February 21, 1999    
This Date's Issues: 3063• • 

Johnson's Russia List
#3063
21 February 1999
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
My mistake: There was no 3061.
1. Reuters: Primakov says Russia needs constitutional change.
2. Reuters: U.S., Russia ponder nuke danger of Y2K.
3. Juliette Engel: Re 3062-"Children Left To Die."
4. Interfax: Poll Shows Support for Fatherland, Yabloko Increases.
5. Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Text of Primakov Remarks on Terrorism.
6. Itar-Tass: Russian Minister Reports on '98 Infectious Disease.
7. AFP: Yeltsin could be ousted this year: Zyuganov.
8. Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Gromov on Afghan War Failures.
9. Moskovskiy Komsomolets: Lev Sigal,"Leap From the Swamp; Will 
Lebed Once Again Become Yeltsin's 'Successor'?"
10. Washington Post: Walter Pincus, Russian Military Decay Detailed.
11. Boston Glove: Sam Allis, Who really lost Russia? 
12. AFP: Russia's elite flock to premiere of latest Mikhalkov film.
13. Los Angeles Times: David Holley, NATO's New Members Will Want
Allies to Hold the Line.]

*******

#1
Primakov says Russia needs constitutional change
By Konstantin Trifonov

ST PETERSBURG, Russia, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov said
on Sunday that Russia's post-Soviet constitution should be amended to improve
the effectiveness of government but ruled out any immediate changes. 
``This year such changes are hardly likely because this is a difficult year,
an election year...but next year, clearly, we will have to introduce some
constitutional changes,'' he said. 
Russians elect a new State Duma, or lower house of parliament, later this
year
and are due to choose a new president in the summer of 2000. 
Primakov told reporters in Russia's second city of St Petersburg that one
possible change would involve regional governors being appointed by the
president. 
``At present governors are chosen directly by the people and it is
impossible
to exert influence over a governor,'' he said. 
The 69-year-old prime minister, who is himself viewed as a strong potential
candidate in the next presidential election, is keen to restore some degree of
central control over regional leaders to prevent the vast country splintering
into rival fiefdoms. 
President Boris Yeltsin, who has said he will not seek another term of
office,
strongly opposes any constitutional changes that might water down his
extensive powers. 
But, in a gesture of good will to Primakov and his team at a time of
economic
crisis, Yeltsin has agreed in principle not to sack the government without
first consulting it. 
Primakov was speaking on Sunday ahead of talks with visiting Finnish Prime
Minister Paavo Lipponen. He was also expected to attend a meeting of the
``North West'' economic forum grouping senior officials from St Petersburg and
the surrounding region. 
Officials like Vladimir Yakovlev, governor of St Petersburg, want to attract
more investment from neighbouring Finland, which holds the rotating presidency
of the European Union in the second half of 1999. 
Primakov also expressed optimism on Sunday about the course of Russia's
negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 
``We believe they will eventually be successful...The negotiations have not
stopped, the process goes on,'' he said. 
The IMF halted a multi-billion-dollar credit programme for Russia after last
year's financial crisis torpedoed the country's economic policies underpinning
the loans. 
Primakov's government, which came to power in the aftermath of the
crisis, is
seeking fresh IMF credits to help repay loans to the Fund itself and
restructure debts to other creditors. 

*******

#2
INTERVIEW-U.S., Russia ponder nuke danger of Y2K
By Adam Tanner

MOSCOW, Feb 21 (Reuters) - The United States has offered to set up a missile
early-warning centre with Russia from December 1999 to reduce the risk of
accidental war stemming from the millennium bug, a senior U.S. defence
official said on Sunday. 
Edward Warner, U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defence for Strategy and Threat
Reduction, outlined the suggestion in two days of military talks that ended on
Friday on how the millennium computer bug might affect Russia's nuclear
arsenal. 
Experts have expressed fear that the millennium bug, or Y2K problem,
caused by
outdated computer software that may mistake the year 2000 for 1900 could cause
Russian radars to believe mistakenly that an attack was under way. 
``One of the possibilities that we are discussing and will discuss
further is
the possibility of a jointly manned centre with early-warning information
available to provide an additional buffer against that problem,'' Warner told
Reuters. 
``One of the components of our proposal is the specific area of some sharing
of early-warning data at the time of the transition, that is, the time of late
December moving onto January of the year 2000.'' 
Warner led a U.S. delegation of the Defence Consultative Group of U.S. and
Russian military officials. The Y2K problem was one of several issues
considered in the talks. 
Russia has begun to acknowledge that its military may be affected by the
millennium bug, but it is unclear where the cash-strapped country would get
the funds it would need to tackle it, or how it could do so in only 10 months'
time. 
``There is a problem and we are dealing with it,'' said a spokesman for
Russia's Strategic Rocket Forces. 
Warner said U.S. and Russian military officials had agreed to meet again in
March to come up with a detailed programme to combat the millennium bug. But
he downplayed the threat of accidental nuclear war from Y2K woes. 
``I'm not of the opinion either on a day-to-day routine basis today or
even at
the time of Y2K that there is a high danger of the launch-on-false-warning
kind of problem,'' Warner, an expert on the Russian military, said in the
interview. 
``Their system has long had multiple layers of command and control and
authorisation. It would still have all those areas, making the probability of
accidental and unauthorised launch (low),'' he said. 
``Nevertheless we certainly want to encourage them to look with particular
care at systems in that area, because one wants both sides to continue to have
effective systems they have confidence in.'' 
The defence official said the United States would like to set up a joint
early-warning system with Russia on a permanent basis, but was ready to set up
a temporary facility if no permanent agreement was reached before the end of
the year. 
Warner will also take part in talks on a wide range of defence and arms-
control themes on Monday and Tuesday led by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State
Strobe Talbott. 
One of the most controversial topics is a growing U.S. interest in altering
the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty which limits Russia and the United
States to a single ABM site against nuclear attack. Warner said the U.S. would
not decide whether to deploy a new ABM system until June 2000 at earliest. 
Sergei Rogov, head of Russia's independent USA and Canada Institute think
tank, suggests in the latest edition of a Russian military newspaper that
Russia should be prepared to renegotiate the ABM treaty and to go beyond it
with a far broader deal that covers all areas of strategic stability. 

*******

#3
From: MiraMedUSA@aol.com (Juliette Engel) 
Date: Sun, 21 Feb 1999
Subject: Re: 3062-"Children Left To Die"

We are so sick of these horror stories about the 600,000 Russian orphans who
are either "beaten and tortured" (Human Rights Watch) or "left to die." We
have been working on the ground with Russian orphanages for 5 years and also
work directly with the Russian Orphanage Association, which works with about
80 baby orphanages. All over the world, including the US, you can find
children being beaten and tortured and of kids in the US and left to die. And
these kind of abuses should be exposed. But what about the tens of thousands
of Russian orphanage workers who show up for work and love and care for these
kids without getting paid for 6 months or more and the hundreds of thousands
of kids who are NOT being beaten or left to die--but need help? Where is the
press coverage, the editorials, the voices for change on these issues? Keeping
pressure on the government NOT to continue to cut services (food, etc.) to
these orphanages; making it easier to send humanitarian aid and working to
make sure when these kids are turned out at 17 they are educated and trained
enough to get a decent job instead of being the number one source of recruits
for the mafia and sex traffickers is the real work that needs doing--but this
is too dull for the media. The so-called "extensive report" that Human Rights
Watch did is a disgrace. They spent less than 30 days in Russia, spoke to
less than 25 people, visited 15 or so orphanages in one small area of this
enormous country and published a 200 plus page tirade that got enormous press
coverage but didn't help improve humanitarian aid delivery, pay workers or
increase orphanage budgets that have been slashed 30% this year. Things ARE
very tough in Russia for kids--there's a million of them on the streets and
600,000 in institutions. But sensationalist reporting too often just cause a
knee-jerk reaction--like Americans sending checks to these orphanages (which
of course cannot be cashed since there are no banks to cash them!). What is
needed is a lot more thoughtful reporting and 
information about what can be done to improve the situation. For more
information, please contact MiraMed Institute. 

*******

#4
Poll Shows Support for Fatherland, Yabloko Increases 

MOSCOW, Feb 18 (Interfax) -- The percentage of supporters of Moscow 
Mayor Yuriy Luzhkov's Fatherland movement grew from 9% in November to 15%
in January, 
according to an opinion poll of 1,500 Russians conducted by the Public
Opinion Fund. The 
Communist Party of Russia's (KPRF) popularity edged down from 23% in
November to 22% in 
January, though it remains the single most popular political party in
Russia. The Yabloko 
party led by Grigoriy Yavlinskiy scored 15% in January, up from 13% three
months ago. Support 
for the Popular Republican Party formed by Krasnoyarsk Governor Aleksander
Lebed dropped 
from 11% in November to 7% in January. The popularity of the Liberal
Democratic Party of Russia 
(LDPR) led by Vladimir Zhirinovsky was 4% and 5% respectively.

*******

#5
Text of Primakov Remarks on Terrorism 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta
18 February 1999
[translation for personal use only]
Unattributed account of speech by Russian Prime Minister Yevgeniy Primakov
at 16 February 
session of Interdepartmental Antiterrorist Commission under "Official
Viewpoint" 
rubric: "Terrorism Will Not Succeed if Law Stands in Its Way. Premier
Yevgeniy Primakov Is 
Convinced of This and Spoke About It in His Speech at Session of
Interdepartmental 
Antiterrorist Commission" -- words between slantlines published in boldface 

You and I have gathered during what is a difficult period for the state 
in order to solve difficult problems. Time dictates that the struggle
against terrorism is 
one of our priorities. 
Criminal elements are not letting up in their activities aimed at
penetrating organs of state 
power and applying pressure on functionaries at different levels. They are
using /any 
methods, including terrorism/ to achieve their aims. 
It is superfluous to speak about the exceptional danger, inhumanity, and
barbarity of 
terrorism no matter from where it originates; it is also superfluous to
mention 
/responsibility/ for safeguarding the security of the state and our
citizens -- /this is one 
more common duty of ours and an absolute priority./ 
In order to effectively combat terrorism in all its manifestations it is
necessary to 
combine the efforts of all the organs of state power that are participating
in the struggle 
against it and to create a nationwide system of antiterrorist activity.
This system should 
encompass all regions and ensure a timely response to terrorist
manifestations in any part of 
the country. We must focus our attention on preventive work and on ensuring
that terrorist 
manifestations are identified and prevented /at their earliest possible
stage./ The 
activities of antiterrorist commissions in Federation components acquire
particular 
significance here. In order to form them as quickly as possible it is
necessary to plan and hold 
a conference of heads of the Russian Federation components, using a
Federation Council 
session for this purpose. This conference must discuss issues concerning
the organization 
of antiterrorist activities at the local level and determine a comnmon
procedure for 
collaboration between the federal and regional commissions. 
No one has any doubts about the importance of all this work. We have the
relevant 
instructions from the president and his direct orders. We are acting on the
authorization of 
and in accordance with the president's will. There are also laws about this. 
How are they being implemented? 
A commission has been created, and it is meant to continue the work begun
back in 1997 by the 
Interdepartmental Antiterrorist Commission. The majority of those present
belonged to it 
and already have some experience of working in this sphere. /This enables
the Commission to 
get down to practical work immediately,/ particularly as /we have no time
to waste./ I demand 
that effective steps be undertaken to improve the effectiveness of the
struggle against 
terrorism. 
The Commission is meant to come up with comprehensive measures against
this most dangerous 
evil. There is one /criterion/ for assessing all our actions: /The actual
level of security of 
the individual, society, and the state/ and the degree to which Russians
are protected from 
criminal infringements. The /stake/ here is the highest possible -- /the
life and health of 
our people./ Hence the highest demands are made of all federal organs of
power without 
exception to implement Russian Federation legislation on the struggle
against terrorism. 
Our common and your direct task is to achieve this in practice. The
Commission has sufficient 
powers and rights to do this. 
/By taking all the necessary measures,/ I personally and the Commission
for its part will 
/help/ the Commission to accomplish its activities. We realize that,
without the proper 
financial provision, all the planned measures to improve the system of
combating terrorism 
will simply remain on paper and will not bring any real results. Unless
they are provided with 
the proper material and technical equipment, Russian Federal Security
Service and Ministry 
of Internal Affairs subunits that are waging the struggle against terrorism
will not be able 
to respond appropriately to terrorist manifestations, whose organizers are
using the 
latest types of weapons and equipment. Of course, owing to the serious
economic situation in 
the country, even the government has extremely limited financial resources,
but, in view of 
the importance of the issue, I am sure that /the necessary funds will be
found and allocated./ 
But, in the future, funding for the struggle against terrorism has to be
provided for by a 
separate item in the federal budget, beginning in 2000. 
I am not warning you, but I am confirming that I will be asking
questions. The country's 
leadership views /even the slightest underestimation of the acuteness/ and
statewide 
importance of the problem of the struggle against the spread of terrorism
in Russia to be 
/absolutely intolerable./ 
Every one of the ministries and departments represented in the Commission
is obliged to make 
its contribution to the struggle against terrorism in Russia and to the
elaboration of an 
ideology pertaining to this struggle and its strategy and tactics. 
Every one of the leaders who are members of the Commission and who have
sufficient experience 
and powers has substantial forces and funds at his disposal. 
We also have the relevant international ties, which have to be used
competently, 
intensively, and more effectively. 
By using existing forces and funds rationally we can firmly expect to
jointly stamp out the 
terrorist threat and to create a reliable system for protecting the state,
society, and 
Russian citizens from terrorist infringements. 
The president has instructed me, as government leader, to personally
report on the state of 
affairs pertaining to these issues, which I will do. 

******

#6
Russian Minister Reports on '98 Infectious Disease 

Moscow, 17 Feb (ITAR-TASS) -- The favorable trends of a decline in the 
death rate and an increase in the birth rate continued in Russia in 1998.
The death rate 
decreased for virtually all classes and causes of illnesses. This was
reported at a news 
conference today by Russian Health Minister Vladimir Starodubov. 
At the same time, the situation with regard to levels of infectious
illnesses among the 
population remains difficult. Last year, compared with 1997, there was an
increase of 72 
percent in the number of victims of epidemic paratyphoid, an increase of 60
percent in the 
numbers suffering from whooping cough, and an increase of 127 percent in
measles cases. 
Specialists are particularly worried by the difficult epidemiological
situation with 
regard to what are known as the socially determined illnesses. In the first
ten months of 1998 
about 100,000 new cases of tuberculosis were recorded, which is 7 percent
more than in the same 
period of 1997. 
The Russian Health Ministry has announced a tender for the supply of
antituberculosis and 
insulin medicines for Russians and also for the supply of X-ray equipment
to medical 
establishments within the antituberculosis program. 
There has been a sharp deterioration in the HIV infection situation.
Between March 1987, when 
the first AIDS victim appeared in Russia, and the present day, about 10,000
Russians have been 
registered as infected with HIV. In recent years 90 per cent of HIV cases
have occurred amongst 
drug-abusers. 
Speaking of the state of the health system, itself, the minister noted
that it is suffering a 
number of difficulties. The existing health system facilities are used very
inefficiently. 
Last year 1.6 million hospital beds were in use for less than one month.
In a number of 
constituent parts of the Russian Federation there is an alarming trend
toward reducing the 
number of out-patient clinics. 
In 1998 there was continuing tension in the health sector connected with
wage arrears. 
These arrears have now been reduced somewhat and amount to 3.4 billion
rubles. Vladimir 
Starodubov stressed that the situation with regard to the payment of wages
varies greatly 
between regions. Thus, in the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg and in
Orel Region and in the 
Taymyr and Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Areas medical workers are not
experiencing any wage 
arrears. However, in Magadan, Chita Region, and the central area of Russia
and on Kamchatka 
arrears go back 6-8 months. 

******

#7
Yeltsin could be ousted this year: Zyuganov

MOSCOW, Feb 21 (AFP) - Russian President Boris Yeltsin could be ousted by the
end of the year as parliament nearing the two-thirds majority needed to launch
an impeachment process, Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov said Sunday. 
Addressing thousands of Communists who had marched through central Moscow to
mark Russia's traditional army day, Zyuganov repeated his accusations that the
ailing Yeltsin was unfit for office, calling him "a bungling person who is not
capable of answering for his words or deeds."
Zyuganov said the impeachment bid was gathering pace, with 257 deputies
in the
450-seat State Duma lower house of parliament already supporting the process,
Interfax reported. This would mean that another 43 deputies are needed to
launch the bid in a vote due next month.
"We are very close to getting Yeltsin's impeachment backed by the upper
house," Zyuganov said. "If the lower house and the people show greater
initiative, the impeachment procedure will be completed this year."
Zyuganov has stepped up his anti-Yeltsin rhetoric in recent weeks as
parliament's impeachment process gathers pace, accusing the president
repeatedly of being an alcoholic.
The Communist leader said he was confident that the Duma would uphold at
least
two of the five charges laid at Yeltsin's door -- those of ordering a 1993
armed assault on the Soviet-era parliament and launching the 1994-96 war in
Chechnya.
Analysts say however that the impeachment process is heavily stacked in the
president's favour, and remain sceptical that the Duma will be able to muster
the necessary two-thirds majority to launch a protracted impeachment process.
Nonetheless, a vote is expected in parliament sometime in March on the five
impeachment motions, which also accuse Yeltsin of dissolving the Soviet Union
and the "genocide" of the Russian people.
The fifth indictment charges Yeltsin with allowing the disintegration of the
armed forces, a 'crime' which struck a chord with those marching to mark the
former Soviet Army Day, now renamed the Day of the Defenders of the
Fatherland.
An estimated 10,000 mostly elderly leftists brandishing the usual array
of red
flags, Stalin portraits and Soviet paraphernalia, listened as Zyuganov
inveighed against the "criminal activities of Yeltsin.
"After seven years of democratic intoxication, almost everyone feels and
understands that the country is being run by a bungling person who is not
capable of answering for his words or deeds," Zyuganov told the crowd. 

******

#8
Gromov on Afghan War Failures 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta
13 February 1999
[translation for personal use only]
Interview with Colonel General Boris Gromov, Hero of the Soviet Union, by
Rossiyskaya Gazeta 
correspondent Andrey Maksimov on occasion of tenth anniversary of end of
Afghan War, date and 
place not specified, under rubric "Army Commander": "Our Brotherhood in 
Arms Without Borders" 

How is that war seen today, 10 years after the troop withdrawal? 
Hero of the Soviet Union Colonel General Boris Gromov answers our 
correspondent's questions. 
[RG] A column of the reconnaissance battalion of 201st Motorized 
Rifle Division crossed the state border at 10 o'clock in the morning local 
time on 15 February 1989. It appeared to be the end, but was it just a 
pause? 
[Gromov] First about the "end." Indeed, the 
reconnaissance battalion was the last Soviet subunit to leave Afghanistan. 
Even now I still remember those thoughts and feelings I experienced on the 
bridge in front of Termez. They were mixed of course. On one hand it was 
relief: the troop withdrawal was over and a burden of enormous responsibility 
fell from my shoulders. 
On the other hand, it was a bitter feeling of disappointment: we had 
achieved practically nothing in the sense of lofty "international" goals in 
nine years and two months of bloody soldier labor. It cannot be said that we 
lost the war. Had the mission of a military victory been assigned to the 
Limited Contingent, it certainly would have been executed. What the price of 
this victory would have been is another question. 
We also did not achieve results in the sphere of supreme political 
interests. The fact is, Afghanistan was (and is) of great importance to our 
state from the standpoint of strategic or, as they now say, geopolitical 
interests. But we left, leaving the country to the mercy of fate. 
Therefore we consider it our duty to help people for whose troubles our 
state is to blame. 
[RG] But who is this "We"? 
[Gromov] "We" means the All-Russian Public Movement of 
Veterans of Local Wars and Military Conflicts. We called our movement 
"Brotherhood in Arms" and officially established it a little over a year ago, 
in December 1997. We are not confined to Russia inasmuch as veterans of the 
Armed Forces of the former Soviet Union who participated in various local
wars 
and conflicts (there was a total of 26 of them) naturally live in all 
republics. We strive to be together, to solve our problems together. As a 
result, the "Brotherhood in Arms Without Borders" organization originated in 
March of last year. 
[RG] In your opinion, were the lessons of Afghanistan 
subsequently taken into account and were proper conclusions 
drawn? 
[Gromov] In my view, no. And Chechnya is the most tragic 
confirmation of that for our country. It is impossible to solve failures in 
politics by force of arms. 
[RG] On the eve of the memorable decade, what would you like to 
wish people who went through Afghanistan? 
[Gromov] The end to any war, no matter what one's attitude 
toward it is, always is a holiday for the state and for the people. Therefore 
I sincerely greet everyone who was "across the river," and not just 
servicemen, but also those who worked in Afghanistan in those years--medical 
personnel, diplomats, journalists, political advisers, builders and power 
engineers--everyone who left a good memory of themselves there. And I 
personally do not have the slightest doubt that the memory of us in 
Afghanistan basically is good. 

*******

#9
Lebed Planning Far East 'Superregion' 

Moskovskiy Komsomolets 
16 February 1999
[translation for personal use only]
Article by Lev Sigal: "Leap From the Swamp; Will Lebed Once Again Become
Yeltsin's 
'Successor'?" 


Whereas potential candidates for the presidency such as Primakov and 
Luzhkov are scoring points in the run-up to the election, Aleksandr Lebed
has recently shown 
signs of seriously flagging. Bogged down in local squabbles, he has plunged
into the 
maelstrom of Krasnoyarsk Kray. However, the general has already come up
with a cunning "plan 
B" that will get Russia talking about Lebed again: He is thinking of...
abolishing 
Krasnoyarsk Kray. 
Aleksandr Ivanovich's position could not be any worse than it is at
present. The war declared on his 
former ally, Krasnoyarsk Aluminum Plant head Anatoliy Bykov, has turned
into a war against 
virtually the entire business and political elite in the kray. Lebed
recently dismissed 
three of his deputies at the same time: Vasiliy Kuzubov, Vladimir
Ishchenko, and Sergey 
Mutovin. The fate of First Vice Governor Ovchinnikov, who is responsible
for the whole of the 
kray economy, is hanging in the balance. This means that there are hardly
any local cadres left 
in Lebed's team: They are all "legionnaires" from Moscow, Novosibirsk, and
so forth. Once 
trusted Krasnoyarsk personnel have now lost the governor's confidence,
because they have 
not been particularly zealous in the battle against "Bykov's men." 
In addition, it should be pointed out that the legislative assembly in
Krasnoyarsk Kray is 
far more influential than its counterparts in many other regions of Russia.
Under kray law the 
chief executive really can be removed from office. All that is needed is
for two-thirds of 
local legislators to be in favor. As things stand at present, the
overwhelming majority of 
deputies are against Lebed. For example, the governor's amendments to the
Law on Kray 
Government have the support of just one parliamentarian! The time factor is
the only problem: 
It is not the done thing to "impeach" a governor during his first year in
office. However, 
Aleksandr Ivanovich will have been one year in office on 2 June, so the
countdown has begun.... 
Advisers to the governor [who is also a] general have begun a brainstorming
session: Clearly, 
something extraordinary will have to be done by early summer to save Lebed.
Sponsors and 
political allies are required. There is no need to look far: The head of
government in 
neighboring Khakassia is Lebed's brother Aleksey. He has the backing of the
Sibirskiy 
Alyuminiy concern headed by Oleg Deripaska and Mikhail Chernyy, who are
rivals of 
Krasnoyarsk Aluminum Plant and Bykov. Boris Berezovskiy will not abandon
Aleksandr 
Ivanovich and his woes either, having done a great deal to promote him in
the past. According to 
some information, Berezovskiy has persistently recommended that Lebed
appoint Alfa Bank 
Board Chairman Leonard Vid as his vice governor in order to strengthen his
ties with Moscow 
financial circles. In addition, strange though it may seem, it is rumored
that Lebed and 
Berezovskiy are pinning some hopes on the Kremlin. They believe that Boris
Nikolayevich 
[Yeltsin] may once again seek a closer relationship with "mafia buster"
Lebed and even make 
him his "successor" in order to pique such powerful figures as Luzhkov and
Primakov. As we 
know, the Kremlin has already sent Lebed his first piece of help in the
form of an investigative 
operations team from the Ministry of Internal Affairs headed by Deputy
Minister Kolesnikov. 
However, if the crisis does not go away, Lebed's "nerve center" may, with
the intellectual, 
financial, and propaganda backing of Boris Berezovskiy, take steps to
initiate a highly 
unusual scenario, which until now has been treated as something of a joke.
The intention is to 
"abolish" stubborn Krasnoyarsk Kray and create in its place an enlarged
component of the 
Russian Federation, the Republic of Krasnoyarsk, which would also include
the territory of 
Khakassia, fraternal in every respect. The idea is that this initiative
will prompt a rush of 
imperial sentiment in the people of Krasnoyarsk Kray. The inhabitants of
small but proud 
Khakassia, on the other hand, can be inspired by the prospect of "leaning"
on their more 
prosperous neighbor (in Soviet times, incidentally, Khakassia was an
autonomous oblast 
within Krasnoyarsk Kray). 
If the May referendum on merging the two components has a successful
outcome, Lebed will 
dissolve the rebellious Krasnoyarsk legislative assembly and announce
elections to a joint 
legislative assembly for the superregion. After this, the most likely
development is that 
the governor general will be firmly surrounded by the Khakassia clan.
Particularly as, 
according to one of the draft plans, Lebed's administration will then move
from bustling 
Krasnoyarsk to a small, quiet town in Khakassia, Abakan or even
Sayanogorsk, which will 
become the capital of the new republic.... 

******

#10
Washington Post
February 21, 1999
[for personal use only]
Russian Military Decay Detailed
State Dept. Report Lists Poor Economy's Effects on Readiness
By Walter Pincus

An unusually detailed State Department report concludes that the Russian
military's combat readiness is in "rapid decay" and says an internal
assessment by the Russian Defense Ministry finds "the average Russian soldier
is only marginally combat capable."
Although the Russian military's decline in recent years has been extensively
chronicled, the State Department report, handed to Congress Friday, was
described by a congressional arms expert as the most comprehensive recent
unclassified summary of the Russian collapse he has seen, reflecting data in
secret intelligence reports.
Because of severe economic problems within the Russian government, the study
said, military expenditures in the first nine months of 1998 were only two-
thirds of what was budgeted. As a result, training exercises in the Russian
army, navy and air force have been sharply curtailed and "combat training has
become virtually non-financed," according to the report. Sea duty for Russian
submarines has been reduced by 25 percent and that for surface ships by 33
percent, it added, while the Russian air force in 1998 did only 15 to 40
percent of normal flying to train.
Ruble devaluation has further reduced the military's spending power and left
the Defense Ministry with debt of about 60 billion rubles, or roughly $9
billion. Of that amount, some $2.5 billion is in back pay to active duty and
retired servicemen.
"The Russian military situation is worse than ever," the expert said.
The State Department report went to Capitol Hill at the same time that two
high-level U.S. delegations headed to Moscow for negotiations aimed at
reducing the nuclear arms threats of both countries. One group, headed by
Pentagon officials, is continuing talks on a joint Russian-U.S. early warning
system to prevent accidental launch of strategic weapons. The other, headed by
Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, will discuss what may be done
pending Russian ratification of the START II arms reduction treaty and U.S.
plans to explore a minimal missile defense system.
The rapid decline in Russian strategic delivery systems is part of the
discussions in both groups, sources said.
One sign of how the financial problems affect reducing the size of the armed
forces is the ministry's failure to pay severance, housing costs, pensions and
relocation expenses to those who retire. An attempt to give retirees a
government promissory note, called a housing certificate, to help pay civilian
rents was halted in August 1998 after only 13,000 of the promised 42,000
certificates were issued.
The roughly $300 million worth of certificates -- which were supposed to
cover
80 percent of an ex-soldier's rent -- now have what the report called
"dubious" value since the ruble devaluation.
"It's amazing the military has not exploded," a White House defense expert
said. He noted, as does the State Department analysis, that several attempts
in the past two years to organize the military into opposition movements "have
fizzled . . . and have had negligible impact on Russia's political order."
Largely because of the financial crisis, military reform programs have been
postponed. The most important plan, to change from a conscript to an all-
contract armed force, has been delayed "until well into the next decade," the
report said.
Meanwhile, the decline in military living standards has put the military "at
the low end of the country's economic scale." In 1998, the government was
three to four months behind in paying salaries. The low living standard
contributed to "increase in crime, particularly theft, and corruption in the
armed forces, as well as to suicides among service members and widespread
evasion of military service."
The State Department study pointed out that procurement of equipment also is
being delayed and "defense orders will meet only the most urgent
requirements." In that category, however, the Russian strategic rocket forces,
which tend land-based nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles, are
"foremost" on the list.
Of the 10,000 Russian soldiers deployed abroad in United Nations
peacekeeping
roles, only those in Bosnia are funded in the Russian military defense budget.
Moscow's battalion in Croatia is subsidized by the United Nations, and other
units in former Soviet states, such as Georgia, Moldova and Armenia, get their
salaries from Russia but get subsidies from the host governments.
In the future, according to Moscow, all peacekeeping missions would be
assigned first to airborne forces and then to special ground units in order to
keep them, like the strategic rocket forces, in better fighting condition than
the rest of the services.

******

#11
Boston Glove
21 February 1999
[for personal use only]
Who really lost Russia? 
By Sam Allis, Globe Staff

On slow afternoons, American foreign policy mandarins are fond of playing
their favorite parlor game: Who lost Russia?
The question is rhetorical; someone in Washington obviously did. But just
who
should be drawn and quartered for the breathtaking mess that is Russia today?
George Bush? Warren Christopher? Strobe Talbott?
None of the above.
''Russia lost Russia,'' says Vladimir Ryzhkov, the impossibly young deputy
speaker of the Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament.
No American can utter those words without sounding self-serving. But this
crisp, bespectacled 32-year-old can. To be sure, the Clinton administration
and the International Monetary Fund should be chastised for not following the
paper trail of their money into Swiss bank accounts of the Russian oligarchs.
The corruption in Moscow today speaks to the naivete and insouciant lending
practices of the West.
But, stresses Ryzhkov, such failures pale compared to the culpability of
Russia itself in its own mismanagement. Russia brought about its own financial
and moral bankruptcy. This point appears obvious but increasingly is lost amid
the ugly Russian rhetoric building against the West.
Many Russians are loath to shoulder responsibility for the current mess, so
they blame foreign lenders, Jews, anyone they can think of. Beneath their
legendary stoicism is a sense of victimhood.
Boris Fyodorov, a reformer in eclipse who has served three times in the
Russian government since the fall of communism, says flatly that the West
would be out of its mind under current circumstances to give Moscow another
cent until the next presidential election, a long 17 months from now.
Better, says Boris Nemtsov, another reformer in winter, would be the
restructure by the international community of Russia's $150 billion foreign
debt. Above all, avoid bankruptcy.
But Russia, of course, is bankrupt now. It can't pay half the $17.5
billion in
interest due foreign lenders this year. The world prefers to maintain the
fiction that the Kremlin is still solvent because the alternative is too
scary. Score one for the Wizard of Oz.
Some Russians blithely suggest that the West dismiss the $100 billion in
foreign debt incurred during the Cold War. This is an arresting concept: Win
the war and then pay for it again. On the other hand, they ask, isn't it time
for an act of enlightened, albeit expensive, self interest to thwart the
fascist threats lurking in Russia today? Perhaps, but good luck with Jesse
Helms on that one.
All in all, the options at this point are horrendous. Russia is in far worse
shape than most of us in the West realize. Nemtsov, the most optimistic of
reformers, sees mere stagnation. Others like Ryzhkov and Fyodorov see
precipitous, systemic decline.
''It does not matter who becomes president in the year 2000,'' says Ryzhkov.
''The victor, gripping the scepter in his wearied hand, will face an
irreconcilable choice: carry out that which an alien parliament adopts or wage
a war of attrition with it.'' Even Nemtsov concedes, ''I don't think the year
2000 will lead to improvement.''
Ryzhkov argues that Russia must change its form of government to save
itself.
It must adopt a European model where the dominant parties within the Duma form
the government. Now, Russia's government is created at the whim of its
president - in this case Boris Yeltsin, at once moribund and erratic - without
regard to its legitimacy in the Duma.
But there is little enthusiasm there to enact such reforms while the
communist-led opposition can block programs with impunity. There is no
accountability in the Duma, notable because one must show identification to
leave the building as well as enter.
The reformers are trying to create a party to stand in the parliamentary
elections later this year - a tall task for a discredited group. Even if they
reach the 5-percent vote minimum required to sit in the Duma, their ability to
influence the legislative agenda will probably be small.
A potentially stronger bloc could emerge from Russia's vast regions, where
local strongmen for the first time are talking among themselves about
exploiting their combined political weight in Moscow.
''In two or three months, a new powerful movement may appear,'' says
Mintimer
Shaimiyev, the president of Tartarstan. ''This may be a movement of powerful
Russian regions which are also supporters of market reforms. It will be
composed of leaders who do not wish to be deputies or president of Russia.
However, they will be people who have not discredited themselves over the past
years.''
But will these local dictators, however benevolent, really embrace market
reform at their own expense?
Meanwhile, the communists show no signs of disappearing. While they
provide no
coherent alternative to Yeltsin, their ranks should grow if the situation
continues to deteriorate. ''They are like fleas,'' scoffs Nemtsov. ''They
increase with poverty.''
Prime Minister Yvgeny Primakov is now the clear favorite in next year's
presidential race. While he has done little to solve the crisis, experts give
him high marks simply for maintaining what little stability exists in the
current chaos. His new budget may be based on a laughable annual inflation
rate of 30 percent - a third of what many anticipate. But at least Russia has
a budget today.
Moscow Mayor Yuri Lushkov, the other front-runner, is an effective
autocrat in
his limited turf, as was former Chicago boss Richard Daley, to whom he is
often compared. But Luzhkov's ability to dance on the world stage remains
unknown. And former army general Alexander Lebed, another early pick, appears
flummoxed by his new challenges as governor of a vast Siberian region and has
faded from serious consideration.
Does Primakov have a master plan to rescue the country? No one knows. If he
does, experts agree, he would be foolish to show his hand now. And the man is
no fool.
''I know what his image is in the West,'' says Ryzhkov about the former KGB
spymaster. ''But you may look back on Primakov with nostalgia.''

*******

#12
Russia's elite flock to premiere of latest Mikhalkov film

MOSCOW, Feb 21 (AFP) - The cream of Moscow's political and artistic world
flocked to the Kremlin late Saturday for the world premiere of the latest film
by Russian director Nikita Mikhalkov, "The Barber of Siberia."
Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov and the last Soviet head of state Mikhail
Gorbachev -- who was warmly applauded by the audience -- took their seats
alongside American actresses Shirley MacLaine and Julia Ormond, the heroine of
the movie.
Strict security measures meant the public had to wait 40 minutes in the cold
outside the former congress hall of the Soviet Communist Party, transformed
into a 6,000-seat cinema for the occasion.
Moscovites, though somewhat divided in their feelings about Mikhalkov, were
drawn by an unprecedented massive publicity campaign to gather in front of the
hall.
The publicity included items in the media and posters on the walls of the
capital, as well as a religious service held Friday in Moscow in memory of the
130 Kremlin "junkers" killed by the Bolsheviks in 1917.
The theme of the "The Barber of Siberia" is a tragic love affair between a
junker, a military cadet played by Oleg Menshikov, star of Mikhalkov's "Burnt
by the Sun", and an American woman (Julia Ormond), in the peaceful reign of
Tsar Alexander III.
Several scenes, including a military parade, were filmed in the Kremlin
himself, thanks to the close links between Mikhalkov -- who took an evident
pleasure in playing the tsar -- and the government.
Addressing the audience, Mikhalkov once again denied rumours that he had
presidential ambitions, saying that "it is annoying when an artistic work is
treated as a political pehenomenon."
Mikhalkov said that "'The Barber of Siberia' is a film about love, about
dignity and about the Russia we had and which we have not lost." It deals with
"the preservation of the nation as a united whole."
Men as well as women burst into tears as the film was shown, but critics of
Mikhalkov were comforted in their view that his movies are destined for the
foreign market. 
"The Barber of Siberia" is a joint Franco-Russian production and nearly 70
percent of the dialogue is in English, which the director himself had to
translate.
Relatively few cinema goers are likely to see the film outside Moscow, with
the distribution network destroyed since the collapse of the Soviet Union and
many theatres unable to meet the technical requirements.
The giant gas company Gazprom, one of the investors in the movie, is
sending a
bus containing the necessary equipment to the remoter regions so that it can
be shown.
The premiere featured two giant Hermes silk scarves depicting scenes of
tsarist Russia, an exhibition of costumes worn by the imperial family, the
presentation of two perfumes conceived by Mikhalkov, and a massive firework
display. 

******

#13
Los Angeles Times
February 19, 1999 
[for personal use only]
NATO's New Members Will Want Allies to Hold the Line 
By DAVID HOLLEY, Times Staff Writer

WARSAW--With Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic set to join
NATO next month, a celebratory mood in these countries is tempered by their
determination that the alliance not weaken its ability to defend members as
it takes on new missions. 
The three nations will join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on March
12 during a ceremony at the Harry S. Truman Library in Independence, Mo.,
the city where President Truman announced in 1949 the formation of the
alliance to defend Western Europe against the Soviet Bloc. 
Original plans had called for the three countries to join at an April 24-25
summit in Washington pegged to the alliance's 50th anniversary. Early entry
means they will have time as full NATO states to weigh in on decisions due
to be ratified at the summit. 
It also means, many in this region say, that Russian officials can attend
the summit as guests without feeling forced to celebrate a NATO enlargement
that they bitterly opposed. 
"I don't believe Russia would come to celebrate the enlargement of NATO.
They will come to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the founding of NATO,"
explained Jaromir Novotny, deputy defense minister of the Czech Republic. 
Polish Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek, speaking in Parliament on Wednesday
before it overwhelmingly approved NATO membership, said joining the
alliance allows the nation to "overcome the geopolitical curse laid on us
since the 17th century." 
"Foreign armies marched through the Polish land from west to east and from
east to west," Buzek noted. "The divisions in Europe always weakened us. .
. . Poland in NATO, safe and stable, rooted in the Western tradition but
understanding the problems of the East, will be a country especially
striving for the unity and well-being of Europe as a whole." 
In Budapest, former Hungarian Foreign Minister Laszlo Kovacs said NATO
membership "does not mean we are going to win wars--it means that we are
going to avoid wars." 
Joining the alliance early, Novotny stressed, means the new members will be
"full partners in preparation of the new strategic concept of NATO," rather
than simply agreeing to something that others decided. 
The new members are concerned about NATO's shifting strategic
concepts--such as greater emphasis on peacekeeping operations in
Bosnia-Herzegovina and the strife-torn Yugoslav province of Kosovo--because
they fear any dilution of NATO's guarantees for the collective defense of
all members. 
"The most important thing is to maintain the military character of the
alliance and to maintain the meaning of Article 5 of the Washington Treaty,
which talks about defending the territory of the alliance," said Bronislaw
Komorowski, chairman of the National Defense Committee of the lower house
of Poland's Parliament. 
Defense of NATO countries from any attack should continue to be
"automatic"--and should aim to repel any invader at the border, Komorowski
said. Warsaw wants to be sure that NATO is committed to protect Poland's
eastern frontier, he stressed. 
The three new members are also worried about Russia's demands in ongoing
negotiations in Vienna to revise the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe
Treaty. Komorowski expressed fear that Moscow may win concessions favorable
to it while imposing lower limits on the military strength of the new NATO
members. 
The Vienna talks are not officially tied to NATO enlargement. However, the
Russians believe that the negotiations have at least de facto links because
Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic are now adding their military weight
to the West. The former Soviet Bloc states argue that while they have
voluntarily reduced the size of their armies below levels allowed under the
1990 treaty, they should maintain the right to increase their forces back
to the pact's existing ceilings, Novotny said. 
While Komorowski did not hide his concern about Russia's continued military
strength, most officials in this region go out of their way to stress that
NATO's expansion is not anti-Russia. 
"I'd like to say clearly that we are not entering NATO in fear of anyone,"
Buzek said in a typical comment downplaying any threat from Russia. 
While governments of the new member states are trying hard not to
antagonize Moscow, the vast majority of officials and ordinary citizens
view Russia's bitter objections to enlargement as a dead issue. "It's done,
it's finished," Novotny said. "They don't like it, but they have accepted
it." 

*******