decide who qualifies to receive
money. 

The final solution to the funding nightmare may be a simple offset scheme.
Revenues from profitable companies like oil exporters could be channeled
through the RBR directly to recipient industries rather than the budget,
Vasilyev said. 

*******

#6
Russia Seeks to Make Transition to Market Easier for Women.

UNITED NATIONS, March 15 (Itar-Tass) - The Russian government is doing
everything possible to alleviate the social difficulties caused by the
transition to a market economy for women, Russian Vice-Prime Minister
Valentina Matviyenko said. 

Speaking at the 43rd session of the U.N. Commission on the Status of Women,
Matviyenko said that "we in Russia have realised particularly well how hard it
is to find the best way of transition to a market economy." 

"Women in Russia make up half of the economically active population. Their
potential provides a tremendous resource for resolving the crisis, " she said.

Women have to be assisted "in adapting to a market environment and using their
efforts most effectively," Matviyenko noted. 

"This is where we hope for constructive cooperation with the international
community. Areas of such cooperation should be expanded considerably," she
added. 

Speaking about "social security" of women, Matviyenko said that "violence
against women is social ailment of society and we will face its recurrences in
the 21st century." 

"The problem of social security is particularly important to us in Russia and
the essence of our policy is providing targeted assistance to those who really
need it and giving social protection to those who have found themselves in a
difficult situation.... Most of them are women," she said. 

********

#7
NATO: Analysis From Washington -- Competing Visions Of Alliances's Future
By Paul Goble

Washington, 15 March 1999 (RFE/RL) -- Last Friday's celebration of the formal
inclusion of Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic into NATO highlighted the
existence of three very different views among alliance members about the
nature of the challenges they face and about the proper role of the Western
alliance in meeting them. 

The first view, articulated most strongly by the leaders of the newest members
of the alliance, might be called the traditional one. It identifies Russia as
the most likely potential threat. And it presents NATO as a guarantee of the
independence and security of alliance members precisely because it, unlike all
other European institutions, involves the power of the United States in the
defense of the continent.

The second view, reflected in the speeches of many European leaders,
simultaneously downplays the possibility of a Russian threat but insists that
the alliance not expand its mission beyond its traditional one as a defense
pact. Some of those who hold this view stress the role of the alliance in
maintaining a link with the U.S., while others see it a security system that
will permit the gradual expansion of Europe itself.

And the third view, presented primarily by U.S. officials, shares the
assessment of most Europeans that Russia is no longer a threat but argues that
other threats to the security of the continent, such as the conflicts in
Bosnia and Kosovo, mean that NATO must assume a new and more active role, even
if that means the alliance must redefine itself as something other than simply
a defensive one.
As they have in the past, spokesmen and commentators in alliance countries
insisted that these views did not reflect any fundamental divisions in the
alliance. Instead, they said, such variations in view were simply matters of
differing emphasis on parts of a common agenda. 

But in the absence of a common threat which all members agree upon, these
differences are likely to grow. And to the extent that happens, they are thus
likely to have a profound impact on those who have joined or want to join the
alliance, on links between European members of the alliance and the United
States, and on relations between NATO, its particular members, and the Russian
Federation. 

The most immediate impact of these divisions within the alliance may be on
those countries who have just become members and on those who want to join as
soon as possible. All of these countries want to join NATO because they see
the Western alliance as the best means of protecting themselves from a new
Russian threat. If they discover that the alliance now has a different agenda,
they may find themselves in some difficulty. 

The governments of these countries have justified the financial costs of NATO
membership in terms of popular expectations that NATO has not changed. If it
becomes too obvious that the Western alliance has, at least some portions of
their populations may be less willing to pay those costs.

And these regimes have counted on the alliance precisely because of its
American dimension. If they decide that Europe and the United States are
moving in different directions on security questions, that too may lead some
to question the value of alliance membership.

The impact of these differences on ties between NATO's European members and
the United States, however, is also likely to grow. Not only are Europeans
seeking to play a larger role in a grouping long dominated by Washington and
thus prepared to play up divisions that earlier they would have suppressed,
but the U.S. also appears to many of them divided on the future role for NATO
and thus open to pressure.

Both Europe and the United States downplay any immediate Russian threat.
Indeed, both appear to want to include Moscow in ever more alliance councils.
But they openly disagree on what Europeans call "out of area" activities and
what Americans stress are the major challenges facing the West now -- the
violence in the Yugoslav successor states.

But the greatest impact of these differences within the alliance is likely to
be on relations between the alliance and its individual member, on the one
hand, and Moscow, on the other. 

The Russian leadership not only opposes the expansion of the Western alliance
to the east but also believes that NATO, which it describes as a "relic of the
Cold War," should cease to exist. Consequently, it is almost certain to seek
to exploit these differences in approach in at least three ways.

First, it is likely to try to avoid any step so overtly threatening that it
would unite the alliance once again. Second, it is likely to continue to reach
out to European countries, such as Germany, that appear most opposed to
American efforts to redefine the mission of the alliance. 

And third, Moscow is likely to try to play up the notion of a special
relationship with Washington, something that may anger Europeans and restrict
U.S. efforts to overcome these divisions within the alliance itself. 

Fifty years ago, one observer commented that NATO existed to "keep the
Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down." Now, both the divisions
within the alliance and the policies of its members could create a situation
in all of these would be reversed -- with the Russians increasingly inside
Europe, the American role there reduced, and the roles of individual European
states far larger and more unpredictable. 

******

#8
Tax service seeks to shame Russians into paying their dues

MOSCOW, March 15 (AFP) - Bookless schoolchildren, cash-strapped pensioners and
freezing orphans have been pressed into service by Russia's tax ministry in a
bid to shame Russians into paying their taxes.

A nationwide television and poster campaign aims for the pocket via the heart,
hammering home the message "please, pay your taxes" with pictures of the
different categories of Russia's forlorn.

The television campaign is built around a series of short clips: a teacher
handing out a book to five pupils who rush to grab the rare copy; an orphan
crouched beside an ice-covered radiator; pensioners collecting empty glass
bottles from the icy streets.

A solemn, male voice then implores Russia's wage earners: "Please, pay your
taxes."

The campaign slogan is repeated on billboards across Moscow which feature. One
of the posters in the form of a large black and white photograph of an elderly
lady with a look of supplication in her eyes.

As every year, millions of Russians "forget" to pay their taxes by the April 1
deadline, robbing the state of vital funds to pay state workers, pensions and
maintain its creaking social infrastructure.

Filing a tax return became a legal requirement only in 1991: tax was deducted
at source during the Soviet era.

The assault on the heartstrings comes on top of a campaign launched several
months ago with a different motto: "Nobody can help Russia, except the
Russians themselves."

Both contrasted sharply with the campaign of threats and intimidation launched
last summer, which led western firms to complain bitterly about the muscular
tactics employed by the tax police to collect revenues, including snap raids
by masked men armed with baseball bats and assault rifles.

Russia is desperate to boost its notoriously low tax collection to help plug
gaps in this year's budget. Ministers openly admit Moscow cannot hope to pay
loans of 17.5 billion dollars (15.9 billion euros) which mature this year.

The government is currently seeking to secure a bailout from the International
Monetary Fund, to whom it owes 4.5 billion this year, which has frozen loan
payments since the August 17 financial crisis erupted.

The state is also well behind in payments to public sector workers who
regularly go months or even years without salaries being paid.

Last month, taxes collected amounted to 15.6 billion rubles (678 million
dollars), some 12 percent lower than forecasts.

Chronic central government cash shortages have sparked a collapse in public
services: the public health system, state education, poor road and rail
networks, and the state pension -- even when it is paid -- is largely
insufficient to meet basic needs. 

*******

#9
Moscow Times
March 16, 1999 
Yavlinsky's Turn at Bat 
By Peter D. Ekman
Peter D. Ekman is professor of finance at the American Institute of
Business and Economics in Moscow. He contributed this comment to The Moscow
Times. 

First Deputy Prime Minister Yury Maslyukov is about to be thrown out of
the Cabinet. He's staked his career on getting a loan for Russia from the
IMF, and it's clear that he won't be able to get it. As the default time
bomb ticked down last week, Maslyukov was sent to Indonesia. The reason is
clear. He has a better chance of securing a multi-billion dollar loan from
financially struggling Indonesia than from the IMF. 

The desperation of the government for the IMF loan has been shown by its
incessant predictions of a forthcoming agreement, and by hasty changes in
Russian negotiators. Last weekend former Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin
- the second worst possible loan negotiator - returned from talks with the
IMF in Washington and said the Cabinet needed greater economic expertise.
In other words, Maslyukov will be pitched and a Western-oriented "liberal
economist" will have to be installed in his place, if only for show. 

Don't think for a second that this means that former Deputy Prime Minister
Anatoly Chubais or former prime ministers Yegor Gaidar or Sergei Kiriyenko
will re-enter the Cabinet. They have even less credibility now in the West
than they do in Russia. There are a few other old warhorses that don't
quite fit the bill: former Cabinet ministers Yevgeny Yasin, Alexander
Livshits, and Alexander Shokin. Former Finance Minister Boris Fyodorov
would probably satisfy the IMF, but is unacceptable to the government. 

Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov was very direct in naming the leader of the
Yabloko party, Grigory Yavlinsky, as the leading contender for the job.
Yavlinsky's appointment is by no means a done deal. He may even have
already turned down the appointment because he is unsure whether he'll have
enough power to effectively govern the country. He would reject the first
deputy prime minister's chair if he's appointed just as a showpiece to
satisfy the IMF. Nevertheless, faced with the alternative of a complete
default, Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov and President Boris Yeltsin will
probably promise Yavlinsky just enough power to get him to accept the
position. 

Yavlinsky's power will not be based solely on the promises of Primakov and
Yeltsin. Yabloko has the support of between 10 percent and 15 percent of
the Russian population, with few people intensely disliking its positions.
Yabloko's support will greatly increase once the party attains a position
of power. Luzhkov, Yavlinsky's apparent ally, has the support of an
additional 10 percent to 15 percent. Between them, they control the only
active political factions other than the Communist Party and the supporters
of the do-nothing Primakov. 

Yavlinsky would be a wonderful choice to run the economy. He's a
professional economist who designed the famous - but never implemented -
"500-day plan" for economic reform under Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev.
Since that time, he's led Russia's only truly democratic and
reform-oriented party. He's turned down several chances to join the
government while other so-called democrats and reformers were using their
posts to plunder the Russian economy. Indeed, Yavlinsky has made a point of
exposing corruption in the government. 

The only complaints about Yavlinsky have been that he's too idealistic and
too reluctant to compromise to have a positive effect on government. I
consider these points, however, to have been his greatest strengths.
Compromise with the pirates who've been running the Russian economy would
have been the kiss of political death, as Kiriyenko found out. Too
idealistic to serve in the Russian government? - that phrase would have
covered anybody who had even a single scruple - but all things must
eventually change. 

Yavlinsky represents everything that the current and former governments do
not: idealism, democracy, a sensible economic policy, and the fight against
corruption. 

Several obstacles beyond the simple enormity of Russia's economic problems
will face Yavlinsky if he attempts to govern. The Communist Party will
likely stop just short of armed insurrection to protest Maslyukov's
removal. They will be able to block any legislation that Yavlinsky submits
to the State Duma. As a democrat, Yavlinsky's principles and political
skills will be sorely tested by his relations with the Duma. His political
skills are somewhat suspect since he's never held a national political
office. Compromise will now be a requirement, not a sign of weakness. 

The upcoming Duma and presidential elections will greatly complicate
matters. Corruption allegations will be seen by many as purely political
maneuvers. Primakov and Luzhkov may jockey for position as potential
political allies, or they may turn on Yavlinsky for political gain.
Nevertheless, if Yavlinsky survives his first three months in office, he
will almost surely emerge as the front-runner in the presidential race. 

Leaders of Gazprom, oil firms, and bankrupt industrialists and bankers
will fiercely oppose Yavlinsky, because any sensible programs on the
economy will limit their abuse of power. 

But perhaps the most dangerous opposition will come from Yeltsin. In the
near term Yeltsin will likely support personnel changes that will help
Yavlinsky, in order to balance opposing political forces. In the long term,
however, moves to balance power will result in halfway measures on the
economy. Halfway measures simply will not work now. 

Yavlinsky will, I believe, be appointed to and accept the position of
first deputy prime minister in charge of the economy. He'll have a tough
row to hoe. Designing an economic policy will be the simplest task that
he'll need to accomplish. If he manages to get the enthusiastic support of
the Russian people, he will successfully change the face of Russian
politics and economics. But, without the people's support to counter
opposition from his political enemies, complete economic and political
failure are possible. 

*******

#10
New York Times
16 March 1999
[for personal use only]
Thomas L. Friedman: The Doomsday A-List
FOREIGN AFFAIRS / By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

TOKYO -- I don't know about you, but I slept particularly well last
Friday night, knowing that Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic had just
joined NATO. What? You say you were too disturbed by the reports of the
Clinton team's lackadaisical response to potential Chinese pilfering of
U.S. nuclear secrets to sleep well? You say you had insomnia over the fact
that our nuclear arms control regime with Russia is crumbling? 

Well, to you I say, "Don't worry, be happy." I read in my own newspaper
that the Clintonites are planning to bring Slovenia into NATO next, and if
that doesn't make you sleep better, I can't help you. You must be one of
those nuts who still think that the most important strategic issue facing
the U.S. is all the nuclear weapons pointed at us from Russia. 

Well, if you are one of those nuts, you are going to have to look outside
the Administration for therapy. While everyone is yapping about whether
China stole some nuclear secrets, the fact is China has 24 long-range
warheads capable, at best, of hitting California. Folks, Russia still has
7,000 such warheads, and Russia is falling apart. And because the Clinton
Administration made NATO expansion its priority, rather than getting the
Start 2 nuclear missile reduction treaty with Russia implemented -- which
would eliminate 3,000 long-range Russian nuclear weapons -- the whole arms
control agenda is now drifting aimlessly. 

Fact: The Clintonites, and Congress, including the Republicans, have been
grossly negligent in dealing with America's nuclear arms reduction agenda,
particularly with Russia. 

But don't listen to me. Read the most important book by any ex-Clinton
official, which also came out last week but was totally overlooked. The
book is by former Defense Secretary William Perry and his top arms control
aide, Ashton Carter, and is called "Preventive Defense." Mr. Perry and Mr.
Carter reveal that when they were running the Pentagon they argued to Mr.
Clinton that NATO expansion "should be deferred until later in the decade."
Mr. Perry details how he insisted at a top-level meeting with the
President, on Dec. 21, 1994, that "early expansion was a mistake," because
it would provoke "distrust" in Russia and undermine cooperation on arms
control and other issues, and because "prematurely adding untried
militaries" at a time when NATO itself was reassessing its role would not
be helpful. Mr. Perry was overruled, in my view because of the Clintonites'
zeal for Polish votes. 

But this is a book about the future. The authors argue that there are
three sorts of security problems America now faces: There is the "C-list"
-- Kosovo, Haiti and Bosnia. They dominate the headlines, require
diplomatic energy to solve, carry regional importance, but in no way
threaten our vital interests. Then there are the "B-list" issues. These are
major theaters of war -- Iraq and the Korean Peninsula -- where we have
major interests and resources at stake, but where there is still no
immediate, cold-war-like threat to America's way of life. 

Finally, there is the "A-list." These are the strategic nuclear threats
that can destroy our way of life. For the past 10 years, the immediacy of
these threats has been overshadowed by the B- and C-lists. But the A-list
threats must be reasserted as a priority. 

We not only need to get the Start 2 treaty implemented and a Start 3
negotiated -- at a time when the Russians are ready for radical reductions
in nukes -- but, says Mr. Carter, we have to start thinking creatively
about reducing Russia's 30,000 potentially loose nukes, that is, all its
short-range nuclear warheads and fissile cores, which could easily fall off
the back of a truck. 

"An arms control or elimination program that would address short- range
weapons would require a level of transparency and cooperation that we could
not get in the cold war but might be able to get to now -- that is what we
mean by preventive defense," Mr. Carter told me. 

Mr. Perry made Russian denuclearization his top priority when he was
Defense Secretary, but since he left that focus has been lost in both the
Administration and Congress. 

"I'm sure that our successors believe in the things we were trying to do
and support them," Mr. Perry said to me. "But believing and supporting them
are not the same as getting them done." 

*******

#11
More Jews leave Russia amid crisis, anti-Semitism

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The number of Jews leaving Russia has risen because of
deepening national economic problems and rising anti-Semitism, a Jewish
official said Monday. 

Alla Levi, who runs an agency that helps Jews emigrating to Israel, said 3,300
Jews had left Russia for Israel in the first two months of 1999 compared with
1,600 in the same period last year. 

She said that before the latest financial crisis broke in Russia last August,
the number of Jews leaving for Israel had been in decline. 

``People are leaving because they see no future for themselves in Russia. Many
have lost their jobs or have not received their salary for many months,'' she
told Reuters. 

``Since last November people have also been citing the growing anti-Semitism
as a reason. It frightens them and makes them fear for their children's
future,'' Levi added. 

Communist lawmakers Albert Makashov and Viktor Ilyukhin have made openly anti-
Semitic remarks in recent months but the State Duma, the lower house of
parliament, has failed to censure them. A synagogue was vandalized this month
in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk. 

Moscow's chief rabbi, Adolf Shayevich, blamed official failure to take
stronger action against anti-Semitism for the new exodus. 

``The Jews here are not concerned so much by what Makashov says as by the limp
reaction of society and the inaction of the authorities,'' he told Reuters. 

``If Makashov can voice his opinions with such impunity, it is hardly
surprising if young thugs feel free to throw Molotov cocktails at
synagogues,'' Shayevich added. He also confirmed the departure of Jews from
Russia had accelerated in recent months. 

President Boris Yeltsin has vowed to crack down on anti-Semitism and other
forms of political extremism, but the Jews have for centuries been a
convenient scapegoat in Russia during times of hardship. 

Levi said she expected more Jews to seek advice from her agency emigrating to
Israel, adding that the number of people enrolling for Hebrew classes
nationwide had doubled to 10,000 in recent months. 

*******

#12
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 
From: David M Rowell <david@anzac.com>
Subject: A different perspective on Sexual Harrassment

It is very difficult for some subjects to be perceived clearly, and our
own personal "viewpoint filters" many times cause us to see what we wish
to see. The renewed debate on sexual harrassment is a clear case in
point.

Rather than allow my own prejudices to intrude on a series of didactic
statements, I'd like to just ask a couple of rhetorical questions of Mr
Varoli, Ms Dent and Mr White.

First, Ms Dent tells us how she is "constantly amazed at the beautiful
and intelligent young women who show up at functions on the arms of
nice, but quite average, middle-aged Western businessmen". So what. 
Please tell us, Ms Dent, how many of those same women seemed to be
coerced into attending - how many looked unhappy at participating in a
lifestyle closed to most of their kin? How many of them looked unhappy
at wearing clothes that would cost an ordinary Russian a year's salary? 
Indeed, have you surveyed such women to find out how many of them also
work with/for their date? It is very hard to establish exactly who is
using who in such situations, and probably the arrangement, spoken or
unspoken - but always freely entered into - is fair and acceptable to
both the man and the woman. As our Moscow friends at the eXile will
surely confirm, a foreign "businessman" looking for Russian women, has
an extraordinary wealth of choices and it isn't necessary to limit
oneself to the more complicated scenarios within one's office.

Secondly, Mr White tells us how - in his experience - attractive women
have a personal protection arrangement with a "roof" or krisha - polite
ways of describing the Russian "mafia". It is quite likely that the
impressive people Mr White mixes with do indeed pay protection money. 
But perhaps he could tell us how an attractive 19 yr old can manage to
pay protection money to the local mafia on her $50/month salary working
at Gostiny Dvor? Of course, the local mafioso is probably willing to
accept payment "in kind", but - whoops - doesn't then the solution
become as bad as the problem? In my own different experiences, average
Russian people avoid all possible involvement with the local mafias,
because, as they repeatedly tell me, once you get involved with them,
they never go away. None of the ordinary Russians I know admit to any
dealings with a krisha at all - yes, the mafia does exist, and is
pervasive in society, but only at certain levels and certain situations.

Thirdly, perhaps Mr White could tell us what he thinks the help wanted
advertisements mean when they state in them that they are seeking to
employ a young attractive woman "without complexes"? Most other people
understand this phrase to be an allusion to the fact that the employer
expects the woman to sleep with him, and the phrase can be seen used in
regular help wanted ads in regular newspapers in St Petersburg. I'm
sure that the government officials that Mr White meets like to pretend
that such problems don't exist, but he would be well advised to evaluate
his own version of reality instead of taking everything that public
officials tell him at face value.

In my own limited experience, by far the largest part of the problem of
sexual harrassment in Russia is between Russian men and the women that
work for them, not between foreign men and the women that work for
them. Whether "Euro-standard" or "US-standard", there is no doubt that
most foreign companies have higher ethical standards than most Russian
companies, and whereas - to use Ms Dent's turn of phrase - an average,
middle-aged Russian businessman probably can only manage to impose his
charms on his employees, an average, middle-aged Western businessmen has
much wider choices.

Let's have less of the "mea culpa" from the expats and let's fairly call
the problem what it is - a definite problem, yes, but primarily a
Russian problem, albeit with a few foreign opportunists participating as
well. Which brings me to my last question, this one for Mr Varoli (and
I also enjoy being married to an assertive Russian woman, but I'm not
sure what the relevance of this is for him or me) - can he tell us why
he chose to write about this problem from the perspective of foreigners
imposing themselves on their employees, when, as he should know from his
three years experience as a social worker, the problem is one hundred
times or more greater amongst Russians than between foreigners and
Russians?

*******

#13
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 
From: "T. S. White" <tswrace@ibm.net> 
Subject: Sexual harassment fact opposes truth: response to Varoli and
Dent

I would like to thank Mr. Varoli for his comment acknowledging my
defense of the Russian Culture. This indicates that at least he
began to grasp my point. Unfortunately I cannot say the same for
Ms. Dent.

The subject of sexual harassment provokes emotional responses from
most people and I think that is what is fueling the discussion
here. The subject is of such a sensitive nature that only the
exposure of pertinent facts can justly guide one's progress
through it. When I speak of facts I refer to documented facts and
not the personal opinions that Mr. Varoli thinks constitute truth.

Mr. Varoli asserts that freedom from sexual harassment is a basic
human right. This he considers truth because of his opinion on
the subject. The fact is that freedom from sexual harassment, for
either gender, is not a basic human right. Basic human rights are
defined by The Universal Declaration of Human Rights of the United
nations, as supported by Amnesty International. There is no
specific reference to sexual harassment toward either gender in
this document. However, as a part of the United Nations
Declaration, the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of
Discrimination Against Women requires member states in Part I
Article 2:

> a) To embody the principle of the equality of men and women in their
national constitutions or
> other appropriate legislation if not yet incorporated therein and to
ensure, through law and
> other appropriate means, the practical realization of this principle;
> b) To adopt appropriate legislative and other measures, including
sanctions where appropriate,
> prohibiting all discrimination against women;
> c) To establish legal protection of the rights of women on an equal basis
with men and to ensure
> through competent national tribunals and other public institutions the
effective protection of
> women against any act of discrimination;

This article of the declaration establishes sexual harassment, by
definition, as a civil right to be legislated. That is what
sexual harassment is in the United States; a civil right. It came
into existence in the Civil Rights Act of 1964 as an Amendment to
the United States Constitution. The aforementioned not
withstanding it is not my intent here to disagree with Mr.
Varoli's opinion. I only wish to illuminate the facts that seem
to undermine his opinion as the truth he covets so dearly..

Both Mr. Varoli and Ms. Dent seem of unified opinion that the
Russians need to heed the United States record on sexual
harassment as a proper example. They would both assert that
western executives are taking liberties with Russian women
employees that they would not attempt in the United States. Ms.
Dent does contend that Russian executives are more open about
their actions. In support of Mr. Varoli's basically flawed
example of "Tanya", Ms. Dent recounts a meeting she chaired where
three of seven women reported sexual harassment.

So if the United States is to be held out as the proper example
for Russian Culture to follow on the subject lets look at a few
facts. The first research on the subject was done by Redbook
Magazine in 1976. In this voluntary submission survey nine out of
ten women respondents reported sexual harassment in the
workplace. It must be observed that since this survey was not
scientifically administered the results are necessarily flawed.

In the 1987 Merit Systems Protection Board Report, a survey
administered by the U.S. Federal Government, a figure of
seventy-seven percent of the responding women reported workplace
sexual harassment. Between both men and women respondent only
five percent took any formal action.

In the New York Task Force Report of December 1993 a landmark 1985
study is cited as follows:

> Dr. Barbara Gutek, in her landmark 1985 study, Sex and the Workplace,
> found that approximately half of the civilian women workers polled in
> random telephone interviews had experienced sexual harassment. (7) The
> incidents of harassment reported included degrading, insulting >comments
(15%), sexual touching (24%), socializing expected as part of >the job
requirement (11%), and expected sexual activity (8%). None of >those who
had been harassed sought legal recourse and only 22% told >anyone else
about the incident.

The report continues citing:

>Sexual harassment even occurs in religious institutions. The United
>Methodist Church found that 77% of its clergy women had experienced
>incidents of sexual harassment; 41% named a pastor or colleague as the
>perpetrator, and 31% mentioned church social functions as the setting.

The New York Task Force concludes that sexual harassment pervades
the American working environment.

To reinforce the New York observations I will quote <Exacerbating
the Exasperated: Title VII Liability of Employers for Sexual
Harassment Committed by their Supervisors, 81 Cornell Law Review>
stating, "Between 40 to 90 % of women in the United States have
been victims of some form of sexual harassment on the job."

Now if one can accept Ms. Dent's example, where three out of seven
employees were sexually harassed, then, considering the above
reports on the state of sexual harassment in the American
workplace, Russia is already demonstrating better conduct. The
fact is that the American record on sexual harassment is
horrendous. It is only because Mr. Varoli and Ms. Dent are basing
their statements on unfounded opinions that they believe Russia
should mimic the U.S. example.

I would also congratulate Mr. Varoli on his taste in women. The
fact that he is married to a Russian woman executive belies the
fact that he does have some good common sense. The case he makes
for decrying the state of sexual harassment in Russia does not
belie his stated experience in the social services. A trained
social scientist is familiar with techniques of sampling and
surveying that eliminate bias from observations of the sample
population. Unfortunately Mr. Varoli's article is devoid of any
remnant that would suggest such investigative techniques. He
quotes a sample group of three; all of whom have stated biases. 
In this respect his article is nothing more than a platform from
which he flaunts his personal opinions, unsupported by any
apparent research or scientific discipline.

It is sad that Ms. Dent could not see through her veil of anger
well enough to seize on the same point Mr. Varoli did while
reading my response. The point is simply that Russia is a unique
culture that is older, more complex, more sophisticated, and more
resilient than the fledgling American culture. It will find it's
own answers to sexual harassment and the other problems westerners
have thrust upon it in the last ten years. If it follows the
American example, as it attempted to do with it's economics, the
likely result will be social chaos. If there is anything Russia
does not need it is the chiding of self righteous Americans. 
Perhaps if we spend more time listening to the Russians, instead
of telling them how to operate their society, we may learn how we
may become of real service to them. 

********